Deal or No Deal: MLB Trade Predictions 1 Month from the Deadline
The July 31 MLB trade deadline is a little more than a month away, and rumors are wafting like barbecue vapors on the warm summer breeze.
As we plunge headlong into the speculation-and-swapping season, here are eight predictions for deals that will or won't go down based on the latest rumblings and some old-fashioned gut feeling.
Will they all prove correct? Probably not. Are they fun to ponder and debate? You bet.
Deal: Kansas City Royals Trade Lorenzo Cain to Los Angeles Dodgers
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At 37-37, the Kansas City Royals sit just 2.5 games out in the American League Central. As Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported June 1, the Royals would "love to see 'if they have one more run in them.'"
That said, the team has a cache of tradeable players, many of whom will be free agents after the season. Lorenzo Cain sits at, or near, the top of the list.
The 2015 All-Star and top-three AL MVP finisher is hitting .280 with 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases and has played plus defense in center field.
While any number of contenders could use a guy with that skill set, the Los Angeles Dodgers jump out.
Joc Pederson, L.A.'s center fielder, has swung well since returning from the disabled list June 13. During that stretch, the 25-year-old owns a .297 average with four home runs and seven extra-base hits.
Overall, though, Pederson is hitting .240 and was mostly anemic during the season's first two months.
There's uncertainty elsewhere in the outfield, with mercurial Yasiel Puig in right field and powerful rookie Cody Bellinger logging innings at first base because of Adrian Gonzalez's back injury.
After four straight division titles and nary a pennant, it's time for the Dodgers and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to raid the prospect vault and go all-in.
It could take a highly regarded chip such as outfielder Alex Verdugo to score Cain, even as a rental, but it's a price L.A. should be ready and willing to pay.
No Deal: Milwaukee Brewers Stand Pat
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Tip your cap to those pesky Milwaukee Brewers.
Dubbed a rebuilding also-ran by nearly everyone before the season, the Brewers are 41-37 entering play Monday, 2.5 games up on the defending champion Chicago Cubs in the National League Central.
Can it last? Maybe not. The Brewers' plus-13 run differential is easily the lowest of the Senior Circuit's three first-place teams. The Washington Nationals sit atop the NL East at plus-88, while the Dodgers pace the NL West at plus-138.
Even the Cubs, disappointing as they've been, are at plus-24.
None of that means Milwaukee can't compete. Any team that's above .500 and leading its division in late June is a contender by definition.
Still, while the also-ran label doesn't apply, the rebuilding one does. The Brewers could swing a deal for an ancillary bullpen arm, but don't expect them to mortgage the future and jettison top young pieces such as outfielder Lewis Brinson and Corey Ray or pitchers Josh Hader and Luis Ortiz.
At the same time, the Crew figures to keep possible veteran trade targets, including rehabbing franchise cornerstone Ryan Braun, in the hopes of extending this improbable run.
Deal: Oakland Athletics Trade Sonny Gray to Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros sit atop the American League West at an MLB-best 52-25. They've got questions in the starting rotation, however, with ace Dallas Keuchel on the disabled list.
The Oakland Athletics reside in the basement of the AL West at 34-42 and have an intriguing-if-flawed starter on the block in right-hander Sonny Gray.
It's no wonder, then, that the two sides are reportedly feeling each other out.
"The A's are following the Astros' system closely," Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe noted. "There's mutual interest in getting something done for Gray..."
Gray hasn't been great, as he's posted a 4.45 ERA across 64.2 innings. He has racked up 65 strikeouts in that time, however, and logged a seven-inning, seven-strikeout win in his most recent outing Sunday against the Chicago White Sox.
The 27-year-old is under team control through 2019, meaning he would come at a high cost despite his recent struggles and injury issues.
The 'Stros, however, are ready to make their move for AL supremacy and should dip into a farm system Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked No. 5 in the game.
No Deal: Pittsburgh Pirates Don't Find a Taker for Andrew McCutchen
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Once upon a time, not so long ago, Andrew McCutchen was a perennial MVP contender and squarely in the face-of-MLB conversation.
That was then, this is now.
McCutchen hasn't been awful this season. He's hitting .268 with 14 homers. However, as Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer pointed out in listing the Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder as a potentially toxic trade asset, "Whether you consult FanGraphs or Statcast, his hard contact rates are declining."
Add the 30-year-old's minus-12 defensive runs saved in center field, and it's clear we're looking at a once-great player on the downslope.
He's got a $14.75 million option and $1 million buyout for 2018, so he would technically be more than a rental. But unless the Bucs are planning to give him away (spoiler alert: they aren't) it's tough to imagine any buyer opening the prospect purse for McCutchen.
Deal: Chicago White Sox Trade Jose Quintana to Chicago Cubs
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We already mentioned the Cubs and their dispiriting second-place status. What are they going to do about it? Add starting pitching most likely.
Cubs starters own a middling 4.33 ERA collectively, "thanks" to bumpy performances from stalwarts Kyle Hendricks (4.09 ERA), Jake Arrieta (4.36 ERA) and John Lackey (4.74 ERA).
The team has other issues, but this might be the most glaring. As such, Chicago should move quickly and aggressively to address it.
Enter their neighbors to the south and specifically Chicago White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana.
Quintana's 4.69 ERA isn't up to his career standard, but the 28-year-old has won three of his last four decisions and sports a 2.25 ERA in June. Plus, he's inked to an affordable contract with club options through 2020.
The Cubs' system isn't as deep as it was before graduating a championship-winning raft of talent, but there are enough pieces to make a blockbuster happen. The rebuilding White Sox would surely covet a name such as outfielder Eloy Jimenez.
As David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune aptly put it in May: "It is as if the city's trade partners were brought together by BaseballMatch.com, with the only potential hang-up geography, hardly a good enough reason to avoid a connection that could create happiness on both sides of town."
No Deal: Toronto Blue Jays Keep Josh Donaldson
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At 36-39, the Toronto Blue Jays are in last place in the crowded AL East. So, naturally, they appear on the registry of potential deadline sellers.
The Jays may indeed shop some players, including outfielder Jose Bautista. It says here, however, that they'll keep their biggest prize, third baseman Josh Donaldson, for at least another half-season.
The 2015 AL MVP is among the game's best all-around players when right, but he's battled an array of injuries in 2017, including calf and knee problems. At age 31, that's what you call a red flag.
Donaldson is controlled through 2018, so even if the Jays' ultimate plan is to trade him, it makes sense to keep him for the second half and hope he gets healthy and hot.
If he does, he could propel Toronto back into postseason contention. At the very least, he would build his value for the winter hot-stove market.
Deal: San Francisco Giants Trade Johnny Cueto to New York Yankees
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The New York Yankees have lost eight of their last 10 and slipped into a tie with the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East.
The slide has coincided with some shaky starting pitching, and while it's not time to panic in the Bronx, pulses should be elevated.
Granted, New York is in the midst of an uncharacteristic "rebuild," with exciting young talent on the roster and more marinating in the minors.
At the same time, they're the Yankees. This team isn't about to give up on a race against the rival Red Sox in the heat of summer.
Expect them to go shopping for pitching, and keep your eyes on San Francisco Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto.
Cueto owns a 4.20 ERA through 16 starts, but the three-time All-Star is a dynamic, playoff-tested stud who would instantly and measurably improve the Yanks' October odds.
The 31-year-old Dominican has an opt-out in his contract after the season and is planning to exercise it, per Heyman.
The Giants, meanwhile, are on a 100-loss pace and would surely like to get something back in the way of MiLB talent before Cueto shimmies on to the open market.
No Deal: Miami Marlins Don't Trade Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich
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Here's another nugget from Cafardo, which is actually more of a bombshell: the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies connecting on a possible trade that would send outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich to the City of Brotherly Love.
"The Phillies have two things going in their favor now: money and prospects," Cafardo noted.
He's right. It would take a gargantuan package to net Stanton and Yelich, particularly within the division, but the Phils could theoretically put something together.
It would also take oodles of cash to cover Stanton's massive contract, assuming the Marlins weren't interested in covering part of it (a safe assumption). After shedding payroll, the Phillies could pull that off and take on Yelich's more-affordable pact, which runs through 2022 with a team option.
Here's the rub: Stanton has a full no-trade clause. He was raised in Southern California. Maybe he's so sick of the dysfunction in South Beach that he would accept a trade anywhere, including to face the boo birds at Citizens Bank Park.
Somehow, though, we doubt it.
All statistics and standings current as of Sunday and courtesy of MLB.com, FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.
