MLB Metrics 101: Your Team Should Run Away from These Top Trade Targets
If they haven't already, teams across Major League Baseball need to start looking for help on the summer trade market.
But which players would provide less help than expected? Sounds like a job for Bleacher Report's MLB Metrics 101.
Hello and welcome back. This week's topic covers 10 top trade targets prospective suitors should steer clear of in the weeks leading up to the July 31 deadline.
It can be hard to tell which players are trade candidates at any given moment, of course. But the players within are on teams that have reasonable cases to sell in the coming weeks.
As for what metrics (and contract details) cast these players in a negative light, it's a case-by-case basis. So going in order from least productive to most productive in 2017, let's get to it.
All stats current through Tuesday, June 20.
10. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 10
| RF | 2017* | -0.2 |
*With 2018/2019 options
The Toronto Blue Jays might not sell if they keep hanging around .500. But with the progress they made in a hot May now being wiped out in a cold June, it's a distinct possibility.
Between his short-term contract and slugging pedigree, Jose Bautista figures to be on the block if it does happen. And because of the latter, suitors could be willing to downplay the 36-year-old's .736 OPS and 12 home runs.
In the words of Iron Man: "Not a great plan."
Bautista's 13.3 BB% proves he still has a strong eye, but his swing has lost its thunder. His 31.1 Hard% (hard-hit percentage) is his lowest since 2009. And for what Statcast data there is, his percentages of "barrels" has been trending down since 2015.
In short, his bat is starting to look like an old man's bat. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, this is the third year in a row his glove has rated like an old man's glove.
Bautista isn't bringing much to the table anymore. Not many sluggers have been better than him in recent years, but plenty are better than him now.
Better Options: J.D. Martinez, Jay Bruce
9. Derek Holland, Chicago White Sox
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| SP | 2017 | -0.2 |
Initially, the Chicago White Sox seemed to have fixed Derek Holland.
But have they?
He's been cold in June, and it's pushed his ERA from 2.37 to 4.48. That's still not terrible by today's standards, but there aren't additional silver linings to be found in his peripherals.
Holland's per-nine rates (7.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and 1.9 HR/9) are all worse than the league-average rates for starting pitchers. The same goes for his 39.1 Hard%, which is well north of the norm of 32.7.
What's been keeping the 30-year-old afloat is a White Sox defense that's tied for third in defensive efficiency. And despite its reputation as a launching pad, fly balls haven't been traveling at Guaranteed Rate Field.
The benefit of the doubt that teams can give Holland is he's tailored his pitching style to his surroundings. But even if that's true, it's hard to say whether he could adjust for life elsewhere. He's never been a command artist, and now he doesn't throw as hard as he used to.
With just a $6 million salary to his name, a team wouldn't have to risk much to take a chance on Holland. But there would still hardly be any guarantee of a payoff.
Better Options: Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia, Clayton Richard
8. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
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| RP | 2018 | -0.1 |
Roughly a million relievers will be available in trades this summer. Due to his track record and his extra year of control, Kelvin Herrera will probably be one of the hottest names out there.
But how much should teams read into his 4.66 ERA?
It can be downplayed to a certain extent. ERA isn't the best stat for judging relievers. And with a 9.0 K/9, a 1.6 BB/9 and an average fastball of 97.5 miles per hour, the Kansas City Royals right-hander still bears some marks of a dominant reliever.
However, he's also allowed seven home runs in only 29 innings. Only one of those was a cheapie, and it's notable that three have come against his slider. That pitch just hasn't been there for him. After batting .133 against it last year, hitters are batting .333 against it this year.
Maybe that can be fixed, but the fact that there is a "maybe" makes Herrera more of a reclamation project than a tried-and-true relief ace. That's problematic for suitors, as the Royals are sure to use the 27-year-old's extra year of control to draw a hard line with their price tag.
So rather than spring for Herrera, teams should pursue better options.
Better Options: David Robertson, Brad Hand, Pat Neshek, Sean Doolittle, et al.
7. Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
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| SP | 2019 | 0.1 |
Like the Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays are hanging around .500. But also like the Blue Jays, a general lack of traction could force the Rays into becoming pragmatic sellers at the trade deadline.
If that happens, teams will be after their starters. That includes Jake Odorizzi, who has two extra years of control and owns a 3.78 ERA in 69 innings this season.
However, his ERA is 1.54 runs lower than his FIP. That most basic of measures suggests Odorizzi has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball. That's easy to believe for two reasons: his 7.7 K/9 is worse than average and his 2.0 HR/9 is way worse than average.
To boot, Odorizzi's home run rate gets even worse away from Tropicana Field's power-suppressing environment. There, he has a 1.8 HR/9. Elsewhere, he has a 2.2 HR/9.
Coincidentally, one of the 27-year-old's defining characteristics is his ultra-low ground-ball percentage. He's a fly-ball pitcher, which is a bad thing to be at a time when MLB is in the midst of a fly-ball revolution that, as Ben Lindbergh and Mitchel Lichtman found at The Ringer, may be getting a boost from juiced balls.
So Odorizzi isn't just a guy with bad peripherals. He's the wrong guy at the wrong place at the wrong time.
Better Options: Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole
6. Matt Kemp, Atlanta Braves
5 of 10
| LF | 2019 | 0.4 |
Matt Kemp has found new life with the Atlanta Braves, posting an .884 OPS and slugging 23 home runs in 115 games.
Yet he produced zero WAR as a Brave last year and is up to just 0.4 WAR this season despite his .912 OPS. And nobody should be surprised.
The days of Kemp's being a great all-around player remain firmly in the past. The 32-year-old is a bat-only player who would fit best as an everyday designated hitter on an American League club.
And even then, questions would remain.
With just a 6.3 BB% to his name, Kemp's walk habit is past its prime. With a 21.4 K%, he's also just OK at avoiding strikeouts. His power is his one standout tool, and the data shows it's aging a lot better than Bautista's. But power alone isn't too valuable in today's power-rich environment. And the warning with Kemp's is that it comes and goes.
Further, Kemp is owed $21.75 million per year through 2019. According to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves are on the hook for about $18 million annually. They'll surely look to offload the bulk of that in a trade.
To be fair, Kemp fits well on the Braves. But elsewhere? Not as much.
Better Options: Martinez, Bruce
5. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
6 of 10
| CF | 2017* | 0.4 |
*With 2018 option
This may have been a no-brainer as recently as mid-May, but that's when Andrew McCutchen turned it on.
The Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder is a .345 hitter with a 1.037 OPS over his last 26 games. He also finished strong last year, so maybe it's his slow start this year that's the anomaly?
It's possible. But also, a bit of a leap.
In producing minus-0.3 WAR, McCutchen has been downright bad over the last two seasons. And while he's clearly not broken as a hitter, his dominance is diminished. Whether you consult FanGraphs or Statcast, his hard contact rates are declining. Even his recent hot streak reeks of good luck.
Meanwhile, McCutchen's poor ratings on defense this year don't support the notion that his poor defensive showing in 2016 was caused by bad positioning. Even if a team is a believer in his bat, it would have to take care not to place too much faith in his 30-year-old legs.
There's also the matter of his price tag. The Pirates will no doubt count his $14.75 million option for 2018 as an extra year of control and jack up his price accordingly.
Just another reason for teams to pass on the former MVP.
Better Options: Lorenzo Cain
4. Howie Kendrick, Philadelphia Phillies
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| UTIL | 2017 | 0.8 |
The chance the Philadelphia Phillies took on Howie Kendrick over the winter is one of few things that's working out for them in 2017.
The 33-year-old veteran is putting a rough 2016 behind him by batting .339 with an .866 OPS. And while he's mainly played left field, he's also continued to play some second base.
However, the defensive metrics allow for debate as to whether Kendrick is a good defender at either position. He may only be passable. If so, that places extra emphasis on a bat that's been a little too hot in 2017.
Kendrick is suddenly no longer a good contact hitter, and his power is still underwhelming. That points to his .430 batting average on balls in play as the key to his survival.
BABIP usually is Kendrick's jam, but typically not to this degree. As time goes on, the 54-point difference between his expected batting average and actual batting average should level out. Once it does, Kendrick's main value source will be gone.
Because Kendrick is playing well so far, the Phillies would presumably have it in mind to offload his $10 million salary and get something in return for him. No team should rush to meet these demands.
Better Options: Zack Cozart, Jed Lowrie, Yangervis Solarte
3. Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
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| SP | 2017 | 0.8 |
Alex Cobb is having a solid season with a 4.05 ERA and 93.1 innings through 15 starts. Factor in his modest $4.2 million salary, and the Rays could market him as an affordable back-end guy if they decide to sell.
But naturally, not all is as it seems.
Cobb has a 4.73 ERA on the road, compared to 3.15 at home. Tropicana Field is a pitchers' park, after all, and the right-hander's act isn't made to travel well. He's a below-average strikeout artist with a 6.4 K/9, and he's rocking a career-worst 39.3 Hard%.
Cobb was better at missing bats once, but that was when his split-change was a signature pitch. He's since decreased his use of it and admitted he's struggled to find the feel for it he had before his Tommy John operation in 2015.
"Going into Tommy John surgery, you hear that the overall feel of pitches comes back slowly, and the changeup is usually the last one to come back," he told FanGraphs' David Laurila.
A revitalized pitcher awaits any team that can help Cobb rediscover his split-change. But with his free agency just months away, that project could take more time than what's available.
Better Options: Volquez, Cahill
2. Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies
9 of 10
| SP | 2017 | 0.9 |
Calling Jeremy Hellickson a "top" trade candidate could be a stretch. But he does remain a solid workhorse with 84 innings pitched in 15 starts. So, perhaps suitors could be willing to downplay his 4.61 ERA.
They shouldn't, though.
When the Phillies right-hander posted a 3.71 ERA last year, he did so with a passable 7.3 K/9 and much-improved contact management. Neither of those things is there in 2017.
The right-hander's 4.1 K/9 is on track to be the lowest for any qualified starter since Henderson Alvarez's 3.8 K/9 in 2012. And unlike Alvarez, Hellickson isn't a ground-ball artist. He's working a 43.3 fly-ball percentage, up from 34.4 last year. In feeding a 1.7 HR/9, that isn't helping a home run suppression habit that wasn't strong to begin with.
In theory, getting the 30-year-old out of Citizens Bank Park could help quell that problem. But to really widen his margin for error, his new club would have to find his missing fastball.
"I think that the life of my fastball is not where it was," he said recently, per Julia B. Poe of Philly.com, "it's just coming out a little different."
Even if the Phillies were to eat Hellickson's $17.2 million salary, there would be no guarantee of his living up to the trade cost.
Better Options: Edinson Volquez, Trevor Cahill
1. Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
10 of 10
| 1B | 2017 | 1.1 |
Eric Hosmer was struggling in April. But he's gotten red-hot with a .949 OPS since the beginning of May and is currently the people's choice for the American League's All-Star first baseman.
Now comes the bucket of cold water.
This series has already made the case that Hosmer is a bigger star than he deserves to be. He's probably not as good a defender as his reputation suggests. And with just a .767 career OPS, he's not much of a hitter.
Obviously, Hosmer can get hot. But with his high peaks come deep valleys. His notorious tendency toward ground balls is no help in that regard. Grounders account for 53.3 percent of his career batted balls, and he has just a .512 OPS on those. And nothing is changing so far in 2017.
Yet Hosmer told Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star that changing his swing is "something that I can’t worry about." He may not be receptive to new ideas on a new team. And even if he was, said new team would have limited time to implement them before free agency comes for Hosmer this winter.
And despite his rental status, the Kansas City Royals won't be eager to part with him. Among their many upcoming free agents, Hosmer's the one the Royals "most want to sign long term," according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Trading him would throw a wrench in those gears.
High price? Flawed player? Better let this one slide.
Better Options: Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier
Data courtesy of Baseball Reference (including WAR), FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus and Brooks Baseball.
