Buying or Selling the Latest NFL Offseason Buzz

Oh, how we love NFL offseason buzz.

Look, I get it. There isn't any football to watch, so it's easy to grasp onto stories and rumors this time of year. The problem is that offseason buzz is purely a product of the media—which is working with limited access, watching guys in shorts and being fed soundbites from coaches.

However, there is a lot of important stuff going on too. I can tell you that firsthand as a former player and scout. We're just not going to get a lot of insight into what's really going on by watching guys stretching or having a catch before practice. If we're going purely by the buzz, everything is positive, every player is a Pro Bowler and the league is filled with 32 Super Bowl contenders.

Seriously, I challenge you to find a truly negative story about a player on the field that doesn't involve a few errant passes or a guy skipping OTAs. Should I join the circus and heap praise upon every shiny toy teams have on their rosters right now? Nah, I don't think I'm going to sell my soul to the media devil quite yet.

What I am going to do is try to cut through the smoke and give you an honest opinion on some of the latest offseason buzz.

Bortles and Osweiler Look Improved: Buy

John Raoux/Associated Press

I'm an ex-quarterback, so let's get this thing started with some QB talk.

I grew up in a house full of quarterbacks. Mechanics, throwing motion and how guys throw the ball were regular topics of conversation at the dinner table.

I'm passionate about the technical aspects of being a quarterback, and I still work with high school and college kids to this day. This is why I find it interesting that Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles and Cleveland Browns quarterback Brock Osweiler are being praised for improved mechanics this offseason.

Bortles is heading into his fourth year, and he's been all over the place mechanically to this point. He completed just 58.9 percent of his passes last season and 58.6 percent of them the year before. He has a big arm, but he's so inconsistent. Why? He's just not a natural thrower.

Bortles has a long throwing motion. It's not quite on a Tim Tebow level, but it's close. Osweiler isn't too much better. He completed a whole 59.0 percent of his passes last season.

Based on the clips I've seen, though, these guys do look to have improved their mechanics this offseason.

The problem for these guys is that it's rare when a player successfully changes his mechanics at the NFL level. Steve Young did it. Tom Brady found ways to tinker with his throwing motion later in his career.

Usually, though, it doesn't happen.

So, yeah, I'll buy that Bortles and Osweiler look better right now. They should. They're playing without pads, without a pass rush, and they have nothing to think about except their mechanics. Let's see if they can keep it up in actual games when they're calling protections, dodging defenders and having to get back into their "proper" throwing form to deliver the ball.

I have my doubts that the offseason improvement will transfer to in-season production, but I buy that they look better in June than they did last season.

Kellen Moore Is a Quality Backup: Sell

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The Dallas Cowboys are trying to convince anyone they can that Kellen Moore is a quality backup.

"[We] have all the confidence in the world," Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan said of Moore, per Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News.

Good for you. I'm just not buying the idea that Moore can get the job done if Dak Prescott suffers a significant injury this season. When Moore saw extended action in 2015, he completed just 58.7 percent of his passes and tossed four touchdowns with seven turnovers.

That is the only regular-season experience Moore has. He's a 6'0", 200-pound below-average athlete without a strong arm and lacking experience. What about that is comforting if you're a Cowboys fan? 

This is a case of a team putting too much stock into what a guy has done in the meeting room.

The Cowboys are a Super Bowl-caliber team, and they're taking a big risk by rolling with Moore as the backup. The New England Patriots weren't willing to marginalize their backup spot, so why is Dallas?

The team missed the boat on Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown. Now the Cowboys are probably trying to convince themselves they'll be OK with Moore should Prescott unfortunately miss extended time.

They won't be OK. Their season will be lost.

The Falcons Are over Their Super Bowl Hangover: Buy

John Bazemore/Associated Press

The Atlanta Falcons could be looking at a lost season if they let the aftermath of their Super Bowl loss get to them.

We saw it with the Carolina Panthers last year when the team dropped to 6-10. We saw it a couple of years ago with the Seattle Seahawks, who haven't quite been the same since a certain decision to pass the ball.

The Falcons insist they're over it.

"When we started as a team in April, we got together before that as players down in Miami. It was time to move on. It was time to look forward," quarterback Matt Ryan explained, per D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

This sounds like typical player talk. Yet, I can buy it because the most polarizing figure from that collapse—offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan—is gone.

Shanahan is the easiest person for Atlanta to blame for the loss in Super Bowl LI. The team didn't go out of its way to defend him, and I can tell you that players would be looking at him in practices with resentment. That's just human and NFL tendency.

Shanahan would be a constant reminder of that devastating loss. This may be the situation with Darrell Bevell in Seattle—and perhaps why there has been talk of discontent with the Seahawks.

Shanahan is gone, though. The Falcons are moving into a new stadium. The players are ready to move on.

The Jets Have an Open Quarterback Competition: Sell

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The New York Jets have another open quarterback competition this offseason.

Sure they do.

My belief is that veteran Josh McCown is the leader in the clubhouse. Everything I've heard suggests he's been the most consistent quarterback in workouts and that, barring injury, he's the clear front-runner for the starting job.

Yet, head coach Todd Bowles insists young quarterbacks Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg have equal opportunities to win the job.

Of course he says that. What the heck else is he supposed to say? The Jets can't discount guys they've spent high draft picks on. Petty and Hackenberg were selected by general manager Mike Maccagnan, and Bowles would be stupid to say they have no chance at the starting job.

This is how NFL politics work. Bowles can't make his people look bad, and the media isn't going to ask him to—even when we're hearing reports about media members being hit with passes in practices.

I'm not buying for a second that this is an open competition, though. It's McCown's job, and he'll have to do something horrible in camp to lose it.

DeVante Parker, Sterling Shepard and Martavis Bryant Look Amazing: Buy

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Three wide receivers stand out this offseason: DeVante Parker of the Miami Dolphins, Sterling Shepard of the New York Giants and Martavis Bryant of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

"[Shepard] was the Giants' most improved player this spring," Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com wrote.

"I really think he'll have a great, big year—a gigantic year for us," Dolphins offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said of Parker, per James Walker of ESPN.com.

"He looks like a stud, as usual, so we're excited for him to be on the field this year and help us out," Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said of Bryant, per Brian Batko of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

I buy that these three receivers have been awesome in offseason workouts, and I can buy that they're going to be great in 2017.

Shepard has gotten an opportunity to improve his game with Odell Beckham Jr. out of OTAs. He's run routes he probably didn't before, and he's gotten more looks as the go-to guy. This will make him a better player this season. With Beckham and now Brandon Marshall taking attention away from Shepard, he could be poised for some big games.

Let's keep it simple with Bryant. He's one of the most physically gifted athletes—not just receivers, but athletes—in the NFL. He's 6'4" and runs the 40 in 4.27 seconds. He's a Randy Moss-type freak, and he has Roethlisberger throwing him the football. Bryant should look scary to opposing defenses with Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell also commanding attention.

Parker hasn't quite lived up to draft expectations yet, but he's poised to do so this season. This will be his second year playing under Adam Gase, a guy who knows how to feature No. 1 receivers. At 6'3" and with 4.4 speed, Parker is a No. 1 receiver. He'll also have fellow wideout Jarvis Landry and bruising running back Jay Ajayi beside him.

Each of these three receivers has the potential to tear up the league in 2017. So yeah, I'm buying the buzz.

Jared Goff Is More Comfortable in the Offense: Buy

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff struggled as a rookie. He completed 54.6 percent of his passes and posted a passer rating of 63.6. However, he seems to be grasping the new offense under head coach Sean McVay.

I can buy that. Goff is a smart kid. He went to Cal. He shouldn't have much trouble grasping an offense in his second NFL offseason. I can buy the idea that Goff will be a lot better in 2017 too.

He has a legitimate offensive mind guiding him, and he will be surrounded with more talent than he was last year after the Rams added tight end Gerald Everett and wideouts Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds in the 2017 draft. The team also added wide receiver Robert Woods in free agency.

The Rams offense was the worst in the NFL last year by a large margin. L.A. averaged 262.7 yards per game, while the 31st-ranked San Francisco 49ers averaged 308.1.

Some of this was a result of a poor supporting cast around Goff. Some may have been due to coordinator Rob Boras, who's now with Buffalo.

Goff is probably picking things up well, and it's hard to imagine he'll perform worse than he did a year ago. These aren't my concerns with him. I don't question Goff's football IQ or his physical traits. I question his ability to be a leader and the way he presents himself on the field.

Goff looked lost much of the time in 2016. He seemed scared in games and uncertain of himself in press conferences after them. Grasping the offense and performing better is a good start, but Goff also needs to start showing some toughness and leadership ability if he's going to be a franchise quarterback.

Adrian Peterson Is Poised to Bounce Back: Sell

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

Adrian Peterson has looked awesome in offseason workouts. The New Orleans Saints believe he is ready for a bounce-back season, and so does Peterson.

"I've lost nothing," he said, per Albert Breer of The MMQB.

Really? How could anyone possibly know? Peterson, 32, carried the ball 37 times for 72 yards before suffering a mostly season-ending injury last season. He's only played 20 games of a possible 48 over the last three seasons. We can't even know how to accurately judge how much he has or hasn't lost.

I don't care if Peterson looks great right now. You mean to tell me that one of the most physically gifted players in league history looks great in non-contract drills in June? No s--t. He should. This doesn't mean he's going to have a great 2017 season.

Look, I'm not trying to challenge one of the three greatest running backs of all time. I have tremendous respect for Peterson, and I'm definitely not going to doubt him. Heck, I'm rooting for him. I just can't buy the idea that some nifty plays without pads means Peterson is poised to take over the league again.

This is one of the most physical backs we've ever seen, and his time in the NFL has taken a toll. Can he take hits, pound the ball and stay healthy with consistency? Let me see him play 10 games for the Saints before telling me he's back.

Don't tell me that in June.

Patriots Have Won the Offseason: Buy

Steven Senne/Associated Press

The New England Patriots do things differently than every other team in the NFL. I saw it when I was a scout there, and we've all seen it on the field. The results speak for themselves. The Patriots have won two Super Bowls in three years, and they're poised to win another in 2017.

The buzz is the Patriots have won the offseason. Hell yeah they've won the offseason. It might be more accurate to say the other 31 teams lost the offseason. I'll definitely buy that idea.

Teams need to realize that dealing with the Patriots is stupid. Stop giving New England players! If Bill Belichick has a weakness it's in drafting and in evaluating college talent. So what did teams do this offseason? They allowed Belichick to avoid the draft and gave him players like Kony Ealy, Brandin Cooks, Dwayne Allen and Mike Gillislee.

New England also signed free agents like Stephon Gilmore, Lawrence Guy and Rex Burkhead. They managed to retain linebacker Dont'a Hightower for less than $10 million a year. They avoided losing Malcolm Butler too.

Again, this is a team that has won two Super Bowls in three years. The moves the Pats made this offseason lead me to believe they're going to win the real season as well. I know it sucks for the other 31 teams to hear it, but they're the ones who let this happen.

Jadeveon Clowney Can Be the Face of Houston's Defense: Buy

Sam Craft/Associated Press

J.J. Watt is going to lose his place as the face of the Houston Texans defense, and Jadeveon Clowney is ready to step in.

There has been a lot of buzz surrounding Clowney as he prepares for his fourth NFL season. His defensive line coach has even talked about him as a future Hall of Famer. I'm buying every ounce of the buzz.

Casual fans probably think Clowney is about to fully arrive. I'm here to tell you he already has. You might not have seen it in his stat line last year—52 tackles, 6.0 sacks and a forced fumble—but Clowney is a truly disruptive player. As is the case with guys like Michael Bennett and Aaron Donald, Clowney's stats may never do him justice.

There isn't a statistic to measure how often a player shoves an offensive lineman into the face of a quarterback or how many times he runs five yards into the backfield to disrupt a play. These are things Clowney does on a regular basis.

Clowney is now the best player on Houston's defense. Vince Wilfork once told me he's one of the greatest players he's ever been around. Soon he may be considered one of the best defenders in the NFL. If I had a vote, he would have been my defensive MVP last season.

Look, I love Watt, but we have to be honest: He only played three games last season. He's coming off another severe back injury. There's no telling how long he can play at a high level. Clowney is ready to play at a high level for the foreseeable future—and yes, he's ready to take over as the face of the Texans defense.