NFL Draft 2017: Burning Questions Surrounding This Year's Draft Class
The NFL draft is nearly upon us, and there are still numerous questions surrounding this crop of prospects. After the No. 1 overall selection (presumably Myles Garrett), the entire draft is up in the air. Three quarterbacks will likely come off the board in the first round, but the order and the names are yet to be determined.
What makes this class so fascinating is the overall depth. It's possible that 45 to 50 different names could be considered in the first round. There are numerous big-name players with off-field issues who could fall, as well as prospects who are injured entering the draft.
With that said, here are the top 10 burning questions as we enter the 2017 NFL draft.
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Where Will Patrick Mahomes Be Selected?
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Mitchell Trubisky is the favorite to be the first quarterback selected, but after him it's a crapshoot. One of the names that has been picking up steam throughout the draft process is Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes.
According to Eric Galko of Sporting News, not only is Mahomes the No. 1 quarterback prospect for the Chicago Bears, but there are also reportedly numerous teams that have him as their top QB, per Galko.
Mahomes comes from an Air Raid offense, and that type of quarterback typically hasn't had sustained success in the NFL. However, Mahomes may have the most gifted arm in the class. At the combine, he registered the highest velocity of all quarterbacks at 60 mph. While that alone does not predict success, it does show just how strong his arm is.
His biggest flaw is his decision-making. Like Johnny Manziel, Mahomes is always looking for the big, explosive play. He will often pass up safe throws to take chances downfield. That works in college because the defenses are much slower than those in the NFL. But in the pros, it's a recipe for disaster.
Where Mahomes goes is uncertain. But with his talent, and as underwhelming as some of the other quarterbacks are, he's likely to come off the board within the top 15 picks. His draft floor may be the Browns at No. 12 if they miss out on Trubisky.
Where Will Joe Mixon Be Selected?
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Joe Mixon is one of the most controversial players in this draft class. By now, everyone knows his story. He was arrested in 2014 on a misdemeanor charge of acts resulting in gross injury after he punched a woman in the face at a cafe. He was suspended for the entire 2014 season and received probation, 100 hours of community service and counseling in a plea deal.
On the field, Mixon's talent is undeniable. In 12 games last season, he accounted for 1,812 yards from scrimmage on just 224 touches. Mixon is a game-breaker, and at 6'1", 226 pounds, he has the size to be an every-down back in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, Mixon forced a missed tackle once for every 3.9 offensive touches.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported last Tuesday that Mixon was sliding, while NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah believes he is going in the second round.
While his stock is up in the air, Mixon will likely be selected early in the second round because he's so talented. If it weren't for the off-field issues, Mixon might have been regarded the best offensive player in the draft.
What Position Should Jabrill Peppers Play?
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One of the more well-known players in this class is Michigan's Jabrill Peppers. Once thought of as a top-five pick by some media outlets, Peppers has seen his stock jump all over the place, as teams aren't sure where his best position is in the NFL.
Just this week, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that Peppers failed a drug test at the combine with a "diluted sample." While that may drop him a little come draft day, the bigger question will be what position he plays.
At 5'11", 213 pounds, Peppers was asked to play linebacker for the Wolverines in 2016 after playing safety in 2015. He wound up having a successful season as a linebacker, as he was one of the finalists for the Heisman Trophy. However, Peppers' college success has been picked apart since the season has finished. Peppers ended his career with just two total turnovers.
His lack of turnover production and small frame have caused some to wonder where he might best fit position-wise in the NFL. Peppers has said himself that at least one team wants to play him on offense.
However, his best spot in the NFL is as a strong safety who can be used as the nickel defender when teams go to three-receiver sets. Peppers is explosive and could act like a run-and-chase linebacker on a team that uses a true in-the-box safety.
The over-correction on Peppers has gone too far, as he's still one of the top 25 players in this draft. While he doesn't fit every team in the NFL, he is still likely to go in the first round because of everything he can bring to a team.
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Who Is the Dak Prescott of This Draft Class?
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One of the biggest questions surrounding this draft class is finding the "next Dak Prescott." While Prescott ended up winning rookie of the year honors and made the Pro Bowl, that's not necessarily what teams are expecting and looking for in the middle rounds. What teams will be searching for is a quarterback who could step in and produce without having to spend a top pick on said player.
There are a few candidates who could fit into that category. The most popular pick to be the next Prescott is another SEC quarterback: Tennessee's Josh Dobbs. He talked about the comparison in a piece with Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier:
"The whole Dak conversation is pretty interesting. If you look at what was said about Dak when he was going through the same process as me, it was similar stuff. 'Can he make the transition? He can run and pass, but can he throw from the pocket?'
Then Dak had the season he had; now they're praising him. They're saying, 'We knew from the beginning that he was going to be so great, a prototypical quarterback.' No, that's not what you were saying. A year ago, you didn't think he would ever be in the NFL. I just sit back and laugh.
I know people have to play the comparison game. But I just take it with a grain of salt. I'm just trying to be the best Josh Dobbs I can be.
"
Dobbs has the athletic ability to make plays when plays break down and the quick release to get the ball to his skill players. Dobbs isn't going to challenge defenses down the field, but he has the short-to-intermediate accuracy to be a decent starter as a rookie.
Another name that could make sense for a team late is Mississippi's Chad Kelly. If not for off-the-field struggles, Kelly might have been a first-round pick in this draft class. If he were to be forced into action as a rookie, he could perform well, as he has a fearless mentality and a cannon for an arm.
Is Christian McCaffrey Worth a Top-10 Selection?
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Stanford's Christian McCaffrey is one of the hottest names in the draft, and his stock has risen drastically since the end of the college football season. McCaffrey was once thought of as the clear third running back after Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook, but now he's starting to get buzz as a potential top-10 selection, per Peter Schrager of Fox Sports.
While he may go in the top 10, that doesn't mean he's worth that selection. Since 1990, there have been only three running backs selected inside the top 10 who have weighed under 210 pounds. The three players are C.J. Spiller (2010), Reggie Bush (2006) and Blair Thomas (1990). At 5'11", McCaffrey weighs in at 202 pounds.
Using Spotrac's draft tracker, we can see that the 10th overall selection in the 2017 draft will have a projected contract of four years for over $16 million with more than $10 million guaranteed. That means that if McCaffrey or any running back were to be selected inside the top 10, they would be in the top seven of their position in guaranteed money.
Last year's fourth overall pick, Ezekiel Elliott, has the highest guaranteed total at the position, and he earned that contract without ever setting foot on the field. While it worked out for Dallas, that's not always true for every running back drafted in the top 10.
As special as McCaffrey is, he would need to be a top running back in the league right away to return value on a team's investment. At his size, he projects more as an offensive weapon than a true running back at the next level. He's not the type of guy you can hand the ball to 25 times a game. Instead, you have to find other ways to get him touches to help preserve his body.
As great as he is, the money says that he shouldn't be worth a top selection in this draft. In fact, no running back should go that high, as there are no Ezekiel Elliott-types in this class.
Who Will Be the Biggest Steal in the Draft?
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In almost every draft, there are one or two players who are selected on Day 3 of the draft who go on to make the Pro Bowl in their rookie seasons. In 2016, it was Dak Prescott, Jordan Howard and Tyreek Hill. While there may not be a franchise quarterback in every class, there will be playmakers who are available on the last day of the draft.
Baylor's Ishmael Zamora may be one of these, and he has a chance to be the biggest steal. He declared for the draft as a redshirt sophomore, partially due to off-the-field issues. He was suspended for the first three games of 2016 after he was charged with a Class C misdemeanor for kicking and beating his dog in June.
On the field, Zamora has the size, speed and natural ball skills to be a true No. 1 receiver in the NFL. At 6'4", 215 pounds, he reportedly ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.4-4.5 range to go along with a 40-inch vertical, per Baylor beat writer Tony Adame.
In terms of talent, Zamora reminds me of Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Martavis Bryant. Like Bryant, Zamora is best when he's used as a vertical threat down the field. He's just too big and fast for most cornerbacks to handle alone.
Aside from his off-the-field issues, Zamora needs a ton of refinement as a receiver. Baylor's offense doesn't ask its receivers to run many complex routes, and it usually takes some adjustment to get used to off coverage.
He doesn't have a lot of experience playing the position, as he started just eight games in his college career. His hands are also suspect, as he dropped 10 of his 73 catchable targets in 2016, according to Pro Football Focus.
Zamora will likely be a fourth- or fifth-round pick based mostly on his ceiling as an NFL receiver. He's going to require a lot of patience, as his development process could be a long one, but he's one of the few true No. 1 receiver prospects in this entire draft class.
Which Players Could Fall in Round 1?
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Every year, there are one or two players who are projected to be top picks who end up falling in the first round. In 2016, Myles Jack and Robert Nkemdiche each slid for separate reasons. Here is a list of the top three players who could fall on the first night of the draft:
1. Alabama LB Reuben Foster
Reuben Foster was once in play for the second pick in the draft, per B/R's Matt Miller, but his stock is slipping after being kicked out of the combine for arguing with a hospital worker and because he has a shoulder that may require a second surgery. On top of the injury, Foster failed a drug test at the combine as his urine sample was diluted. Foster isn't a sure-bet to be even the first linebacker selected and could see himself fall out of the first round completely.
2. Michigan State DL Malik McDowell
Malik McDowell is one of the most talented players in this entire draft class, and that's why he will be in attendance for the first night of the NFL draft. However, we've seen players who were at the draft fall into the second day. According to Eric Galko, McDowell is a "doubtful first-round pick" as there are too many questions surrounding his character.
3. Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer
Like McDowell, Kizer has been invited to the NFL draft, and he will be in attendance along with his head coach, Brian Kelly. But Kizer seems like he will be the fourth quarterback drafted at best, and that could come in the second round.
Who Is the Best Offensive Lineman in This Draft?
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Finding a consensus on the best offensive lineman in this class is difficult as it's one of the weakest groups in recent memory. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah recently spoke with an NFL offensive line coach who called this year's crop of blockers the worst he's seen in 15 years, according to Philly.com's Paul Domowitch.
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller has Western Kentucky's Forrest Lamp as his top offensive lineman, while NFL.com has Wisconsin's Ryan Ramczyk as his top blocker. What is clear is that it will be anyone's guess as to who will actually be selected first.
Lamp is my top offensive lineman, as he has the fewest flaws. Lamp may not be a left tackle in the NFL, but he can likely play the other four positions, all at a high level. Much like Dallas Cowboys' Zack Martin, Lamp is a plug-and-play starter at guard and could play right tackle in a pinch if needed.
Lamp has shown that he can handle some of the best pass-rushers in college football, such as when he took on Tim Williams and Jonathan Allen in the team's matchup with Alabama. His feet, combined with his toughness, will allow him to play any position on the offensive line. He should be the first offensive lineman selected in the draft.
Where Do the Injured Players Go?
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This class is littered with players who have either gotten hurt while in college or have injured themselves in predraft training. Identifying where these injured players will fall is one of the great mysteries of the draft. Here are my top five injured players and their projected rounds:
Western Michigan WR Corey Davis
Corey Davis hurt his ankle while working out in January, and it caused him to miss the combine and his pro day. However, he should be 100 percent healthy by training camp. While his talent is first-round worthy, not working out could cause him to slip on draft day. He's likely to come off the board at the end of the first round.
UCLA DE/OLB Takkarist McKinley
After the combine, UCLA's Takkarist McKinley opted to have shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum. The surgery makes him a question mark for the start of the season, but he's too talented a pass-rusher to fall out of the first round. Expect his floor to be pick No. 30 to the Steelers.
Michigan TE Jake Butt
Jake Butt tore his ACL in the team's bowl game, and it likely will drop him at least a round in the draft. Before the injury, he would've been competing with Evan Engram and Adam Shaheen to be the third tight end drafted. Now he is likely to be selected after the top 50 picks go off the board.
Washington CB Sidney Jones
Sidney Jones was one of the draft's top cornerbacks before tearing his Achilles at the team's pro day. While he believes that he will be able to play in 2017, that seems unlikely. Jones' injury will likely have him falling to the third round.
UCLA CB Fabian Moreau
Fabian Moreau was well on his way to becoming a first-round pick before tearing his pectoral muscle at UCLA's pro day. Moreau underwent surgery for the injury, and he is expected to be out four to six months. However, that means that he should at least be able to contribute sometime during his rookie year. Moreau should still be a top-100 selection, likely going somewhere in the third round.
Who Is the Best Player After Myles Garrett?
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Myles Garrett is far and away the best player in the 2017 draft. However, deciding who should be selected after him is a challenge. There is no clear-cut No. 2 player in this draft. Some people believe it's Stanford's Solomon Thomas; others believe it could be one of the quarterbacks.
But the best player I've seen outside of Garrett played at Alabama in 2016. Jonathan Allen decided to return for his senior year after a phenomenal 2015 season in which he recorded 12 sacks in 11 starts. In 2016, Allen accumulated 10.5 sacks after seeing more double-teams than he did the year before. According to Pro Football Focus, Allen led all interior defensive linemen in the nation with 67 pressures.
The only knock on Jonathan Allen is where to play him in the NFL. He doesn't have the ideal length to play defensive end in the NFL, but he showed that he can get pressure from multiple positions. His best position may be as a 3-4 defensive end who can kick inside on passing downs.
Allen has the pedigree, the production and versatility to be a star in the NFL. He's the second-best player in this draft class.
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