2017 NFL Free Agents: Predicting Teams & Contracts for Top Unsigned Players

It's hard to believe when you consider how much activity there was during the first few weeks of free agency, but the reality is more than 250 NFL players remain on the free-agent market.

Many of those players will never return, replaced by newer models gathered from the college ranks in this month's NFL draft. But some of them are on standby until draft results or other transactions or injuries take place. And a lot of them are well-established, starting-caliber players.

Here are our predictions for what will happen with the 10 particularly notable members of that group, based on recent buzz and/or track records. 

RB Adrian Peterson

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

One-year, $5 million contract with the Green Bay Packers

Adrian Peterson turned 32 in March, which is ancient for a running back. He's also coming off a major knee injury, and he earned a negative image when he missed virtually the entire 2014 season while on the commissioner's exempt list after being indicted on child-abuse charges.

Throw in that he's averaged only 2.9 yards per carry in his last nine games, and it's easy to see why nobody is interested in signing Peterson before making their picks in a draft that appears to be loaded with good running backs.

Still, there are only so many rookie backs to go around. If the Oakland Raiders don't sign Marshawn Lynch or draft a replacement for Latavius Murray, they might be the top candidate to add Peterson. They could use that experience in their backfield, and Peterson wouldn't be forced to carry much of the load in a platoon role with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. But it's starting to look like there's a chance Lynch will sign in Oakland.

Then there are the New York Giants, who have been connected to Peterson in the media all offseason. But James Kratch of NJ Advance Media reported not too long ago that the team remained out of the Peterson sweepstakes, if you want to call them that. 

Assuming no other major developments shift the dynamics of the running back market in order to open up an opportunity for Peterson in an unexpected destination, that could leave the Packers. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that Green Bay mulled inviting Peterson for a visit last month while noting that sources believe his initial asking price is/was too high. 

That could change over time, and if it does the Packers might bite, especially if they don't use an early draft pick on a running back. Right now, Ty Montgomery, Christine Michael and Don Jackson are the only backs on the roster, and that was a weak spot for them last season. 

Peterson won't land a lucrative and/or long-term deal at his age and this late in the offseason, but his resume should at least get him a $5 million salary. He's defied odds his whole career, so you never know what he might do in a good Packers offense. Not a bad investment.

QB Colin Kaepernick

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

One-year, $10 million (incentive-laden) contract with the Houston Texans

There are a lot of theories as to why Colin Kaepernick remains unemployed despite his physical abilities, and it's fair to wonder if his decision to kneel during the national anthem has played a role.

But let's keep in mind that he hasn't been very good of late. His 85.9 passer rating since the start of 2014 ranks 25th among 29 quarterbacks who have made at least 25 starts in that span. That said, NFL front offices are willing to overlook a lot of warts if they think a signing might help them win more games.

Kaepernick is likely still a free agent for the same reason Jay Cutler is still a free agent: He probably views himself as a starter, and his suitors do not. After making big bucks last year, chances are he also wants more money than said suitors are willing to give him. That might change now that Tony Romo has been removed from the quarterback carousel. If it doesn't, it likely will when the draft is complete or when a starter suffers a major injury.

That makes it difficult to predict Kaepernick's eventual landing spot, but let's break it down. The Chicago Bears have already signed Mike Glennon, it doesn't appear as though the San Francisco 49ers want him back and our latest mock draft predicts the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals will take quarterbacks early in Round 1.

That leaves us with the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans. Broncos general manager John Elway did chase Kaepernick last offseason, but Elway has expressed confidence in the young quarterbacks on his roster. Meanwhile, even if the Texans use their No. 25 overall pick on a quarterback, that prospect will be a long-term project. They could easily come to the conclusion this spring or summer that Kaepernick gives them a better chance to win than that rookie or current projected starter Tom Savage.

Plus, Texans head coach Bill O'Brien admitted to Pro Football Talk that they've "discussed him."

We're going with the Texans on a one-year stopgap contract that would pay Kaepernick like a low-end starter or a high-end backup. That said, an injury in any other NFL camp could change things dramatically.

QB Jay Cutler

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Two-year, $28 million contract ($12 million guaranteed) with the San Francisco 49ers

Jay Cutler was released March 9 after an injury-plagued eighth season with the Bears, but just one year ago he was coming off the highest-rated campaign of his NFL career. Seemingly in his prime in 2015, Cutler was ranked as a top-10 quarterback in terms of DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders.

He still wasn't a superstar, but only eight qualified passers had higher yards-per-attempt averages. According to Pro Football Focus, he had the league's 12th-highest passer rating when throwing deep and was the NFL's sixth-highest-rated passer under pressure.

So where will the 11-year veteran land?

Just like with Kaepernick, the dynamics of the draft, the quarterback carousel and potential injuries make it difficult to predict Cutler's eventual landing spot. But let's break it down. We're giving Kaepernick to the Texans, Cutler won't return to Chicago and our latest mock draft still says the Jets, Browns and Cardinals will take quarterbacks early.

That leaves Denver and San Francisco, and it wouldn't be shocking if he wound up in either city. The Broncos could have a short leash on young quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, and the 33-year-old former Pro Bowler could be viewed as an upgrade if those guys struggle in Cutler's first NFL home.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers signed him before Denver reached that point. They've already signed the other two quarterbacks from the 2016 Bears depth chart, but nobody sees Brian Hoyer or Matt Barkley as a long-term answer. If the 49ers already have a thing for former Bears and aren't able to land a quarterback in the draft—and my latest mock draft predicts they won't be in on any of the "big four"— they might give Cutler a shot.

Of course, it's entirely possible he'd rather retire. This could play out in a multitude of ways.

DT Johnathan Hankins

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Three-year, $23 million contract (with $10 million guaranteed) with the New York Giants

Johnathan Hankins is a top-notch run defender entering his prime at a key position, and in his two complete seasons as a starter for the Giants, he's also put together 10 sacks.

Despite that and the fact the defensive tackle was graded by Pro Football Focus as the Giants' best player in their Wild Card loss to the Green Bay Packers in January, Hankins has yet to find a job. That could have something to do with his representation.

"Conversations with multiple NFL sources recently have produced a sense of disbelief that Johnathan Hankins remains on the market as free agency is nearing the three-week mark," Dan Duggan of NJ Advance Media reported recently. "But when it is revealed that the Giants free agent is represented by Kevin Poston, veteran NFL insiders tend to have a better understanding of the situation."

Duggan noted that Poston and his brother, Carl, have "developed reputations as unreasonable negotiators prone to making exorbitant contract demands." Once "major power brokers," Duggan says their "client list has dwindled to just three marginal players currently on NFL rosters."

A league source told Duggan that Kevin Poston's contract demands for Hankins have been "outrageous," and ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan reported in mid-March that Hankins' camp is asking for more than $10 million a year.

But at last check, NFL Network's Kimberly Jones reported that Hankins' camp has had a multiyear offer on the table from the Giants for weeks. That still seems like his most likely landing spot.

Will the deal average $10 million a year? Not likely, considering that All-Pro Giants defensive tackle Damon Harrison makes less than that. But we do live in a world where mediocre interior defensive linemen Sylvester Williams, Terrell McClain and Stacy McGee make $5 million-plus per season.

We'll essentially split the difference and give the young Hankins a contract similar to the one Nick Fairley signed with the New Orleans Saints last month.

C Nick Mangold

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Two-year, $7 million contract (with $3 million guaranteed) with the Los Angeles Chargers

Nick Mangold is 33 and coming off a rough season that was derailed by a nagging ankle injury, but we're still talking about a seven-time Pro Bowler who could bring valuable experience to an offensive line near you.

He won't get big money due to his age and signs of decline, but somebody who's considering a center in the draft will come away empty-handed, and that team will likely be willing to gamble on the notion that Mangold has a bounce-back season or two in him.

That team just might be the Los Angeles Chargers, who could kill two birds with one stone by signing Mangold and moving Matt Slauson back to his more natural position at guard.

RB LeGarrette Blount

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

One-year, $4 million contract with the New York Giants

LeGarrette Blount is coming off a season with 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he's a running back on the wrong side of 30 and is therefore chopped liver in the eyes of many potential NFL employers. Like Peterson, he'll almost certainly have to wait for the draft process to play out before catching on with a team that doesn't add an entry-level back.

Let's again break it down.

It's possible he returns to New England—NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported this week that the two sides have mutual interest in working out a contract—but the Pats signed Rex Burkhead last month so I don't think they'll go that route.

Eddie Lacy went to Seattle, Latavius Murray went to Minnesota and we're giving Peterson to Green Bay. We've got Jacksonville, Carolina and Kansas City drafting backs in the first round, Oakland might sign Lynch, and teams like the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Colts, Titans, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, Bears, Falcons, Saints, Cardinals, Rams and 49ers already have elite and/or aging backs on their rosters.

Blount may wind up on one of those rosters as a change-of-pace option, but it's far more likely he signs with one of the seven teams not listed above: Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Washington and the Giants.

The Browns aren't really investing in older players, the Packers and Bengals don't often invest in anyone, the Bucs are still tied strongly to Doug Martin, the Broncos have been linked heavily to hot running back prospect Christian McCaffrey in mock drafts, and the Redskins still ranked in the top 10 last season in terms of yards per attempt.

That leaves the Lions, who could use Blount to complement/provide insurance for Ameer Abdullah, or the Giants, who could use the same support for Paul Perkins.

New York's running game was worse than Detroit's last year, though, and I trust Perkins less than Abdullah. Plus, the Giants have been connected to Peterson, and James Kratch of NJ Advance Media reports that they "are looking to add another running back, preferably a bigger power back to complement Paul Perkins and Shane Vereen."

After breaking it down, the G-Men win. Look for a deal similar to the one Lacy signed in Seattle or the one Rex Burkhead inked with New England.

DT Jared Odrick

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Two-year, $12.5 million contract ($5 million guaranteed) with the Cincinnati Bengals

Jared Odrick has experienced an up-and-down career, which isn't promising considering he's approaching 30 and coming off a season derailed by an elbow injury. But he was a first-round pick in 2010, and with the Dolphins in 2014 he was one of the strongest defensive tackles in the league while making all 16 starts.

What if the roller coaster hasn't stopped? What if there is another ascent around the corner? It's certainly a good sign that—per Mike Kaye of First Coast News in Jacksonville—Odrick was invited to visit the league's smartest team in New England earlier in the offseason, and that he passed a physical while doing so. But he didn't sign with the Patriots, who later brought back Alan Branch and signed defensive lineman Lawrence Guy.

Odrick might be waiting for a 320-pound domino to fall. Rapoport tweeted that he's "one to watch" if the Giants don't re-sign Hankins. Since we're predicting the Giants will in fact get something done with Hankins, we'll give him to a Bengals team that could use some support for aging defensive tackles Pat Sims and Geno Atkins. 

Well, not "giving." They'll have to pay for him. He won't make as much as Hankins, but he probably deserves more than Williams, McClain and McGee.

(We originally had Odrick going to Philadelphia, but the Eagles traded for Baltimore's Timmy Jernigan.)

CB Nickell Robey-Coleman

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Three-year, $18 million contract ($6 million guaranteed) with the Minnesota Vikings

It's easy to understand why a lot of these guys remain on the market, but I can't explain why Nickell Robey-Coleman has slipped through the cracks of free agency. He's only 25 years old and is coming off a season in which opposing quarterbacks completed just 56.3 percent of their passes and had a 74.8 passer rating when throwing his way, according to Pro Football Focus.

Nickel cornerbacks don't get as much love as outside guys, but there's been plenty of interest in Robey-Coleman. Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported during the first week of free agency that the Vikings were one of four teams in play for Robey-Coleman after losing veteran slot cover man Captain Munnerlyn, and the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson reported a day later that the Dolphins had "expressed some level of interest" in the former USC Trojan.

What's the holdup?

Munnerlyn signed with the Panthers, and every other starting-caliber corner has been removed from the market. Minnesota and Miami do make a lot of sense, but the Dolphins have nickel corner Bobby McCain, and there's a chance they use an early pick on a cornerback. The Vikes lost Munnerlyn and are without a first-round selection, so they might be waiting for the draft to play out before making an offer.

The principle of Occam's razor wins.

DE Devin Taylor

Jose Juarez/Associated Press

Two-year, $11 million contract ($5 million guaranteed) with the Cincinnati Bengals

This league places so much value on guys who hit quarterbacks that Devin Taylor can't possibly remain unemployed for much longer. Only a year removed from a seven-sack season as a backup in Detroit, the 2013 fourth-round pick started all 16 games for the 2016 Lions.

There wasn't much room for him there, but with that resume at the age of 27, Taylor should be signed quickly by a team that's still looking for pass-rush help after the draft. It's possible he's inked sooner than that by a team that realizes it won't be taking an edge defender early on April 27 or April 28.

That might be the Bengals, who have money to spend and are far from a lock to take a pass-rusher in the first round (we predict they'll grab another corner). Only nine teams had a lower sack rate than Cincinnati last season, and Taylor could have a chance to steal Michael Johnson's starting defensive end spot opposite Carlos Dunlap.

The Bengals are rarely participants in the heart of free agency, but this is a late move that would make a ton of sense.

LB Gerald Hodges

Ben Margot/Associated Press

One-year, $3.5 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs

I have no idea why the Vikings traded Gerald Hodges away a year ago, but the cap space-rich 49ers are doing essentially the same thing. That despite the fact the linebacker had three sacks, two picks and 52 solo tackles in a breakout 2016 season with San Francisco, posting the eighth-best PFF grade at his position even though he took part in only 58 percent of the team's defensive snaps.

He visited the Chiefs (according to Pro Football Talk) and the Seahawks (per ESPN's Adam Schefter) in March, and he'll likely be on a lot of speed dials as we approach the draft (do people still use speed dials?), but ultimately he could end up in Kansas City.

We don't project the Chiefs to take a linebacker in Round 1 of the draft, but they could use younger talent at the position. Derrick Johnson is 34 and recovering from an Achilles injury, and Hodges is probably better than Ramik Wilson, who emerged last year as a key contributor inside.

Hodges might have to sign a prove-it deal and succeed in 2017 in order to land a lucrative free-agent contract next offseason. He'll have a good chance to do that with the cap-strapped Chiefs.