
2017 NFL Free Agents: Buying or Selling Tuesday's Rumors
It's tampering time!
At noon ET on March 7, the NFL's "legal tampering" period began. Free agents can't officially sign new deals until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday, but teams across the NFL are already negotiating the terms of those contracts with this year's top available players.
Soon the marketplace will be ablaze, but there's already plenty of smoke floating around. Rather than just detail the prominent rumors, we'll also discern what they mean for the teams and players involved.
Let's get started with the quarterback who looks to be Windy City-bound.
Mike Glennon to Chicago Bears?
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Bigger-name quarterbacks than Mike Glennon could wind up switching teams this spring. But at this moment, the 27-year-old looks like the most intriguing free-agent signal-caller.
He may not be one for long.
According to John Mullin of CSN Chicago, the list of teams pursuing Glennon is quickly whittling down, perhaps leaving the Chicago Bears as his primary suitor.
"The Buffalo Bills, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers have indicated that they have removed themselves from contract competition for Glennon, an NFL source with information from those organizations told CSNChicago.com," Mullin wrote.
Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo, Chicago is also Glennon's preferred landing spot, so the interest is mutual. However, Rapoport speculated the former Tampa Bay Buccaneers backup could fetch between $14-15 million... per season.
In other words, the Bears' solution to their quarterback woes is to move on from Jay Cutler by paying almost as much money for a signal-caller who has attempted 11 passes across the last two seasons.
To call Glennon anything more than a lateral move is being generous. His ceiling is probably, well, Jay Cutler.
Though the Bears need to get better under center, this isn't doing that. It isn't a better quarterback. Just a different one.
Verdict: Sell
Browns to Go on Massive Spending Spree
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With more than $105 million in available cap space (the most of any NFL team, per Spotrac), it isn't a stretch to imagine the Cleveland Browns being a huge factor in free agency this year.
If early rumors are any indication, that might be an understatement.
As Marc Sessler of NFL.com tweeted, Michael Silver of Sports Illustrated suggested Tuesday that the Browns could target offensive tackle Ricky Wagner, guard Kevin Zeitler and inside linebacker Dont'a Hightower in free agency.
All three are considered among the top options available at their respective positions this year. All three should command annual salaries approaching or even exceeding $10 million a season.
It isn't hard to see why the Browns would target Zeitler and Wagner. Zeitler was the sixth-ranked guard in the NFL last year at Pro Football Focus. Wagner ranked ninth in the league among right tackles. Combined with All-Pro tackle Joe Thomas and guard Joel Bitonio, a Browns line that was a glaring weakness would appear to be a strength in 2017 (on paper, at least).
Hightower's acquisition would be somewhat curious given the megadeal the team just gave to former Patriots teammate Jamie Collins, but the Cleveland run defense was terrible last year. A Collins/Hightower/Chris Kirksey trio at linebacker is not.
With Cleveland also interested in about-to-be-released Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor, per Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News, the Browns appear poised to make use of their copious cap room.
That's good. They need all the help they can get.
Verdict: Buy
Drama in D.C.
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The last thing any NFL team wants at this time of the year is a front office soap opera. Those appear to be all the rage in our nation's capital right now, however.
Per ESPN.com's John Keim, Washington general manager Scot McCloughan, who was nowhere to be found at last week's scouting combine, also wasn't at team headquarters for the beginning of free agency. Keim reported that at the combine, Washington brass explained McCloughan's absence as a family matter.
"At the combine," he wrote, "team president Bruce Allen said McCloughan would return as soon as his family matters 'are cleared up.' His grandmother died in early February, and that was the reason the Redskins gave for his absence."
However, it's not a good look for the man who is (theoretically) in charge of assembling the Washington roster to be away from the team for both the backroom gabfests in Indianapolis and the start of the tampering period.
A number of theories are being bandied about. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk speculated McCloughan's absence might be the result of a different personal matter. Liz Clarke and Mike Jones of the Washington Post suggested growing tensions between McCloughan and Allen have reached the point where the former is going to be let go.
We don't know for sure why McCloughan isn't around. But we do know that a Washington team trying to get back to the playoffs after narrowly missing out in 2016 and facing tough decisions on some important free agents is in the midst of one of the most important weeks of the year without its general manager. All as rumors swirl about the future of its starting quarterback.
Like I said, not a good look.
Verdict: Sell
The Latest on Kirk Cousins
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There's no word whether the potential dysfunction in the Washington front office has played a part in the ongoing circus surrounding quarterback Kirk Cousins. For now, with the Redskins having applied their exclusive rights franchise tag to him, Cousins is their starter under center.
And yet rumblings continue to indicate Cousins' days in D.C. are numbered.
As Rich Tandler of CSN Mid-Atlantic relayed Tuesday, NFL Network's Michael Silver indicated "his sense is that it is 'more likely than not' that Cousins starts the season as Kyle Shanahan's quarterback in San Francisco." Such speculation has been percolating since Shanahan took the San Francisco job, and last month, The Undefeated's Jason Reid tweeted Cousins both wanted to be franchise-tagged and wants out of Washington.
He's already gotten the first wish. Whether he gets the second or not, there's no denying the Redskins have bungled this whole saga spectacularly.
Last year, Washington's top offer to Cousins was for $16 million a season with $24 million in guarantees, per NFL Media's Mike Garafolo. That's significantly less than the Houston Texans gave Brock Osweiler.
After low-balling Cousins, the Redskins applied the exclusive rights franchise tag to him this offseason for unbeknownst reasons. Had they applied the non-exclusive tag and another team made an offer they decided not to match, said team also would have owed Washington two first-round picks.
That's more than the Redskins are going to get now.
Now, Washington has zero leverage. If Cousins does want out, the team has two choices—trade him for 60 cents on the dollar or wait a year and watch him leave in free agency while getting nothing in return. A third straight franchise tag is cost-prohibitive, to the tune of a staggering $34 million.
Cousins may not be an elite quarterback, but he's a good one. Ask the Jacksonville Jaguars, Browns or Bears how easy those are to replace.
A Washington team that was in the playoffs two years ago and barely missed the postseason last year is now rudderless and on the brink of a talent exodus. So far, this has the makings of a rough week.
Verdict: Sell
Buccaneers Taking a Run at DeSean Jackson
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Oh, look, more problems for Washington!
As JP Finlay of CSN Mid-Atlantic wrote, the prevailing wisdom in D.C. has been that wide receiver DeSean Jackson is about to get an offer the Redskins will have to refuse.
"Seems hard to see a scenario where DeSean comes back to the Redskins," Finlay said, "and it will be a big loss for the team, and not just statistically. Jackson's elite speed and ball-tracking ability make him a threat that opposing defense's must constantly account for, in turn opening up the middle of the field for crossing routes and underneath patterns that Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed run so well."
Finlay appears to have been spot-on, as the team reportedly pursuing Jackson has a lot more in their war chest than Washington. Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Buccaneers are expected to make a "strong push" for the 30-year-old, and only three teams in the NFL have more cap space than they do.
When teams with that kind of cabbage make a "strong push," things get done more often than not.
The Buccaneers can offer more than just money. Jackson, who is much closer to the end of his career than the beginning, would be on an up-and-coming team with a good young quarterback in Jameis Winston and one of the NFL's best young wide receivers in Mike Evans opposite him.
You can debate the wisdom of dropping $10 million or more annually on a receiver who will turn 31 on Dec. 1. But Jackson topped 1,000 yards in 2016 and averaged almost 18 yards a catch. He would solve the problem of the Buccaneers lacking a receiver to complement Evans and then some.
It's a deal that makes sense for both sides.
Verdict: Buy
Bears to Chase Cordarrelle Patterson
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On Wednesday morning, Bleacher Report will release its consensus expert predictions for how free agency will play out. One of the categories in said piece is the most overpaid player.
In that category, NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier singled out wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson.
"Teams with too much money to spend are going to fall in love with Patterson's eyeball value, post-Norv Turner mini-surge and fluky Pro Bowl status," Tanier said. "Patterson will remain a great kickoff returner and screens-and-bombs threat in the slot. But some overenthusiastic team will pay about $12 million a year for it."
Naturally, on the same day we learned the Bears may go full Osweiler with Mike Glennon, news emerged that the team is also intent on pursuing the wildly athletic yet disappointing speedster. According to Alex Marvez of Sporting News, a source indicated the Bears will "push" for Patterson, who tallied 52 receptions for 453 yards and two touchdowns with the Minnesota Vikings in 2016.
Now, we don't know that the Bears (or any team) will pony up $10-plus million a year for a receiver who has yet to top 500 yards in any of his four NFL seasons. And it's difficult to fault a three-win Bears team for wanting to improve by spending some of its $54 million in cap space.
But Glennon and Patterson could eat up half of that, and they wouldn't make the Bears any better.
Verdict: Sell
What's Next for Adrian Peterson?
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He may not be the player he once was, but Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is one of the most interesting free agents of 2017 based on just name value and past resume. As such, there's been no shortage of speculation about what's next for the future Hall of Famer.
According to Stacey Dales of NFL Network, Peterson's camp indicated he'd be open to playing for the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks. Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald also passed along word that Peterson might be amenable to a team-friendly deal with the world-champion New England Patriots.
"A source close to Peterson told the Herald that since AP has already earned a ton—more than $97 million is his career—it's certainly something he’d consider," Guregian wrote. "Peterson knows how it worked out for Darrelle Revis and Chris Long."
There's been no indication that any of those Super Bowl contenders feel the way about Peterson as he does about them. Were Peterson to sign with any of those clubs, it would likely be on a short-term contract worth far less than he's used to.
That's exactly how Peterson should be approaching free agency. All three of those contenders have a need at tailback—a need great enough that the possibility Peterson has one more good year left in him could be tempting.
If Peterson is going to end his career with a team other than the Vikes, at least let it be in pursuit of the championship that has to this point eluded him. The alternative—watching him play out the string for an also-ran—is depressing.
Verdict: Buy
Bears Targeting Stephon Gilmore
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The Bears might not be relevant during the regular season, but general manager Ryan Pace appears determined to win the first week of free agency.
In addition to their reported pursuit of both Mike Glennon and Cordarrelle Patterson, the Bears are also expected to make a "big push" to sign free-agent cornerback Stephon Gilmore, according to Alex Marvez of Sporting News.
Just because the Bears want to acquire all these players doesn't mean they'll be successful. Signing all three could consume roughly $35 million in salary cap space per season.
Then there's the not-so-small matter of Gilmore's contract demands. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, Gilmore is seeking a deal that will pay in excess of the $14 million a season Richard Sherman is getting from the Seattle Seahawks.
That's an awful lot of money for a cornerback who ranked 60th at the position last year, per PFF.
Gilmore's a better player than that ranking—he was a top-20 performer the year before—but we've been waiting for him to become an elite corner ever since the Buffalo Bills drafted him in the first round back in 2012.
It hasn't happened—at least with any consistency. Yet Gilmore wants to be paid like one.
And if Tuesday's rumors are any indication, Pace is on a mission to set the Bears' cap space on fire just to watch it burn.
Verdict: Sell
The Bouye Bonanza
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Adrian Peterson may be the biggest name in free agency, but the biggest paycheck might go to a player very few people had heard of before last season.
After a breakout 2016 campaign, Houston Texans cornerback A.J. Bouye is now well-known. And as the top prospect at one of football's premium positions, Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle reports Bouye is about to hit the proverbial jackpot.
"All of Bouye's contract proposals during the legal tampering period that launched Tuesday afternoon carry an annual average of $12 million or above, according to NFL executives with knowledge of the marketplace not authorized to speak publicly," Wilson wrote.
Per Wilson, in addition to the Texans (who are hoping to get a deal done before free agency opens Thursday), the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles have all expressed some measure of interest in the 25-year-old.
Later in the day, Wilson tweeted Bouye isn't expected to go far. "NFL sources predict extremely high chance A.J. Bouye remains in AFC South with either Texans, Titans, Jaguars or Colts," Wilson said.
Given that Bouye is just coming into his prime and ranked among the top 10 cornerbacks in the NFL last year, per Pro Football Focus, it's not surprising that more teams than not are interested in adding him. However, one of those teams is likely about to spend upward of $30 million in guaranteed money on a defensive back who was a nameless subpackage player at this point a year ago.
It's a risky move, but all free-agent signings are to an extent. Of this year's free agents in the secondary, Bouye easily has the most upside.
Verdict: Buy
Rams Shopping Trumaine Johnson
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For the second straight year, the Los Angeles Rams slapped the franchise tag on cornerback Trumaine Johnson. However, despite the fact that Johnson has already signed his $16.7 million tender for 2017, the 27-year-old may not be long for L.A.
On Tuesday, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported the Rams aren't convinced Johnson fits in their long-term plans and are exploring a trade.
"So much of what the Rams are doing is about building and they would be able to get a significant draft-pick haul for one of the top corners in the game," Rapoport said. "Right now they are weighing their options, trying to see what is out there for Trumaine Johnson and for the Rams."
When asked whether there was a team in particular where Johnson could be headed, Rapoport said, "Keep an eye on the Cleveland Browns."
It's hard to pass judgment too quickly on this notion. After all, the draft-pick compensation and terms of the long-term deal that would no doubt be part of any deal could have a big impact on how this all plays out.
But one has to think the Rams would want a Day 2 pick at the very least. Johnson is likely going to demand at least the $12-13 million annually that Janoris Jenkins got from the New York Giants a year ago, too.
That's a lot to give up for a cornerback who ranked 35th last year, per Pro Football Focus. Especially when the Browns are already overpaying Joe Haden at the back end of the defense.
Verdict: Sell
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