The Top 3 MLB Breakout Candidates at Every Position Entering 2017
In the vernacular of sports, "breakout" is a nebulous term. It means different things to different people.
Here's what it means to me: a not-yet-star player who elevates his game and statistics significantly. He can be a youngster who's only sipped his cup of coffee or have a few seasons under his belt. He can trail some hype or toil in relative obscurity.
You'll find guys who match all of those descriptions here. There are top prospects with rookie status intact about to get their first extended shot, established players coming back from injuries and a few names who have taxied down the runway of stardom and appear poised for liftoff.
I've tapped three breakout candidates at each position, including starting and relief pitchers. Inevitably, some will soar and some will fizzle—but they'll all be worth watching closely in 2017.
Catcher
1 of 10
Austin Hedges (SDP)
After spending much of the 2015 season with the San Diego Padres as Derek Norris' backup, Austin Hedges returned to Triple-A for most of 2016. After hitting .326 with 21 home runs for El Paso, the 24-year-old is in line to become the rebuilding Friars' primary backstop.
Hedges is a strong defender who has thrown out 34 percent of would-be base stealers in both the minor and major leagues. No one expects him to match the offensive numbers he put up in the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League, but he should be able to find his groove at the plate with an everyday role.
Tom Murphy (COL)
In 21 games with the Colorado Rockies last season, Tom Murphy hit five home runs and two doubles, good for a 1.006 OPS.
He'll likely start the 2017 season in a time share with defensive whiz Tony Wolters. With that type of power potential at Coors Field, however, Murphy could quickly swing his way into more playing time.
Andrew Susac (MIL)
The San Francisco Giants dealt Andrew Susac to the Milwaukee Brewers at the 2016 trade deadline, freeing him from Buster Posey's long shadow.
The 26-year-old can win a starting job with the Crew and deliver on the promise that once made him a top-10 catching prospect, per MLB.com. Playing his home games at hitter-friendly Miller Park as opposed to offense-suppressing AT&T Park won't hurt.
First Base
2 of 10
Josh Bell (PIT)
Josh Bell's path to a 2017 breakout hit a snag when he underwent knee surgery Feb. 1. The 24-year-old is progressing as hoped, however, and should be ready for Opening Day, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
The Bucs' No. 4 prospect, according to Baseball America, Bell slashed .273/.368/.406 in 45 games for the Pirates last season. Assuming his knee recovery continues, he'll have a chance to deliver on the prediction of Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter, who said Bell "belongs alongside Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson as a co-favorite to take home National League Rookie of the Year honors."
Greg Bird (NYY)
Greg Bird debuted with the New York Yankees in 2015 and posted a .261/.343/.529 line with 11 home runs in 46 games but missed all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery.
The 24-year-old saw action in the Arizona Fall League and says he's all good. "Now I am back to where I want to be; I can feel what I want to feel," he said Monday, per the New York Post's George A. King III.
Bird will have some competition in the form of slugger Chris Carter, who hit 41 home runs last season for Milwaukee and signed a one-year deal with the Yanks. New York is in the midst of a youth movement, though, and Bird will be given every opportunity to succeed.
Dan Vogelbach (SEA)
Dan Vogelbach hit .292 with a .923 OPS and 23 homers for the Chicago Cubs' and Seattle Mariners' Triple-A affiliates in 2016 before making his MLB debut with Seattle.
The lefty-swinging 24-year-old should get regular at-bats for the Mariners this season, possibly in a platoon with Danny Valencia, though he could win the job outright if his MiLB numbers translate.
Second Base
3 of 10
Javier Baez (CHC)
You could argue Javier Baez broke out in the 2016 postseason when he shone for the Cubs with highlight-reel defense and some huge home runs.
This could be the year he explodes, however. The flashy infielder turned 24 in December, meaning he's climbing toward his prime. He'll share time at second base with veteran Ben Zobrist and will serve as a super utility man. He'll get his reps, though.
"Of course he's going to play a lot," manager Joe Maddon said, per Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. "How it's going to balance out? We're not 100 percent sure yet. But he's pretty darned good."
Devon Travis (TOR)
The Toronto Blue Jays' Devon Travis has played 163 major league games, which is one full season plus a bonus contest. In that time, he's hit .301 with 19 home runs, 85 RBI and an .811 OPS.
He's been limited by injuries, but if he can stay healthy, he's demonstrated the aptitude for All-Star-level production.
Jose Peraza (CIN)
When the Cincinnati Reds traded veteran second baseman Brandon Phillips to the Atlanta Braves, they opened up a spot for Jose Peraza.
The 22-year-old hit .324 in 72 games with 21 stolen bases last season and could join center fielder Billy Hamilton to form the game's speediest duo.
Third Base
4 of 10
Alex Bregman (HOU)
Alex Bregman scuffled upon his introduction to the big leagues. The second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bregman notched just two hits, both singles, in his first 10 games after a July call-up.
The 22-year-old rebounded and finished with a .264 average and eight home runs, hitting .333 in August and .344 in September.
"There's a hunger for him," manager A.J. Hinch said, per Kristie Rieken of the Shreveport Times. "I never worry about him wanting to be better or doing what it takes to be better."
Ryon Healy (OAK)
Playing for the Oakland A's means less exposure by definition. Ryon Healy could land on a lot of radars in 2017, though, after hitting .305 with 13 home runs in 72 games for Oakland last season.
He's got competition at third base after the A's signed Trevor Plouffe, and he should log time at first base and designated hitter.
"I was kind of taking my reps at third and first, continuing doing that routine to be prepared for that possibility," Healy said, per CSN Bay Area's Joe Stiglich. "It doesn't seem like anything is set in stone."
Miguel Sano (MIN)
After debuting with a .916 OPS for the Minnesota Twins in 2015, Miguel Sano saw that number plummet to .781 in 2016.
The 23-year-old struggled defensively in the outfield and will try to hone his skills at third base, where he made 15 errors in 42 games last season. His power, though, is as undeniable as it is tantalizing.
Shortstop
5 of 10
Dansby Swanson (ATL)
The top overall pick in the 2015 draft, Swanson posted a .302/.361/.442 slash line in 38 games with the Atlanta Braves last season.
In December, MLB.com's Jim Callis favorably compared the 22-year-old to soon-to-be New York Yankees Hall of Famer Derek Jeter.
That's a lot of hype, but Swanson has the tools and polish to deliver as the retooled Braves move into their shiny new stadium.
Addison Russell (CHC)
Like Baez, Addison Russell has already scratched the surface of an MLB breakout. The Cubs shortstop was an All-Star and top-20 National League MVP vote-getter in 2016.
He finished with a .238 average and .738 OPS, though, numbers the 23-year-old could vault past in his third big league season. One stat to note: Russell's batting average on balls in play dipped from .324 in 2015 to .277 last season. Even if he doesn't get better (which he will) that suggests a degree of correctable misfortune.
Tim Anderson (CWS)
In 99 games with the Chicago White Sox last season, Tim Anderson hit .283 with nine home runs and 10 stolen bases.
He'll get ample rope this season with the rebuilding White Sox and could join the game's burgeoning shortstop revolution.
Left Field
6 of 10
Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
In 34 games last season, Andrew Benintendi posted a .295/.359/.476 slash line with 11 doubles, a triple and two home runs.
His .367 BABIP and .179 average against lefties could impede his path to stardom, but he's got the ability and opportunity to join Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts in the Red Sox's enviable young offensive core.
Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
The Cubs don't technically have a position for Kyle Schwarber, who is blocked at catcher by Willson Contreras and in left field by Zobrist whenever Baez sees action at second.
That said, Chicago will find a place for the 23-year-old, who has hit 16 home runs in 71 big league games and improbably shone in the World Series after missing nearly the entire 2016 season with a busted ACL.
David Dahl (COL)
David Dahl needs to fend off Gerardo Parra for the left field gig in Colorado. If he does, he can build on his 2016 rookie season, in which he hit .315 with seven home runs in 63 games.
"The guy can run, he's got some power and he hit for average," said Rockies manager Bud Black, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. "He's a very good defender. He has a skill set that is exciting."
Center Field
7 of 10
Byron Buxton (MIN)
You've been hearing about Byron Buxton as the next big thing for a while. You have every right to be skeptical given his .220/.274/.398 line in 138 big league games.
The 2012 No. 2 overall pick posted a 1.011 OPS and nine home runs and 22 RBI in his final 29 contests with the Twins, however. For those inclined to get excited, there's your ammunition.
"I just went out and stopped worrying about everything else," Buxton said, per Guy N. Limbeck of the Post-Bulletin. "I just went out and played my game."
Kevin Kiermaier (TBR)
A Gold Glove winner in 2015 and 2016, the Tampa Bay Rays' Kevin Kiermaier can become a superstar if he hits consistently.
Injuries limited him to 105 games last season, but he hit .296 with an .874 OPS in September and October. He'll turn 27 in April. This could be the year his bat catches up with his glove.
Keon Broxton (MIL)
Keon Broxton played 75 games for the Brewers last season, an admittedly small sample. In an even smaller second-half sample of 46 games, he posted a .937 OPS with eight home runs.
The 26-year-old was never a touted prospect, but the Brewers will give him ample opportunity to extend his roll in 2017.
Right Field
8 of 10
Aaron Judge (NYY)
Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge homered in his first big league at-bat last season. When the dust settled, the strapping 24-year-old finished with a .179/.263/.345 slash line in 95 MLB plate appearances.
Coming into spring, Judge has competition in right field from a group that includes Aaron Hicks and Mason Williams. If he taps into his raw power at homer-happy Yankee Stadium, he could quickly become a leader of the Bronx's burgeoning youth movement.
Hunter Renfroe (SDP)
Hunter Renfroe went nuts after a September call-up, going 13-for-35 and posting a 1.189 OPS for the San Diego Padres. Before that, he hit 30 home runs with 105 RBI at Triple-A El Paso.
The 24-year-old also has a fire hose for an arm, and he figures to open 2017 as the Padres' starting right fielder. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but he's got all the makings of MLB's next top masher.
Mitch Haniger (SEA)
Mitch Haniger hit 25 home runs with a .999 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last season, and he is the favorite to win the starting right-field gig in Seattle.
He also flashes leather and versatility, as general manager Jerry Dipoto highlighted.
"He's athletic, plays all three spots, throws very well and very accurately," Dipoto told reporters. "He's an excellent defender; he's hungry; he's got great makeup."
Starting Pitcher
9 of 10
Julio Urias (LAD)
The Los Angeles Dodgers' Julio Urias pitched his way to the verge of a breakout in 2016, posting a 3.39 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 77 innings.
The Mexican southpaw won't reach legal U.S. drinking age until August, suggesting the best is yet to come.
He'll be monitored next season to avoid overuse but isn't on a strict innings limit, according to Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
"It's less about a specific innings number and more about pitches thrown and stress and innings and how his body was responding after outings," Friedman said, per Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci.
James Paxton (SEA)
After beginning the season at Triple-A, James Paxton put up 2.3 WAR in the second half of 2016 for the Mariners. That was good enough for eighth in baseball, sandwiched between the Texas Rangers' Yu Darvish (2.2) and Chicago Cubs' Kyle Hendricks (2.4).
The 28-year-old lefty said he "felt like something clicked mentally," per Doug Pacey of the Associated Press (h/t the Spokesman-Review). This season, he can prove the click took.
Tyler Glasnow (PIT)
Tyler Glasnow debuted with the Pirates in 2016, posting a 4.24 ERA in seven appearances, including four starts.
The tall right-hander flashed swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 24 in 23.1 innings. He needs to refine his command to win a spot in the Pirates starting five, but his high-90s fastball and plus curveball give him the tools to be a top-of-the-rotation fixture.
Relief Pitcher
10 of 10
Edwin Diaz (SEA)
Edwin Diaz was a revelation in 2016, striking out an eye-popping 15.3 hitters per nine innings while posting a 2.79 ERA and notching 18 saves for Seattle.
Now, the 22-year-old right-hander can join the pantheon of elite closers in his first full season.
As Mariners skipper Scott Servais said to reporters, "You can manage the game to get the ball to Eddie and feel good about it."
Nate Jones (CWS)
Nate Jones posted a 2.29 ERA with 80 strikeouts and 15 walks in 70.2 innings for the White Sox last season.
That's solid by itself. The 31-year-old Jones' stock will soar if Chicago deals closer David Robertson, as he'll be able to add a pile of saves to his already stout stat line.
Carter Capps (SDP)
Forget the controversy surrounding Carter Capps' unconventional delivery.
Focus instead on the fact that the hard-throwing 26-year-old righty, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, could take the closer's role in San Diego from Brandon Maurer, who posted a 4.52 ERA last season.
Capps has never recorded a big league save, but his 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings over 135.1 MLB innings hint at ninth-inning-worthy stuff.
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
