2017 NFL Draft: Exploring Landing Spots for This Year's Top QBs
With all but one head coach and general manager opening filled up, we have a pretty good feel for which directions NFL teams are heading in for the 2017 offseason. At offensive coordinator, only three gigs leaguewide are open, including the Los Angeles Rams', a team that just selected a quarterback with the first overall pick last season.
Every draft class starts with a conversation about quarterbacks, with their landing spots being something close to football's "Solve for X" start to the April draft. In this class, four of the six underclassmen who declared, DeShone Kizer, Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes, are likely to be the first four players off the board in 2017, in some order.
Join us as we go over which teams may be in the market for them based on where they are slated to pick in the draft, along with which coaches, schemes and personnel individual teams have to work with. An entire organization can receive extensions or a pink slip based solely on how their quarterback performs three years into their career. We'll explain where the ideal landing spots for these passers are.
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
1 of 5
DeShone Kizer has the highest upside of any quarterback in this draft class, and he might be the easiest to project into any system. At Notre Dame, he didn't play in what you'd typically consider a spread system, at least on the relative scale of college offenses, despite the fact that the team often used him on option plays like the inverted veer option.
Kizer, who played in his sophomore year as a 20-year-old in 2016, has plenty of potential, from an athleticism and tools standpoint. As a pure passer, he has some ups and downs, but he's not too far away from where Jameis Winston was in his final year at Florida State or from how Eli Manning plays in the NFL.
Now, Kizer doesn't have the rings that Winston had coming out of school or Manning's last name, but that alone shouldn't be what decides how high he does or does not get drafted. Many will bring up the fact that North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky is a Cleveland Browns fan, but there are plenty of ties from Kizer to NFL teams from a geographical standpoint, too, if you're one to believe that it's a factor in where players get drafted.
That may be the case, as the Jacksonville Jaguars have taken three straight products from the state of Florida with top-five picks in the last three seasons, but that may or may not be a factor for all 32 franchises in the NFL.
With that being said, the Browns hold the first overall pick in the draft and need a quarterback, and Kizer played high school ball in Toledo, Ohio, just a two-hour drive on I-90. The Chicago Bears also need a passer and are sitting in the third slot in this draft, and another I-90 trip from South Bend, where Notre Dame is, to Chicago is again just a two-hour drive.
When age, upside and geographical location are all taken into account, expect Kizer to start rising up NFL draft boards the closer we get to draft day. If not, he could be a surprise early selection to one of those two teams, like Central Florida's Blake Bortles was to the Jaguars in the 2014 draft.
Deshaun Watson, Clemson
2 of 5
By this point, you all know who Deshaun Watson is, at least by name. After being the standout player in the last two national championship games, it's hard to imagine why Watson would have returned to Clemson for a senior season in 2017, considering the fact that his spread-style offense wouldn't change over the next year.
If you watch ESPN's coaches room broadcast of the national championship game, you would have learned the opinion of several college head coaches on Clemson's passing offense. Many times, these veterans of college football, some of who went toe-to-toe with the Tigers over the last two seasons, predicted a deep pass before the play was even snapped, as the Dabo Swinney-led team loved to take long shots based on its outside matchups in isolated formations, including opposite of the trips side.
It's not often that a thinner, mobile quarterback is labeled as a vertical passer, at least if you aren't Robert Griffin III, but that's where Watson finds himself. Because of that, there are a few teams who Watson could fit with like a glove from a schematic standpoint.
The first team on the list is San Francisco 49ers, who if they are waiting to sign Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to be their head coach, will have an offense that attacks every area of the field. With the most bare cupboard of any team in terms of offensive talent, Watson's ability to extend and make plays with his feet will also be very valuable.
The Cleveland Browns head coach, Hue Jackson, also doesn't shy away from dual-threat passers, as he once took now Brown receiver Terrelle Pryor in as a mobile quarterback. The Browns also signed Griffin, who might have had the best rookie season of any mobile quarterback ever, last offseason. Even when he was the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive coordinator, Jackson used Andy Dalton in option or run-pass option looks at times.
Another team to keep in mind is the Arizona Cardinals, whose quarterback, Carson Palmer, has struggled since sustaining a finger injury against the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2015 regular season. If the team is looking for a vertical passer to mold as the heir apparent for head coach Bruce Arians, Watson could be its pick, should he last until the 13th overall pick.
Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
3 of 5
Mitch Trubisky is a riser. Before this season, little to no one in the college football world had him pegged as a potential first-round candidate. After one year as a starter under North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora, he's now among the top prospects at his position in this draft.
Last year, Paxton Lynch of Memphis, who was a bit more raw than Trubisky, was drafted in the first round by the Denver Broncos despite the fact that he also came from a new-age spread system. From a pure tools perspective, Trubisky isn't too far away from Carson Wentz, the second overall pick who had 28 turnovers in his rookie season last draft cycle. But Wentz was given a tremendous amount of credit for making audibles and line calls in a pro-style offense, something Trubisky doesn't have on his resume.
In less than a year, Trubisky has gone from someone who spent three years on a bench in Chapel Hill to being asked to potentially play in Week 1 of an NFL season. That's a bit drastic, which is why he will more than likely have to spend some time on the bench, like Lynch did, rather than slide straight into a starting role like Wentz did. Remember, Wentz was a third-string quarterback in the preseason for the Philadelphia Eagles, who only elevated him to a starter after they received a trade offer for Sam Bradford that included a first-round pick.
With that in mind, there are a few teams that are interesting fits for Mitch Trubisky. The first is Buffalo, where Tyrod Taylor could start in 2017. With the job security of a new coaching staff, they could very well take their time in developing the former Tar Heel.
Teams with veteran passers who may be in the market for a 2018 quarterback are the Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals, so keep that in mind. The wild cards could be the Jacksonville Jaguars, depending how much they think of Blake Bortles, who is heading into his fourth year with a sporadic projection moving forward, and the Washington Redskins, whose passer, Kirk Cousins, may be more of a franchise-tag candidate than a long-term contract player.
.png?w=256)
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
4 of 5
There is no quarterback in this draft class more interesting, or who could provide more shock value on Day 1 of the draft, than Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the son of Pat, a former Major League pitcher, and plays in a wide-open system with the Red Raiders.
That system would often be a knock, but California's Jared Goff went off the board with the first pick of the 2016 draft last season despite coming out of a "Bear Raid" offense. Davis Webb, who lost the starting job at Texas Tech to Mahomes, was a graduate transfer with the Golden Bears this season because of how similar the offenses were.
Webb was a Senior Bowl passer, one of the best in practices and in the game last week, so it's getting hard to just use a system against individual passers just yet. Mahomes was also coached by Kliff Kingsbury, a former Texas Tech and NFL quarterback who elevated Johnny Manziel into a first-round pick after spending time as Texas A&M's offensive coordinator.
Mahomes' best comparisons, at least coming out of college, are Manziel and Derek Carr, who had all of the arm talent in the world but played in systems that don't often translate to NFL success. One reason for Manziel's success at Texas A&M was the fact that he had two first-round offensive tackles blocking for him at all times with the Aggies. In Oakland, Carr was an MVP candidate at the NFL level because he had a top-five offensive line in the NFL blocking for him.
If you're going to have a backyard style of passer, you need a talented offensive line in front of him, as they work together to extend plays to show off a passer's arm strength on the move. While there are conversations about Aaron Rodgers being the most talented passer the game has ever seen, the Green Bay Packers wouldn't be much without their star bookend duo of David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, either.
Speaking of Rodgers, Mahomes' father even took to Twitter to compare Mahomes' arm talent to Rodgers' during this year's playoffs. To be totally honest, they aren't that different, but getting Mahomes from a leader of a team with a 3-6 record in Big 12 play to a legitimate MVP candidate is going to take time and assets on the offensive line.
Look at teams like the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans. They saw young quarterbacks having early success because of the play from their line in 2016. Teams like Washington, if Kirk Cousins walks in free agency or demands a trade after being tagged, New England, should Jimmy Garoppolo be traded and they look to replace Tom Brady in the near future, Buffalo, New Orleans or Kansas City could be long-term options for Mahomes to land in.
Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech
5 of 5
After those four quarterbacks, there isn't another passer who truly has a shot to go in the first round of the 2017 draft. Brad Kaaya of Miami declared early but hasn't had much of a college career, other than being a young starter at a big school. Nathan Peterman of Pittsburgh is the hottest senior quarterback in this class despite the fact that he had to transfer from Tennessee, where he lost the starting job to Josh Dobbs, who is also in this draft class.
Right behind Peterman among the seniors is Davis Webb of California, who lost his starting job at Texas Tech to Patrick Mahomes, who like Dobbs, is also in this draft class. Chad Kelly of Mississippi, who spent time at a junior college after being kicked out of Clemson, has a list of off-field issues and is being labeled as "the next Johnny Manziel" by some while he recovers from a season-ending knee injury.
In many ways, this is a four-quarterback draft class at the top. With that being said, if anyone has a chance to rise, it's going to be Jerod Evans of Virginia Tech. Evans started his career at Air Force, a school he transferred from after he sustained a knee injury his freshman season.
From there, triple-option style of play was converted to a traditional spread style of play in junior college for two years, eventually leading to his one year at Virginia Tech. After one year under Justin Fuente, the Hokies new head coach who developed Paxton Lynch into a first-round pick, Evans decided to declare for the draft.
As a runner, Evans is more talented than Logan Thomas, who was taken as a fourth-round pick by the Arizona Cardinals in 2014 and is currently a tight end for the Buffalo Bills. He's also more gifted in terms of arm talent.
Right now, Evans needs to be a reserve passer who is strictly on a roster to develop, potentially not even active on game days, but that player still gets drafted on Day 2 based on recent draft classes.
Look for teams who could use a big arm, like the Cardinals, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints, to be contenders to take Evans as soon as the second round.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Titans Camp Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Rams Seahawks Football")
