Giants vs. Packers: Complete Wild Card Gameday Preview

If you're not tied to the Green Bay Packers in any way—be it player, coach, fan or cheese head vendor—then their quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the scariest thing in your life right now.

The only possible comparison on the scare meter is leaving the house and then realizing your phone is at 10 percent battery life. That's how daunting the thought of defending Rodgers has become for opposing defenses.

And it's been that way for a while.

Rodgers wasn't unhinged to begin the season. He just wasn't the unfairly precise quarterback we've all come to know over the past nine years. But that guy returned right after a four-game losing streak when all seemed lost. Now the Packers offense has scored 30-plus points in four straight games.

Which is why the mere thought of defending Rodgers feels like a quick offseason vacation ticket. So any defense would be overmatched against the Packers then, right? Maybe any defense except for the one put together by the New York Giants, who will travel to Green Bay for a second time in 2016-17 Sunday.

The Giants kept the first game between the two teams tight, and the Packers won by a touchdown. Their second-ranked scoring defense is capable of doing that again, but prevailing at icy Lambeau Field in January is always a monumental task.

Can the Giants do it? Or will the fiery hot Rodgers be far too much? Let's explore those questions and more while breaking down the matchup.

Game Specifics

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When: Sunday 4:40 p.m. ET

Where: Lambeau Field

Network: Fox

Expected Weather: Mostly sunny, 14 degrees

Line (via OddsShark.com): Packers -4.5

These two teams met back in Week 5, with the Packers winning 23-16.

But that was long before Ty Montgomery truly emerged as a multithreat weapon, and especially a powerful yet still agile running back. Montgomery exploded for 162 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Chicago Bears in Week 16. He's averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

Montgomery will be an added offensive element for the Giants to contain at frosty Lambeau Field, where the Packers have dropped only five regular-season games over the past three years.

Injury Report

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Here are the most significant injuries for Sunday's game.

Green Bay Packers

• Cornerback Quinten Rollins (neck/concussion)
• Wide receiver Randall Cobb (ankle)
• Cornerback Damarious Randall (knee)
• Guard T.J. Lang (foot)

The Packers have been colored in shades of black and blue all season, and that's not changing now. The encouraging news is that most of the main injuries are healing, and those affected can play through their various aches and pains.

The only exception to that from the list above could be Rollins, who suffered what looked to be a scary injury against the Detroit Lions in Week 17. He had to be carted off, but then rejoined the team midweek (per ESPN's Rob Demovsky) and was placed in the concussion protocol.

His potential absence means the Packers secondary will be limping, just as it has been for much of the season. Randall isn't fully healthy still, and that has shown at times in his performance. And Sam Shields has been on injured reserve since October due to a concussion.

 

New York Giants

• Cornerback Janoris Jenkins (back)
• Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (core muscle)

There's both good and bad news here, though the latter was expected.

Jenkins has been a free-agency win for the Giants while quickly emerging as one of the league's most aggressive shutdown cornerbacks. He's the linchpin in their secondary, which is why his recovery from a back injury was critical for any playoff success. Jenkins missed Week 16 and then played only one half in Week 17.

But he'll be on the field for the wild-card weekend showdown against Rodgers. Earlier in the week, Jenkins said, "I'm great" when asked about his status, via John Healy of the New York Daily News. He played just 23 snaps in Week 17 and will now be asked to cool down Jordy Nelson, the sizzling Packers wide receiver who recorded 356 receiving yards over the final three games of 2016.

The very expected, not-so-good news is that Pierre-Paul hasn't quite recovered from surgery a month ago, according to ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan. There's still hope he may return in some capacity if the Giants advance.

Packers Offense vs. Giants Defense

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Here's the thing about the Packers offense: Rodgers is terrifying.

There are many numbers to support that simple but true observation. I'll get to those in just a second. But first, it's important that we spend as much time as possible being in awe of peak Rodgers. That came in Week 17—also known as the NFC North championship game against the Detroit Lions—in the fourth quarter of a game eventually decided by a touchdown.

Rodgers scanned the field, rolled left to escape pressure and then still found nothing. So he rolled again, scanned again and then fired into the porthole-sized throwing window for a touchdown pass to wide receiver Geronimo Allison.

Over eight seconds passed between the snap and when Rodgers released the ball. The best cornerbacks in the league often stand little chance against a quarterback who can wiggle free from pressure and then throw with that kind of pinpoint accuracy.

Which is what Rodgers has done for much of the season, and especially throughout Green Bay's six-game win streak. He's thrown 15 touchdown passes during that span without an interception over 200 attempts. Rodgers has also averaged 8.3 yards per attempt since Week 12.

So the task ahead for a Giants defense that went from eyesore to team pillar in 2016 is massive, and it rests with getting pressure on Rodgers. The continued absence of Pierre-Paul stings, but fellow defensive end Olivier Vernon led all 4-3 defensive ends with 86 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.

When Rodgers does have time to throw, Jenkins vs. Nelson on the outside will be the marquee matchup to watch. As DraftKings analyst Adam Levitan noted, Jenkins has been the primary man in coverage against the Bengals' A.J. Green, the Steelers' Antonio Brown and the Cowboys' Dez Bryant twice. None of those Pro Bowl receivers finished with over 68 receiving yards.

Who Has the Edge? Packers

Giants Offense vs. Packers Defense

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Where is the real Eli Manning? And has that version of the New York Giants quarterback been with us at all during the 2016-17 season so far?

The Giants went through a stretch when they won eight out of nine games at one point. But the surge wasn't powered by offense, and instead their defense that allowed 15.8 points per game was the focus. 

Meanwhile, it looks strange to see a playoff quarterback tied with the Jaguars' Blake Bortles in interceptions during the regular season. But that's where Manning found himself, with three picks coming recently in a Week 16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. He's made poor decisions too often and has missed key throws downfield. Which has all resulted in a per-attempt average of only 6.7 yards, tied for 28th among the 36 qualifiers, per PFF.

That's concerning for the Giants offense. But wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. still finished third in receiving yards, despite Manning's struggles (1,367 yards). There's an opportunity for him to pick apart an injured and hobbled Packers secondary.

Who Has the Edge? Giants

Special Teams

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A game-changing kick return is like a warm bowl of chili for the visiting team at blustery Lambeau Field. Giants kick returner Dwayne Harris didn't score a return touchdown throughout the regular season, but he often gifted his offense quality field position. Harris was a top-10 kick returner with his 533 yards, and he recorded three returns for 40-plus yards.

Harris is a potential X-factor for the Giants, and they should feel confident about kicker Robbie Gould once in position to put points on the board. Gould is flawless on his 10 field-goal attempts with the Giants, and after years with the Chicago Bears, he knows the challenges of bad weather well.

The Packers, meanwhile, were given a scare from kicker Mason Crosby when he missed an extra-point attempt in Week 17. But he's been his usual solid self overall while converting 86.7 percent of his field-goal attempts and missing just four kicks despite the difficult conditions in Green Bay.

Who Has the Edge? Giants

The Pick

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Green Bay Packers 20, New York Giants 16

If there's one defense in the entire NFC side of the playoff bracket capable of slowing Rodgers, it's the one fielded by the Giants. We may find out if the Seahawks are in that category too later in the playoffs, but the complexion of their defense has changed without safety Earl Thomas.

The Giants could at least limit Rodgers and knock him down from his high perch over the past six weeks. But it still might not matter much.

That's what they did during the previous meeting between these two teams back in Week 5. Rodgers threw just seven interceptions all season, and two of them landed in the hands of Jenkins that night. He also averaged only 5.8 yards per attempt, which is dramatically lower than his overall season average of 7.3 yards.

Yet the Packers still finished with two pass-catchers who had 80-plus receiving yards. They still piled up 147 rushing yards. And they still rolled along for 406 yards of offense, which dwarfed over the 221 yards produced by the Giants offense.

The result was a 23-16 Packers win. The margin will surely be close again this time, and within a touchdown. But the result will be the same.