Lions vs. Seahawks: Complete Wild Card Gameday Preview

Last time the Detroit Lions won a playoff game, George H. W. Bush was president. That's the first one.

Lovable losers, those Lions are. They've lost eight straight playoff games dating back to 1991, they haven't won a road playoff game since 1957 and they're mired in a three-game losing streak after blowing the NFC North late in the year. 

To reverse course, they’ll have to defy some pretty big odds on Saturday night.

That’s because a Lions team that has come back to earth after overachieving for much of the season has to travel to Seattle to play a Seahawks team with plenty of playoff experience—one that has won 38 of its last 44 home games.

The Seahawks might not pack the same punch they did between 2013 and 2015, but they were still dominant in the Pacific Northwest this season and have playoff pedigree on their side. As a result, a lot of folks expect them to win handily on Wild Card Saturday. 

But in this league, nothing's easy. 

Here's your Lions-Seahawks Wild Card primer. 

Game Specifics

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When: 8:15 p.m. ET

Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle

Network: NBC

Expected Weather: 34 degrees, scattered flurries

Line (via Oddsshark): Seahawks -8

The Seahawks are heavily favored at home, where they're 4-0 in the playoffs with Russell Wilson at quarterback. But the Lions trailed in the fourth quarter 15 times this season and came back to win on eight of those occasions, making Matthew Stafford the first quarterback in NFL history to record eight fourth-quarter comebacks in one campaign. 

The problem is it feels as though the Lions have run out of magic. They spent the first three quarters of the season pulling rabbits out of their hat against weaker opponents before being outscored 90-51 by quality opponents in their final three games. They've also lost five of their last seven on the road and have just one win in Seattle dating back to 1976. 

That explains why the Seahawks are expected to win by more than a touchdown. 

Injury Report

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Breaking down the most significant injuries for Saturday's game...

Detroit Lions

• Linebacker DeAndre Levy (knee)—Questionable
• Offensive tackle Riley Reiff (hip)—Questionable
• Wide receiver Andre Roberts (shoulder)—Questionable
• Center Travis Swanson (concussion)—Questionable

Against a strong pass rush, the Lions offensive line is in trouble. Swanson has missed the last four games with a concussion, and Reiff was a last-minute scratch last week against the Packers. With quarterback Matthew Stafford hurting and the offense lacking balance to begin with, that's a problem. 

On the bright side, the very talented Levy is getting healthier each week. 

Seattle Seahawks

• Defensive tackle Tony McDaniel (concussion)—Out
• Running back C.J. Prosise (shoulder)—Out
• Safety Earl Thomas (leg)—Out
• Wide receiver Tyler Lockett (leg)—Out

The Seahawks continue to miss superstar safety Earl Thomas, who won't return this year. Aside from that, though, they're relatively healthy. They'll miss McDaniel, who showed up suddenly on the injury report this week, but rookie Jarran Reed is a suitable fill-in. 

Prosise didn't likely have a chance at playing, which means Thomas Rawls and Alex Collins will have to carry the load at running back. 

Lions Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

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Good news, Lions fans. Your team doesn't have to deal with superstar Seahawks safety Earl Thomas. 

Bad news, Lions fans. Two of your team's starting offensive linemen are dealing with injuries, limiting their ability to protect your injured quarterback against a pass rush that had the NFL's second-highest sack rate during the regular season. 

Worse news, Lions fans. It'll be difficult to keep that sack-happy defense honest with a running game that ranked 30th in the league in terms of rush yards per game, especially against a defense that allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per carry in 2016. 

You get the point. It's not a good matchup for the Lions, who just haven't been right the last few weeks.

Through 13 games, the first-place Lions were 9-4. Stafford had already set a new single-season record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks and had a passer rating of 97.8. The Lions were averaging 22.7 points per game.

Then Stafford injured a finger on his throwing hand and the schedule got tough, and Detroit averaged just 17.0 points per game while finishing 0-3. No more comebacks for Stafford, who had more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two) while posting a 76.8 rating. His under-pressure completion percentage dropped from 54.2 percent to 40.7 percent, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Stafford still has a solid, deep group of receivers, and Zach Zenner (202 yards from scrimmage the last two weeks) has even given some life to the running game, but that might not be enough to sustain drives consistently against a defense that, even without Thomas, has four Pro Bowlers. 

Who Has the Edge? Seattle, by a margin the size of the Space Needle.

Seahawks Offense vs. Lions Defense

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Good news, Lions fans. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson hasn't been himself this year, due mainly to several early season injuries and an offensive line that—per Pro Football Focus—surrendered an NFC-high 238 pressures in 2016. And it hasn't helped that in the post-Marshawn Lynch era, Seattle has struggled to establish balance on offense. 

Bad news, Lions fans. Your team's pass rush might not have the teeth to take advantage of any of that. The Lions had just eight sacks during the second half of the regular season (no other defense had fewer than 11), and finished with a sack rate of 4.5 (only Oakland was worse, at 4.4), per Pro Football Reference. 

Worse news, Lions fans. There's little evidence the Detroit defense can make up for that elsewhere. The Lions allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete a record 72.7 percent of their passes while posting a 106.5 passer rating against them this season.

Only three teams generated fewer takeaways than the Lions, who haven't forced a turnover since Week 13. And top corner Darius Slay is back from a hamstring injury, but he struggled in Week 17 against Green Bay and still isn't fully healthy. 

The way PFF sees it, Detroit has the second-worst defense in the NFL. Football Outsiders? The worst. Not ideal when going up against a quarterback like Wilson who has come around with eight touchdowns, only one interception and a 112.0 passer rating the last three weeks. 

Seattle's running game continues to sputter with Thomas Rawls and Alex Collins trying to fill Lynch-sized shoes. That line is a problem, but Wilson is the league's best improviser and has been known to rise to January occasions. 

Who Has the Edge? Seattle, by a margin the size of two Space Needles.

Special Teams

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Here's where the Seahawks could miss the injured Tyler Lockett, who was graded by PFF as the second-best all-around return man in the NFL after averaging 26.3 yards per kick return and 8.2 yards per punt return this season.

Only Lockett, Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs and Cordarrelle Patterson of the Vikings averaged more than 25 and eight in those two disciplines. However, grizzled vet return man Devin Hester wasn't far off of either of those plateaus with Baltimore in 2016, finishing with a 24.5 average on kick returns and a 7.2 average returning punts. 

That might explain why the Seahawks signed Hester to replace Lockett this week, one month after the 34-year-old was released by the Ravens. 

Is it worth the risk? Hester fumbled five times in 12 games in Baltimore, with his release coming after a particularly sloppy performance against the Patriots. And he hasn't taken a kick to the house since 2014, so there might not be a lot of upside here. 

Assuming Andre Roberts is good to go despite a shoulder injury—and he played through it last week, so expect him to do the same Saturday night—the Lions have a clear edge in the return game. Roberts had two punt return touchdowns this season, and on the flip side the Lions were one of five coverage units to surrender 6.0 or fewer yards per punt return in 2016. 

The Lions probably also have an edge on field goals with the big-legged Matt Prater, who nailed all seven of his attempts from 50-plus yards this season. Seattle's Steven Hauschka had a slightly higher success rate, but he loaded up on shorter kicks and had only one attempt from 50 or more yards (he made a 53-yarder in October). 

Same deal in the punting game, where Sam Martin of the Lions is one of the best. He and Johnny Hekker of the Rams were the only punters in football to average more than 43 net yards per punt this season, so he has an edge over the solid Jon Ryan.

Who Has the Edge? Detroit, for what it's worth

The Pick

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Seahawks 31, Lions 13

Unless you flipped to this slide without reading the first four or five of them, I can't imagine you're surprised. 

Look, the Seahawks aren't the team they were the last few years, and they could be in real trouble next week in Atlanta. In their last seven games, they've gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win, and that lack of consistency isn't ideal when the margin for error has disappeared.

But again, this is just a sweet matchup for Seattle and a terrible one for the Lions, who truly are overrated after padding their record in September, October, November and early December by beating mediocre teams—Indy, Philly, Los Angeles, Jacksonville, Chicago, Minnesota twice—by the skin of their teeth. 

The Lions have been a lot of fun this season, but they're going to have to wait at least another year before winning their first road playoff game since the Eisenhower administration. 

For our complete Expert Consensus Wild Card Picks, click here.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon