
Week 17 NFL Picks: Predictions and Advice for Season-Finale Vegas Odds
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will be on center stage when they take the field Sunday night.
Nearly all NFL regular-season questions will have been answered by the time the two teams begin their battle at Ford Field in Detroit.
The winner of the NFC North will be determined by this game, and it's also possible that the NFC's second wild-card team will emerge here as well.
With the Green Bay Packers streaking right now, the expectation is that their five-game winning streak will become six games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are in sync, and the defense has straightened itself out after a brutal run midway through the season.
On the opposite side, the Lions have lost two games in a row, to the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys, after a very strong season that saw them build a 9-4 record earlier in December. The tendency is to say that these are the same old Lions and that they will blow it with the season on the line.
But look at those last two opponents. The Cowboys have a 13-2 record, while the Giants' 10-5 mark is tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the second-best record in the conference.
| Chicago at Minnesota | Minnesota (-5) | 41 | Chicago; Under |
| Houston at Tennessee | Tennessee (-3) | 40 | Houston; Under |
| Carolina at Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay (-6) | 46.5 | Tampa Bay; Over |
| Dallas at Philadelphia | Philadelphia (-3.5) | 43 | Dallas; Over |
| Buffalo at N.Y. Jets | Buffalo (-3.5) | 42 | Buffalo; Under |
| New England at Miami | New England (-9.5) | 44.5 | Miami; Over |
| Green Bay at Detroit | Green Bay (-3.5) | 49.5 | Detroit; Over |
| Baltimore at Cincinnati | Cincinnati (-1) | 41.5 | Cincinnati; Under |
| N.Y. Giants at Washington | Washington (-7) | 44.5 | N.Y. Giants; Over |
| Cleveland at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh (-6) | 43.5 | Pittsburgh; Over |
| Jacksonville at Indianapolis | Indianapolis (-4.5) | 47.5 | Indianapolis; Over |
| New Orleans at Atlanta | Atlanta (-7) | 56.5 | Atlanta; Under |
| Seattle at San Francisco | Seattle (-9.5) | 43 | Seattle; Under |
| Kansas City at San Diego | Kansas City (-5.5) | 45 | San Diego; Over |
| Arizona at Los Angeles | Arizona (-6) | 40.5 | Arizona; Under |
| Oakland at Denver | Denver (-1) | 40.5 | Denver; Under |
While the Lions were rather ordinary against the Giants, they stayed with the Cowboys punch for punch on the road in the first 30 minutes.
The Lions and Matthew Stafford may not disappear, though that's what some experts believe. Stafford has completed 65.5 percent of his passes this year with a 25-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he has three potentially dangerous receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin.
They are going up against a Green Bay defense that ranks 29th against the pass. The apparent improvement the Packers have shown in recent wins over Seattle, Chicago and Minnesota will be tested against the Lions.
The Packers are 3.5-point road favorites against the Lions.
That line makes sense if the home team has lost the edge it had earlier in the season and it takes the field quaking at the sight of Rodgers and the Packers.
We don't believe that's the case at all. This will be a close game, and it likely comes down to a Matt Prater field goal. The Lions are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread (according to OddsShark research) in their last six home games. They'll get it done here as well.
New England at Miami
The New England Patriots paid a big price when they did not earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC a year ago. While they had that opportunity late in the year, they lost their last two games to the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, and the Denver Broncos stepped into that breech and took home field away from Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
The Patriots ended up losing the AFC Championship Game to the Broncos on the road.
There has been no letup from the Patriots this year as the season hits the final week of the regular season.
They will earn the No. 1 seed if they beat the Dolphins in Miami this Sunday, and the public is backing them. The Pats are 9.5-point favorites to cover the spread in this road game.
The Dolphins have won 10 games and are currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff structure. They could move up to the No. 5 spot if they beat the Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs lose their season finale to the San Diego Chargers.
Additionally, the Patriots have lost their last three visits to South Florida, and the Dolphins have had an excellent season.
Backup quarterback Matt Moore has not been intimidated since taking over from Ryan Tannehill (knee), and he has a 6-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
This spread is much too heavy. Even if Brady and LeGarrette Blount can open up a lead over the Dolphins at some point in the game, look for the Dolphins to push hard in this game and get it back under the number.
Miami will get this important cover.

Seattle at San Francisco
The Seattle Seahawks have a nasty taste in their mouths.
While they are the NFC West winners, they could have found themselves in a position to win the No. 2 seed in the conference if they could have beaten the Arizona Cardinals at home in Week 16.
That did not happen, as the Cardinals overcame a season of frustration and dictated the pace throughout the game.
The Seahawks are much more likely to end up playing during Wild Card Weekend, but if they can beat the 49ers while the Atlanta Falcons lose to the New Orleans Saints, they can regain the second seed and get the bye.
Both games will be played in the late window Sunday afternoon, so the Seahawks will come out playing hard. They should have full motivation to cover the 9.5-point spread against a troubled San Francisco 49ers team that has only beaten the Los Angeles Rams (twice) this season.
The 'Niners rank 29th on offense and 32nd on defense this year. They lack the talent and motivation to compete in this game, and the Seahawks will win by two touchdowns or more.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.




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