NFL Picks Week 13: Over-Under Vegas Lines, Expert Predictions and Odds

There have been plenty of surprising performances so far in the 2016 NFL season, evoking feelings ranging from pleasant surprise to outright anger depending on which team you hold closest to your heart.

The Oakland Raiders are 9-2, fighting for home-field advantage in the playoffs and quickly putting a decade-plus run of futility behind them under the stewardship of a young quarterback in Derek Carr. 

The Dallas Cowboys own the best record in the league at 10-1 with a rookie backfield of quarterback Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott; the latter is the league's leading rusher and a legitimate MVP candidate.

On the flip side, several of last year's stalwarts—including the Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers—are flailing and look like long shots to reach the postseason.

All of this is to say is that making predictions early in the season meant plenty of misses based on misconceptions, quick evaluation and adoption of the emerging trends. 

Now that it's Week 13 and most franchises are known commodities at this point, the job is a little easier, and yet surprises will come each and every week. 

If you're in need of guidance for the first games of the crucial month of December, here's a look at the latest lines, spreads and expert predictions for Week 13. Expert picks are straight up, not against the spread.

Matchup	Over/Under	Stephen White, SB Nation	K.C. Joyner, ESPN	Dave Richard, CBS Sports	Steve Mariucci, NFL Network	FiveThirtyEight
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Minnesota Vikings	44	Vikings	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys 54%
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-1)	43.5	49ers	Bears	49ers	49ers	Bears 65%
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)	53.5	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints 52%
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)	45	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers 63%
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)	49	Chiefs	Falcons	Falcons	Chiefs	Chiefs 52%
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3)	40.5	Ravens	Ravens	Dolphins	Ravens	Ravens 56%
Denver Broncos (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars	40.5	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos 79%
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13.5)	44.5	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots 86%
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals	41.5	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Eagles	Bengals 56%
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3)	48	Bills	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders 59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)	47.5	Buccaneers	Chargers	Buccaneers	Chargers	Chargers 58%
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)	49.5	Cardinals	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Cardinals 58%
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)	48	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Giants	Steelers 64%
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)	44.5	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks 71%
Indianapolis Colts (-2) at New York Jets	49	Jets	Colts	Colts	Jets	Jets 58%

Hobbled Patriots (-13.5) Still a Good Bet To Cover Against Rams

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

While the league has been filled with surprising upstarts and falls from grace this season, the New England Patriots have remained bastions of dependability by once again putting together a fine, playoff-worthy season.

The Pats picked up their ninth win of the season in Week 12 against the New York Jets, despite playing well below their normal capabilities. A knee injury hampered Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski had to leave the game with a back injury in the second quarter. 

Per CBS Boston, both players missed practice Wednesday, as did wide receiver Julian Edelman.

Brady will likely fight on and play Sunday. Edelman's situation is less clear, as he was absent "for reasons yet to be explained."

As for Gronkowski, the Boston Herald's Karen Guregian believes the "Patriots will probably play it safe and not rush him back against the Rams." 

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

A Gronk-less offense would be a welcome development for a Rams defense that is coming off a desultory display in a 49-21 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 12, but it won't be enough for this team to flip the script and pull off a win.

Martellus Bennett has filled in admirably for the oft-injured Gronkowski at tight end this season, reeling in 42 catches for 540 yards and four scores. He too is nursing injuries but managed three catches for 22 yards against the Jets. The Patriots have also received a boost from rookie wideout Malcolm Mitchell, who has scored three times in the past two weeks.

If Brady is having trouble connecting with the likes of Bennett and Mitchell, the Patriots could rely more on the run game.

LeGarrette Blount is dependable and has 191 rushing yards on just 30 carries in his last two games. New England is also working Dion Lewis back into the fold after activating him from the PUP list two weeks ago. Lewis has been productive with the 18 touches he's garnered in two games; the Pats could finally be ready to ratchet up his involvement in both the passing and running phase. 

The Rams have a strong defense overall but are nevertheless giving up 4.3 yards per carry and 112.3 rushing yards per game to opponents. Both marks place them in the bottom half of the league, per ESPN.com.

Bill Feig/Associated Press

Rams rookie quarterback Jared Goff provided fans with hope for the future by putting up 214 yards, three touchdowns and one pick against the Saints, but he'll likely have a much tougher time against New England. Your local star prep quarterback might fancy a crack at the Saints' laughable secondary; the same can't be said for New England's, even though it's not necessarily one of the league's best units.

Goff's game was a tale of two halves in New Orleans. He threw for 167 yards and three TDs in the first half but managed just 47 yards and a pick in the second. NFL.com's Chris Wesseling noted the offense hasn't moved the ball well under Goff, and New England has been a tough venue for rookie signal-callers:

"

His second-half possessions at New Orleans consisted of three punts, an interception and a failed fourth-down conversion. He was responsible for more turnovers last week (two) than Tom Brady has authored all season. Through two games, Goff's offense is averaging just 237 yards compared to Keenum's 308-yard average in nine starts.

Dak Prescott's extraordinary performance notwithstanding, growing pains are the norm for first-year quarterbacks.

Expect those struggles to continue at New England, where opposing rookie quarterbacks are 0-7 with a 52.0 completion rate, a 4:14 TD-to-INT ratio and a 51.7 passer rating since 2000, per NFL Research.

"

With Todd Gurley still finding it difficult to squeeze his way through narrow running lanes and Goff likely to face some of Bill Belichick's most dastardly defensive schemes, a hobbled New England team can and should still win this game by two touchdowns at home.

Take the Over in Texans-Packers

The over-under line for the Houston Texans' road trip to play the Green Bay Packers is at 45 points, a fairly pedestrian, middle-of-the-road line. It's always tough to pick these, especially when a fairly comprehensive win that could end with plenty of clock-eating drives for the home team is on the table. However, expect this game to edge over that line just barely.

Corey Perrine/Getty Images

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers looks back to his fearsome, world-conquering self (or at least something close to it) with 664 passing yards and five touchdowns over the past two games.

Wide receiver Davante Adams has established himself as a legitimate scoring threat, finding the end zone twice against Philly. Over the past five games, Jordy Nelson has done a fine job as both a possession receiver (34 receptions) and reliable scorer (four TDs). 

The Packers running game has devolved into a crawl, but with Rodgers at his best, the Packers should still hang a significant number of points on Houston. They put up 27 on Philadelphia, which owns one of the league's top scoring defenses this season.

The Packers might've been able to score more had the Eagles been more competitive, but there was no need for Green Bay to air it out and tack on more points at the end.

Assuming the Packers can score just as much against the Texans, Houston will still have to tally a couple of touchdowns to put this game over 45 points. Houston is coming off a 21-13 loss to the San Diego Chargers, a game in which Brock Osweiler tossed three interceptions—one on a game-ending Hail Mary—and no touchdowns.

Bob Levey/Getty Images

He's been nothing but disappointing this season, and the Chargers game exemplified his struggles. Osweiler showed poor accuracy at times, was late on throws and tried to force the ball into tight windows with little success.

For all his struggles, Osweiler should have an easier time this week against a Packers defense that is allowing quarterbacks a 102.5 rating this year, per ESPN.com. Osweiler is confident he can find great success in Green Bay, according to the Houston Chronicle's Aaron Wilson:

"

I don't think there's ever been a successful NFL season that didn't have adversity somewhere in that season. So, I really could not be more excited for the challenge this week, going to Lambeau Field, a very difficult place to play on the road. I couldn't be more excited about the opportunity at hand to truly write a great ending to this story.

"

With talented pass-catchers such as DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in the fold and the Packers cornerbacks proving to be an abysmal, injury-ridden bunch this season, Osweiler should find the end zone once or twice this week. 

The Packers did hold Carson Wentz and the Eagles to 13 points in Week 12, but Philly was without its full fleet of running backs and curiously shied away from giving Wendell Smallwood (nine carries, 37 yards) the ball.

Houston can turn to the excellent Lamar Miller (4.2 yards per carry) on the ground to keep the Packers defense honest and perhaps even give a couple of extra carries to Akeem Hunt if Miller's nagging injuries prove to be limiting. 

Assuming Osweiler avoids implosion and the Texans can show balance on offense, they could get two or three scores in this contest and push the total score into the high 40s or low 50s.

Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, Dec. 1 at noon ET.