Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions, Advice for Latest Vegas Spreads, Odds and Props
A number of factors were going against the Dallas Cowboys as they prepared for their Week 10 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In addition to playing on the road, they were facing a Pittsburgh team with a powerful offense that needed the game badly. The Steelers had lost three games in a row, but a win would give them the same 5-4 record as the first-place Baltimore Ravens.
The Steelers have perhaps the most dangerous QB-RB-WR trio in the league in Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and while the Cowboys had been playing respectable defense (ranked 12th in total yards allowed per game, according to cbssports.com), they didn't appear to have the personnel to match up with that threesome.
The Cowboys were rolling along with a seven-game winning streak, and they didn't care about how much the Steelers needed the game. They traded punches with the Steelers for 60 minutes and then came up with the end-of-game haymaker when rookie Ezekiel Elliott ran through a huge hole and scooted 32 yards into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown in a 35-30 victory.
That's a huge lesson for handicappers. There is no let-up with the NFC East-leading Cowboys, and this week they return home for a game with the aforementioned Ravens.
| New Orleans at Carolina | CAR -3 | 52 | New Orleans; Under |
| Chicago at N.Y. Giants | NYG -7 | 45 | N.Y. Giants; Under |
| Arizona at Minnesota | E | 40 | Minnesota; Over |
| Baltimore at Dallas | DAL -7 | 45 | Dallas; Over |
| Tennessee at Indianapolis | IND -3 | 52.5 | Indianapolis; Over |
| Buffalo at Cincinnati | CIN -2.5 | 47.5 | Cincinnati; Under |
| Pittsburgh at Cleveland | PIT -8 | 46.5 | Pittsburgh; Under |
| Jacksonville at Detroit | DET -6 | 47 | Detroit; Over |
| Tampa Bay at Kansas City | KC -7.5 | 44.5 | Kansas City; Under |
| Miami at L.A. Rams | MIA -1.5 | 40 | Miami; Under |
| Philadelphia at Seattle | SEA -6.5 | 44 | Philadelphia; Over |
| New England at San Francisco | NE -13 | 50.5 | New England; Under |
| Green Bay at Washington | WAS -2.5 | 50.5 | Green Bay; Over |
| Houston at Oakland | OAK -5.5 | 46 | Oakland; Over |
Baltimore does not have the same kind of high-powered offensive weapons as some of the best teams in the league. The Ravens rank 25th on offense, according to cbssports.com, as strong-armed Joe Flacco (nine touchdowns and nine interceptions) is not having his best year. The RB-WR duo of Terrance West and Mike Wallace is below average.
The Baltimore defense has moved to the top of the league in yards allowed, and there is a notable improvement in their tackling with the addition of former San Diego Charger safety Eric Weddle, who has 45 stops and nine passes defensed.
But this is a different Cowboys team, one with a strong killer instinct. Dallas is a seven-point favorite, according to Odds Shark, and the Cowboys are not going to let an ordinary Baltimore offensive team stay in the game. The Cowboys will get the job done in the fourth quarter once again, as they will win the game and get the cover.
New England at San Francisco
After losing their Week 10 confrontation with the Seattle Seahawks at home on Sunday night, the business-like New England Patriots travel to the West Coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Pats have won all four of their road games, as Bill Belichick's team has not been challenged when playing away from home since their Week 1 game at Arizona. Since then, they have rolled over Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.
The Pats know how to prepare equally for all 16 games on their regular-season schedule. They never place too much emphasis on any one game, whether they win or lose, and that allows the Pats to take a deep breath and move ahead to the next game.
In the case of the 49ers, the Pats have the edge on offense, defense and special teams, and they are 13-point favorites even though they are playing more than 3,000 miles from home.
While Rob Gronkowski (chest) may not be able to play or perform at his best, the Pats simply have too many weapons with LeGarrette Blount, Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett for the Niners to stay close.
The Pats may have a few holes on defense and that's why they rank 19th against the pass, according to cbssports.com, but the 49ers are simply not a threat. Chip Kelly's team has not figured it out, and they have dropped eight straight games since a Week 1 victory against the Los Angeles Rams.
No team is worse statistically than the Niners, as they rank 29th in offensive yards gained and 32nd in yards allowed.
The Patriots will roll and get the road cover, and then it will be on to the New York Jets in Week 12.
Houston vs. Oakland (Mexico City)
The NFL ventures out of the country for a game in Mexico, and this Monday night encounter offers the fans south of the border to view the up-and-coming Oakland Raiders against a Houston Texans team that can be somewhat tough to figure out.
The Raiders have passed nearly all of their tests this season, and they registered a convincing 30-20 victory over the Denver Broncos in Week 9 before their bye last week.
The Raiders are a confident bunch, and that victory should only make quarterback Derek Carr feel even better than he did before that game.
He has powerful weapons in running back Latavius Murray and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Their versatility makes the Raiders difficult to slow down.
The Texans are an up-and-down team that often disappoints against quality opponents, and that's clearly what the Raiders have become. There are still a number of questions about quarterback Brock Osweiler, and he may have a difficult time answering them against Oakland.
The Raiders are 5.5-point favorites in this game, and we don't see Houston head coach Bill O'Brien coming up with the game plan to slow down the Oakland attack.
The Raiders get the win and cover.
Prop Bet
This is not a season where the 1972 Miami Dolphins were under any threat. The only team to go undefeated and win the Super Bowl saw the Carolina Panthers reel off 14 straight wins last year before they lost for the first time, but no team came close this year.
The Minnesota Vikings started the season with a 5-0 record before losing their first game in Week 7. (They have now dropped four in a row.)
However, the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are under attack. That first-year expansion team went 0-14 under head coach John Robinson, and that team was joined by the 2008 Detroit Lions, who were 0-16.
Those teams could be joined by this year's Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas is offering a prop bet on whether the Browns will go winless this season.
Bettors can risk $100 to earn a profit of $150 if they say the Browns will go 0-16 to join the Bucs and Lions, according to Odds Shark.
The opposite side of that bet is not offered.
All lines, spreads and betting information courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of Nov. 17.
.jpg?w=480 "NFL Draft Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Fans React to Simpson Pick 😱")
.jpg?w=600 "McVay's Reaction to Ty Simpson Pick 😅")
.jpg?w=600 "Vet Wideout Landing Spots After Draft 📍")
.jpg?w=600 "Full Eagles-Cowboys Trade 🤝")