Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Stretching back to nearly their founding, the Baltimore Ravens have beaten the New York Jets eight times in a row, going 7-1 against the spread in the process. In a battle between two teams trying to end losing skids, the Ravens and the Jets meet Sunday in New Jersey.

Point Spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL Pick, Via Odds Shark Computer: 21.3-22.1 Jets. (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Ravens Can Cover the Spread:

Baltimore was off to a 3-0 start to this season. However, now the team has lost three games in a row following last week's 27-23 defeat against the New York Giants, also at MetLife Stadium. But those three losses have come by a total of 11 points.

The Ravens took an early 10-0 lead on New York last week and later trailed 20-16. They took a 23-20 lead on a short Terrance West touchdown run with just over two minutes to go but then gave up a 66-yard Eli Manning-to-Odell Beckham Jr. scoring connection just 30 seconds later. Baltimore then drove to the Giants 24-yard line in the final minute, but the Ravens stalled on five straight Joe Flacco incompletions.

For the day, the Ravens won both time of possession by a 35/25 margin and the turnover battle 3-0. But on one of the key sequences of the game early in the fourth quarter, Baltimore came up totally empty on a 1st-and-goal from the New York 5-yard line—a failure that proved costly in the end.

Two weeks ago, the Ravens lost to Washington 16-10, giving up a touchdown on a long punt return. They came up empty on a fake field goal, fumbling away an interception through the Redskins end zone and ending the game just outside the Washington 20-yard line. And three weeks ago, Baltimore outgained the Oakland Raiders by 150 yards but lost 28-27. A few plays here and there, and the Ravens could be 4-2 or even 5-1.

Why the Jets Can Cover the Spread:

The case for the Jets is a bit harder to make. Perhaps the change at quarterback can jump start this outfit.

New York started this season 1-1, with a one-point loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and a victory at Buffalo. Since then, the Jets have lost four straight, including a disheartening 28-3 defeat at Arizona last week. New York got thoroughly outplayed by the Cardinals and eventually had to pull quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Geno Smith, seeking redemption, gets the start behind center this week.

The Jets are at their best when they're running the ball; they outrushed their first three opponents this season, winning one of those games and nearly winning another. If they could just start moving the ball on the ground again, then they could turn their ship around.

Smart Pick:

Neither of these teams inspires much betting confidence at the moment; together they've lost seven games in a row. But the team that wins the ground battle is most likely to win this game and cover this spread, and that team is most likely to be Baltimore.

Betting Trends:

The Ravens are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Jets.

The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Jets.

The Ravens are 0-6 SU in their last six games in October.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.

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