NFL Picks Week 7: Highlighting Best Vegas Odds and Expert Predictions
At this point in the NFL season, it's fair to say most teams are beginning to show their true colors.
Hot starters are running out of fuel, and early stumblers are getting their feet under themselves. Teams that were always expected to do well—such as the New England Patriots—are thriving, while injury-stricken squads such as the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys are proving to be shockingly robust. The squads with middling talent are, well, mucking around in the middle of their divisions.
However, there's still plenty of time for a few twists in the drama, as no team is safe atop the standings, and no bottom feeder has to accept its fate this season.
The oddsmakers are honing in on which teams can and cannot be trusted, as are the experts around the web who make predictions every week. If you're looking for a bit of guidance as you take stock of what each team has done so far and make your own predictions, here's a look at Week 7's best odds and expert picks.
| Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) | 46 | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers, 81% |
| New York Giants (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (in London) | 44 | Giants | Rams | Giants | Rams, 52% |
| Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) | 48 | Titans | Titans | Colts | Colts, 52% |
| New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) | 50.5 | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs, 80% |
| Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) | 45.5 | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals, 82% |
| Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (even) | 40.5 | Ravens | Ravens | Jets | Jets, 59% |
| Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) | 48.5 | Raiders | Raiders | Jaguars | Raiders, 51% |
| Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins | 44 | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills, 64% |
| Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (even) | 49.5 | Lions | Redskins | Lions | Lions, 56% |
| Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles | 40.5 | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings, 57% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers | 46.5 | Buccaneers | 49ers | Buccaneers | 49ers, 55% |
| San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) | 53.5 | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons, 74% |
| New England Patriots (-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 45.5 | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Steelers, 54% |
| Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1) | 43.5 | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Cardinals, 51% |
| Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-7) | 40.5 | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos, 71% |
San Diego Can Keep Things Close Against Atlanta (-6.5)
The San Diego Chargers are not as bad as their 2-4 record makes them out to be. Yes, they're awful at protecting leads in the fourth quarter and have suffered several season-ending injuries to key players, but this team has been competitive in every game this year and should fare well against the Atlanta Falcons.
Philip Rivers is once again making do while his offense crumbles around him, throwing 12 touchdowns against three picks this year. He should do just fine against a Falcons defense that's allowed 14 passing touchdowns and a 99.1 quarterback rating, per ESPN.com.
Rivers has emerging targets in tight end Hunter Henry and wide receiver Tyrell Williams, not to mention a secondary-stretching veteran in Travis Benjamin. With Melvin Gordon providing a scoring boost on the ground, the Bolts look equipped to put some points up against Atlanta.
The Falcons are expected to light up the scoreboard at home, as they lead the league in both yards and points per game. Julio Jones should have no trouble getting open against a depleted Chargers secondary, and Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman are threats both on the ground and out of the backfield.
The Chargers will be hard-pressed to stop this high-flying attack, but they are coming off an encouraging performance in which they held the Denver Broncos to a mere 13 points.
Rookie linebacker and defensive end Joey Bosa has been a disruptive force in his first two games, adding another dimension to a pass rush that already boasts the effective Melvin Ingram. Rookie linebacker Jatavis Brown has also shown flashes early with three sacks on the season and a 14-tackle performance against the Broncos.
If the young guns can create pressure and force Matt Ryan into a turnover or two, San Diego should have little trouble converting extra opportunities into points.
Bettors will note that the Falcons have won by seven points three times this season, but the Chargers haven't lost by more than six. Yes, that's mostly due to them having the lead in the fourth quarter and subsequently giving it away, but we're talking about them covering, not necessarily stealing the game.
Odds Shark (h/t SB Nation) noted "the Falcons have struggled as a favorite recently with an 0-9 ATS record in their last nine games as a favorite and an 0-5 SU record in their last five games as a home favorite per the Odds Shark NFL Database." This does not bode well for a team that has arguably overachieved to this point in the season.
Look for the Chargers and Falcons to provide one of the league's more thrilling contests in Week 7.
Oakland Makes for a Fine Underdog Pick Against Jacksonville (-1)
While we're on the subject of underdogs, the Oakland Raiders make for a fine upset pick in Week 7 on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Raiders are coming off a deflating 26-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs but are still 4-2 and tied for the AFC West lead with Denver. Derek Carr has been brilliant for much of the season, throwing for 1,608 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions and targeting a pair of talented wideouts in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper.
DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard have performed admirably in place of an injured Latavius Murray, who returned to practice this week.
The Jaguars will have to hope that a pass rush led by rookie Yannick Ngakoue (four sacks) can disrupt the Raiders' aerial assault and that rookie corner Jalen Ramsey can shut down Cooper. ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez tracked his progress against the Chicago Bears in Week 6:
"The Jaguars have put the fifth overall pick on the opponents' best receiver each week, and he has handled the challenge well. He had a rough start against Alshon Jeffery last Sunday, but made some adjustments at halftime and shut him down in the second half. Jeffery had six catches for 90 yards in the first half, but managed just one for 3 yards in the second after Ramsey played him more physical at the line of scrimmage. Ramsey also broke up a fourth-down pass to Jeffery to seal the Jaguars' victory. He will draw Amari Cooper this week.
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Oakland's leaky defense is still an issue, with Alex Smith completing 19 of 22 passes and Spencer Ware racking up 131 yards on the ground in Week 6. Thankfully, the Jaguars have had trouble scoring so far this year (21st in the NFL) and managed a mere 17 points in a Week 6 win over the Bears.
The Jags can't get a running game going with T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory, which means Khalil Mack and Co. can chase after Blake Bortles to try to protect a weak secondary. Bortles has thrown seven interceptions and coughed up two fumbles this year, and few would pick him to best Carr in a quarterback duel.
Even if the Raiders do get behind on the road, they can rely on Carr to bail them out. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he's been a consistent provider of late-game heroics:
This game should be close, as the Jaguars are probably better than their 2-3 record and minus-17 point differential suggest, but the Raiders have the leadership and offensive firepower to eke out a win on the road.
Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Oct. 20. Expert picks are courtesy of FoxSports.com, ESPN.com, SB Nation and FiveThirtyEight.
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