NFL Week 6 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions
Even more amazing than Vegas' ability to put lines to different matchups is the ability for our friends in the desert to come up with a total for each game that usually ends up coming close.
Last week, the NFL played 14 games from Thursday to Sunday. Seven went under the Vegas point total. The other seven hit the over, per TeamRankings.
Wizardry.
Figuring out which game is going to be a shootout and which game will be a war of attrition has benefits beyond gambling, though. Picking out the scorefests in the lineup is great for targeting fantasy football options for both daily fantasy leagues and start 'em, sit 'em situations.
Here is the complete slate in terms of over-unders and a look at some matchups to consider for fantasy purposes based on the latest point totals from Odds Shark.
| Denver at San Diego | DEN -2.5 | 45.5 | DEN/Over |
| L.A. Rams at Detroit | DET -2.5 | 43.5 | DET/Under |
| San Francisco at Buffalo | BUF -7 | 44.5 | BUF/Under |
| Jacksonville at Chicago | CHI -1.5 | 47 | CHI/Over |
| Cleveland at Tennessee | TEN -5.5 | 45.5 | TEN/Under |
| Philadelphia at Washington | WAS -1.5 | 45 | PHI/Over |
| Baltimore at N.Y. Giants | NYG -3 | 44.5 | BAL/Under |
| Carolina at New Orleans | CAR -3 | N/A | NO |
| Pittsburgh at Miami | PIT -6.5 | 48 | PIT/Over |
| Cincinnati at New England | NE -8 | 47 | NE/Under |
| Kansas City at Oakland | OAK -1.5 | 47 | OAK/Over |
| Atlanta at Seattle | SEA -7 | 46 | ATL/Under |
| Dallas at Green Bay | GB -4.5 | 47 | GB/Under |
| Indianapolis at Houston | HOU -3 | 46 | IND/Under |
| N.Y. Jets at Arizona | ARI -6.5 | 47 | ARI/Over |
Games to Target
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders are for real, and it has little to do with Khalil Mack and the defense. The Silver and Black are 4-1 on the season, but with the exception of a 17-10 road win over the Tennessee Titans, every game has been a shootout.
Derek Carr has already taken a leap forward from last season. He's Pro Football Focus' second-highest-rated quarterback thus far in the season:
Carr throwing to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree has already developed into a three-headed monster that has accounted for 811 yards and six touchdowns.
Now Oakland gets a Kansas City defense that might have a good reputation but hasn't exactly performed well on the road this season. The Chiefs gave up 19 points in a loss to the Houston Texans and most recently surrendered a whopping 43 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger torched the Chiefs secondary to the tune of 300 yards and five touchdowns in that game, and Carr has the ability to do the same.
The Raiders are ranked 29th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA metric, so it won't be surprising if Alex Smith and Co. are able to score with the Raiders offense at first. However, this one should devolve into a shootout fairly quickly.
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals
OK, so this one isn't necessarily as much about a game to target as a team to target.
The Arizona Cardinals should have a breakout performance this week. After a rocky 2-3 start that featured way more Drew Stanton than any team should be forced to endure, the stars are aligning for the Cardinals offense to hit its stride.
The offense did put up 33 last week against the San Francisco 49ers with Stanton completing just 11 passes, but now it will take on one of the worst pass defenses in the league, as illustrated in the video below:
According to Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com, Carson Palmer has been cleared to practice after missing last week due to a concussion. Expect a big day for the quarterback and his receivers against the Jets defense.
The Cardinals defense makes it a little difficult to love the Jets in terms of fantasy points, but it did just surrender 21 to the lowly 49ers offense and 33 two weeks ago to the Buffalo Bills. It isn't out of the question for Arizona to give up some points to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets.
Game to Avoid
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
With Odell Beckham Jr. and Eli Manning leading the way, the Giants offense was supposed to be explosive this season.
Thus far, that hasn't been the case.
Beckham has struggled this year, topping 100 yards just once and finally scoring his first touchdown of the season last week against the Green Bay Packers.
But even Beckham finding the end zone couldn't cure the Giants' offensive woes. They scored just 16 points in their third consecutive loss.
Beckham believes the offense is too one-dimensional right now.
"Like I said, we need to make it more than one-dimensional," the receiver said, per Giants.com. "We have to come out and execute no matter what it is; make it work and get what you can get on each and every play. We will be all right."
It isn't often that a receiver alludes to his team's need to run the ball more, but Beckham has a point. The Giants are running the ball only 35 percent of the time.
The problem is that even with a low-volume rushing attack, the Giants are still inefficient. They average just 3.8 yards per carry.
The Ravens aren't likely to let them get back on track either. The Ravens are fifth in defensive DVOA and just held the Washington Redskins to 60 yards on 20 carries.
The Ravens aren't so successful on offense right now, though. They're 23rd in the league in points per game at just 18.8.
This should be a defensive battle without much value for fantasy owners, as neither team has much to brag about offensively up to this point.
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