Breaking Down Each NFL Division Race After Week 5

Don't be alarmed, but we're about one-third of the way through the regular season with Week 5 in the books, outside of Monday Night Football. That means, like it or not, the playoff race is starting to take shape.

Over the last three years, 21 of the 24 teams to make the playoffs have had double-digit wins, meaning that hitting the 10-win mark is near mandatory for a postseason shot. Already, we have a team with five losses and five others with four losses, making those squads' margin of error for the remainder of the season near impossible to keep up with if they want to make a winter run in the playoffs.

With that in mind, we'll go division by division, breaking down what the landscape for each of the NFL's eight pieces looks like going into Week 6 of the season.

Which teams are in the driver's seat? Which teams are a lap or two behind? Which teams might rise? Which teams might fall?

We'll go over all of those questions as we sort through the league from a big-picture standpoint.

AFC East

David Richard/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Loss
New England	4	1
Buffalo	3	2
New York Jets	1	4
Miami	1	4

You're going to be shocked about this, but the New England Patriots are in the driver's seat in the AFC East. After dropping a game to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, the team rebounded with a 33-13 win against the Cleveland Browns, keeping them a step ahead of the Bills, who own that head-to-head tiebreaker at the moment.

Now, it's hard to gauge how talented a team is in a vacuum against the Browns, as Cleveland is the only winless team in the league, but the fact that the Patriots have a three-game lead over the non-Buffalo teams in the division, mostly off the back of their second- and third-string quarterbacks, is a testament to the squad's overall talent.

With Tom Brady back, New England is the clear favorite in the East, even if the Bills are on a three-game winning streak after firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Since then, Buffalo has a plus-42 point differential, which for the year would rank fourth overall in the NFL.

The Bills shot themselves in the foot by losing two games in five days to start the 2016 season, but they've rebounded. Right now, they wouldn't make the AFC playoffs, due to a head-to-head loss to the Baltimore Ravens, but they are just a tiebreaker away, mere inches, from Ryan's first postseason team 2010.

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are three games behind the leaders in the East. Last season, of the 13 teams to start the season with a 1-3 record or worse, 11 couldn't get a winning record, a virtual prerequisite to making a Wild Card Weekend game.

The Jets and Dolphins, because of their situation at quarterback, might as well start their draft evaluation process early.

AFC North

Don Wright/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Losses
Pittsburgh	4	1
Baltimore	3	2
Cincinnati	2	3
Cleveland	0	5

After going down 13-7 to the New York Jets early in their Week 5 matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers turned on their jets, ripping off 24 straight points to end the day with a 31-14 victory. Now at 4-1, the Steelers' single blemish on the season came against the NFC's Philadelphia Eagles, a cross-state rival.

Pittsburgh hasn't had a losing season since 2003, the year before quarterback Ben Roethlisberger became the NFL's offensive rookie of the year. Unless they completely turn heel and go 3-8 or worse down the stretch, that shouldn't change.

Right behind the Steelers in the North is their main rival, the Baltimore Ravens. Under the guidance of quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have won two divisional titles since 2008, coming one short of tying Pittsburgh and Cincinnati with the most banners over that time span.

The Ravens are one of the cardiac teams of this season, and they've shown us how close to a flip of a coin one-score games are in the NFL. They've played in five one-score games in total, winning their first three by a combined 13 points, just to lose their last two back-to-back by a combined seven points.

With two matchups with Pittsburgh still on their slate, they still control their own destiny. But when you take into account point differential, the Steelers, whose plus-46 mark ranks third in the NFL, should be considered the favorites in the division by a mile over the Ravens, whose plus-six point differential is behind the 1-4 San Diego Chargers.

The Cincinnati Bengals, who have won two of the last three North titles, are the other franchise still involved in this divisional race. The Bengals, who have the second-worst point differential of a 2-3 team, have played in a single one-score game only once this season.

Consistency is going to be a key for them, as they won two games against squads with a combined 2-8 record, but they were outscored 81-47 against the Steelers, Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys, who as of now are leading their divisions.

At 0-5, the Cleveland Browns are basically out of any postseason conversation.

AFC South

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Losses
Houston	3	2
Tennessee	2	3
Indianapolis	2	3
Jacksonville	1	3

Since Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts made it to the Super Bowl in 2009, the AFC South has produced only one team, the 2014 Colts, that was able to make it out of the AFC divisional round. Last year, the 9-7 Houston Texans were the division's postseason team, which they wore as a badge of pride during their 30-0 blowout loss at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The story of the South since Manning's neck surgery has been simple: There isn't much difference between the top and bottom of the division, and it's not because it's a strong division.

As it stands right now, the difference between the Texans, who have the lead in the South, and the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are last in the standings, is a single loss, making this division the tightest race in the NFL.

As the NFL's lone division without a one- or no-loss team at the top of the division five weeks into the season, it's hard to rule out anyone in the South from winning a banner. Every team is currently in control of their destiny.

AFC West

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Losses
Oakland	4	1
Denver	4	1
Kansas City	2	2
San Diego	1	4

While the AFC North has three franchises that are regularly in the playoffs, the AFC West might have the most-loaded division in the AFC from top to bottom. Even the third and fourth teams in the division have had moments of brilliance through five weeks.

For example, from midway through the third quarter of Week 1 through the end of Week 3, the Kansas City Chiefs outscored their opponents 66-25 on the way to a 2-1 record. The problem with the AFC West is week-to-week consistency, as the Chiefs' 43-14 loss in Week 4 to the Pittsburgh Steelers proved.

The Oakland Raiders, who are tied for first in the West with a 4-1 record with the Denver Broncos, have a plus-five point differential. The San Diego Chargers, who are dead last in the West with a 1-4 record, have the second-best point differential of plus-10.

All four of these teams have the talent to get into the playoffs, but with the Chargers three games behind the Raiders and Broncos, it's highly unlikely that they'll be able to make up enough ground to win the title, even as they enter Week 6.

The Broncos, coming off a Super Bowl win with the fourth-best point differential in the NFL, should be viewed as the leader to host a home playoff game this winter, but nothing is etched in stone just yet. 

NFC East

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Losses
Dallas	4	1
Philadelphia	3	1
Washington	3	2
New York Giants	2	3

The NFC East is led by a pair of rookie quarterbacks, as it stands today. 2016 second overall pick Carson Wentz and 2016 fourth-round pick Dak Prescott have combined for a 7-2 start to their first seasons in the NFL.

The Cowboys have a half-win lead on the Eagles, who have played one fewer game than Dallas. Despite that fact, Philadelphia, which just lost its first game of the 2016 season, currently leads the NFL in point differential.

If you asked 100 random fans who should be the favorite in the NFC East as of this moment, the result would likely be a split down the middle between those who think the Cowboys are a slim margin better than the Eagles and those who think the Eagles are a slim margin better than the Cowboys.

The other two teams in the East are on completely different trajectories. The Washington Redskins have won three straight games, while the New York Giants have lost three straight games.

The Redskins, despite their 3-2 record, are one of three teams, along with the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams, to post a winning record despite having a negative point differential. There is a clear separation in talent between Dallas-Philadelphia and Washington-New York, even if the records may not paint that picture.

If the season ended today, Dallas and Philadelphia would bring home two of the NFC's six playoff slots, and it shouldn't surprise a soul if one of the two wild-card spots in the conference goes to the East.

NFC North

Andy Clayton-King/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Losses
Minnesota	5	0
Green Bay	3	1
Detroit	2	3
Chicago	1	4

The NFL's only undefeated team resides in the NFC North. Like the NFC East, don't be surprised if the NFC North ends up with both a home playoff game and one of the two conference's wild-card spots.

The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers are a combined 7-0 when they aren't facing each other this season. On top of that, the 5-0 Vikings have the second-best point differential in the NFL with a plus-56 mark, as the defense-led team has ran through the league through five weeks.

The Packers are two wins behind Minnesota, but a head-to-head one-score loss with the Vikings and an early bye week waters them down a bit in record. They still control their own destiny, and they were one play away from flipping positions with the Vikings, but losing that Week 2 matchup could hurt them down the line, if they aren't able to win their next battle with Minnesota at Lambeau Field.

While the Vikings and Packers lead the division, there's a healthy middle-class team in the NFC North in the Detroit Lions. In five consecutive weeks this season, the Lions have played one-score games. With a 2-3 record, Detroit is about playing to their talent, where if they get hot, they might be able to sneak into the playoffs, but it's a long shot.

Then there's the lower class of the division: the Chicago Bears. The only teams with worse point differentials than the Bears have a combined 2-12 record this season.

If you write Chicago off as a non-playoff team, I don't think anyone would blame you. You basically have to win double-digit games to make it to the postseason in this league.

NFC South

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Losses
Atlanta	4	1
Tampa Bay	1	3
Carolina	1	3
New Orleans	1	3

No team has as big of a lead in their division as the Atlanta Falcons, who have four wins relative to the rest of the NFC South's combined three wins. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers will be facing each other on Monday Night Football, meaning at least one squad will have two wins entering Week 6.

Either way, the Falcons are the clear-cut elite team in the South. Not only have they gone on a 4-1 run, establishing themselves as one of the better offenses in the NFL, but they have beaten both the AFC champion Denver Broncos and the NFC champion Panthers already this season.

To expect any other team from the NFC South to make the playoffs is a stretch. Last year, the only teams to make the playoffs after starting with a 1-3 record were the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans. The Texans lost to the Chiefs by a score of 30-0 in the Wild Card Round, which was followed by a Kansas City playoff exit the next week.

The Buccaneers are a high-variance team that tend to lose big when they do end up down. The Saints are a shootout team that at best have a 50-50 chance to pull out games in the fourth quarter.

If there is a team that will make a miraculous comeback to get over .500 at the end of the season, it's going to be the Panthers, who right now have only been able to register two sacks by their starting defensive line in four games, after claiming one of the best pass defenses of 2015 on the way to a Super Bowl bid.

NFC West

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Team	Wins	Losses
Seattle	3	1
Los Angeles	3	2
Arizona	2	3
San Francisco	1	4

Last year, the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals both made the playoffs, with the Cardinals going as deep as the NFC title game. With the Seahawks in the division lead at this point, and their 2013 and 2014 Super Bowl trips, it's safe to assume that they'll be in the mix not only as a potential postseason team but as a title contender.

The Seahawks did lose to the Los Angeles Rams head-to-head in Memorial Coliseum, but the Rams have one more loss than Seattle does at this point, though the Seahawks just had a bye week. With that being said, if you look at point differential, there may not be a more fraudulent three-win team in the NFL than Los Angeles.

The Rams have a negative-24 point differential, the worst mark of a team with more than one loss in the league. The only teams who have a worse mark in that category are a combined 6-27.

On the other hand, the Cardinals, who have a plus-24 point differential, have the most positive split of any team with a losing record. If you were to take an educated guess as to how each team's regression to the mean would look like, you'd assume that Arizona would trend up and Los Angeles would trend down over the course of the season.

Though the San Francisco 49ers won a 28-0 blowout against the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 1, they have been outscored by 57 points in the last four games, which they have all lost. Unless they have a drastic turnaround soon, their opportunity to get into the playoffs could be near impossible by the end of this month.