NFL Week 5 Picks: Game Props, Over/Under Lines and Odds Predictions

Week 5 of the NFL season is filled with questions. 

Are the Arizona Cardinals dead on arrival this season? How will the New England Patriots look with Tom Brady back to lead the offense?

Can the New Orleans Saints still give up touchdowns even on their bye week?

A lot is going on in a week when plenty of teams will look to break the tie of a 2-2 record and determine which way they're trending. 

Here's a look at the complete schedule along with the latest spreads and totals. After the schedule, we take a closer look at some of the more intriguing picks this week. 

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Arizona at San Francisco (TNF)	ARI -2.5	42.5	ARI 21-10
Washington at Baltimore	BAL -4	46	BAL 20-14
Tennessee at Miami	MIA -3.5	43.5	MIA 21-17
Houston at Minnesota	MIN -6	39.5	MIN 24-10
Chicago at Indianapolis	IND -4.5	47.5	IND 24-20
N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh	PIT -7	48.5	PIT 31-20
Philadelphia at Detroit	PHI -1	46	PHI 28-24
New England at Cleveland	NE -11	46.5	NE 28-21
Atlanta at Denver	DEN -6.5	47.5	DEN 31-21
San Diego at Oakland	OAK -3.5	50	OAK 34-31
Buffalo at L.A. Rams	LA -3	40	BUF 20-17
Cincinnati at Dallas	DAL -1.5	45.5	DAL 24-21
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay	GB -7	49	GB 31-23
Tampa Bay at Carolina (MNF)	N/A	N/A	CAR 27-20

Week 5 odds per Odds Shark. 

Picks of the Week

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over San Francisco 49ers

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Thursday night games have been formulaic over the last two weeks. The more talented team has won in decisive fashion, while the other team has barely mustered any offense. 

Week 5's Thursday night matchup between the Cardinals and 49ers should follow suit. 

Let's be clear: The Cardinals are off to a slow start. Not only are they 1-3, but quarterback Carson Palmer will likely not play as he is still in concussion protocol, per Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com.

Backup Drew Stanton threw two interceptions in relief of Palmer last week and isn't adept at throwing the ball downfield, according to Ed Werder of ESPN:

However, one has to keep in mind that the Niners will be starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. It isn't as though things are much better for them. 

This is likely headed toward a battle of defense and field position. That's a battle that the Cardinals can win even with Stanton at quarterback. The Cardinals still have one of the best running backs in the game in David Johnson and a defense that ranks sixth in yards allowed per play at 4.9. 

It won't be pretty. The Cardinals are going to have to go old school and grind one out, but that's a fine strategy for a Thursday night game with a shot at righting the ship. 

Cleveland Browns (+11) over New England Patriots

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This is a contrarian pick. 

In case you hadn't heard, Brady is back and ready to take out his frustrations with his suspension on the Cleveland Browns. Given the Browns' 0-4 record and the scenario of football's most accomplished quarterback rejoining his 3-1 team, it would be easy to take the 10 points and run here. 

Unfortunately for the Pats, Brady doesn't play linebacker, though. 

The truth is the Patriots offense has been, by and large, all right without Brady. The Bills shut out the Pats last week, but New England is ranked 13th in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA metric. 

Where the Patriots have surprisingly struggled in DVOA is on the defensive side of the football. They are ranked 26th defensively.

The Browns are by no means an offensive powerhouse, but some components of their offense are developing. 

For starters, Isaiah Crowell has been a revelation at running back. According to Pro Football Focus, he's been the most elusive back in football this season:

Then there's Terrelle Pryor. The former Ohio State quarterback has made the transition to receiver, and it's paying dividends. He posted five receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown while Washington cornerback Josh Norman shadowed him last week.

Adding some extra motivation to this game might be the fact that Pryor thought he would be a Patriot. 

"I really thought I was going to be a Patriot,'' he told Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com regarding a workout he had with the team in 2015. "I know Bill Belichick really liked me. I had a great workout for them and everything went really well. I really thought he was going to sign me.''

The Browns might not beat the Patriots straight up, but they have enough firepower on offense to keep this one close enough to cover the spread as a double-digit home dog. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over New York Jets

Joe Sargent/Getty Images

The Jets' season started with so much hope. 

With a talented defensive front, the addition of Matt Forte and Ryan Fitzpatrick coming back, it appeared the Jets had what it took to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East crown. 

The season has been an unmitigated disaster instead. 

That talented defense sits at 28th in DVOA rankings; however, the team's overall DVOA is dead last in the league. Fitzpatrick has thrown 10 interceptions to four touchdowns through four games, and Forte is averaging 3.6 yards per carry. 

The Jets are broken. 

In the video below, Bleacher Report analyst Chris Simms argues that the Jets' issues are schematic in nature, but those issues might not be a one-week fix:

Meanwhile, the Steelers couldn't be trending in a more positive direction. 

After Pittsburgh lost 34-3 to Philadelphia, Le'Veon Bell came back to remind everyone how terrifying this offense is with him carrying the ball. 

With Bell, the Steelers put up 43 points against the Kansas City Chiefs. The star running back had 178 total yards on 18 carries and five receptions. 

The Jets aren't even close to playing the same kind of defense that the Chiefs are. If Bell can come close to replicating his performance from last week, the Steelers should easily cover the spread against a team that is not in sync at all.