Week 4 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over/Under Score Predictions

Bettors might have stumbled a bit entering Week 4 of the NFL season.

Picking the Cincinnati Bengals over the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football was simple enough, the former taking care of business 22-7 to help nail down a predictable seven-point spread.

For those who thought the Bengals would post a blowout and get past the 44.5 over/under, though, the bankroll building didn't work out as intended.

Luckily for those bettors who hit on a slight hiccup, the rest of the Week 4 slate offers plenty of value to nail down. For those who didn't have any problems, well, keep the train moving down the tracks.

NFL Week 4 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Buffalo at New England	NE -4	43.5	BUF 21-20
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	DET -3	49.5	IND 23-20
Seattle at N.Y. Jets	SEA -3	40.5	NYJ 24-20
Detroit at Chicago	DET -3	46.5	DET 33-20
Carolina at Atlanta	CAR -3	46	CAR 28-24
Oakland at Baltimore	BAL -3.5	46.5	OAK 20-17
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -5	40.5	HOU 21-17
Cleveland at Washington	WAS -7.5	45.5	WAS 30-18
Denver at Tampa Bay	DEN -3.5	44.5	DEN 27-17
L.A. Rams at Arizona	ARI -8	43	ARI 23-14
New Orleans at San Diego	SD -4	52	SD 28-23
Dallas at San Francisco	DAL -3	44	DAL 20-14
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -5.5	47.5	PIT 27-20
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (MNF)	MIN -4.5	43.5	MIN 24-21

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

New Orleans at San Diego (-4)

Over/Under: 52

Here's a fun one to keep bettors entertained with what should be plenty of scoring. 

A cross-conference matchup between the New Orleans Saints and San Diego Chargers pits Drew Brees against Philip Rivers. The names around the quarterbacks might have changed over the years, but the efficiency of the offenses hasn't gone anywhere.

Brees and the Saints have already totaled more than 30 points in two games, though it is the defense unable to keep pace. New Orleans has lost all three games while allowing an average of 32.0 points and 448.3 yards per game, ranking the unit 31st in both categories.

While the Saints defense has been unable to reload well enough after injuries to stay competitive, the Chargers haven't had any such problem on offense. 

Well-publicized losses such as Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead haven't hurt the Chargers much. Tyrell Williams has stepped up at wideout with 11 catches for 201 yards and a score, and running back Melvin Gordon has looked great, scoring four times over three games.

Rivers hasn't been shy in gushing over the fact he finally has a competent running game again, as captured by Joel Erickson of the New Orleans Advocate:

"

We’re better overall in the run game, everybody involved, from the guys up front, from his reads and his tracks and just the way we’re operating And then for him personally, I see an increase in confidence, and he’s really made some very mature runs early on this year, the 3- or 4-yard runs that aren’t pretty, that nobody remembers.

"

San Diego has only lost both of its games by six or fewer points. At home facing a Saints team that has to travel, jumping out to a lead and sitting on it as Gordon abuses a terrible defense makes sense.

Such a strategy might ruin the over, but it's easy enough to see coming.

Prediction: Chargers 28-23

Buffalo at New England (-4)

Over/Under: 43.5

The AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots might be the most unpredictable of the week.

New England has had a question mark around the quarterback position all week, making line decisions rather difficult. Even though WEEI's Kirk Minihane reported Jimmy Garoppolo will start under center, the line doesn't get much easier.

In large part, thank the visitors. Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan and his staff put on an epic show against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 after losing two straight. The defense found a way to stuff the Cardinals, getting an eye-opening 33-18 win.

"I think the Arizona game really highlights how good they are, how tough it's going to be and how much work we have ahead of us," New England head coach Bill Belichick said, according to ESPN.com.

Indeed, Buffalo complicated things in a big way. New England has rolled to a 3-0 record without Tom Brady in large part thanks to running back LeGarrette Blount, who has 298 yards and four scores.

If Buffalo is to get over the hump against the Patriots and steal a win, now is the time. The Bills didn't lose to the Patriots by more than eight points over two games last season. With the Patriots missing Brady, look for Ryan to roll out another defensive masterpiece against a hobbled backup in a low-scoring affair hitting beneath the under.

Prediction: Bills 21-20

Detroit (-3) at Chicago

Over/Under: 45.5

This particular divisional matchup isn't so hard to figure out. 

The Detroit Lions have lost two games in a row, but it's nothing compared to what the Chicago Bears have done. Detroit, at least, looked competitive in a 16-15 loss to the Tennessee Titans and a 34-27 dismissal at the hands of NFC North foe and the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers.

Chicago has looked lost on the field, losing 23-14, 29-14 and 31-17 while suffering injury after injury. One glance at an injury report provided by Zach Zaidman of WSCR 670 should say it all:

If there is anything nice to say about the Bears, it is that the offense has looked somewhat competent under the direction of backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, who got tight end Zach Miller involved last week. The veteran wound up catching eight passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

It ends there, though. Detroit has upended Chicago in six consecutive games, and a seventh seems easy enough. Matthew Stafford has taken great care of the football, with 985 yards and seven touchdowns on a 67.5 completion percentage.

Stafford should have a major day against a defense that couldn't stop rookies such as Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott. Both the spread and over/under here are more funny than anything, which gives bettors an easy avenue to bankroll building. 

Prediction: Lions 33-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.