
NFL Week 4: Projecting Winners and Losers of Weekend's Biggest Matchups
Of all the NFL matchups we scrutinize and pick apart each week, one will almost always get more attention: the marquee wide receiver against the shutdown corner.
The sense of isolation on both sides creates the purest form of one-on-one sparring football has to offer. The receiver is alone on the outside, and he stares at the man assigned to keep the ball out of his grasp. That man stares back, knowing safety help isn't coming because it's more useful elsewhere. He can seal off this side of the field.
Then, in a few quick seconds, the duo displays every physical tool that makes NFL players astoundingly versatile athletes. There's a burst of speed off the line, quick footwork mirrored by the defender and an abrupt cut to change direction. Barring unusual circumstances, the ball either settles into two large hands, falls incomplete or tumbles to the turf after being swatted away.
It's hard not to fixate on the football ballet near the boundary each week. The matchups there pit speed against speed, and they ask wide receivers to shimmy away with precise routes while testing the quick-twitch anticipation of the cornerbacks.
Some of the best athleticism in football happens in the lonely matchups on the outside, and Week 4 of the 2016 season features a few dandies. Carolina Panthers wideout Kelvin Benjamin's battle against Atlanta Falcons corner Desmond Trufant is one of them, as is Pittsburgh Steelers star Antonio Brown's matchup with Marcus Peters, the Kansas City Chiefs' interception magnet.
Let's dive into those battles and more.
Jadeveon Clowney vs. Titans Tackles
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There's an emptiness in our football lives without Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt. According to Around the NFL, one of the best defenders of his era is gone for the rest of this season after being placed on injured reserve and undergoing surgery Thursday for a reaggravated back injury.
That's a long-term problem for both the Texans and anyone who enjoys watching a generational talent do his wrecking-ball act on a weekly basis (which is all of us). But in the short term, the Texans have a solution, and his name is Jadeveon Clowney.
The first overall pick in 2014 is finally healthy after being either on the sidelines or severely limited when he played during his first two seasons. Clowney gave us a little appetizer in 2015 before the main course that's likely to come in 2016 when he recorded 3.5 sacks over his final six games.
To begin his third season, the 6'5" and 270-pound athletic marvel has posted one sack while frequently being a backfield disruptor with seven pressures. He'll have to maintain the fierce status of the Texans defensive front while compensating for Watt's absence.
And Clowney's first assignment will be to create chaos Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and their two promising young offensive tackles.
The Titans have a solid foundation at those spots after selecting both Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin in the first round of the NFL draft in 2014 and 2016, respectively. The pair anchors an offensive line that's given up only six sacks through three games, which is a modest total considering Tennessee played the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders.
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota went down only once in Week 3 as Tennessee held Oakland Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack without a sack.
Individually, Lewan and Conklin haven't allowed a sack yet, even against the Vikings and their league-leading pass rush (15 sacks) in Week 1.
Prediction
Clowney is indeed a freak show athletically. But Lewan and Conklin should be able to hold steady. They will get help when needed from interior linemen who can now focus more on Clowney with Watt injured.
Joe Haden vs. DeSean Jackson
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Remember when Joe Haden was good? I mean really good, as in shutdown corner good. As in "don't ever throw in his direction" good.
Those glory days seem like a distant memory, but that's not the case at all. Haden was sidelined for all but five games in 2015 while recovering from a concussion and its scary aftereffects. But he recorded three-plus interceptions in each of the three previous season between 2012 and 2014. And in both 2013 and 2014, the 2010 first-round pick finished with 20 passes defensed.
So there's plenty of shutdown life left in the still-young 27-year-old, and he can be the only part of Cleveland's defense worth caring about if you're the opposition. It's troubling that Haden has given up two touchdowns already in 2016. But his two interceptions in Week 2 and his 73.5 passer rating allowed in coverage overshadow those missteps.
That's what Washington Redskins wide receiver DeSean Jackson will be up against Sunday, and right now, it seems like only a parachute can stop his speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash).
Jackson has always been a lid-popping deep threat when healthy. The health part has been a problem, and he came out of Washington's Week 3 win against the New York Giants briefly with an ankle injury that also limited him in practice this week, per the team's injury report.
But a slightly hobbled Jackson is still faster than most defenders who stand across from him and soon find themselves trailing as their assignment fades. Jackson is averaging 17 yards per reception this season, and he recorded 90-plus receiving yards in Weeks 1 and 3.
Prediction
Jackson roasted Giants cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in Week 3. It's difficult to see Haden faring much better, especially after he missed a game because of a groin issue.
Russell Wilson vs. Jets Pass-Rushers
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Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was going to suffer an injury eventually. Common sense told us that, along with the knowledge that bones and muscles don't take kindly to being battered by massive defenders. But it seems that when it rains in Seattle (which is practically every day), the clouds pour sprains and strains.
We're only about to hit the quarter pole of the 2016 season, and Wilson has already suffered a high-ankle sprain in his right leg along with a sprained MCL in his left knee. The MCL injury is more recent, and Seattle removed Wilson from a blowout win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 3 as a precaution.
Wilson has since been getting cozy with his live-in physical therapist and waking up for late-night treatments. Every report and word out of Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll's mouth indicates Wilson will start Sunday. But though he may be on the field physically, the past two weeks have shown that a gimpy version of the NFL's most dynamic mobile threat isn't Wilson at all.
He's a shell of himself, which is a concerning status against the New York Jets' menacing defensive line. It's a unit that sacked Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton seven times in Week 1.
Prediction
Jets defensive ends Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson have provided a consistent pocket-collapsing presence while combining for 21 pressures. Williams has especially surged in his second year with three sacks already.
If he's still limited while playing behind the weak Seahawks offensive line, Wilson doesn't have a chance.
LeGarrette Blount vs. Bills Front Seven
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LeGarrette Blount's running style is simple. You know the picture that shows how helmets used to be tested back in the day? He's the wall in that picture.
The New England Patriots running back lowers his head and his shoulders and then charges forward with a 250-pound tree-trunk-like body. Blount dares the defense to take that punishment and do it repeatedly. His ability to wear down opponents throughout the course of a game has led to two weeks with 100-plus rushing yards.
He's leads the league with 298 rushing yards overall and four touchdowns on the ground. His pounding has become the Patriots' offensive heartbeat, especially since the team may not even have its third quarterback against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Tom Brady is out one more game before his Deflategate suspension ends, and although Jimmy Garoppolo has been on the practice field this week, he still doesn't have full range of motion in his throwing shoulder, according to CSN New England's Michael Giardi.
The Patriots will probably attempt to remain undefeated by asking Jacoby Brissett to make some key throws but still mostly manage the game while handing off to Blount, assuming the third-string quarterback is good to go after the team listed him as questionable, per Pro Football Talk's Josh Alper. And it'll be up to the Bills defensive front to halt the Blount pain train.
The Bills haven't faced a runner with Blount's thickness yet. But although they've given up their share of rushing yardage (294 yards over three games), most of it has come through volume, not chunk gains. Buffalo has held opposing rushers to an average of just 3.4 yards per carry.
Prediction
We're still waiting on Blount's first game without a rushing touchdown, and the Bills have already allowed five rushing scores. They bent a bit without breaking against Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson and the Jets' Matt Forte, who needed 30 carries to get his 100 yards in New York's 37-31 victory.
But this week, the dam will break. The Bills have too many core defensive injuries to survive Blount's hammering.
Kelvin Benjamin vs. Desmond Trufant
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Everything that happened offensively for the Panthers in 2015 went down without wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who tore his ACL before the season began.
The Panthers finished tied for third in passing touchdowns without the first-round pick. Quarterback Cam Newton had three games with five passing TDs last season. He also averaged 7.75 yards per pass attempt.
So it didn't take much dot connecting to figure out what was likely to happen when Benjamin returned. A great passing offense would become even more dominant, right?
That still might be true, but the early returns are inconsistent. Newton's single-game passing totals have been as high as 353 yards (Week 2) and as low as 194 yards (Week 1). Benjamin has done his part with one exception, and that's the concern now.
After two games, Benjamin was riding high with his three touchdowns and 199 yards on 13 catches. He was the high-volume pass-snatcher and red-zone leaper the Panthers missed in 2015.
Then, in Week 3, he was shut out on his one target. Why? Because Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes was a suffocating shadow.
Now it's Desmond Trufant's turn to attempt the same blanking for the Falcons. Yes, the same Trufant who has given up only 122 yards in coverage over three games.
Prediction
Trufant excels because he's among a small group of cornerbacks who can match the physicality of a towering receiver. He has the tools to limit the 6'5" Benjamin.
Stopping Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is another matter altogether. A spectacular thrashing is coming there.
Stefon Diggs vs. Giants Cornerbacks
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Watching Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs is probably the most entertaining thing on your TV this fall.
As a route-runner, Diggs is reminiscent of an outfielder chasing laser-beam liners, and it doesn't look like he's running fast. Yet he gets where he needs to be, and the motion seems effortless.
His positional awareness and natural, smooth ability to weave his way through double moves is impressive at such a young age. Diggs is just 22 years old and in his second NFL season. And after three games, he's the fourth-best receiver with 325 yards through the air at an average of 16.3 per catch.
Diggs was quieter in Week 3 for the undefeated Vikings. But so was the entire passing offense, as quarterback Sam Bradford navigated heavy pressure from the Panthers while leaning on tight end Kyle Rudolph. Diggs still led all Vikings wide receivers with his 40 yards, and prior to that, he had recorded two straight 100-plus-yard games.
He's a fast-rising young star Minnesota will rely on even more with running back Adrian Peterson gone until at least late in the season. Diggs' next challenge will be taming two aggressive New York Giants corners Monday.
The Giants have a revamped defense, and one of those new pieces is cornerback Janoris Jenkins. He's always looking to jump routes and create turnovers. Jenkins is the cornerback version of that friend who arrives 20 minutes early to everything, and Diggs could get him to bite on those double moves with his precise route running.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a better matchup against Diggs from a skill perspective. However, he's been embarrassed often this season, which is concerning. He's given up a 109.4 passer rating in coverage, and Washington's DeSean Jackson burned him for a 44-yard touchdown reception in Week 3.
Rodgers-Cromartie is also dealing with a groin issue that could limit his effectiveness if he plays Monday night.
Prediction
The Giants pass rush might make life miserable and painful for Bradford. But if the Vikings hold that unit at least somewhat in check, then Diggs will soar.
Christine Michael vs. Jets Run Defense
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It's understandable to be wary of reading too much into a one-game outburst by Seahawks running back Christine Michael against the lowly 49ers in Week 3, when he exploded for 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries.
But when you take in the entirety of what Michael has done in 2016, including the preseason, any doubts should be quickly erased.
A running back many viewed as scrapheap material not long ago has suddenly had an awakening—or, rather, "The Awakening"—while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. That comes after a preseason primarily spent with the first-team offense in which Michael plowed ahead for an average of six yards per carry.
He's a classic power runner between the tackles, but in the open field, he can still create whiffs with ease. The 25-year-old is one of only five running backs with double-digit missed tackles created as rushers. He's showing the potential that made him a second-round pick in 2013, and he's doing it at a position where second chances for starting roles don't usually come in one's fourth NFL season.
Michael's most impressive trick yet will be keeping that going against the Jets on Sunday. Their swarming run defense is ranked third and has allowed only 3.3 yards per carry.
Prediction
Michael has been impressive, but it'll be hard for him to keep up his battering-ram ways against the Jets if they're able to stack the box and not worry much about Wilson with his limited mobility.
Antonio Brown vs. Marcus Peters
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Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters has intercepted 17.4 percent of the balls thrown his way so far in 2016.
That's a ridiculous percentage, and something resembling reality will kick in soon. Then again, the absurdity surrounding Peters' play doesn't go away when we take the long view.
He's played just 19 career regular-season games, and nine of them have ended with at least one interception. That includes three multiple-interception weeks.
I promise at some point I'll stop drooling over Peters in this space every week. Or will I? When he stops tallying two interceptions each Sunday—which the 23-year-old has done twice in 2016—then I'll stop too.
In Week 3, those picks came when Peters had to blanket Jets wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Injuries were hobbling both of them, but that shouldn't take away from Peters' brilliance, highlighted by a 48.9 passer rating in coverage.
He's not flawless, though. Quick cuts and speed can expose him, which happened when Peters gave up a 53-yard reception to the Texans' Will Fuller in Week 2. So will he be vulnerable Sunday against Steelers receiver Antonio Brown?
Prediction
Brown has already posted two 120-plus-yard games in 2016. In Week 7 against the Chiefs last season, he finished with six catches for 124 yards (20.7 yards per catch).
Brown still had the odd Week 2 blip this season against the Cincinnati Bengals when he looked somewhat human. But generally, it's hard to find a cornerback who can keep up with him, and that includes Peters.
Gary Barnidge vs. Redskins Linebackers and Safeties
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In 2015, Gary Barnidge was one of four tight ends in the league to reach 1,000-plus receiving yards.
He was the lone bright spot for the Browns during yet another season filled with crushing despair. The team added a few more names onto the famed and always-expanding jersey showing how many quarterbacks the franchise has used since drafting Tim Couch in 1999.
In 2016, the Browns and their fanbase were supposed to have more hope. Wide receiver Terrelle Pryor is stepping up to provide a bit of that, but Barnidge is still a critical component as the franchise fights for an ounce of respect.
He has a solid though less than spectacular 103 receiving yards after three games, and 66 of those yards came in Week 3. That fell in line with his per-game average of 65.2 yards in 2015, which established Barnidge as a consistent threat up the seam and in the red zone.
But it may be tough for one of the Browns' few imposing weapons to find space in Week 4.
That's because the Redskins have sealed off opposing tight ends effectively while allowing only 35.7 receiving yards per game to the position, according to Football Outsiders.
Prediction
In 2015, Barnidge showed he has the ability to be matchup-proof when he scored nine touchdowns. But with rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman still out and much of the coverage attention focused Barnidge's way, he likely won't make much of a dent against the Redskins.
Oh, and it also doesn't help that the Browns are down to third-string rookie QB Cody Kessler.
All advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.





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