Week 1 NFL Picks: Predictions, Odds and Over/Under Tips for Season Openers

For NFL bettors in Week 1, sometimes the simple spreads aren't enough.

Those in need of a more robust game of chance against the house in Las Vegas and simply more chances at coming out ahead can play the over/under odds. This can happen with some degree of success, too, with a basic analysis of matchups.

This week features plenty of both worlds, with some obvious defensive-minded affairs featuring low expected totals. More fun to most, though, is the high-scoring encounters where teams combine to blow past Las Vegas' suggestion.

There is a way for bettors to get ahead either way. Here is a look at the rest of the opening-week slate.

NFL Week 1 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Buffalo at Baltimore	BAL -3	44.5	BUF 20-17
Green Bay at Jacksonville	GB -6	48	GB 30-24
San Diego at Kansas City	KC -7	44.5	KC 33-20
Oakland at New Orleans	NO -1.5	51	NO 21-17
Chicago at Houston	HOU -6.5	44	HOU 30-17
Cleveland at Philadelphia	PHI -3.5	41	CLE 24-20
Minnesota at Tennessee	MIN -3	41	MIN 23-20
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	ATL -3	47.5	TB 24-23
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets	CIN -3	41.5	CIN 20-14
Miami at Seattle	SEA -10	44	SEA 20-7
N.Y. Giants at Dallas	NYG -1	46	NYG 24-20
Detroit at Indianapolis	IND -3	51	IND 28-24
New England at Arizona	ARI -6.5	47	ARI 27-17
Pittsburgh at Washington (MNF)	PIT -3	50	WAS 23-14
L.A. Rams at San Francisco (MNF)	LA -3	44	LA 17-13

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Odds

Green Bay (-6) at Jacksonville

This might wind up the easiest line of the week.

The Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars averaged in the neighborhood of 23 points per game last year and don't figure to have any problems doing so again this season. Add an escalation when the two sides encounter each other this week, and the over of 48 doesn't stand a chance.

Those Packers still have Aaron Rodgers under center and will have Jordy Nelson on the field this year, too. Nelson missed all of last year, though a quote grabbed by Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette makes it sound like the two won't have any problems:

Perhaps more interesting is the Jaguars, a team that got 35 touchdowns from quarterback Blake Bortles as he leaned on a strong trio of Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas, which combined for 29 scores.

With T.J. Yeldon in the backfield (740 yards and two scores last year) and wideout Marqise Lee still coming along, Bortles shouldn't have issues going for 40 or more scores this season, starting against the Packers.

It makes the over/under rather easy to predict, though the outright isn't much more difficult. Jacksonville has done an incredible job of rebuilding and sticking to the plan, but the young team isn't to the point of dismissing the Packers yet.

Prediction: Packers 30-24

Chicago at Houston (-6.5)

In past years, this probably looked like an iffy over/under of 44 between the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears. 

Thanks to some changes by the Texans, that's not the case anymore.

Houston went out and revamped quarterback and running back in the offseason. Brock Osweiler now starts under center after looking like the future for the Denver Broncos once Peyton Manning hung up the cleats. He doesn't have epic stats of note yet, but playing with a top-three wideout like DeAndre Hopkins will help.

As for the backfield, Houston swiped Lamar Miller from the Miami Dolphins. He rushed for 872 yards and eight scores last year but has received more than 200 carries in a season just once.

NFL reporter Rand Getlin put Miller's career into perspective so far:

Chicago has made strides to improving on defense, but it won't be enough. As for the offense, Jay Cutler still has Alshon Jeffery to lean on, but the unit hopes Jeremy Langford can properly replace Matt Forte. Also, Kevin White has a questionable tag, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.

This will go for the over, with the home team doing most of the heavy lifting. 

Prediction: Texans 30-17

Cincinnati (-3) at N.Y. Jets

How about a total prediction going in the other direction?

An encounter between the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets demands the under. The hosts, though featuring Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker at wideout, don't get a nod as an elite offense by any means—especially against the Cincinnati defense. 

Cincinnati might get such a nod in time if words by quarterback Andy Dalton come to fruition.

"I've got a lot of confidence in my ability, in what this offense can do and the guys around me," Dalton said, according to ESPN.com. "So there definitely is a carryover. I mean, it was the best season that I've had, so for me it's trying to improve on that."

Gary Landers/Associated Press

The Bengals don't figure to have a seamless transition. Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu left in free agency, meaning Dalton will have to break in two new starting wideouts. Tight end Tyler Eifert won't play due to an injury, leaving A.J. Green to fend for himself against Darrelle Revis.

That said, Cincinnati is still the more complete team and can ride a strong running game to victory here while the Jets hope the newly acquired Matt Forte can find some headway against an elite defense. Said defense will have Ryan Fitzpatrick under pressure all day as well, which is bad news for a guy who missed time this preseason due to a contractual dispute.

Look for a run-first encounter flanked by strong defenses to go for the under.

Prediction: Bengals 20-14

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of September 9. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.