NFL Week 1 Picks: Prop Bets, Vegas Lines, Over-Under Predictions and Advice

The wait has been long, but an intriguing Week 1 will finally kick off the NFL season in earnest on Thursday night. 

The action all begins with a Super Bowl rematch between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos. 

The matchup itself is a good microcosm for the season. Some of the names and faces in that matchup will be the same. We'll wonder whether Cam Newton will be able to handle the vaunted Panthers pass rush. But a new season brings new storylines as the Broncos will attempt to replace Peyton Manning on offense. 

Below is a look at the complete schedule along with the latest odds from Odds Shark for each matchup and prediction. 

Date	Away	Home	Point Spread	O/U	Prediction
9/8	Carolina Panthers	Denver Broncos	CAR -3	41.5	DEN/U
9/11	Minnesota Vikings	Tennessee Titans	MIN -2	41	TEN/O
9/11	San Diego Chargers	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -7	44.5	KC/U
9/11	Chicago Bears	Houston Texans	HOU -6.5	44	HOU/U
9/11	Oakland Raiders	New Orleans Saints	NO -1	51	OAK/U
9/11	Green Bay Packers	Jacksonville Jaguars	GB -6	48	GB/U
9/11	Cincinnati Bengals	New York Jets	CIN -3	41.5	CIN/U
9/11	Cleveland Browns	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -4	41	CLE/U
9/11	Buffalo Bills	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -3	44.5	BUF/O
9/11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -3	47.5	ATL/O
9/11	Miami Dolphins	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -10.5	44	SEA/U
9/11	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	EVEN	45.5	DAL/O
9/11	Detroit Lions	Indianapolis Colts	IND -4	51	IND/O
9/11	New England Patriots	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -6	47	ARI/O
9/12	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins	PIT -3	50	PIT/U
9/12	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	LA -3	44	LA/U

AFC Team	Win Total	NFC Team	Win Total
New England Patriots	10.5	Carolina Panthers	10.5
Pittsburght Steelers	10.5	Green Bay Packers	10.5
Denver Broncos	9.5	Seattle Seahawks	10.5
Indianapolis Colts	9.5	Arizona Cardinals	10
Kansas City Chiefs	9.5	Dallas Cowboys	9.5
Cincinnati Bengals	9.5	Minnesota Vikings	9.5
Houston Texans	8.5	New York Giants	8
Oakland Raiders	8.5	Atlanta Falcons	7.5
Baltimore Ravens	8	Chicago Bears	7.5
Buffalo Bills	8	Detroit Lions	7.5
New York Jets	8	Los Angeles Rams	7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.5	Washington Redskins	7.5
Miami Dolphins	7	New Orleans Saints	7
San Diego Chargers	7	Philadelphia Eagles	7
Tennessee Titans	5.5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7
Cleveland Browns	5	San Francisco 49ers	5.5

Win Totals via Odds Shark. 

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos

The 2015 season ended with the Denver Broncos riding a killer pass rush and just enough offense to capture the title in a 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers. 

Now both will start their new path to the title against one another. 

Despite their status as the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Denver Broncos will come into the game as three-point underdogs, according to Odds Shark. 

That's most likely due to the fact that the Broncos are now starting Trevor Siemian instead of Peyton Manning, while the Carolina Panthers are coming off a season in which they went 14-2. Even Von Miller—the Broncos' biggest difference-maker—talked about the Panthers picking up where they left off in the lead-in to this game, per the Carolina Panthers website:

"

In my opinion, I think we’re going to see the same championship type of team from the Carolina Panthers. They only lost two games last year and had plenty of opportunities to win the game last year. They just didn’t execute. I feel like this year they are going to be the exact same team with all the challenges that they have, they’re returning 18 starters. I feel like they’ll be able to execute more during this game.

"

To some extent, Miller is right. This game should be a lot closer than the 14-point game the Broncos saw in the Super Bowl. However, the play here should still be the Broncos. Brad Evans of Yahoo laid out some reasoning for why the Broncos offense shouldn't be discounted in the matchup:

The real reason to back the Broncos here is the fact that the same fundamental problem exists for the Panthers in this matchup: The Broncos defensive front is simply better than the Panthers offensive line. 

When that's the case, it's extremely hard to get an offense going. Even if it is an offense as explosive as the Panthers have been. The loss of Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan hurt, but not enough to slow this pass rush down. 

Expect the Broncos to win a game that's a bit sloppy and defense-oriented. 

Broncos 17, Panthers 14

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The big winner of the preseason was Dak Prescott. The rookie quarterback led the league in preseason quarterback rating with five touchdowns to zero interceptions in three games. 

Now with the injury to Tony Romo, he gets to prove he can do it in the regular season right away. 

Trusting a rookie quarterback to cover the spread can be unnerving, but the good news is that Prescott is in the perfect spot to do so. 

First, he'll be playing in an offense with proven weapons to throw to in Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Tony Romo has had a successful career with those two as his primary targets. He'll also be playing behind the best offensive line in the NFL and a running game that is now led by Ezekiel Elliott. 

In addition to a great supporting cast, the defense he's facing has a lot to fix before being considered good. The Giants were 30th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. 

New York has taken a few steps to fix that. The additions of Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison as free agents should help things, but it isn't a cure-all. 

Prescott just has to take care of the football and make a few big throws here and there to get the ball to Bryant and Witten to keep the Giants honest and the safeties out of the box. If he can simply do that, the Cowboys should start off the season in the win column despite being Romo-free. 

Cowboys 28, Giants 21

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

While the kickoff game features a Super Bowl rematch, the Sunday night slate ends with a game that might just wind up being the 2017 Super Bowl matchup. 

The teams that win at the highest level in the NFL are the ones that can win in multiple ways. Both the Cardinals and the Patriots are the embodiment of that idea.

Arizona finished last season ranked third overall in DVOA while the Patriots finished sixth. What's scary is the Cardinals lost almost no production in the offseason and addressed the only mediocre aspect of their defense by adding Chandler Jones to a pass rush that had only 36 sacks last season. 

The only thing holding this matchup back from being a great one is the absence of Tom Brady. The Patriots quarterback will be serving the beginning of his four-game suspension. 

However, that's not a reason to count out the Patriots from competing in this game. In the video below, Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report explains why he thinks New England will actually go 4-0 without Brady:

The argument makes sense. The Patriots have won sans Brady before. It was eight years ago, but head coach Bill Belichick once found a way to go 11-5 with Matt Cassel starting 15 games. He would go on to only pass for 3,000 yards one more time in his career. 

In the long run, the Patriots will be just fine without Brady to start the season. A 3-1 start is likely with the next three games coming at home before Brady throws for somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 yards against the Cleveland Browns in his season debut. 

The Cardinals, however, are a different beast. Their offense is one of the most dynamic in the league with David Johnson in the backfield, and the defense should be even better this season. 

Cardinals 31, Patriots 24