Fantasy Football Week 16: Saturday Morning Gameday Preview
I've got to be honest with you, it feels really darn strange writing a fantasy football article previewing 12 games for a Saturday. Really. Darn. Strange.
What makes writing these previews bittersweet is, well, I'm not in the championship of my own league, so what kind of advice should me, this schmuck, be giving you? After all, you're in the championship of your league, and I'm not!
Read the article. Play the players I tell you to play and win. Or lose. Whatever happens, happens. If your championship is in Week 17, you're a sick individual. Who would do something like that?
Since this will be my last piece before Christmas Day, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone!
Fantasy Football Week 16: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
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Game Preview
Seeking their 10th win, the Miami Dolphins will be on the road with their second-string quarterback, Matt Moore, against a Buffalo Bills team that will definitely be without their head coach in about a week and perhaps without their incumbent starting quarterback in 2017. Not awkward at all, right?
According to OddsShark, the Bills are favored in this game by 4.5 points. After his Week 15 performance, there could be a new Matty Ice in town.
Look for Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi to rebound here.
Miami wins their 10th.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Bills 17.
Injury Updates
Dolphins
None.
Bills
Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is questionable due to his ailing foot, and tight end Charles Clay is questionable with a knee injury.
Fantasy Fixtures
Dolphins
Although he saw just four targets in Week 15, wide receiver Jarvis Landry will be quarterback Matt Moore's No. 1 option and will go up against Bills cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman. Landry will definitely see more targets in Week 16—the Dolphins are unlikely to destroy the Bills like they did the New York Jets.
The Bills rank 31st in DVOA against the run. You know what that means? A Jay Ajayi rebound. He's been under three yards per carry the last two games, but the Bills give up nearly 125 rushing yards per game. Start him.
Bills
Running back LeSean McCoy—he is a total stud and matchup proof.
Sleepers and Streamers
Dolphins
This is totally matchup-based: wide receiver DeVante Parker.
In Week 16, Parker will go toe-to-toe with Bills cornerback Ronald Darby, who ranks 78th in coverage this season, according to Pro Football Focus. While Moore only targeted him three times in Week 15, he could be in for a big play.
Bills
Sticking with matchups here, wide receiver Robert Woods should see plenty of Bobby McCain, who ranks 83rd in coverage, out of the slot, according to PFF. Of course, the other factor here are fellow wide receiver Sammy Watkins' health and if his foot injury limits him at all.
Fantasy Football Week 16: New York Jets at New England Patriots
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Game Preview
This is going to be a demolition of the New York Jets by the New England Patriots.
Traveling to Foxborough is tough enough, but couple that with the fact that you're the New York Jets? You're toast.
A 17-point underdog? Man, no respect from Vegas at all.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Jets 13.
Injury Updates
Jets
Running back Matt Forte is doubtful with knee and shoulder injuries.
Wide receiver Brandon Marshall is questionable with shoulder and back injuries.
Patriots
The Patriots will be without wide receiver Danny Amendola again in Week 16. He has an ankle injury.
Fantasy Fixtures
Jets
If Forte is indeed ruled out, running back Bilal Powell is a must play. Over the last two weeks, Powell is the RB2 in PPR leagues, trailing only Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell. The Jets are massive underdogs, and the weather is going to be less than ideal. Play him.
Patriots
Quarterback Tom Brady, because, well, it's Brady.
Wide receiver Julian Edelman will go up against Jets cornerback Juston Burris out of the slot. Who is Burris, you might ask? My point exactly.
Lastly, running back LeGarrette Blount. The Patriots are huge favorites in this one, meaning the Patriots should run the ball a ton. Blount could have three more touchdowns this week.
Sleepers and Streamers
Jets
Wide receiver Robby Anderson has been a top target for Jets quarterback Bryce Petty, and he's averaging just over nine targets per game the last three games. Considering the spread, the Jets should need to throw a fair amount.
Patriots
I can't believe I'm saying this, but if he plays, this is perhaps the only week in which wide receiver Michael Floyd will do anything on limited snaps. He's a super deep sleeper option, so don't go crazy.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
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Game Preview
How long will it be before the Jacksonville Jaguars finally catch on that quarterback Blake Bortles is nothing more than a career backup?
Until then, they'll continue to lose.
This is great news for the Tennessee Titans who need to keep winning if they want to make the playoffs.
A playoff berth for these Titans so soon into quarterback Marcus Mariota's career would be a huge accomplishment.
Well, one win down, one to go, Tennessee.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 13.
Injury Updates
Titans
None.
Jaguars
Wide receiver Allen Hurns is out once again with a hamstring injury. He could likely head to injured reserve.
Running back Denard Robinson is out with an ankle injury.
Tight end Neal Sterling is out with a concussion.
Fantasy Fixtures
Titans
He's been on a cold streak lately, but Mariota should bounce back against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that he threw 270 yards and two touchdowns against back in Week 8.
Although the Jaguars rank 12th in DVOA against the run, I'm never sitting running back DeMarco Murray.
Looking at the pass-catching options, wide receiver Rishard Matthews will go up against Jaguars rookie cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who ranks 59th in coverage among all cornerbacks, according to PFF. Matthews also has two 100-plus yard games over the past four weeks. Look for Matthews to put up WR2 numbers this week.
Jaguars
You need to start a Jaguars wide receiver this week. No, it's not Allen Robinson, but rather Marqise Lee. After going catchless on three targets and returning a 100-yard kick in Week 15, Lee will go up against Titans cornerback Valentino Blake, who is far from intimidating. He should see numerous targets this week—he's the only trustworthy Jaguars offensive player.
Sleepers and Streamers
Titans
The Jaguars rank 24th in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers, so Kendall Wright isn't a horrible option. It's tough to get excited about any Titans pass-catcher not named Matthews or tight end Delanie Walker, but if you need a last-minute spot start, Wright is an alright option.
Jaguars
None, to be honest. But if I had to choose one, I'd go with tight end Ben Koyack, because he's the only healthy tight end. He'll likely do nothing, but hey, I tried to find one reasonable option.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
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Game Preview
The Green Bay Packers will look to continue to run the table in hopes of capturing a playoff spot when the team hosts the failing Minnesota Vikings in Week 16.
It seemed like just a few 10 weeks ago that the Vikings were undefeated. Wait a minute, that's exactly when it was.
Since then, the Vikings and quarterback Sam Bradford are like the patients in Life Alert commercials—fallen and can't get up.
At home, the Packers are a near touchdown favorite at 6.5 points.
Gimme the Pack.
Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 14.
Injury Updates
Vikings
Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is questionable with a hip injury, and running back Adrian Peterson has been ruled out with groin and knee injuries.
Packers
Running back James Starks is out with a concussion, and wide receiver Randall Cobb is questionable with an ankle injury.
Fantasy Fixtures
Vikings
The only player I'm touching on the Vikings is Diggs if he suits up. He's a target monster and the Vikings should be trailing for most of the game.
Packers
Looking at the Packers, there are three fixtures: quarterback Aaron Rodgers, wide receiver Jordy Nelson and running back Ty Montgomery.
Rodgers is on a complete tear lately, throwing 10 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last six games. He has a tough matchup against a stout Vikings defense, but this is also the same defense that gave up over 30 points in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts.
Wide receiver Jordy Nelson is a player you're simply not going to sit in the championship, and running back Ty Montgomery just gets a plethora of touches between running the ball and catching the ball. Again, the matchup is tough, but both of these players are involved enough to warrant starting.
Sleepers and Streamers
Vikings
I don't feel great about any player outside of Diggs, but fellow wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson will draw a matchup with Packers cornerback Damarious Randall, who ranks 118th in coverage among all cornerbacks, per PFF. There are only 121 cornerbacks that qualify. So yeah, that's pretty horrible.
Packers
Coming off an 85-yard game, tight end Jared Cook will go up against a Vikings team that ranks 24th in DVOA against tight ends. If the Viking have one defensive deficiency, it's against tight ends. Earlier this year, Cook posted four catches for 31 yards against the Vikings. Don't expect an explosion of production, but top-15, maybe even top-12 tight end numbers are possible.
Fantasy Football Week 16: San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
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Game Preview
The quest for 0-16 continues for the Cleveland Browns, but they are just a four-point underdog in Week 16, hosting the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers have been brutalized by injuries this season, but they're still a good team, despite what their record will tell you.
0-15 incoming, Cleveland.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Browns 17.
Injury Updates
Chargers
Melvin Gordon will miss his second game in a row due to a hip injury.
Browns
None.
Fantasy Fixtures
Chargers
The two must-starts for the Chargers are quarterback Philip Rivers and his No. 1 option Tyrell Williams.
It's the Browns. Must I explain? They are horrible in literally every defensive category.
Browns
None. No thanks.
Sleepers and Streamers
Chargers
I'll just make this easy and say every remaining skill position player. With Gordon out, fellow running backs Ronnie Hillman and Kenneth Farrow will get a crack at this terrible Browns defense, but it's not totally clear who the lead back will be once the game is over. It will likely start out with Farrow, though, despite Hillman being more efficient in Week 15.
Both tight ends—Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry—have great shots to score. They are both playing almost even snaps lately. It's just a matter of picking the right one.
Browns
The Chargers rank 21st in DVOA against No. 2 receivers, and Corey Coleman's speed has to allow for a potential touchdown. Another matchup play.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
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Game Preview
According to FiveThirtyEight, there's a 72 percent chance the Washington Redskins make the playoffs if they win their next two games (independent of other game outcomes). A loss at the Chicago Bears would not only be embarrassing, but it would reduce their chances to less than one percent that they make the playoffs.
The Bears are playing for nothing here, and in their heart of hearts, prefer to lose—a higher draft pick!
Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins and company will take care of business as three-point road favorites—even without tight end Jordan Reed should he sit.
Prediction: Redskins 27, Bears 20.
Injury Updates
Redskins
Tight end Jordan Reed is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Bears
None.
Fantasy Fixtures
Redskins
Wide receiver DeSean Jackson has a fantastic matchup in Week 16, going up against Bears cornerback Tracy Porter. Jackson should find his way to the end zone this week.
The Bears rank 27th in DVOA against the run, and the Redskins have a capable back in Rob Kelley. He isn't the flashiest guy, but he gets the job done. Expect a touchdown in his third straight game.
Bears
It's tough to go against wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, even in a matchup against the Redskins top corner Josh Norman.
Running back Jordan Howard is a must-start every week, so no need to prove a point on that one.
Even with Jeffery back in the mix, it's not going to be easy to bench fellow wide receiver Cam Meredith. He's been tearing it up this season and also gets a date with Redskins cornerback Bashaud Breeland, who ranks 93rd in coverage among cornerbacks, according to PFF.
Sleepers and Streamers
Redskins
If Reed sits out with his shoulder injury, backup tight end Vernon Davis will take over as the starter. By virtue of playing time, it's hard to ignore Davis.
Bears
If you're backed up against a wall, or have been streaming quarterbacks all season, look towards Matt Barkley. It may not be pretty while it's happening, but Barkley puts up solid fantasy numbers, throwing six touchdowns over his four starts and also throwing for 300-plus yards in two of them.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
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Game Preview
With a win this week, the Atlanta Falcons will wrap up a playoff berth.
As of right now, the Carolina Panthers are still mathematically alive for the playoff hunt but would need a ton of stuff to happen in order to secure a spot.
Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones will return this week for the first time in two games. I don't know about you, but I'm old enough to remember the time he went for 300 yards against these same Panthers earlier this year.
The Falcons are three-point road favorites.
Get ready, here comes the postseason, Atlanta.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 21.
Injury Updates
Falcons
Tight end Austin Hooper is out with a knee injury.
Panthers
None.
Fantasy Fixtures
Falcons
The big three: quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Devonta Freeman. Because, they're pretty good and all. Do you need further proof beyond that? Nope.
Panthers
This is fairly bold considering his numbers in their last matchup, but quarterback Cam Newton should be started. I know, I know—165 yards and one touchdown in their first matchup is far from good, but this time, at home and coming off a 300-yard game, Newton should outperform his last outing.
Considering my praise of Newton, it's only right to look towards one of his most trusted options—tight end Greg Olsen. He's been dealing with an elbow injury but will suit up in this one. Olsen caught Newton's only touchdown in their last matchup with the Falcons, and there's no reason he can't score again here. He hasn't been scoring much lately (it's been six games), but that will change this week. Book it.
Coming off what is by far his best game of the season, running back Jonathan Stewart has a great matchup with the Falcons, who rank 28th in DVOA against the run and 27th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. I'm expecting RB2 numbers this week.
Sleepers and Streamers
Falcons
Mohamed Sanu has a stellar matchup against Panthers cornerback Leonard Johnson. Again, who is this guy? Sanu should take care of him.
Panthers
Deep-play Ted Ginn is all I got here. Going up against a beatable secondary, a big play could very well happen, but that's what you're banking on—a big play.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
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Game Preview
Both teams in this one are playing for something.
For the visiting Indianapolis Colts, they're playing for their playoff lives, by way of winning the AFC South. According to FiveThirtyEight, they have just a three percent chance. If they can upset the Oakland Raiders, that chance skyrockets to 10 percent (independent of other game outcomes). "So you're saying there's a chance?" Yup.
For the Raiders, they need to keep winning in hopes the New England Patriots trip up so they can steal the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Minus all that narrative, the Raiders will take care of business at home here. They're 3.5-point home favorites.
Prediction: Raiders 28, Colts 24.
Injury Updates
None for either team.
Fantasy Fixtures
Colts
It's almost impossible to ignore quarterback Andrew Luck in this spot. He's the QB4 in fantasy also. You're not sitting him.
Slot cornerback play for the Raiders has been terrible all season. Who plays out of the slot for the Colts? Mr. T.Y. Hilton. Go eat, my man.
Raiders
Looking at the home teams' quarterback, Derek Carr should be played, too. Sure, that injured finger is a bit of a concern, but the Colts defense is a laughing stock, ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run.
29th in DVOA against the run is a perfect segway to our next fixture: running back Latavius Murray. For me, Murray is a bit like meeting your daughter's new boyfriend: Skeptical at first, but eventually he grows on you. That's Murray for me. I've been totally skeptical of him in the past, but the man continues to produce week after week. He also has a sweet matchup, so that helps.
Colts cornerback Vontae Davis has not been his usual, shutdown self this season, ranking 113th in coverage among all cornerbacks, per PFF. Dial up Amari Cooper.
Sleepers and Streamers
Colts
It won't be flashy, but I don't hate running back Frank Gore here. He's coming off a 26 carry game, so the workhorse in him is still there, and he's been catching some passes—four in Week 15.
Raiders
Major reach here, but tight end Clive Walford is a bottom-of-the-barrel option if you're an owner of Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed or Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
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Game Preview
Could the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally make the playoffs for the first time since 2007? It looks like they have a pretty good shot. However, it starts with beating the Saints on the road—a tall order.
The Buccaneers are coming off a collapse against the Dallas Cowboys in a game in which they could have very well won.
The Saints at home are tough to pick against, though.
Sorry, Bucs fans. Saints play spoiler here despite being a 3.5-point home dog.
Prediction: Saints 24, Bucs 23.
Injury Updates
None for either team.
Fantasy Fixtures
Buccaneers
Let's get one out of the way quickly: wide receiver Mike Evans.
Next (and simply because you wouldn't sit him), tight end Cameron Brate. He is a bona fide top-six tight end in PPR league this season. That trend will continue.
Saints
Quarterback Drew Brees at home (with a few exceptions)—take it to the bank.
While the Bucs are a top-seven unit against the pass in DVOA, they're a bottom-nine unit against the run—yup, Mark Ingram is the play. Sure, fellow running back Tim Hightower being around is far from ideal, and sure, his 14 rushing yards against them two weeks ago provides no evidence of a fixture-type game, but Ingram should see upwards of 20 touches in this one.
I'm not sitting rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas. Even if he doesn't score, the catches in PPR leagues will more than make up for it.
Sleepers and Streamers
Buccaneers
After Evans and Brate, the third man up is wide receiver Russell Shepard, who will go primarily up against B.W. Webb. He is PFF's 84th-ranked cornerback in terms of coverage.
Saints
Running back Tim Hightower, I guess. He just won't go the hell away.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
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Game Preview
2016 has gone nothing like I expected it to for the Arizona Cardinals. Without running back David Johnson, they'd be even more terrible than they already are. Too bad he won't win MVP.
At this point, the Seahawks are simply playing to secure a first-round bye.
Going up against the Cardinals led by "Mr. Turnover" Carson Palmer himself, the 7.5-point home favorites will pull this one off.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17.
Injury Updates
Cardinals
Wide receiver John Brown is questionable will an illness.
Seahawks
None.
Fantasy Fixtures
Cardinals
The two amigos: wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and Johnson. If you were to sit either of them in the fantasy football championship, you're just not a smart individual. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's the Seahawks. My response? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's Fitz and DJohn, fools.
Seahawks
With Cardinals defensive back Tyrann Mathieu sent to injured reserve, who's going to play the slot against wide receiver Doug Baldwin? This is a fantastic spot for him.
Sleepers and Streamers
Cardinals
Please don't make me pick—it'll be ugly.
Seahawks
I'm a fan of any wide receiver that goes up against Marcus Cooper. It worked in my favor when the Cardinals played the Miami Dolphins, and I'll go back to it here—wide receiver Jermaine Kearse.
Fantasy Football Week 16: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
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Game Preview
Does any human being actually care about this game outside of fantasy football?
Here's a preview for you: They both absolutely, 100 percent stink.
Prediction: Rams 16, 49ers 12—seems fitting.
Injury Updates
The only injury here is to me for having to analyze this game.
But no, seriously, 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith was sent to injured reserve due to a concussion.
Fantasy Fixtures
49ers
Running back Carlos Hyde. Sure. Why not? He's all the 49ers have left at this point.
Rams
Going up against the 49ers, running back Todd Gurley has to have a good game, right? They seem to allow a 100-yard rusher every game.
Sleepers and Streamers
49ers
None. It's total garbage after Hyde.
Rams
None once again. If you're looking at either of these teams for sleeper options in the championship game, you must be in a league by yourself, because there is no way you've beaten enough teams to make it to the championship, or you're in a 74-man league.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
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Game Preview
I can't wait to finally watch the Houston Texans—they were unwatchable with Brock Osweiler in at quarterback.
On Sunday Night Football, the Tom Savage-led Texans will host the Cincinnati Bengals who, while missing tight end Tyler Eifert, will welcome back wide receiver A.J. Green.
The Texans are a small home favorite at minus-one, but I think the Bengals take this one narrowly.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Texans 21.
Injury Updates
Bengals
Tight end Tyler Eifert will miss Week 16 due to a back injury and running back Jeremy Hill, despite being listed as questionable with a knee injury, is expect to suit up.
Texans
After not practicing at all this week, running back Lamar Miller is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
Fantasy Fixtures
Bengals
With Eifert out, this just heightens the appeal of wide receiver A.J. Green in his return.
Texans
With "quarterback" Brock Osweiler out of the picture, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a new man. A new man that catches pass for yardage. With Tom Savage playing most of the game in Week 15, Hopkins had his most receiving yardage in a single game since Week 2. Start him.
Sleepers and Streamers
Bengals
If Hill were to actually sit instead of playing, backup running back Rex Burkhead would see all the work.
Texans
No sleepers here, but tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz could serve as an average fill-in at tight end if you're dealing with injuries at the position this week—the Bengals ranks 22nd in DVOA against tight ends.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, ESPN.com, Pro-Football-Reference and Football Outsiders. Injury report news courtesy of the respective team's site. Betting odds courtesy of OddsShark. All injury updates courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
Follow me on Twitter @RichardJanvrin.
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