Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 17 Futures Report
In my last article of the fantasy football season, I wanted to look back on the NFL rookies who made an impact of some kind in 2016 and those who could have more value in 2017.
Throughout the season, I highlighted rookies and second-year players who took a significant step forward and weren’t obvious stars coming into the season, like Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. Obviously, Gurley’s season didn’t work out so well, but Elliott was a superstar in fantasy and reality.
As we come to a close on this season, you should be looking ahead to 2017, especially if you’re in keeper or dynasty leagues. The majority of rookies discussed will be no-brainer picks to keep on your dynasty roster if you’re able to keep at least 10 players. Keeper decisions might be a little more difficult depending on how many players can be carried over to next year’s roster.
This is meant to be a review of the 2016 season and the potential direction the rookie class could be heading in for 2017. Of course, you’ll have to factor in the offseason moves like coaching changes, free-agent signings and draft picks. Situations can be more important than talent in some cases, just ask Dak Prescott and Gurley. A lot will change between now and the start of the 2017 season.
Quarterbacks
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Dak Prescott, DAL
Prescott was the surprise player of the 2016 season and will head into the playoffs as the starting quarterback of the top seed in the NFC. Barring a total meltdown or injury in the postseason, Prescott will be the unquestioned starter for the Dallas Cowboys in 2017, which means they’ll have to facilitate Tony Romo’s exit via release or trade.
Heading into the final week of this season, Prescott accounted for 29 touchdowns (23 passing/six rushing) and just eight turnovers (four interceptions/four lost fumbles). Considering Prescott averaged just 28 passes per game and hit 275 yards just five times, protecting the football is one of his primary tasks in the run-first Cowboys offense.
While he’ll need to continue his development, you couldn’t ask for a better situation for a young quarterback to be in with an outstanding offensive line and great running back to carry the offense. In his current role, Prescott isn’t an obvious, every-week fantasy starter for 2017, but he’ll have value as a top backup.
Paxton Lynch, DEN
Lynch got a fair chance to winning the starting job in training camp but ended up losing out to Trevor Siemian. However, the Denver Broncos felt comfortable enough with Lynch as a backup to cut veteran Mark Sanchez. Unfortunately, Lynch looked nowhere near ready to take over the starting role from Siemian in his three appearances.
While Siemian remains under contract through 2019, Lynch’s competition for 2017 could come from more of a proven veteran if the team decides they need an immediate upgrade at the position.
Jared Goff, LA
Goff’s NFL debut didn’t happen until Week 11 despite mostly awful play at the quarterback position for the Los Angeles Rams. Unfortunately, Goff hasn’t provided any upgrade and hasn’t been put in much of a position to succeed. In six games, he has just five touchdowns to seven interceptions and has been sacked 19 times.
Luckily, the Rams should get plenty of interest in their head-coaching search with the young combination of Goff and Todd Gurley in their backfield. The next head coach needs to get this offense on the right track and that starts with Goff.
Carson Wentz, PHI
When training camp began, Wentz was clearly the third-stringer for the Philadelphia Eagles behind Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel. By Week 1, he was the starter when the Eagles traded Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings and felt Wentz was ready to start immediately instead of going with the veteran in Daniel. After the first three weeks, the Eagles looked very smart, as they sat at 3-0 heading into the bye.
The hot start became a distant memory when Philadelphia lost nine of their next 12 games, and Wentz’s struggles were on display. He wasn’t helped by the lack of talent in his receiving corps and an offensive line that took a big hit when right tackle Lane Johnson was suspended for 10 games. That doesn’t absolve Wentz from his struggles with accuracy and decision-making, but those are correctable and expected issues from a rookie.
From a physical standpoint, Wentz still looks much better than Goff and might be in a better situation to succeed, especially if the Eagles add some help in the receiving corps, as expected. For fantasy, Wentz still has the most long-term value and upside of the 2016 rookie quarterbacks.
Running Backs
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AFC East
None of note.
AFC West
Devontae Booker, DEN
Booker opened the season as a backup to C.J. Anderson but ended up taking over the starting job when Anderson was lost to a torn meniscus in Week 7.
Booker averaged 4.8 yards per carry in a backup/sharing role with Anderson. In eight games since then, Booker averaged 2.9 yards per carry. While known for his pass-catching skills coming out of Utah, Booker has just three games with at least three receptions. He also lost three fumbles, which was a problem in college, too.
Anderson should be back on top of the depth chart in 2017, which might be best for Booker at this point in his career, since it was clear he wasn’t ready for a starting role as a rookie.
DeAndre Washington, OAK
Washington’s name was thrown around as a sleeper in August, as it looked like he’d get some immediate chances in the same backfield that featured the plodding Latavius Murray. While that did happen, he had just two games with double-digit carries in the first 11 weeks before a pair of healthy scratches.
Since then, Washington’s been active in the last three games and had 12 carries for 99 yards and two scores in Week 16, much to the chagrin of Murray owners. With Jalen Richard and Jamize Olawale also in the mix, it’s hard to get too excited about Washington’s fantasy value.
AFC North
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Dixon’s rookie season began on the sidelines thanks to a sprained MCL he suffered in the preseason. He didn’t make his NFL debut until Week 5 and had just six carries in his first three games. Because Terrance West never had a big dip in his play, Dixon didn’t have a chance to truly break out as a rookie. He had double-digit carries in just three games and never rushed for more than 57 yards in any game.
West played at least 40 percent of the snaps in nine games, while Dixon hit that number just twice. West’s play combined with Dixon’s injury limited any chance of the rookie making a major fantasy impact, although that should change in 2017. West isn’t a lock to return as a restricted free agent, so Dixon’s role has a good chance of increasing in his second season.
AFC South
Derrick Henry, TEN
A strong performance in the preseason boosted Henry’s fantasy value, but it didn’t carry over into the regular season. While Henry played well, the Tennessee Titans had no reason to cut into DeMarco Murray’s role, so Henry hasn’t been much more than a handcuff for most of the year.
Both Murray and Henry average 4.5 yards per carry heading into the final week of the season, but Murray has 282 carries to Henry’s 95. Henry’s fantasy value will be capped by Murray’s presence, although it could jump to the RB1 level if Murray ever goes down for an extended period.
NFC East
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
This is the first time I’ve written about Elliott in this article all season. We all knew he landed in the perfect situation and would succeed at a high level. Obviously, he did just that to confirm one of the easiest calls in the history of fantasy football.
With 1631 rushing yards, Elliott should have no problem holding off the closest contenders (Le’Veon Bell has 1268 yards) for the rushing title, even if he doesn’t play or his limited in the season finale. 322 carries as a rookie is a slight concern heading into 2017, but with that offensive line, Elliott should be a monster once again in a run-happy offense.
Paul Perkins, NYG
The New York Giants came into 2017 with Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen on top of the running back depth chart, but Perkins should be there when the 2017 season starts, barring a major offseason addition. While he had just one game with double-digit carries in the first 12 weeks, he’s hit that mark in each of his last three games, and his rushing yardage increased each time. Hopefully, the Giants realize what they have in Perkins and let him loose next season.
Wendell Smallwood, PHI
Smallwood had trouble carving out a consistent role in the Philadelphia Eagles backfield, as he battled for playing time with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. He had just three games with double-digit carries and neither came in the two games Mathews missed due to injury.
Smallwood sprained his MCL in Week 14 and was placed on the injured reserve. He finished the season with 77 carries for 312 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and one touchdown, in addition to six receptions for 55 yards on 13 targets. If the Eagles backfield remains this crowded, it could be tough to Smallwood to be a reliable fantasy contributor.
Rob Kelley, WAS
Kelley went undrafted but made some noise in the preseason as a potential name to watch in the Washington Redskins backfield behind Matt Jones and Chris Thompson. He had just 17 carries for 103 yards in the first seven weeks as a backup. When Jones couldn’t play in Week 8 because of a knee injury, Kelley took over and never looked back. Even though Jones has been healthy for a while, he hasn’t been active since Week 7.
Even though Kelley has just one 100-yard game, he’s been a more reliable runner than Jones. Kelley looked like he might be the RB1 category after taking over for Jones, but he’s settled into more of a decent RB2 with a small role in the passing game (12 receptions). Kelley’s been solid but far from spectacular. If the Redskins want to upgrade, Kelley is replaceable, especially since they aren’t paying him much.
NFC West
Alex Collins, SEA
Collins was buried on the depth chart most of the season, but his role became much more important in Week 15. When Thomas Rawls had to leave with a shoulder injury, Collins stepped in to rush for 28 yards on seven carries in addition to four receptions for 19 yards. If Rawls is back in Week 16, Collins will be his backup, which could remain his role into the postseason if C.J. Prosise can’t come back from his shoulder injury.
C.J. Prosise, SEA
Prosise didn’t make much of an impact with Thomas Rawls sidelined from Weeks 3-9, but in Week 10, which was Rawls’ last game on the sidelines, Prosise made his presence felt. He carried 17 times for 66 yards and caught all seven of his targets for 87 yards. With Rawls due back in Week 11, the Seattle Seahawks felt confident enough to cut Christine Michael, their leading rusher at the time.
Prosise looked primed for a big role, but the very next week he went down against the Philadelphia Eagles with a fractured scapula and hasn’t played since. Prosise still hasn’t landed on the injured reserve, so there’s a chance he could return at some point in the playoffs. Even if he doesn’t, Prosise showed enough as a rookie to be in the mix for the starting job next year.
NFC North
Jordan Howard, CHI
While I refused to buy into any hype about Jeremy Langford, I didn’t expect a true lead back and fantasy superstar to emerge for the Chicago Bears, so Howard was a wonderful surprise. He’ll finish 2016 as a legit RB1 and a player the Bears can build around as they head into what should be a transitional offseason.
Even though Howard didn’t take on a big role until the fourth game, he still had six games of at least 100 rushing yards and 10 games of at least 99 total yards. The Bears could look to add a third-down/pass-catching back in the offseason, but Howard should remain a focal point of their offense in 2017.
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington was a seventh-round pick for the Detroit Lions but made the team out of training camp and was on the active game-day roster for Week 1. Originally, he was getting work as a short-yardage back but looked to be in line for a bigger role when Ameer Abdullah was lost to a foot injury in Week 2.
Soon after, foot and ankle issues sidelined Washington for four weeks. Since returning in Week 9, Washington averaged at least four yards per carry in a game just one time. He’s battled Zach Zenner for playing time and hasn’t been impressive. He has no fantasy value.
NFC South
None of note.
Wide Receivers
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AFC East
Malcolm Mitchell, NE
Through the first nine games, Mitchell had just seven receptions for 88 yards on 15 targets. In the last six games, Mitchell has 25 receptions for 313 yards and four touchdowns on 33 targets. His role increased when Rob Gronkowski’s injury woes popped up in November, and he’s played at least 78 percent of the snaps in five of the last six games. His value in 2017 could depend on Gronkowski’s availability.
Robby Anderson, NYJ
Anderson made the New York Jets as an undrafted rookie yet still managed to record a reception in all but three games this season. He wasn’t on the fantasy radar until Bryce Petty took over the starting job in Week 13. Over the next three games, Anderson racked up 14 receptions for 240 yards and two touchdowns on 29 targets. Unfortunately, he was blanked in Week 16 with Ryan Fitzpatrick back under center.
Anderson’s speed and potential changes in personnel make him an interesting dynasty prospect.
AFC West
Tyreek Hill, KC
Hill isn’t your typical fantasy wide receiver. Of his 11 touchdowns, only six have come through the air. He returned one on a kick, one on a punt and ran in the three others. While Hill’s primary contributions have come as a receiver, he comes into Week 17 with 21 carries for 252 yards, including rushing touchdowns in each of the last two games. Other than Travis Kelce, Hill has been the only consistent producer in the Kansas City Chiefs offense in the second half of the season.
AFC North
Tyler Boyd, CIN
In an effort to replace Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, the Cincinnati Bengals signed veteran Brandon LaFell and drafted Boyd. Boyd had his moments but was clearly the third option in the team’s wide receiver corps behind A.J. Green and LaFell.
Boyd had five receptions in back-to-back game just once. He had 50 yards in consecutive games from Weeks 11-13 but had just two other games with at least 50 yards in the rest of the season. When you add in the presence of Tyler Eifert, it’s hard to see Boyd turning into a consistent fantasy option next year.
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman’s rookie campaign was derailed by a broken arm in Week 2. He posted five receptions for 104 yards and two touchdowns on that day but didn’t take the field again until Week 9 and failed to reach five receptions or 45 yards in any game since his return. While Coleman was drafted to play a big role in this offense for years to come, just how big that role becomes depends on if Terrelle Pryor returns to the Cleveland Browns.
AFC South
Will Fuller, HOU
Fuller’s season got off to a great start with 100-plus yards in his first two games and two touchdowns in the last four weeks. Multiple leg injuries, in addition to the poor play of Brock Osweiler, really derailed any chance of Fuller keeping up his productive start.
Since posting seven receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, Fuller has just one game with at least five receptions or 60 yards and hasn’t scored. If the quarterback situation improves, which isn’t a given, Fuller could bounce back in 2017.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Sharpe raised his fantasy profile with an impressive preseason, as he appeared to be the top wide receiver heading into Week 1. He backed that up with seven receptions for 76 yards on 11 targets. That was the peak of his season. Since then, Sharpe hasn’t had more than four receptions in any other game and topped 50 yards just four times. Both Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews became more reliable targets for Marcus Mariota.
If you head into 2017 with fair expectations, Sharpe might be worth drafting as a flier with the hope he’ll have a bigger, more consistent role in his second season.
NFC East
Sterling Shepard, NYG
Shepard generated fantasy buzz from the moment the New York Giants drafted him. His rookie season has been solid, but his fantasy value has been a little too touchdown-reliant. While he’s totaled eight touchdowns through 16 weeks, he’s topped five receptions just twice and 50 yards just four times. Shepard may have had a better season if not for the poor play of Eli Manning. He should head into the 2017 in the WR3 conversation.
NFC West
Pharoh Cooper, LA
Cooper was inactive for six of the first seven games due to shoulder issues and has just 10 receptions for 70 yards on 14 targets for the season. Other than Kenny Britt, no member of the Los Angeles Rams receiving corps has been a consistent fantasy option. With a new coaching staff coming and Britt potentially leaving in free agency, Cooper could find himself in a better situation in his second season.
NFC North
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell had trouble getting on the field as a rookie. He’s been inactive five times, including the last two games, which isn’t a good sign for the rookie. He caught just one of three targets for the year while buried on the Minnesota Vikings wide receiver depth chart. The first-round pick was a total disaster in 2016 and has a long way to go to prove his worth in 2017.
NFC South
Michael Thomas, NO
Thomas got plenty of hype in the preseason, and he’s backed it up with a fantastic rookie season. If not for the performances of Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, Thomas might be getting more attention as one of the top rookies. Fantasy players know how hard it is to make a big impact in New Orleans considering how many skill players are involved, but Thomas has been surprisingly consistent.
Thomas dipped below five receptions just four times and never had fewer than four receptions in a game. He had at least 50 yards in all but three games. While he may have been a sleeper as a rookie, expect to see Thomas drafted in the first two rounds next year.
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Tight Ends
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Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper had a predictable rookie season for a tight end. Historically, it’s a position that doesn’t immediately produce strong fantasy options. Hooper had three games with at least three receptions and four games with at least 40 receiving yards. Even though veteran Jacob Tamme has missed the second half of the season with a shoulder injury, Hooper failed to make a consistent fantasy impact. Hooper will have a chance at a bigger role in 2017 with Tamme heading to free agency.
Tyler Higbee, LA
Higbee’s rookie campaign was a quiet one, as he played behind veteran Lance Kendricks. His snap percent fell between 31-48 percent for the first 12 weeks but has been over 50 percent in three of the last four games, although it hasn’t resulted in much production. He didn’t have a game with more than two receptions and did that only three times. Higbee only has value in deep dynasty leagues.
Hunter Henry, SD
Early in the season, Henry seemed to be bucking the trend of rookie tight ends failing to be reliable fantasy options. With Antonio Gates injured, Henry took on a bigger role for a month as Gates recovered. From Weeks 3-6, Henry brought in 18 receptions for 290 yards and three touchdowns on 24 targets. Once Gates recovered, Henry’s snaps and role diminished.
Henry played at least 56 percent of the snaps from Weeks 2-8. In the eight weeks since (one bye, one missed due to injury), he hasn’t played more than 54 percent of the snaps and has been over 50 percent just three times. Since Week 6, Henry has just one game with more than two receptions or 30 yards, but he does have four scores during that time.
According to Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Gates said, “This is not the way I expected to be done. I’m definitely leaning toward coming back.” As long as Gates is around and healthy, Henry will be tough to consider a weekly fantasy starter, although his role should increase with the potential to be a dominant player.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp.
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