Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 15 Futures Report
Sneaking your way into the fantasy football playoffs takes luck and some courageous decisions along the way. NFL teams need some of that same luck and also must be willing to take some chances, even if that means getting out of the comfort zone.
Will the Baltimore Ravens stick with Kenneth Dixon as their lead back over Terrance West? Dixon was the clear leader last week, but it came in a loss to the New England Patriots, so Dixon was able to get busy as a receiver with the team playing from behind. The Ravens may not need such a high-end performance from their offense with a lesser Eagles team visiting Baltimore this weekend.
Dixon’s performance from last week may have justified stashing him away for a good portion of the fantasy season. While West may not completely go away, Dixon can at the very least be a good flex/RB3 option for your lineup. He may not be one of the key players who got you this far, but you might be considering him for this week’s starting lineup if you’re without Melvin Gordon or Matt Forte.
Barring an injury, the key cogs of your team should be locked into your starting lineup for the fantasy playoffs. If you need help for the last spot or two, consider players like Dixon. He’s playing well on a good team with a need for production out of its backfield. That might be reason enough to use him with your season on the line.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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I’ve already looked at the best options from the waiver wire, but with the news and updated injury information we’ve received since, here are some useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
J.J. Nelson, ARI
Percent Owned: ESPN – 8.7, Yahoo – 20.0
The Cardinals have no choice but to test their depth over the final three weeks of the regular season. Michael Floyd was waived following a DUI arrest earlier in the week, and John Brown remains limited in practices and games by issues connected to his sickle-cell condition. That’s pushed Nelson into a bigger role, and a matchup with the New Orleans Saints waits this weekend.
Last week, Nelson had two touches, but he scored on each of them. First, he had a 56-yard touchdown run on an end around, and then he scored on an eight-yard reception late in the game. With a bigger role expected in Week 15, Nelson shouldn’t have to be so touchdown-reliant for his fantasy production, and the matchup with the Saints isn't much of a concern, as they've been average against fantasy wide receivers in the last four weeks.
Robby Anderson, NYJ
Percent Owned: ESPN – 3.9, Yahoo – 6.0
The New York Jets are in the evaluation phase of the season, which has revealed the connection between Bryce Petty and Anderson. In Petty’s three starts, which came in Weeks 10, 13 and 14, Anderson has 13 receptions for 229 yards and a touchdown on 29 targets. In the same three games, Brandon Marshall has posted 11 receptions for 91 yards and no touchdowns on 19 targets.
Typically, I wouldn’t care much about a connection between players who were backups for much of the season, but Anderson’s role will likely keep him busy on Saturday night against the Miami Dolphins. That’s because Marshall said he’ll be on a “pitch count” due to multiple injuries, according to Rich Cimini of ESPN.com. Anderson could wind up with even more chances as a result.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Dak Prescott, DAL
In the last three games, Prescott hasn’t thrown for 200 yards or more than one touchdown, but it wasn’t much of a problem until he and the Dallas Cowboys took a loss to the New York Giants in Week 14. In that game, Prescott completed just 17 of 37 pass attempts for 165 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He has just four interceptions all season, but that was his first game with multiple picks and only the second time he dipped below 50 percent completed attempts.
In most cases, his struggles would be chalked up to the growing pains of being a rookie and the focus would turn to getting him ready to do better in the next game. It’s not that simple in Dallas, because they currently lead the NFC at 11-2 and have an expensive backup in Tony Romo ready, willing and able to take the starting job back if needed.
On Thursday, December 15, owner/general manager Jerry Jones told Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News, ”We completely support Dak as our starting quarterback, unequivocally. So that’s that. There’s no issue at all.” Prescott has to be better this week against an improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense or the same questions about his job security will continue to come up.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
In Week 14, Siemian returned from his foot issue and immediately injected life back into the passing game of the Denver Broncos. While the team lost on the road to the Tennessee Titans, Siemian had 334 yards and a touchdown on 35-of-51 passing, which helped make both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders 10-catch, 100-yard wide receivers.
Siemian might not be a top-12 fantasy option, but he provides a sense of safety to those using Thomas or Sanders in the fantasy playoffs.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Carson Wentz, PHI
Wentz is out of the running to be a fantasy streamer for the rest of the season, but it was nice to see him get back on track in last weekend’s loss to the Washington Redskins. He connected on 32 of his 46 attempts for 314 yards with a touchdown and an interception. His completion percentage of 69.6 was the best he’s had in the last six games.
While it’s a lost season for the Philadelphia Eagles, it's important for Wentz to finish the year on a high note to build some confidence in his game.
Jared Goff, LA
The Los Angeles Rams were in a miserable spot for Week 15. After finally firing head coach Jeff Fisher earlier in the week, they had to head to Seattle to face the Seahawks on a short week just four days after Seattle's embarrassing loss to the Green Bay Packers. Things didn’t go well for Goff, as expected.
He completed just 13 of 25 passes for 135 yards and took four sacks. He ended up leaving late in the game with a concussion following a vicious hit by Richard Sherman. With just two games left in the season, the Rams will have to decide if it’s worth bringing him back to start if he’s cleared in time.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jordan Howard, CHI
Another week, another 100 total yards for Howard. In Week 14, he caught two of five targets for 24 yards and rushed for 86 yards on 13 carries. With 969 yards on 194 carries, he’s one of three running backs among the top-10 rushers to average at least five yards per carry. Howard remains a must-start with the Green Bay Packers visiting on Sunday.
Thomas Rawls, SEA
Rawls entered Week 15 looking primed to continue his late-season run toward fantasy glory with 27 carries for 173 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. He set a season high with 92 percent of the snaps and 21 carries, but he was completely inefficient with just 34 rushing yards and two receptions for five yards on two targets. Rawls had very little room to run thanks to cracks in Seattle’s offensive line.
The season highs in snaps share and carries were good signs for Rawls’ improved health, so hopefully he can bounce back when the Seahawks host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16.
Jay Ajayi, MIA
Ajayi had one of the tougher matchups in the league in last week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals. He couldn’t get anything going and wound up with just 48 yards on 20 carries and one reception for 15 yards on three targets.
He’ll need to quickly put that behind him because the Miami Dolphins take on the New York Jets on Saturday night. Back in Week 9, he got them for 111 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. Expect Ajayi to have another busy outing since the Dolphins will start Matt Moore in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill (knee).
Rob Kelley, WAS
Kelley hasn’t rushed for more than 63 yards in his last three games, but he was able to find the end zone in last week’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles. His 22-yard touchdown run helped make up for just 63 yards on 16 carries, although he did have a pair of receptions for 25 yards on his only two targets. Kelley should be in the RB2 mix for his Week 15 matchup with the Carolina Panthers.
Tevin Coleman, ATL
Coleman had just 10 touches and 36 percent of the snaps in Week 14, but two trips to the end zone made him a good fantasy option for the first time since he totaled 74 yards and a touchdown in Week 7 against the San Diego Chargers. In last week’s win over the Los Angeles Rams, Coleman carried eight times for 36 yards with a rushing touchdown and added a pair of receptions for 19 yards and a receiving touchdown on three targets.
Week 15 is shaping up to be a busy one for Atlanta’s backfield. They have one of the better matchups against a terrible San Francisco 49ers run defense, so there’s already reason enough to expect a bigger role for Coleman. Julio Jones continues to miss practice with a toe injury and is in serious danger of missing his second-straight game, putting even more focus on Coleman and Devonta Freeman. This could be one of Coleman’s best games of the season.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
As I discussed in the introduction, the Baltimore Ravens turned to Dixon as a busy pass-catcher in their Week 14 loss to the New England Patriots, but will he lead the team’s backfield in Week 15 against the Philadelphia Eagles? For only the second time this season, Dixon outsnapped West, but the gap was a wide one at 60-20 percent. Dixon carried 11 times for 39 yards and had eight receptions for 42 yards and a score on 11 targets.
While Dixon’s increased role may have been a result of Baltimore playing from behind, it’s not like West was leading the way on the ground. He had just two carries for two yards. If the Ravens are smart, they’ll stick with Dixon because he is the better back.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Ty Montgomery, GB
Over the last two weeks, Montgomery has returned to fantasy relevance as the leader in Green Bay’s backfield. The Packers dismantled the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14 and Montgomery finished with 41 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and three receptions for 45 yards on four targets. In the last two weeks, he played at least 50 percent of the snaps with Christine Michael behind him at 19 and 29 percent, respectively.
According to Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, when head coach Mike McCarthy was asked about Montgomery getting upwards of 20 carries, he said, “He can get to that number if he had to.” Montgomery hasn’t had more than nine carries in any game and that happened last week and Week 7. With the Packers playing well and Montgomery back in a consistent role, he’s a good RB3/flex for Week 15 against the Chicago Bears.
Paul Perkins, NYG
Shane Vereen’s return to action didn’t push Perkins out of the mix last week. In fact, both he and Rashad Jennings each had 15 carries for 45 yards. For Perkins, it represented season highs in carries and yards, although he played just 37 percent of the snaps to Jennings’ 54 percent.
Perkins’ Week 15 role against the Detroit Lions will depend on how Vereen recovers from the concussion he suffered in the Week 14 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Perkins is no more than a deep, desperate reach, regardless of Vereen’s status.
Handcuffs/Players You Can’t Use in Their Current Roles
Devontae Booker, DEN
Booker may have led Denver’s backfield with 42 percent of the snaps in Week 14, but he had just three carries for one yard and two receptions for 10 yards on two targets. Meanwhile, veteran Justin Forsett played 41 percent of the snaps and stayed in the mix despite an early fumble with six carries for 17 yards and three receptions for 18 yards on three targets.
Denver’s willingness to trust Forsett with that many snaps in the same week he signed tells you the lack of faith they have in Booker. He has no fantasy value for the rest of this season.
Derrick Henry, TEN
Last week, the Tennessee Titans were smart enough to stay away from the strength of the Denver Broncos defense by throwing just 20 times while Henry carried 12 times for 42 yards and DeMarco Murray had 21 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown. It was only the third time all season and first time since Week 8 that Henry had double-digit carries. Henry’s not productive enough to use in your lineups this week.
Duke Johnson, CLE
In last week’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Johnson carried four times for 24 yards and caught just one of two targets for 21 yards. He has no fantasy value with Isaiah Crowell leading the way for the Browns.
Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Michael Thomas, NO
Thomas had to miss Week 14 due to a foot injury and has been limited in practice this week ahead of the team’s trip to Arizona to face the Cardinals. He leads the team with 69 receptions and seven touchdowns, but he trails Brandin Cooks in targets (94-89) and yards (870-831). If he does play against the Cardinals, consider him a WR3 in a tough matchup.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Crowder may have been a key waiver-wire addition during the season and helped you make the playoffs, but he became a major disappointment once you got there. Last week, he caught two of five targets for 37 yards. It was the first time since Week 5 he didn’t have 13 fantasy points in points-per-reception formats and only the third time all season he failed to reach that mark. He should have a good chance to get back on track against the Carolina Panthers.
Tyreek Hill, KC
Even with Jeremy Maclin’s return to action in Week 14, Hill caught all six of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown and had a 78-yard punt return touchdown. Maclin had just one catch for 16 yards on three targets. Along with Travis Kelce, Hill has been a top fantasy option for the Kansas City Chiefs for the last two months. He’s a strong WR2 with a great matchup against the Tennessee Titans in Week 15.
Tyrell Williams, SD
With confidence that his shoulder injury wasn’t a major hindrance, Williams looked like a good play against the Carolina Panthers in Week 14. Unfortunately, Philip Rivers decided to have yet another bad outing, and Williams was limited to just two receptions for 68 yards on five targets. That gives him four receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown on nine targets in the last two weeks. He’ll have a good chance to rebound in his Week 15 matchup with the Raiders.
Malcolm Mitchell, NE
Mitchell’s hot streak reached four games after he posted four receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown on five targets in last week’s win over the Baltimore Ravens. That’s four touchdowns in four games on 21 receptions, so he’s clearly been a bit touchdown-reliant. While the rookie has been a huge boost in both fantasy and reality, expectations for this week take a big hit with a trip to Denver on the way. Mitchell is a WR3 at the very best.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Sterling Shepard, NYG
Shepard’s fantasy production has been tied to chances of finding the end zone. He didn’t score last week and had just three receptions for 39 yards on four targets. Shepard has double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats just one time all year without a touchdown, and that came back in Week 2 (eight receptions, 117 yards). Being that touchdown-reliant is dangerous, which makes Shepard a risky play.
DeVante Parker, MIA
Parker barely made a blip on the fantasy radar last week thanks to just two receptions for 14 yards on three targets. He’s been hit-or-miss all season, and while this week’s matchup with the New York Jets isn’t a bad one, the team’s passing game gets a downgrade with Matt Moore starting over the injured Ryan Tannehill (knee).
Tyler Boyd, CIN
If you picked up Boyd when A.J. Green (hamstring) went down in Week 11, the results have be solid, but not spectacular. He has at least 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues in each game, with between four and six receptions and 49-66 yards. If Green returns to action in Week 15 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Boyd’s chances of another 10-point game take a big hit.
Cameron Meredith, CHI
Meredith came back to life with six receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown on eight targets against the Detroit Lions in Week 14. He’s shown enough this season to keep on the fantasy radar for 2017, although it’ll be hard to consider him for Week 15 with Alshon Jeffery returning from suspension.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Breshad Perriman, BAL
Perriman hasn’t developed into anything more than a big-play threat for the Baltimore Ravens, which is fine, but it’s hard to trust for fantasy purposes. He connected with Joe Flacco on a 47-yard completion in last week’s loss to the New England Patriots. He had three receptions for 52 yards on four targets.
Perriman doesn’t have more than three receptions in any game this season, and despite averaging 15.6 yards per catch, he’s never had more than 64 yards in a game.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
None of note.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Hunter Henry, SD
Henry had fantasy value early in the season when Antonio Gates was battling injury, but as of late, he’s become a touchdown vulture for the rest of the San Diego Chargers receiving corps. Henry scored in three of his last four games, including last week, but he has just seven receptions for 58 yards on 11 targets over that span. That’s not good enough to use as anything more than a fantasy prayer, and even that is pushing it.
Long-Term Projects/Not Contributing Enough in Current Role
Will Tye, NYG
Even though he had some fantasy value as a rookie, Tye has been almost worthless in 2016. Over his last four games, he hasn’t had more than two receptions or 22 yards. He has just three games all season with at least four receptions.
Austin Hooper, ATL
Even with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu out of the lineup last week, Hooper failed to make any impact in a blowout victory over the Los Angeles Rams. He had a single reception for five yards on three targets. He’s averaging 14.6 yards per catch, but he has just 18 receptions through Week 14.
Clive Walford, OAK
Last week, Walford couldn’t even keep up with Mychal Rivera. Walford caught two of three targets for 21 yards while Rivera had three receptions for 26 yards on five targets. It’s tough enough Walford has to battle for targets with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but another tight end on the roster, too? Maybe Walford can make more of an impact in 2017.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Friday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp.
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