Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 13 Futures Report
For those relying on young running backs down the stretch of the NFL and fantasy football seasons, you might be looking at Week 13 with some desperation.
Last week was a disappointing one for Thomas Rawls, Jay Ajayi, Rob Kelley and Wendell Smallwood. While Ajayi and Kelley have earned the benefit of the doubt because they’ve been more good than bad this season, Rawls and Smallwood have a lot more to prove this week.
Jordan Howard has been the lone bright spot for the Chicago Bears offense because he’s been consistent. He’s been able to avoid major injury, handle a busy workload and produce as a legit fantasy RB1 since taking over for Jeremy Langford in Week 4.
Unlike NFL head coaches who can be stubborn when it comes to trusting young running backs, you can’t be so fickle in fantasy football and nor should you be when the talent is clearly there.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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Early in the week, we looked at the best options from the waiver wire but with the news and updated injury information we’ve received since, here are some useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Taylor Gabriel, ATL
Percent Owned: ESPN—36.7, Yahoo—37.0
I’ve had trouble getting behind Gabriel as a reliable fantasy wide receiver but if he’s still available on your waiver wire, he should be owned, at least to strengthen your bench or make sure someone who is WR-needy doesn’t get him.
Gabriel has a chance to stay hot when he takes on the Kansas City Chiefs in Atlanta this weekend. That’s a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers in the last four weeks.
At 51 percent of the snaps last week, Gabriel was down from the 68 percent he had before the bye in Week 10. However, he still had his best fantasy performance of the season with four receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns on five targets. Gabriel has five touchdowns over his last four games and at least 52 receiving yards in each of those games. With Tevin Coleman back, it gives the Falcons a lot of mouths to feed, but Gabriel seems to be an important one.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ
Percent Owned: ESPN – 9.5, Yahoo – 17.0
Quincy Enunwa, NYJ
Percent Owned: ESPN – 45.1, Yahoo – 34.0
Because we’re so deep in the season, you have to look a little deeper for sleepers. Seeing a couple of New York Jets might give you reason to skip right to the next name on the list, which is understandable, but consider this week’s matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.
In the last four weeks, the Colts allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Last week, Fitzpatrick went 22-of-32 for 269 yards and two touchdowns in a strong performance against the New England Patriots. In that game, Enunwa caught all five of his targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. No team has given up more fantasy points to wide receivers over the last month than the Colts.
Ladarius Green, PIT
Percent Owned: ESPN – 11.8, Yahoo – 17.0
You might be tired of waiting for Green to come through, which I get, but you also may be approaching desperate times if you lost Rob Gronkowski (back) or could be without Jordan Reed (shoulder) this weekend. If you need help, it’s not a bad time to take a shot on Green.
In Week 12, Green’s third game of the season, he played his most snaps at 26 percent with two receptions on three targets for 67 yards. According to Dale Lolley of the Observer-Reporter, head coach Mike Tomlin “expects increased reps moving forward” for Green and that “he’s excited about potential contributions” from the tight end. Those contributions could come this weekend since the New York Giants are a bottom-10 defense against tight ends in the last four weeks.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Dak Prescott, DAL
Prescott might be the quarterback of a team with 11 straight victories, but the numbers he put up over the last two weeks show why the Dallas Cowboys are getting things done as a team and not just because of Prescott.
In a Week 12 matchup with the Washington Redskins, he threw for just 195 yards and a touchdown but still managed to save some of his fantasy value with 39 rushing yards and a touchdown. That wasn’t the case when he faced the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13. Prescott ran for 37 yards on six carries but had just 139 passing yards and one touchdown on 12-of-18 passing.
Prescott will likely be a solid starter in the fantasy playoffs, but just know that the Cowboys can still win without Prescott putting up huge numbers.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Carson Wentz, PHI
Wentz isn’t getting much help from his offensive line or receivers, which was apparent when the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Green Bay Packers in Week 12. Wentz completed 24 of 36 attempts for 254 yards and an interception. He ran for a season-high 33 rushing yards and his first rushing touchdown.
With the Washington Redskins, Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants on the schedule for the fantasy playoff weeks, you’ll have a hard time justifying a spot for Wentz in your starting lineup unless you’re desperate.
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
After throwing for 368 yards and three touchdowns in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, Siemian might not even get a chance to follow up on his monster fantasy performance this week in Jacksonville. According to the team's injury report, he’s been out of practice with a foot injury and may need Lynch to start in his place.
No matter who’s playing quarterback for the Denver Broncos, this has to be considered a tough matchup with the Jaguars. They held quarterbacks to the seventh-fewest points in the last four weeks. Turning to Lynch would hurt the fantasy value of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in what’s already a difficult matchup for those two.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff’s Week 11 debut didn’t go so well, but some improvements were on display when he made his second start in New Orleans against the Saints in Week 12. He completed 20 of 32 passes for 214 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. He made some great throws and showed signs of life we didn’t see with week before when the Rams hosted the Miami Dolphins. He'll be in another tough environment on Sunday in New England.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jordan Howard, CHI
As I talked about in the intro, Howard is one of the young running backs you can trust down the stretch. Last week was the sixth time he’s had at least 99 total yards; Part of that includes four games with at least 100 rushing yards. The Chicago Bears might be out of contention, but Howard should have a busy and potentially very productive outing when the Bears host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
Thomas Rawls, SEA
With C.J. Prosise sidelined by a scapula injury last week and for the near future, Rawls had a chance to reclaim the starting job with authority in Seattle but failed to do so against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His snaps stayed fairly even (60 percent-59 percent), yet that produced just 38 yards on 12 carries and no receptions.
Rawls doesn’t have any serious competition for touches, so he’ll have every chance to get back on track, although it won’t be easy with the Carolina Panthers on deck this Sunday night in Seattle.
Jay Ajayi, MIA
After running for 529 yards in three games between Weeks 6-10, Ajayi hasn’t hit even 80 rushing yards in the last three weeks. With a minimal role in the passing game (16 receptions, 87 yards, 21 targets), Ajayi can’t afford to dip too far below the century mark in rushing yards. He was saved by a rushing touchdown last week in a game that saw him run 18 times for 45 yards with a favorable matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Miami was without three starting offensive linemen.
Miami’s offense needs Ajayi to keep playing his consistent role and other than last week, he’s done that at a reliable level. He’ll have a stiff test when he faces the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13.
Devontae Booker, DEN
Booker salvaged another rough day on the ground (24 carries, 79 rushing yards) by getting over 100 total yards with a catch for 22 yards on one of two targets. It’s the only time this year he’s gone for at least 100 total yards and the most yards he’s had since the 30 receiving and 54 rushing yards he put up in Week 8, which was the first game without C.J. Anderson.
With 48 carries in the last two games for Booker, any concerns about Kapri Bibbs taking on a big role or significant touches away from Booker have disappeared. Unfortunately, even with the heavy workload, Booker hasn’t performed well enough to be called anything more than a low RB2 at the very best.
Rob Kelley, WAS
The Dallas Cowboys were finally able to slow down and stop Kelley’s hot streak on Thanksgiving. Kelley had just 37 rushing yards on 14 carries. He had at least 21 carries and 87 rushing yards in three previous games with four touchdowns.
Kelley’s role as the lead back in Washington has no threats, but it could be tough for him to get back on track with a bad matchup in Arizona against the Cardinals. Hopefully, Kelley’s volume picks back up since he’ll need it to have a decent fantasy performance.
Tevin Coleman, ATL
In his first game back from a hamstring injury that kept him out for three games, Coleman had just eight carries for nine rushing yards but did run in a touchdown and had two receptions for four yards on two targets. His performance wasn’t great, but jumping right back in at 46 percent of the snaps was encouraging. He’ll try to find his old form at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
If you stashed away Dixon, the results are finally starting to justify his spot on your roster. Last week was the busiest he’s been all season with 13 carries for 49 yards and four receptions for 31 yards on four targets. For the fourth straight week, Dixon’s snap percentage rose, going up to 45 percent. For the first time, that beat out Terrance West (33 percent).
If the Baltimore Ravens were smart, they’d cut out this split in touches and give the majority to Dixon. Even in his current role, Dixon is worth a shot as a RB3/flex in your lineup.
T.J. Yeldon, JAC
Yeldon’s battles with Chris Ivory for snaps and touches have made both players tough to trust on a team that’s already bad. Ivory’s hamstring injury has kept him out of practice this week, putting his status in question for Week 13. Yeldon has battled an ankle injury but has been able to get a limited practice in, per the team's injury report, so he has a better chance of playing.
With Ivory averaging more than 12 touches per game, Yeldon would likely see somewhat of an uptick in touches, although that wouldn’t take much since he had one reception and six carries last week. You’re better off staying away from Yeldon at such an important time in the fantasy season.
Wendell Smallwood, PHI
Offensive line issues didn’t do Smallwood any favors in Week 12, so he was limited to 37 rushing yards on nine carries and a single catch for 10 yards. Smallwood and Darren Sproles will take care of the likely absence of Ryan Mathews (knee) once again in Week 13, but it’s Sproles, not Smallwood, who would be the preferred fantasy option if you have to reach into this backfield against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Handcuffs/Players You Can’t Use in Their Current Roles
Derrick Henry, TEN
While we’ve seen DeMarco Murray miss some practice time with a foot injury, we haven’t seen much of Henry this year. In fact, Henry didn’t even have a carry in Week 11. That’s why it was surprising to see him carry eight times for 60 yards and a rushing touchdown in a win over the Chicago Bears.
Managing Murray’s snaps is a good idea, especially with a talented player like Henry to take some responsibility off Murray’s plate. It would be too hard to call Henry more than a handcuff you’d be willing to chance in your lineup.
Duke Johnson, CLE
With just 56 carries for 271 yards on the season, Johnson clearly doesn’t mean much to the Cleveland Browns as a runner, but he’s been a reliable receiver with 45 receptions for 410 yards on 63 targets. Unfortunately, he doesn’t do enough as a receiver to justify a spot on fantasy rosters this late in the season.
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
Washington was a healthy scratch last weekend while Richard carried seven times for 23 yards clearly playing behind Latavius Murray. Other than Murray, no one in the Oakland Raiders backfield has any fantasy value.
Ty Montgomery, GB
In the three games since James Starks returned to action, Montgomery has eight carries for 28 yards and seven receptions on eight targets for 50 yards. He’s been outsnapped by Starks in each of those games and now has to worry about Christine Michael cutting in after he debuted for the Green Bay Packers last week. While the team wants to get all of their backs involved, there’s not enough to go around to make Montgomery relevant for fantasy again.
Paul Perkins, NYG
Perkins played between 30-40 percent of the snaps in the last four games with 23 carries for 108 yards and seven receptions for 48 yards on 10 targets. He’s clearly behind Rashad Jennings in the New York Giants backfield and that won’t be changing anytime soon since the team currently owns the fifth seed in the NFC. Perkins would need an injury to Jennings to have fantasy value.
Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Michael Thomas, NO
Thomas had one of the better games of his rookie season last week when the Los Angeles Rams visited the Superdome. Thomas caught nine of 10 targets for 108 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams tried to take away Brandin Cooks and they did (0 targets), but it didn’t matter since the Saints had plenty of other options to go to like Thomas. Thomas should be a top-20 fantasy wide receiver for the rest of the year.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Last week, Crowder had eight receptions for 88 yards on 10 targets in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys. That gives him least 16 fantasy points in PPR formats in four of his last five games and at least 13 fantasy points in his last six games, which shows how consistent he’s been for those playing him with confidence every week.
With Jordan Reed (shoulder) probably out this week, Crowder could see a few more targets since Reed’s the most targeted player for the Washington Redskins.
Tyreek Hill, KC
If you don’t believe in Hill as an every-week starter yet, you might want to take another look at last week’s performance against the Denver Broncos. Hill grabbed nine of 10 targets for 52 yards and a receiving touchdown. He also had a rushing touchdown and an 86-yard kickoff return touchdown.
Hill’s snap percentage was 67 percent, which kept him in the 60-percent range for three games in a row. He topped out at 35 percent in the first eight games, so his role has clearly changed for the better.
Tyrell Williams, SD
Could the San Diego Chargers be without Williams this weekend? A shoulder injury kept him out of practices this week, per the team's injury report, which means he’s not a lock to play on Sunday when the team faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Williams had eight receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets last week, so potentially playing without their top receiver would be another big blow to this team.
Malcolm Mitchell, NE
Mitchell could be the perfect example of a player emerging at the right time. In the last two weeks, he has nine receptions on 12 targets for 140 yards and three touchdowns. In Week 11, he played 86 percent of the snaps with Rob Gronkowski out because of a lung issue. With Gronkowski back in Week 12, Mitchell’s snaps dipped to just 47 percent of the snaps.
Now that Gronkowski’s out for the season, Mitchell has a chance to be a consistent option for the Patriots, especially after producing at a high level in the last two games.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Sterling Shepard, NYG
Shepard’s streak of three games with a touchdown ended last week in Cleveland of all places. One of the shakiest defenses in the league kept Shepard totally off the board, as he didn’t even register a target. It can’t get any lower than that, so anything would be an improvement for Shepard, although that doesn’t mean you can use him with confidence in this week’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
DeVante Parker, MIA
Parker was on his way to another strong fantasy performance last weekend, but a back injury derailed that and put his status for Week 13 in jeopardy. According to Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post, offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said it would be considered a “bonus” if Parker can play on Sunday. He’s been a key contributor in the last three weeks and would be missed if he can’t go against the Baltimore Ravens.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
In the first game without A.J. Green, the Cincinnati Bengals got five receptions for 62 yards on nine targets out of Boyd in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. That made him the busiest wide receiver, which doesn’t say much since Brandon LaFell was next up with three receptions for 38 yards on nine targets. Another game without Green means Boyd could stay fairly active again and with a decent matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, you can insert him into a WR3/flex spot in your lineup.
Eli Rogers, PIT
Rogers had just six receptions for 56 yards on eight targets in his last two games. The Pittsburgh Steelers threw it just 20 times in their win over the Indianapolis Colts, so that's part of the reason Rogers was limited to two receptions for 36 yards on two targets. He’s far from a lock to be in your lineup and would be a desperation reach play this week against the New York Giants.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Sharpe seemed to be turning his season around coming into last week’s game with the Chicago Bears. After posting seven receptions for 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 11 targets in the previous two games, Sharpe had just two receptions for 11 yards on three targets in Week 12. With the Tennessee Titans on bye this week and the Denver Broncos up next, Sharpe doesn’t have to stay on your roster.
Will Fuller, HOU
Is Fuller coming back to life? He showed signs of it when he caught four of six targets for 60 yards in last week’s loss to the San Diego Chargers. You’ll need to see more than that before you can play him with any confidence. Because this week’s matchup against the Green Bay Packers isn’t bad, Fuller is a deep reach, but that means you have to put faith in Brock Osweiler. Good luck.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman got into the end zone last week as part of a three-reception, 38-yard performance in a loss to the New York Giants. He doesn’t have more than four receptions or 41 yards in four games since returning from his broken hand. Other than Terrelle Pryor, the Browns don’t have a reliable fantasy option. Coleman doesn’t have reliable value after the Week 13 bye.
Phillip Dorsett, IND
Dorsett failed to make an impact earlier this season when Donte Moncrief missed five games. He’s still a forgettable part of the offense after catching just three of six targets for 31 yards last week when the Indianapolis Colts lost the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Cameron Meredith, CHI
The Chicago Bears played from behind for most of last week’s loss to the Tennessee Titans, so Matt Barkley took to the air 54 times. Meredith saw nine of those targets but managed just two receptions for 19 yards on nine targets. Besides the 20 receptions for 243 yards and one touchdown he had in Weeks 5-6, Meredith has been useless for fantasy. Look elsewhere to fill his spot on your fantasy roster.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
In his last two games, Perriman has one reception, a 14-yard touchdown on three targets. He’s yet to catch more than three passes in any game and hit 50 yards just once. Perriman’s not consistent enough to consider for fantasy, especially in a weak Baltimore Ravens offense.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
None of note.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Hunter Henry, SD
After missing Week 9 with a knee injury, Henry has four receptions on five targets for 31 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games. While Antonio Gates was blanked last week, he still outsnapped Henry 63-50 percent. Henry isn’t the strong fantasy option he was earlier in the season, but he might have a chance at a big role if Tyrell Williams (shoulder) can’t go and Travis Benjamin (knee) remains limited this week. He’s a deep reach at best for Week 13 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Long-Term Projects/Not Contributing Enough in Current Role
Will Tye, NYG
Tye’s snaps jumped into the 72-79 percent range in the three games before Week 12, but he played a season-high 88 percent last week in his matchup with the Cleveland Browns. Unfortunately, he posted just two receptions for 12 yards on two targets. He had the same numbers the week prior on five targets, but scored a touchdown. You’re better off staying away and looking elsewhere for a tight end.
Austin Hooper, ATL
Now that Tevin Coleman is back and Taylor Gabriel is playing a bigger role, Hooper is an afterthought in the Atlanta Falcons offense. He has just three receptions for 16 yards on five targets in the last two games. He’s useless for fantasy.
Clive Walford, OAK
For only the first time since Week 2 and only the second time all season, Walford hit double-digit fantasy points with three receptions on four targets for 43 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win for the Oakland Raiders over the Carolina Panthers. He hasn’t had more than four targets, three receptions or 43 yards in the last nine games. He’s not involved enough to consider using.
Jesse James, PIT
In the last two games, James has five targets and one reception for five yards. Meanwhile, Ladarius Green caught two of his three targets for 67 yards in Week 12 when the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Indianapolis Colts. As discussed in the late-week waiver wire, Green is in line for more reps and a bigger role, so James might as well be a ghost in this offense.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Friday morning.
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