Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 10 Futures Report
NFL fans can get hung up on reputation, whether it’s right or wrong, positive or negative. Fantasy football players tend to do the same, and that can cause lapses in judgment.
Those cloudy judgments can come if you hold grudges against certain players for supposedly costing you a fantasy matchup at some point. You can also hold a player in high regard who may not deserve it if he helped you win a championship with a random big performance.
I bring this up because of the quarterback decisions some fantasy owners may be debating for Week 10. If you’re streaming QBs either by strategy or necessity, you might be faced with the prospect of using Jay Cutler or Carson Wentz. Others may have already used Joe Flacco and come away happy with his 296 yards and three touchdowns.
We know Cutler has a reputation for his surly demeanor and tendency to throw terrible interceptions. He’s also a pretty good quarterback when he’s on, as we saw in Week 8 against a very good Minnesota Vikings defense. If it’s just for one week, he’s definitely worth a look on Sunday when the Chicago Bears face a shoddy Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense.
Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles have struggled since a strong start to the season, so it may not be easy to overlook the shaky play of a rookie quarterback. However, he did throw for 364 yards last week out of necessity against the New York Giants and may need to do the same when he takes on a beatable Atlanta Falcons defense in Week 10.
Think of the fantasy players who overlooked two ugly starts for Colin Kaepernick because he and the San Francisco 49ers had a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Saints last weekend. Nobody complained when he threw for 398 yards and two touchdowns. He was worth using for a week because he was set up to succeed.
The same can be said for Cutler and Wentz, if you’re willing to focus on just this week and the opportunities they have to excel in their respective matchups. We’re off to a good start with Flacco on Thursday night, so hopefully those two follow suit.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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I covered the top options on the waiver wire earlier in the week, but with the news and injury information we’ve received since, here are a few useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Brian Quick, LA
Percent Owned: ESPN – 7.3, Yahoo – 8.0
I know it’s hard to get excited about anyone in the Los Angeles Rams passing game, but based on this week’s matchup with the New York Jets, you may want to consider taking a shot on Brian Quick. While the Jets didn’t get much of a test from the Miami Dolphins last week, in their previous four games, wide receivers who faced the Jets had at least 15 receptions and 170 yards.
Of the eight games Quick’s played this season, four have been what I’d call useful for fantasy purposes. By that I mean he scored double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats. In his last five games, Quick averaged six targets, almost four receptions, more than 64 yards and 17.8 yards per catch. He hasn’t scored since Week 4, but he has three touchdowns for the year. Because the Jets still have a solid run defense, Los Angeles should take to the air, meaning Quick could hit on a big play or two.
Eli Rogers, PIT
Percent Owned: ESPN – 10.4, Yahoo – 4.0
Rogers’ name hasn’t been mentioned much since he posted six receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown in the season opener against the Washington Redskins. That was also the last time he had anywhere near relevant numbers for fantasy, until last week against the Baltimore Ravens.
While it was part of some garbage-time production for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Rogers wound up with six receptions for 103 yards on 10 targets and played 67 percent of the snaps (Sammie Coates was at 65 percent). While it doesn’t mean Rogers is ready to explode, it does show he can get it done when the Steelers give him a chance.
Rogers gets a crack at the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. They’ve given up at least 15 receptions, 150 yards and a touchdown to wide receivers in three of their last four games.
Trevor Siemian, DEN
Percent Owned: ESPN – 17.4, Yahoo – 15.0
If you’re reaching really deep at quarterback this week, you might come across Siemian as a possible option thanks to a good matchup with the New Orleans Saints. We’re talking about a defense that let Colin Kaepernick get them for 398 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9 after throwing for a combined 330 yards in his previous two starts.
Does that mean Siemian is a strong streamer? No, but he’s definitely viable. He’s thrown for more than 270 yards in his last two games, including 283 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week’s loss to the Oakland Raiders. The Broncos have struggled to get their ground game going in the last two weeks, so Siemian may take to the air at least 35 times, as he’s done in three of the last four contests. Against QBs, the Saints surrendered 300 yards five times and two touchdowns five times.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Carson Wentz, PHI
As I discussed in the introduction, Wentz is in the streamer conversation this week with an interesting matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Before we get to that game, let’s look back at what he did in the Week 9 showdown with the New York Giants. While he managed to throw for 364 yards, he didn’t have a touchdown and threw two interceptions on 27-of-47 passing in the loss. Both the 364 yards and 47 attempts were season-highs.
The Falcons may be one of the best teams in the division, but it’s not because of their pass defense. In the last four weeks, they rank sixth in most fantasy points allowed to QBs thanks to 1,223 yards and nine touchdowns. That would be enough reason to consider Wentz, but necessity also comes into play.
The Eagles defense hasn’t given up a 300-yard game all season, but they have allowed 12 passing TDs in the last six weeks. Atlanta’s offense will take advantage of those struggles. The necessity to throw could also come from the team’s inability to find a consistent rushing attack. They rank near the middle of the league in rushing yards per game. The Eagles need Wentz to come through on Sunday. If he does, you should get a strong fantasy performance.
Dak Prescott, DAL
With Tony Romo approaching full health, Prescott needed to bounce back from a shaky effort against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 8 when he took on the hapless Cleveland Browns in Week 9. That’s exactly what he did by completing 21 of 27 pass attempts for 247 yards with three touchdowns and rushing for 20 yards. He took advantage of a matchup he should have excelled in and the team dominated.
The level of competition jumps back up with a trip to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in Week 10. After giving up more than 300 yards in their first three games, the Steelers haven't allowed opposing QBs to top 255 yards in the last four games. During that span, they allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points. Prescott won’t have it easy, so we’ll see if he’s closer to the guy who took out the Browns or the one who struggled to put away the Eagles.
He won’t have to worry about Romo taking his job this week. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network (via Kevin Patra of NFL.com), Romo likely won’t be active for Week 10, but he could be active as Prescott’s backup in Week 11.
Short-Term Fill-Ins
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
I already discussed Siemian’s chance of being a legitimate streamer in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints, but what about his hold on Denver’s starting job? According to Mike Klis of 9News, Gary Kubiak was asked about going to Lynch and said, “No, we like what Trevor is doing. Like all of us, he has to get better.”
After opening the season 4-0, Denver’s lost three of its last five games, including last week's contest against the Oakland Raiders. Siemian hasn’t completed 60 percent of his passes in his last three games and only hit that number exactly in Week 6. He completed at least 65 percent of his attempts in the first four games and attempted 35 passes just once in that span. Over the last four weeks, he threw at least 37 passes three times.
It’s fair to wonder if Lynch would have the starting job by now if the Broncos weren’t in contention, but they are in contention for both the division and a wild-card playoff spot. For now, the job will remain with Siemian, but he needs to perform better to keep it.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
None of note.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network (via Chris Wesseling of NFL.com), the Los Angeles Rams won’t make a move to Goff until they are out of playoff contention. Coming into Week 10, the Rams sit at 3-5 following losses in their last four games. They trail the Seahawks by 2.5 games in the NFC West and are 1.5 games out of the final wild-card spot held by the Washington Redskins.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
The most we’ve seen of Garoppolo is mop-up duty, since we know Tom Brady isn’t coming off the field unless the game is well in hand in the fourth quarter. Garoppolo hasn’t thrown a pass since Week 5.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jay Ajayi, MIA
If you’re still asking about starting Ajayi, your standards are way too high. He didn’t run for 200 yards again, but he still racked up 111 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries in a tough matchup with the New York Jets in Week 9. As a bonus, he added three receptions for 19 yards on four targets.
And if you weren’t sure how important Ajayi’s been to the offense, just look at Ryan Tannehill’s stats over the last three games. He’s averaging just over 28 pass attempts per game while Ajayi is averaging more than 27 touches per game. The Dolphins have won their last three games, so don’t expect much to change when they take on the San Diego Chargers this week.
Devontae Booker, DEN
It didn’t take long for the excitement surrounding Booker to disappear. Following his okay start (19 carries, 54 rushing yards, one touchdown, one fumble) in Week 8 against the Chargers, Booker totaled just 22 rushing yards on 10 carries and added a single reception for eight yards on three targets. Booker’s snaps have been right at 83 percent in those two games, but a new challenger has emerged and could be trouble
Kapri Bibbs played just 15 percent of the snaps in Week 9 and carried just twice for 11 yards, but he made an impression when he zigzagged his way through the Raiders defense en route to a 69-yard catch-and-run touchdown. According to Cameron Wolfe of the Denver Post, head coach Gary Kubiak said Bibbs “earned more opportunities to touch the football.” That doesn’t mean you should be dumping Booker and rushing to start Bibbs, but it is a situation worth monitoring.
Rob Kelley, WAS
When Matt Jones sat out Week 8 because of a knee injury, Kelley got a heavy workload. He carried 21 times for 87 yards and a touchdown while playing a season-high 47 percent of the snaps. Ever since then, Kelley has been on top of the depth chart with head coach Jay Gruden saying, “Rob Kelley is our first string running back,” according to Master Tesfatsion of the Washington Post.
Kelley is the back to own in Washington, while Jones looks droppable. Kelley will try to back up his expected start with a good game against a strong Minnesota Vikings defense.
Jordan Howard, CHI
With his fantasy status totally up in the air, Howard had his best game of the year with season-highs across the board in Week 8 before the bye. He carried 26 times for 153 yards and a touchdown. Plus, he added four receptions for 49 yards on four targets while playing 82 percent of the snaps.
According to Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com, Howard owns a “stranglehold” on the starting job for the Bears, as he should. For the year, Howard has three games with at least 111 rushing yards and averages 5.1 yards per carry.
Ty Montgomery, GB
Because Montgomery has running-back eligibility on most hosting sites, I can officially move him into the RB category for the purposes of this article. That’s primarily what he worked as during the team's game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. Montgomery rushed for 53 yards on seven carries and caught all three of his targets for 38 yards while playing 45 percent of the snaps.
According to Packers.com, head coach Mike McCarthy said, "We had Ty (Montgomery) on a rep count, & rightfully so. We like the way he played." If he’s ready for more action in Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans, he should get it, even if James Starks is active for the first time since Week 5 coming back from a knee injury.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
Washington and Richard took somewhat of a backseat to Latavius Murray in the Week 9 win over the Denver Broncos. While Murray ran for 114 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries, Washington had just 35 yards on 10 carries, while Richard posted 62 yards on eight carries and two receptions for 10 yards on three targets.
Still, Murray played just 51 percent of the snaps compared to 22 percent for Richard and 20 percent for Washington. Neither Washington nor Richard can be used with confidence for fantasy purposes unless Murray were to go down again.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
The Baltimore Ravens backfield hasn’t been very helpful for fantasy players over the last three games, but did we see some changes to get excited about in the Ravens' Week 10 win over the Cleveland Browns?
Terrance West still led the way with 41 percent of the snaps, but Dixon’s presence rose again and he finished at 32 percent. More importantly, it was Dixon who led the way with 80 total yards on six rushes and five receptions, while West had 21 carries for 65 yards and one reception for 12 yards. Dixon outperformed West by the numbers for the first time this season. Hopefully, his snaps and touches continue to rise.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Paul Perkins, NYG
As expected, Perkins’ role grew coming out of the bye, but it didn’t mean much. He was on the field for 34 percent of the snaps compared to 58 percent for Rashad Jennings. Perkins and Jennings each had 11 carries, but Perkins won that yardage battle 32-26. Perkins added three receptions for 15 yards on three targets, while Jennings had three receptions for 13 yards on three targets.
Perkins’ chances of truly breaking out this season seem like more of a pipe dream than actual reality. Hopefully he’ll get more chances as the season moves through the second half of the year, but I’m not counting that turning into reliable fantasy production unless Jennings gets hurt.
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington was a healthy scratch in Week 8, but he returned to action in Week 9 against the Vikings. He had just 26 yards on 10 carries and no receptions. It’s Theo Riddick or bust in Detroit’s backfield.
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
A healthy Jonathan Stewart relegated Artis-Payne to a couple of healthy scratches in the team’s last three games. He has no fantasy value unless Stewart goes down with another injury.
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Drake hasn’t had a carry in the last three games and caught just one reception on his only target last week. He’s useless in a backfield that’s all about Jay Ajayi.
Wide Receivers
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Michael Thomas, NO
Over the last four weeks, the New Orleans Saints have the fourth-best and fifth-best fantasy wide receivers with Thomas just ahead of Brandin Cooks. For the season, Thomas has one more target (63-62), six more receptions (47-41) and the same amount of touchdowns (five), while Cooks leads in yards (596-573). The Saints have a great 1A/1B situation between Cooks and Thomas, so continue to use both with confidence.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Despite the return of Jordan Reed in Week 8, Crowder remained on the field for at least 70 percent of the snaps for the third straight game. He caught nine of 13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. Reed was also great with nine receptions for 99 yards and a score on 13 targets, so it showed both players can be high-end performers.
Crowder comes out of the bye with back-to-back 100-yard efforts and the clear trust of the coaching staff as a regular part of Washington's offense going forward. According to JP Finlay of CSN Mid-Atlantic, DeSean Jackson’s shoulder injury will keep him out in Week 10 against the Minnesota Vikings. Crowder’s hold as the top fantasy WR in Washington gets a little stronger.
Tyrell Williams, SD
A knee injury may be limiting Williams’ practice time, but he’s still been productive when it comes to the games. After posting just one reception for four yards on six targets against the Denver Broncos, Williams bounced back with six receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown in last week’s matchup with the Tennessee Titans.
With Travis Benjamin’s knee injury looking worse and still no solid return to productivity for Hunter Henry, Williams remains an important part of this offense.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Cameron Meredith, CHI
Before Chicago’s Week 9 bye, we found out that the concerns for Meredith with Jay Cutler at quarterback were justified. He still played his normal snaps (87 percent), but he had just one catch for 24 yards on two targets. He had two receptions for 36 yards on four targets in the last two outings.
The Bears come out of the bye with a favorable schedule starting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, so we’ll find out real quick if Meredith has any fantasy value.
Sammie Coates, PIT
I considered Coates a deep sleeper last week, but both he and the Pittsburgh Steelers struggled to get anything going for much of the loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Coates didn’t catch any of his five targets, including a would-be touchdown. He has just one reception for four yards on 10 targets in the last three games, so he’s not worth using until further notice.
Corey Coleman, CLE
It’s not really a surprise to see how quiet Coleman’s been since returning from his broken hand in Week 8. He caught three of seven targets for 41 yards in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys and then wound up with three receptions for 17 yards on five targets when the Cleveland Browns lost to the Baltimore Ravens. Yo-yoing between Cody Kessler and Josh McCown doesn’t help Coleman’s chances.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Breshad Perriman, BAL
Perriman popped back on the radar with a fantastic catch on a 27-yard touchdown from Joe Flacco during the Baltimore Ravens' victory over the Cleveland Browns. It was the best game of the season for Perriman, with three receptions for 64 yards on four targets, including his first-career TD. He’s still too much of a boom-or-bust player to even roster at this point in the season.
Will Fuller, HOU
A leg injury limited Fuller to just one reception for 23 yards on four targets in Week 8 before the team’s bye. He’s been limited in practice this week, which isn’t a great sign since he had a week off to rest. Even if he was fully healthy, he’d be tough to consider a useful option against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a bad quarterback like Brock Osweiler.
DeVante Parker, MIA
As I mentioned when discussing Jay Ajayi, the Miami Dolphins passing attack has taken a backseat over the last three games, and there’s no reason to really change that since they won each game. With Ryan Tannehill averaging less than 30 attempts per game during the last three games, Parker has just 10 receptions for 56 yards on 15 targets in that time. Ajayi is the only Dolphin you can play with confidence right now.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Since starting the season with seven receptions for 76 yards on 11 targets, Sharpe hasn’t had a game with more than four receptions or 60 yards. In Week 9, he nearly broke those streaks, but finished with just four receptions for 58 yards on eight targets, his most since Week 1. Marcus Mariota might be playing well, but it’s meant nothing for Sharpe’s fantasy value.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Boyd doesn’t have much of a chance with Tyler Eifert back into a prominent role in the offense. Before the Week 8 bye, A.J. Green and Eifert combined for 30 targets, 18 receptions, 223 yards and a touchdown. Boyd has just two games with double-digit fantasy points and doesn’t belong on any fantasy rosters.
Devin Funchess, CAR
With just one reception for 28 yards in Week 9, Funchess now has four games with zero or one catch and all but one game with less than 40 yards. Forget him.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
In Week 9, Agholor had his best performance since Week 2, although that’s not saying much since he grabbed four of seven targets for 41 yards. It was only the third time this season he had four receptions and more than 40 yards. He’s another useless player for fantasy.
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Did former offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s exodus from the Minnesota Vikings open the door for Treadwell? He caught his first and only target of his career last week for 15 yards and played 25 percent of the snaps. It’s not much, but at least he’s finally getting a chance.
Kevin White, CHI
White is eligible to return from the injured reserve in Week 13, but he isn’t worth stashing and the Bears could be way out of the playoff picture by that point. It’s likely another lost season for White.
Tight Ends
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Austin Hooper, ATL
With Jacob Tamme out in Week 9 because of a shoulder injury, Hooper got a big chance for the Atlanta Falcons and came through by catching three of six targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. The rookie has flashed this season at times, but this was his first chance at a big role and he did well for himself.
According to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, head coach Dan Quinn said Tamme is “likely out” again in Week 10, so Hooper gets a chance to build on what he did last week when he takes on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Hunter Henry, SD
Henry sat out Week 9 with a knee injury that’s been troublesome for weeks now. Unfortunately, Henry’s cooled off in a big way over the last three weeks after performing at a strong TE1 level in the previous month. He’s been limited at practice this week, but he'll try to get back out there on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. You can roster him, but he’s not considered a reliable fantasy starter until further notice.
Jesse James, PIT
As Ladarius Green inches his way back from his ankle injury, James hasn’t done anything to quiet the calls for Green to play a prominent role upon his Pittsburgh Steelers debut, whenever that is. Last week, James had two receptions for 13 yards on four targets. He hasn’t had more than two catches, more than 18 yards or a touchdown in the last three games.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Clive Walford, OAK
Walford is barely the Oakland Raiders' fourth-best option in their receiving corps if you go by the numbers, but he’s probably fifth-best if you put Andre Holmes in front of him as a big red-zone threat. Walford caught two of three targets for 13 yards against the Denver Broncos last week. He hasn’t scored since Week 2, which was also the last and only time he had more than three receptions or more than 31 yards.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Friday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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