Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 8 Futures Report
Recognizing a potential impact player in fantasy football can take you a long way.
We’re not even into the second half of the NFL season yet, but we’re already past the halfway point of the fantasy football regular season. If you can land an impact player off the waiver wire at this point, it could be the difference between you winning a championship or missing the playoffs completely.
With C.J. Anderson out indefinitely, the Broncos turn to rookie running back Devontae Booker. Because Booker doesn’t have any real competition for touches in Denver’s backfield, he’s quickly ascended to RB1 status. The talent was always there, but now the opportunity is greater.
Those that grabbed Booker over the last few weeks have been rewarded for their efforts with an immediate upgrade to their RB stable. If you can stay ahead of the game, sometimes the payoff can be even better than expected. I don’t expect many other situations like this to arise, so don’t take them for granted.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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Because it’s late in the week, you’re probably looking at slim pickings on the waiver wire. I already covered the top adds earlier in the week, but with the news and injury information we’ve received since, here are four useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Rob Kelley, RB, WAS
Percent Owned: ESPN—1.1, Yahoo—12.0
Last week, Matt Jones lost his second fumble of the season and sixth in two years. That gave the Redskins reason to involve Chris Thompson and Kelley more against the Lions. Thompson ending up leading the backfield in almost every rushing and receiving statistic, in addition to playing 59 percent of the snaps compared to 30 percent for Jones and 14 percent for Kelley.
Thompson looked like the safest addition off the waiver wire as the most trustworthy Redskins running back. Then, Jones missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury. According to Master Tesfatsion of the Washington Post, head coach Jay Gruden said, “If Matt has an issue where he can’t go, it would be Robert in the lead role, more likely.”
If Kelley does lead the way on Sunday against the Bengals in London, he could have a chance to do some damage. Over the last four weeks, the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs and more than 5.2 yards per carry. Kelley could be a pick-up-and-play option if you’re stuck for a running back in Week 8.
J.J. Nelson, WR, ARI
Percent Owned: ESPN—0.2, Yahoo—1.0
The Cardinals receiving corps is a bit of a mess coming into Week 8. Of the team’s top four wide receivers, Nelson is the only healthy option, and he could be playing an important role on Sunday against the Panthers as a result.
The Cardinals lost Jaron Brown to a torn ACL in Week 7, and while John Brown (hamstring) is expected back this week, he’s been limited in practice. Michael Floyd has a hamstring injury of his own and hasn’t practiced ahead of the game in Carolina.
Nelson was called on to play a bigger role last week and caught three of his seven targets for 84 yards. Even if John Brown is back, Nelson looks like he’ll be lining up as a starter with a favorable matchup. The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last month. Nelson has legitimate fantasy value this week.
Josh McCown, QB, CLE
Percent Owned: ESPN—0.6, Yahoo—0.2
This may seem like a stretch, but if you’re searching for a QB this weekend due to six teams being on bye, McCown might be worth a look. McCown hasn’t played since hurting his shoulder in Week 2, but he’s been back to full practice this week and head coach Hue Jackson said “all signs are pointing” to McCown getting the start, according to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
The Browns host the Jets on Sunday, which isn’t a terrible matchup. The Jets have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Because Cleveland’s defense remains vulnerable on the ground and through the air, McCown could be throwing more playing from behind. With volume and matchup in his favor, McCown is a deep sleeper this weekend.
Justin Hunter, WR, BUF
Percent Owned: ESPN—0.3, Yahoo—1.0
If you took a chance on Hunter last week with Robert Woods (foot) sidelined, you ended up with just two receptions for 25 yards. Going back to Hunter in Week 8 isn’t a terrible idea because Woods has been limited in practice and Marquise Goodwin is likely unavailable after suffering a concussion in Week 7.
Taking a shot on Hunter is all about opportunity. Without Woods and Goodwin, the Bills don’t have another option in the passing game besides tight end Charles Clay. Hunter could be getting more targets by default in a game where the Bills are a clear underdog to the Patriots.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Carson Wentz, PHI
Wentz survived last week’s brutal matchup with the Vikings. The Eagles won thanks to a strong performance from their defense and special teams, so Wentz’s numbers didn’t matter much in the end. He went 16-of-28 passing for 138 yards with a touchdown, two interceptions and a pair of fumbles, one of which he lost. Rough outings are to be expected for the rookie, especially against one of the best defenses in the league.
Will Wentz bounce back on Sunday night in a huge prime-time showdown in Dallas? The difficulty level won’t be as high based on the matchup with a Cowboys team that sits in the middle of the pack against QBs in the last month. Wentz might not be one of the best fantasy options for Week 8, but he definitely has more value than last week.
Dak Prescott, DAL
Other than throwing his first interception, Prescott did a fine job in a convincing win over the Packers in Week 6 before the team’s bye. He completed 18 of his 27 attempts for 247 yards and a season-high three touchdowns in addition to the interception. He added one carry for six yards.
The Eagles visit Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday night with a defense that’s top-ranked against fantasy QBs on the season, although they’ve dipped to 10th-best over the last four weeks. No QB has thrown for more than 263 yards against the Eagles, and they’ve allowed a total of six touchdowns in six games, all of which came in the last three weeks.
Dallas will likely lean heavily on Ezekiel Elliott since the Eagles are more vulnerable against the run than the pass. Prescott may not have to do much for the Cowboys to win, but he needs to keep protecting the football.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
Siemian had what may have been his worst start of the season in a Week 7 victory over the Texans. He connected on just 14 of his 25 pass attempts for 157 yards with a touchdown. Of course, he didn’t have to do much since C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker combined for 190 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries.
The Broncos will turn to Booker to lead their backfield with Anderson sidelined by a knee injury that may wind up ending his season. Booker should be up to the task, so Siemian shouldn’t be asked to do much more in the offense than keep the ship afloat. He’ll face the Chargers for the second time in three weeks, but likely won’t go to the air 50 times as he did in a loss at San Diego back in Week 6.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
None of note.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff remains the backup to Case Keenum, and that’s not changing on game days. However, head coach Jeff Fisher said the Rams will use the bye week to get Goff some first-team reps, according to Myles Simmons of TheRams.com.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
The most you’ll see of Garoppolo is mop-up duty since we know Tom Brady isn’t coming off the field unless the game is a blowout in the fourth quarter. Garoppolo hasn’t seen the field since Week 5.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jay Ajayi, MIA
Ajayi killed any notion of his 204-yard performance in Week 6 being a fluke by topping that with 214 yards in Week 7. Over the last two weeks, Ajayi has 53 carries for 418 yards and three touchdowns.
According to Chris Perkins of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, head coach Adam Gase said, “When you run the style that he’s running now, where it’s physical—he’s taking on a lot of hits, but he’s breaking a lot of tackles—over time that’s going to take a little bit of a toll, so we just have to make sure we monitor throughout the game."
Those sentiments make sense, but there’s one player who won’t be taking some of those carries off Ajayi’s plate, and that’s Arian Foster. Foster announced his immediate retirement earlier this week due to mounting injuries. That leaves the Dolphins with Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake behind Ajayi, although neither is much of a threat to steal significant touches.
Devontae Booker, DEN
The biggest fantasy news of the week came out of Denver, where the Broncos are likely to place C.J. Anderson on injured reserve with a knee injury, according to Mike Klis of 9News. Anderson had surgery Thursday to repair a torn meniscus, per Klis. The extent of the injury could be bad enough to keep Anderson out for the season, although recovery could have him back in eight to 12 weeks.
With Anderson down, the Broncos must lean on Booker to carry the load as their starting running back. Through seven weeks, Booker has 51 carries for 244 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and nine receptions for 69 yards on 13 targets. Considering the expected uptick in his touches for the rest of the season, Booker’s relatively low touch total through the first seven weeks is a good sign. He’s in the RB1 conversation.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Rob Kelley, WAS
As I touched on in the late-week waiver wire slide, Kelley has a chance for a bigger role this week thanks to Matt Jones’ fumbling issues and a knee injury that’s kept him out of practice. Kelley’s 14 percent of the snaps in Week 7 was a season high, but that number should jump significantly this weekend against the Bengals.
It’s a good matchup, and while Chris Thompson will be involved, Kelley has a chance to lead the team in carries.
Jordan Howard, CHI
Concern for Howard continues to increase following two shaky games and the return of Jeremy Langford to the practice field. Last week in Green Bay, he faced one of the best run defenses in the league and was held to 22 yards on seven carries and no receptions.
Before Langford’s return to practice, the use of Ka’Deem Carey raised concerns for Howard’s fantasy value. Carey had nine carries for 50 yards in Week 6 and 10 carries for 48 yards plus a catch for nine yards in Week 7.
Playing time is also starting to slip. After two games with more than 90 percent of the snaps, Howard’s snaps have dropped the last two games. He was down to 46 percent in Week 7, which put him behind Carey’s 54 percent.
If Langford returns on Monday night against the Vikings, the Bears could field the dreaded three-headed backfield, which would be the deathblow to Howard’s fantasy value. He may be the most talented back in Chicago, but it won’t matter if touches are split up between the three. Thanks for nothing, John Fox.
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
The Raiders got Latavius Murray back from a toe injury in Week 7 and decided to give him his heaviest workload of the season. Murray racked up just 59 yards on 18 carries, but found the end zone twice and added a pair of receptions for four yards on five targets. He led the backfield with 58 percent of the snaps.
Washington was behind with 18 percent of the snaps and five carries for 18 yards and a reception for six yards on two targets. Richard caught his only target for no gain and rushed for a yard on his only carry while playing just 5 percent of the snaps.
Even though Murray remains touchdown-reliant, he continues to lead the way, and neither Washington nor Richard had much fantasy value without Murray in the lineup, so they’re basically useless now.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
It might be time for the Ravens to take an extended look at Dixon. Last week, the Jets held Terrance West to just 10 yards on eight carries. That came a week after he ran 23 times for 87 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. In three games, Dixon has just six carries for 10 yards and three receptions on four targets for six yards.
According to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, head coach John Harbaugh said he’d like to see Dixon play more. Dixon’s struggles in pass protection may be keeping him off the field, but as the Ravens come out of their bye, it’s a good time to see what they have in Dixon. The offense desperately needs a spark and maybe he can provide it.
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington hasn’t been active since Week 4 thanks to an ankle injury. He’s been back to full practice this week and should be ready to return to action on Sunday against the Texans. Theo Riddick should also be returning from an ankle injury of his own. Washington and Riddick should jump back into their normal roles, which were handled by Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
The return of Jonathan Stewart meant the exit of Artis-Payne from fantasy relevance. Before the bye, he wasn’t even active for Week 6 against the Saints. He means nothing for fantasy unless Stewart goes down again, and even then he doesn’t have strong value since Fozzy Whittaker would also be in the mix.
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Drake has taken a back seat to Ajayi in Miami’s backfield. He hasn’t had a carry or a target in the last two weeks. His competition on the depth chart dropped by one with the retirement of Arian Foster, although it doesn’t mean much since he’s still behind Ajayi and Damien Williams.
Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Ty Montgomery, GB
Depending on your league-hosting site, Montgomery is listed as a wide receiver or as a wide receiver/running back, which makes sense considering the majority of his snaps have come out of the backfield in the last two weeks.
Last week, Montgomery’s snaps rose from 51 percent to 69 percent with nine carries for 60 yards and 10 receptions on 13 targets for 66 yards. Don Jackson played just 7 percent of the snaps with two carries for six yards, and Knile Davis finished with 6 percent with two carries for one yard.
According to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus, Montgomery played 48 snaps in the backfield, 10 in the slot and two on the outside. Montgomery should continue to get work out of the backfield, but it might not be as much this week. According to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, head coach Mike McCarthy said Davis is “part of the game plan.”
With Randall Cobb battling a hamstring injury that could keep him out of action, Montgomery could have double-digit targets and receptions in a good matchup with the Falcons on Sunday. His fantasy value remains high.
Michael Thomas, NO
The Saints can be frustrating for fantasy owners because they insist on using so many players in both their receiving corps and backfield. That’s why it’s so impressive to see Thomas, as a rookie, emerge as a prominent part of their offense. With his 10 receptions for 130 yards on 13 targets last week, he now sits at 36 receptions on 49 targets for 437 yards and three touchdowns on the season.
Sure, he was busy in garbage time last week, but he also out-snapped Willie Snead for the third straight game. Thomas is second to Brandin Cooks in targets, yards and touchdowns, but leads the team with 36 receptions, which is tied for 17th-most among all wide receivers. He’s established himself as a solid WR3 for fantasy.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
With Jordan Reed sidelined by a concussion for the last two games, Crowder has benefited from a rise in playing time and targets. He had a great matchup against the Lions in Week 7 and came through with seven receptions for 108 yards on nine targets while playing 75 percent of the snaps.
Reed has been cleared to travel to London with the team, but still needs to get full clearance to return to action on Sunday morning. His return could hurt Crowder’s fantasy value, but may not kill it completely. While he trails DeSean Jackson in targets (49-44), he has more receptions (33-31), yards (391-368) and touchdowns (3-1). Hopefully, Crowder’s strong play over the last two weeks keeps him in the mix.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Cameron Meredith, CHI
When Meredith took over for Kevin White, he led the team with 20 receptions for 243 yards and a touchdown on 27 targets in the first two games. He looked like a perfect No. 2 WR behind Alshon Jeffery and had a good rapport with quarterback Brian Hoyer.
Week 7 may have crushed his fantasy value. Hoyer broke his arm and is now on injured reserve. Meredith had just one catch for 12 yards on two targets. Going from Hoyer to Jay Cutler could be a tough transition since Cutler is more familiar with Jeffery and tight end Zach Miller. Plus, this won’t be an easy week to work Cutler back in with a terrible matchup against the Vikings.
Tyrell Williams, SD
Williams has established himself as the most reliable wide receiver in San Diego after posting seven receptions on 10 targets for 140 yards in last week’s win at Atlanta. It’s the second time he’s had 100-plus yards in the last three games. While he trails Travis Benjamin in targets (49-47) and receptions (35-31), he has a clear lead in yards (526-465) thanks to 17 yards per catch.
While you shouldn’t have much confidence in him to top the three receptions and 28 yards he had against the Broncos in Week 6 when they face off again in Week 8, Williams does look like the real deal for fantasy purposes, and it helps to play with a great quarterback like Philip Rivers.
Sammie Coates, PIT
Without Ben Roethlisberger on the field, Coates has little fantasy value. In Landry Jones’ first start against the Patriots in Week 7, Coates had just one catch on one target for four yards. His hand might not be 100 percent, but the bigger issue is the drop-off at QB. Hopefully Ben is back after the bye to boost Coates back into fantasy relevance.
Will Fuller, HOU
It came as no surprise to see Fuller’s struggles continue last week when the Texans took on the Broncos in Denver. Fuller got seven targets, but turned just four of them into receptions totaling 22 yards. He has just one game with more than five receptions and hasn’t hit 100 yards since opening the season with a pair of 100-yard efforts.
The play of quarterback Brock Osweiler isn’t helping, so hopefully the entire passing offense can get back on track against the Lions this weekend. Over the last four weeks, Detroit is the ninth-worst defense against fantasy wide receivers.
DeVante Parker, MIA
Parker had another quiet performance in Week 7 in a win over the Bills. He hauled in three of four targets for 20 yards. In his last five games, he’s topped 30 yards just twice and had more than three receptions just once. Jarvis Landry is the clear leader of the team’s receiving corps, but Kenny Stills is doing just enough to take Parker out of the running for your fantasy lineups. That may not change anytime soon.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
The Ravens want more out of Perriman, but they aren’t getting it. In a favorable matchup with the Jets in Week 7, he caught just one of five targets for 11 yards. That gives him only 14 receptions for 183 yards on 34 targets this year.
According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, head coach John Harbaugh told Perriman he’s “impatient” because he wants to “speed the curve up” for Perriman’s learning process. Perriman’s inconsistent play has killed any chance of him emerging as a potential sleeper.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Since starting his career with seven receptions for 76 yards on 11 targets, Sharpe hasn’t had a game with more than four receptions or 60 yards. That includes the one-catch, 11-yard performance he had against the Jaguars in Week 8. Other than tight end Delanie Walker, the Titans don’t have a go-to receiver. Continue to ignore Sharpe.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Boyd remains an inconsistent part of Cincinnati’s offense. He had his worst output of the season in Week 7 against the Browns. Despite the favorable matchup, Boyd managed just one catch for three yards on three targets. With the return of Tyler Eifert and an expected uptick in the tight end’s role, Boyd will have trouble carving out a big role in the Bengals offense.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman continues to inch his way back from a broken hand. While he’s been back at practice this week, he still isn’t catching passes. According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Coleman said that once he starts catching, he's playing. The timing could work out well since quarterback Josh McCown is expected to take the starting job back as soon as this week.
Devin Funchess, CAR
Funchess got back on the board in Week 6 against the Saints with two receptions for 28 yards and a TD on six targets. He now has two scores on seven receptions for the season. He’ll come out of the bye with a tough matchup against the Cardinals, not that you were planning on picking him up anytime soon.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Little was expected of the Eagles in a tough matchup against the Vikings last week, so we got another forgettable performance by Agholor. He saw six targets, yet managed just two receptions for 10 yards. Agholor hasn’t had more than four receptions in any game and hasn’t had 50 yards or a touchdown since Week 1. He’s been a big bust for the Eagles approaching the halfway point of his second season.
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell hasn’t recorded a target in the first seven weeks. He’s buried on the depth chart and means nothing for fantasy.
Josh Doctson, WAS
Doctson landed on injured reserved thanks to his nagging Achilles injury. That keeps him out for at least eight weeks, although at his point, if he played anymore this season it would be considered an upset.
Kevin White, CHI
White is eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 13, but he isn’t worth stashing, as the Bears could be way out of the playoff picture by that point. It’s likely another lost season for White.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
Hunter Henry, SD
Henry’s hot streak was stopped in Week 7 despite a great matchup with the Falcons. He caught just one of three targets for 16 yards and suffered a concussion. Even though he missed time because of the injury, he still out-snapped Antonio Gates 63-51 percent. That's the third straight game he’s played more snaps than Gates.
Surprisingly, Henry practiced all week and just needs final clearance to play on Sunday against the Broncos. When the teams met in San Diego back in Week 6, Henry had his best game, posting six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. He’d be a top-10 fantasy TE if active for Week 8.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Jesse James, PIT
James failed to get anything going with Landry Jones in last week’s loss to the Patriots. He caught both of his targets for 18 yards. The absence of Ben Roethlisberger certainly hurt James’ value, although it’s not like he’s been consistent.
The question becomes what happens to James once Ladarius Green is cleared to play? Green returned to practice this week and the team now has 21 days to activate him to the active roster. The Steelers return to action in Week 9 against the Ravens. James doesn’t have much value as it stands now, but he’d have almost none when Green gets on the field.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Clive Walford, OAK
Any attempts to get Walford more involved in the offense aren’t working. Last week in Jacksonville, he had one catch for five yards on two targets. For the season, he has 16 receptions on 23 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown. Until he strings together some solid performances, he remains off the fantasy radar.
Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper’s shown flashes so far, but no consistent contributions. He was blanked for the third time this year last week and has just six receptions for 154 yards and a TD on six targets. It doesn’t help that he’s playing on a team that has plenty of talented pass-catchers.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. Ownership percentages courtesy ESPN and Yahoo.
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