Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 7 Futures Report
Sometimes in the NFL, opportunity means more than talent. Sometimes talent means more than opportunity. Sometimes the two meet and you end up with Ezekiel Elliott running behind the best offensive line in the league.
When it comes to fantasy football, opportunity can be enough reason to boost a player into your starting lineup. Look at wide receiver Ty Montgomery in Green Bay. In his last two games, a lot of his work came out of the backfield thanks to the injuries to Eddie Lacy and James Starks. It’s a unique situation, but it’s how you exploit opportunity.
Opportunity might be the reason you shy away from a talented player, too. Look at what’s happening to Will Fuller in Houston. After a hot start, Brock Osweiler’s play has been poor and Fuller is trending in the wrong direction. He’s still a great player but you may bench him this week knowing that Osweiler may have trouble getting him the ball against a tough Denver Broncos defense.
Being able to identify when opportunity outweighs talent, and vice versa, can be the difference between victory and defeat. Choose wisely.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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Because it’s late in the week, you’re probably looking at slim pickings on the waiver wire. I already covered the top adds earlier in the week, but with the news and injury information we’ve received since, here are useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Mike Gillislee, BUF
Percent Owned: ESPN – 4.8, Yahoo – 26
With the knowledge we have, Gillislee might be the top waiver add of the week, whether you’re talking about my early-week look at the waiver wire or whom you should look to snatch up heading into the weekend.
According to Josina Anderson of ESPN, the hamstring injury that kept LeSean McCoy out of practice on Thursday will keep him out for Week 7 and possibly more time, depending on how it heals.
That puts Gillislee into the starting lineup for the Bills and your fantasy team as well.
Gillislee hasn’t been very busy over the first six games, but he’s averaging 6.9 yards per carry on 17 attempts. Last week, he tied a season high with six carries, 61 yards and a touchdown, his second in as many weeks. He’s the clear backup to McCoy with 70 snaps on the season compared to 15 for rookie Jonathan Williams.
Moving from McCoy to Gillislee is a clear step down, but it’s not a steep decline. In fact, Gillislee did a great job over the final five games of 2015, rushing for 267 yards and three touchdowns on 47 carries. His ceiling isn’t as high as others' since he doesn’t play much of a role in the passing game.
As it pertains to the discussion of talent vs. opportunity, Gillislee’s in great shape. He’s a proven runner stepping into a starting role on a team that’s fifth in average rushing attempts on the season.
This week, he faces a Dolphins defense that allows 4.4 yards per carry to running backs. Because Gillislee could be an important fantasy asset for multiple weeks, your whole league—not just McCoy owners—could and should be after him. It may take some work to get him on your team, but it will be worth it.
Mike Davis, SF
Percent Owned: ESPN – 6.7, Yahoo - 12
Shaun Draughn, SF
Percent Owned: ESPN – 3.5, Yahoo - 2
One of the other big running back injuries of the week is the shoulder problem for Carlos Hyde. He didn’t practice this week and won’t play on Sunday, but he told Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle that the injury is “definitely not long-term.”
So where does that leave the 49ers backfield for Sunday?
Earlier this week, head coach Chip Kelly said the team would use a rotation including Davis and Draughn, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. That might sound like a headache for fantasy players, but we’re talking about the No. 2 team in rush attempts per game (32).
So far, Draughn has 26 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown on the season. Davis has just 10 carries for 18 yards. Draughn also has more production as a receiver with four receptions for 23 yards on seven targets. Davis has a couple of catches for 16 yards on four targets, although three of those four targets came last week.
I expect Davis to get the most carries of the group with Draughn getting the most targets. They’ll take on the Buccaneers, who allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs over the first six weeks.
Don’t consider either back to be anything more than the last man in your lineup.
Adam Thielen, MIN
Percent Owned: ESPN – 4.9, Yahoo – 5
Unlike the running backs on this list, I’m less sure of the role Thielen will play on Sunday against the Eagles, so he’s more of a prospective add to your roster.
When Stefon Diggs (groin) sat out Week 5, Thielen lit the Texans up for 127 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions (eight targets) while playing a season-high 92 percent of the snaps. He hovered anywhere from 53 to 66 percent in the previous four games.
Diggs was listed as limited in the first two days of formal practice this week, so with the bye week allowing him extra rest, it appears he’s on track to return, although that’s not official and may not be until Sunday.
Because the Eagles limit WRs to the fourth-fewest fantasy points, you’d only consider using Thielen if Diggs is inactive. Basically, Thielen is your emergency backup plan.
Mohamed Sanu, ATL
Percent Owned: ESPN – 40.6, Yahoo - 37
I’m a little surprised to see the No. 2 WR in one of the league’s best offenses available in more than 50 percent of ESPN and Yahoo leagues. I know Sanu hasn’t been a reliable, weekly starter for fantasy, but he’s worth considering as a reach when the matchup’s in his favor, and it will be with the Chargers visiting Atlanta in Week 7.
Sanu’s best performances of the season came in Week 1 (five receptions, 80 yards, one touchdown) and last week, when he had a team-high 10 targets with five receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown in a tough matchup against the Seahawks.
He faces an average Chargers defense this weekend, so assuming the groin that’s limited him in practice isn’t a problem, Sanu is a sneaky grab-and-play for Week 7.
Quarterbacks
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Carson Wentz, PHI
In the two games since Philadelphia’s Week 4 bye, Wentz’s fantasy value has taken some hits even though he’s not playing poorly. In Week 6, he was a victim of strange game flow. The Eagles ran just 48 offensive plays in a game they lost 27-20 in Washington. Wentz went 11-of-22 passing for 179 yards without a touchdown or turnover.
The Eagles got a defensive touchdown and special teams touchdown in the second quarter, so Wentz barely saw the field until the second half. Considering the matchup looked good by the numbers, Wentz’s numbers fell well short of expectations.
Expectations won’t be high on Sunday when the Vikings visit the Eagles. Both teams possess a top-five defense against QBs in terms of fantasy points allowed, so this isn’t the week to feel good about Wentz being in your lineup—if you have to use him at all.
Dak Prescott, DAL
The worst thing Prescott did in Week 6 was throw the first interception of his career, but not before setting a record of 176 attempts without an interception to start a career.
Other than that, he did a fine job in a convincing win over the Packers. He completed 18 of his 27 attempts for 247 yards and a season-high three touchdowns plus the aforementioned interception. He added one carry for six yards.
Prescott enters his Week 7 bye as a top-10 fantasy QB and gets to keep his job for at least another week once he returns in Week 8. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Cowboys will stick with Prescott for their showdown with the Eagles and possibly beyond that if Romo isn’t ready for Week 9 against the Browns.
It’s the right call regardless of Romo’s status and is great for owners who kept him through the bye.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
The Broncos got Siemian back from his non-throwing shoulder injury for their Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup in San Diego, and the result was a bad loss and a shaky performance by the second-year QB. Siemian completed just 30 of 50 attempts for 230 yards with a late TD.
Because Lynch didn’t look ready for the starting job when he was called upon to start in Week 5, Siemian’s leash should be a little longer even though he struggled in Week 6.
Hopefully, this QB situation doesn’t continue to hurt the fantasy values of the other Broncos.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
None of note.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff is the primary backup to Case Keenum, who has shown improvement, and the Los Angeles Rams sit at 3-3. Unless there’s a major shift or an injury, Goff isn’t coming off the sidelines.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
The most you’ll see of Garoppolo is mop-up duty since we know Tom Brady isn’t coming off the field unless the game is a blowout in the fourth quarter.
Running Backs
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Jay Ajayi, MIA
The return of Arian Foster (groin) to the active gameday roster may have scared some off using Ajayi in his Week 6 matchup with the Steelers. If you stuck with Ajayi, he paid off with 204 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, which was punctuated by a 62-yard TD run in the fourth quarter.
Was it enough to lock down the starting role and keep him in the area of 15-20 touches and the 69 percent of snaps he played in Week 6? If head coach Adam Gase and his staff have any clue, then yes, Ajayi should be their guy in what has been an ugly committee at times this season. He won’t have an easy time against the Bills this weekend, but he could be a decent RB2 going forward.
Jordan Howard, CHI
It didn’t take long for Howard’s fantasy value to be put into question following two great performances replacing the injured Jeremy Langford. Last week, Howard ran 15 times for 34 yards and a TD and caught just two of four targets for six yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars. On Thursday night in Green Bay, he faced one of the best run defenses in the league and was held to 22 yards on seven carries and no receptions.
It would be easy to point to a couple of tougher matchups in the Jaguars and Packers as reasons for Howard’s numbers to drop, but you also have to consider the use of Ka’Deem Carey. Carey had nine carries for 50 yards in Week 6 and 10 carries for 48 yards plus a catch for nine yards in Week 7.
The biggest concern for Howard is his playing time. Following two games with more than 90 percent of the snaps, Howard played 69 percent in Week 6, which is actually more of a reasonable number for a lead back. Did he stay that high? Nope. Howard’s snaps dropped again in Week 7—this time to 46 percent, which put him behind Carey’s 54 percent.
Once again, another John Fox-led team can’t stick with a lead back for long without working someone else into the mix. The 1-6 Bears should be taking a long look at Howard instead of Carey’s increased role, but you can’t assume anything, which has put a damper on Howard’s rise up the fantasy ranks.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
In Week 5, Richard had slightly better fantasy numbers than Washington, but he was outsnapped 51-32 percent. That was not the case in Week 6, when Washington again led the way with 58 percent of the snaps and 49 yards on 10 carries. Richard played just 25 percent of the snaps and wound up with four carries for seven yards and two receptions for five yards on three targets.
So now that Washington’s numbers and snaps seem to be in line, the Raiders are due to get Latavius Murray (toe) back this week barring a setback, according to Adam Caplan of ESPN. This gives us an even bigger mess in this backfield, and one you’ll have to watch this weekend to see if Murray jumps back out in front.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Those who stashed Dixon away might be getting a little antsy. While his snaps rose from six percent to 12 percent in Week 6, he went from three carries for negative-one yard and one reception for six yards to two carries for 11 yards and a catch for one yard.
Terrance West has firm control of the top spot in Baltimore’s backfield after rushing for 87 yards and a pair of TDs and snagging four of his six targets for 36 yards in Week 6. West played a season-high 60 percent of the snaps, which has to be the biggest concern if you have Dixon. Dixon’s spot on your fantasy roster is getting tougher to justify.
Devontae Booker, DEN
Booker’s snaps were on the rise each week over the first five games with the percentage rising to 41 compared to C.J. Anderson’s 51 percent in Week 5. Does that make him a threat to Anderson?
Booker’s snaps dropped to 21 percent and Anderson jumped back up to 78 percent in Week 6. Through six weeks, Booker has 34 carries for 161 yards (4.7 yards per carry) and eight receptions for 65 yards on 11 targets. Anderson has 16 catches for 128 yards and a TD on 24 targets and 330 yards and three TDs on 94 carries (3.5 YPC).
Consider Booker just a handcuff to Anderson; he'd be a risky play as anything other than a last-ditch flex option. However, if you have Anderson, you should own Booker as a pretty good handcuff.
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington sprained both his foot and ankle in the Week 4 loss, so he had to sit out Week 5 and Week 6. With Justin Forsett now in the mix and Theo Riddick trying to come back from an ankle injury, Washington’s chances of becoming fantasy-relevant aren’t looking too promising.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
The return of Jonathan Stewart meant the exit of Artis-Payne from fantasy relevance. He wasn’t even active for last week’s game against the Saints. He means nothing for fantasy unless Stewart goes down again and even then, he doesn’t have strong value.
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Drake has taken a backseat to Ajayi in Miami’s backfield. He didn’t have a carry or a target in Week 6, and the Dolphins didn’t miss him at all. Other than Ajayi, no Dolphin RB has any fantasy value until further notice.
Rob Kelley, WAS
So when Redskins head coach Jay Gruden hinted at more touches for Kelley before Week 6, he was actually telling the truth. Kelley had his most productive game of the season with five carries for 59 yards. Of course, that came in the same week Matt Jones ran for a season-high 135 yards and a TD on 16 carries.
Sticking with Jones would be wise since he seems to get better with more touches and after their fourth straight victory, it wouldn’t make sense for the Redskins to mess with what’s working. Kelley looks like the handcuff to Jones in Washington.
Wide Receivers
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Cameron Meredith, CHI
In the first two weeks taking over for Kevin White, Meredith led the team with 20 receptions for 243 yards and a touchdown on 27 targets. He was a perfect No. 2 WR behind Alshon Jeffery and had a good connection with quarterback Brian Hoyer.
Week 7 may have killed that excitement dead. Hoyer broke his arm and was replaced by Matt Barkley with Jay Cutler (thumb) still inactive. Meredith had just one catch for 12 yards on two targets. The drop in QB quality is a big one and Meredith’s value might only be saved by Cutler’s return. Unfortunately, Cutler hasn’t practiced since going down in Week 2 and his status remains in limbo.
Ty Montgomery, GB
Montgomery is listed as a wide receiver, but that's a title that really doesn’t fit how the Packers are using him. Without the services of Eddie Lacy (ankle) and James Starks (knee), the Packers traded for Knile Davis earlier this week and promoted Don Jackson off the practice squad, but it’s been Montgomery leading the way in the backfield.
Last week, Montgomery was on the field 51 percent of the time with three carries for six yards and 10 receptions for 98 yards on 12 targets. On Thursday night, his snaps rose to 69 percent with nine carries for 60 yards and 10 receptions on 13 targets for 66 yards. Jackson played just seven percent of the snaps with two carries for six yards, and Davis finished with six percent with two carries for one yard. Jackson left the game with a hand injury.
According to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus, Montgomery played 48 snaps in the backfield, 10 in the slot and two on the outside. That’s a RB who just happens to be called a WR, and that usage probably won’t change much. Hopefully hosting sites give Montgomery RB eligibility to help make your lineup decisions easier. The bottom line is Montgomery gets the biggest boost from the absences of Lacy and Starks.
Sammie Coates, PIT
Week 6 wasn’t a good one for Coates. He played through a broken finger and laceration, but he wasn’t able to bring in any of his four targets. Coates’ value took a hit when Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury that could keep him out anywhere from two to six weeks depending on his recovery from surgery. In the meantime, Landry Jones will start for the Steelers, which is obviously a big downgrade for the team across the board.
Will Fuller, HOU
Fuller’s hamstring injury was enough to limit him to emergency duty in Week 6. He was active, but he didn’t play. He has an extra day to get ready for Houston’s Monday night game in Denver, and it looks like he’s on track to be active and back in the starting lineup after going through multiple practices this week.
Unfortunately, Brock Osweiler isn’t playing well, and Fuller has a brutal matchup against the Broncos. It’s a good week to stay away from Fuller if you can and just hope Osweiler can get back to at least average QB play sometime soon.
Michael Thomas, NO
Did Thomas pass Willie Snead in fantasy value? Last week, he outsnapped Snead 77-70 percent and turned five targets into five receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. Snead had four receptions for 47 yards on seven targets. For the season, Thomas is second on the team in targets, receptions and yards and is tied for the lead with three TDs.
There might be a lot of mouths to feed in New Orleans, but Thomas has proven he should be one of the first in line. Consider him a WR3 with upside going forward and a better option than Snead.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Tyrell Williams, SD
Figuring out the Chargers WR corps hasn’t been easy for fantasy purposes. After just five receptions for 40 yards on eight targets in Week 4, Williams bounced back in a big way with 117 yards and a TD on five receptions (six targets) in Week 5. He didn’t keep it up in last week’s tough matchup with the Broncos, as he was limited to 28 yards on three receptions.
Williams is second in WR snaps to Dontrelle Inman, but Inman isn’t a major factor in the offense. Travis Benjamin is hanging around, but his numbers have fallen off, too. Williams is nothing more than a WR3/flex going forward, including this week at Atlanta.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Crowder is working his way into a more important role in the offense with Jordan Reed sidelined by a concussion. Last week, he caught three of four targets for 52 yards and his first score since Week 3.
Reed’s absence caused Crowder’s snaps to jump all the way to 77 percent, his highest snap percentage since 81 percent in Week 1. Crowder should stay in the mix no matter what happens with Reed, and he’s a good start against a Lions defense that had no answers for Kenny Britt in Week 6.
DeVante Parker, MIA
According to James Walker of ESPN, Dolphins offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said Parker’s been better in practice and expects that to translate to games soon. In five games, Parker has 20 receptions for 275 yards and a touchdown on 32 targets. He’s second on the team in targets, but he is way behind Jarvis Landry at 57 with 41 receptions for 494 yards and a TD.
Since Jay Ajayi is coming off a monster performance and the first real good one for the team’s backfield, might the Dolphins try to scale back Ryan Tannehill’s attempts? As of now, Parker isn’t anything more than a reach play in a good matchup, which won’t be the case this weekend against the Bills.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
Perriman’s busiest game of his career came last week against the Giants when he caught three of eight targets for 48 yards on 67 percent of the snaps. With Steve Smith (ankle) out and the change at offensive coordinator, Perriman’s role may continue to increase if the Ravens dial up their downfield passing game more often.
That doesn’t make Perriman a reliable fantasy option...at least not yet.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Sharpe continues to lead the Titans receiving corps in snaps, but his production is going in the wrong direction. Last week, he didn’t have a catch on any of his three targets despite Marcus Mariota throwing for a season-high 284 yards on 17-of-24 passing. Sharpe has no fantasy value.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Boyd’s coming off one of his better games with four receptions for 79 yards on five targets in a loss to the Patriots last week. He has just 19 receptions for 242 yards on 28 targets for the season and hasn’t established himself as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver. Boyd could take a backseat in the passing game to Tyler Eifert, who’s on track to make his season debut following ankle and back issues.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Agholor hasn’t had any fantasy value since Week 1, and that probably won’t be changing anytime soon. He’s averaging about three receptions and five targets per game despite playing at least 80 percent of the snaps in four of five games. Don’t be surprised to see Dorial Green-Beckham take on a bigger role soon with his snaps on the rise in every game, including 81 percent last week against the Redskins.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman could be close to a return. According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Coleman said he’d have an X-ray on his broken hand on Monday, October 24. If it goes well, he’ll be cleared. That would be a great boost to Cleveland’s offense and Coleman could turn into a solid fantasy contributor in the second half of the season.
Josh Doctson, WAS
Doctson had to sit out the last month and still hasn’t practiced due to ongoing problems with his Achilles. Head coach Jay Gruden said it was "safe to say" Doctson would be out through the Week 9 bye, according to Liz Clarke of The Washington Post. Gruden admitted the injured reserve is a possibility for the rookie WR. He doesn’t belong on redraft league rosters.
Devin Funchess, CAR
After getting blanked in Week 5, Funchess got back on the board in Week 6 against the Saints with two receptions for 28 yards and a TD on six targets. He now has two scores on seven receptions for the season. Don’t let the TDs fool you into thinking he’s worth anything for fantasy. He’s not.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell hasn’t recorded a target in any game. He’s buried on the depth chart and means nothing for fantasy.
Kevin White, CHI
White is eligible to return from the injured reserve in Week 13 and general manager Ryan Pace said in a pregame interview with Chicago Bears broadcaster Jeff Joniak that the team is "eyeballing" that week for White to play, per Adam Hoge of WGN Radio. White isn’t worth stashing, and the Bears could be way out of the playoff picture by that point.
Tight Ends
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Hunter Henry, SD
After six weeks, you could make the argument that Henry is not only better than Antonio Gates, but he’s also the best receiver in San Diego.
In Week 6, Henry’s snaps were down to 68 percent from 83 percent the week before, but he had the best game of his young career with six receptions for 83 yards and a score on eight targets. In that same game, Gates caught just two of six targets for 16 yards with his snaps jumping to 47 percent from 35 percent in Week 5.
With the clear trust of Philip Rivers and a need for the Chargers to have him on the field in a prominent role, Henry is now a must-start as one of the best fantasy tight ends in the league. He has a great matchup in Atlanta this weekend and could be one of the top options for Week 7.
Jesse James, PIT
James was starting to heat up coming into Week 6, but he, along with most of the Steelers, disappointed in a bad loss to the Miami Dolphins. James managed just two receptions for 13 yards on three targets. Losing Ben Roethlisberger to a knee injury won't help James' fantasy value.
However, his starting job doesn't seem to be in any kind of jeopardy since Ladarius Green said there's "no timetable" for his return to practice, according to Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Clive Walford, OAK
Walford returned to action in Week 6 after sitting out the previous week with a knee injury. He managed just two receptions for 25 yards on his only two targets. On the season, Walford has only 15 receptions for 150 yards and a score on 21 targets.
Derek Carr told Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle that Walford will "get more reps" because he’s healthy, which he sees leading to more opportunities.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper has had flashes so far but no consistent contributions. He was blanked for the second time this year last week and has just six receptions for 154 yards and a TD on six targets. It doesn’t help that he’s playing behind Jacob Tamme.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. Ownership percentages courtesy ESPN and Yahoo.
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