Fantasy Football Week 7: Matt Camp's Week 7 Preview
As you manage your fantasy football team throughout the NFL season, what you have to understand is that this is a week-to-week league. Finding a superstar on the waiver wire isn’t the norm—it’s the exception. For the most part, you’re trying to find the newest flavor and hope you can squeeze as much production out of him for as long as possible.
I bring that up because the top waiver add for many this week will be Jay Ajayi. After toiling in a backfield that used up to four running backs in a single game multiple times, the Dolphins may have finally figured out that Ajayi is their best option. Does that mean he’ll run for 200-plus yards every week? Of course not, but he definitely deserves the chance to lead the way until further notice.
That could be for two weeks, a month or the rest of the season. Many of you have asked me if Ajayi will lead the way and if he can be a reliable RB2. I’d like to say yes to both those questions based on what we’ve seen from Ajayi not just in Week 6, but also in the last few weeks since he’s clearly been their best back.
At the same time, I fall back on my philosophy that you can’t assume the RB2 spot in your lineup will be the same player every week. The position is way too volatile, and with injuries and splintered touches in each backfield, a lot can change in a short period of time. Ajayi busting out in the week Arian Foster returned is a great example of that.
Just know that if you pick up Ajayi, you should be right back to working the waiver wire next week regardless of how he performs in Week 7. If you don’t stay active in your roster management, you will lose.
Quarterbacks
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Waiver Wire
Marcus Mariota, TEN
Percent Owned: ESPN — 41, Yahoo — 60
Mike Mularkey can name his offense whatever he wants, but if he doesn’t let his quarterback play to the best of his abilities, the Titans aren’t going anywhere. After four weeks of uninspired play, Tennessee let Mariota start running, and wouldn’t you know it, he became a dangerous QB.
Over the last two weeks, Mariota has 14 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown. Whether it’s better game-planning, Mariota improving his play or both, his passing numbers look a lot better, too. In wins over the Dolphins and Browns, he completed 37 of 53 attempts for 447 yards with six TDs and just one interception.
Mariota continues the softer part of his schedule against the Colts on Sunday. They allowed an average of more than 300 yards per game to QBs this season and just gave up 269 yards and two TDs to Brock Osweiler in their Week 6 loss to the Texans. After the Colts, the Titans face the Jaguars, Chargers, Packers, Colts again and Bears before their Week 13 bye, so Mariota may be more than just a short-term streamer.
Week 7 Projection: 255-265 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 45 rushing yards
Joe Flacco, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN - 34.2, Yahoo - 29
You don’t have to be the biggest believer in Flacco to consider him for Week 7 against the Jets. They’ve gone from a defense you’d avoid in fantasy to one you want to go after, especially when it comes to defending the pass. Even with Carson Palmer throwing for just 213 yards and one touchdown in Week 6, New York is giving up an average of 304 yards and more than two TDs per game to QBs.
In the first game under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, Flacco completed just 26 of 48 attempts for 307 yards without a TD or interception against the Giants. The volume of pass attempts is good to see (264 in six games), so hopefully that keeps up—and why wouldn’t it against a bad pass defense? Getting Steve Smith (ankle) back this week would be a nice boost, too.
Week 7 Projection: 280-290 passing yards, 2 touchdowns
Alex Smith, KC
Percent Owned: ESPN - 37, Yahoo - 28
Last week’s matchup against the Raiders set up well for Smith and the Chiefs passing attack, but it also set up well for the Chiefs rushing attack, especially in the rain and mud in Oakland. As a result, Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles combined for 33 carries, 164 yards and two touchdowns, while Smith completed 19 of 22 attempts for 224 yards without a TD.
Could the Chiefs do more of the same at home against the Saints in Week 7? Yes, but it might be hard to dial back the passing offense for yet another week against a beatable defense. New Orleans allowed 314 yards per game to QBs in their first five games. Last week, the Chiefs didn’t need to throw much because the Raiders couldn’t get their offense going. The Saints may not have as much trouble, giving Smith more reason to chuck it.
Week 7 Projection: 260-270 passing yards, 2 touchdowns
The Matchup Men
As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players who are helped or hurt by their matchups. I’ll provide additional analysis and projections in Wednesday’s Big Board.
Matchup Bumps
Kirk Cousins, WAS (at DET)
Joe Flacco, BAL (at NYJ)
Philip Rivers, SD (at ATL)
Andy Dalton, CIN (vs. CLE)
Alex Smith, KC (vs. NO)
Marcus Mariota, TEN (vs. IND)
Matt Ryan, ATL (vs. SD)
Matchup Concerns
Sam Bradford, MIN (at PHI)
Carson Wentz, PHI (vs. MIN)
Ryan Tannehill, MIA (vs. BUF)
Carson Palmer, ARI (vs. SEA)
Brock Osweiler, HOU (at DEN)
Running Backs
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Waiver Wire
Jay Ajayi, MIA
Percent Owned: ESPN - 42.5, Yahoo - 31
The Dolphins may have finally figured out their backfield, and it only took six weeks! Even though Arian Foster was active for the first time since Week 2, it was all about Ajayi against the Steelers, as he delivered 204 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 25 carries. His 62-yard TD late in the game was a huge boost, but by that point, he’d already had a good game.
According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, head coach Adam Gase said Foster “is not 100 percent” in his return from groin and hamstring injuries but still brings something to the table.
Foster brought just three carries for three yards and two receptions for 12 yards on two targets in Week 6. Damien Williams wasn’t much better with 12 yards on six carries and two receptions for five yards. Ajayi played 69 percent of the snaps, while Foster was at 16 percent and Williams was at 17 percent.
If the Dolphins are smart, they’ll stick with Ajayi as their lead back and not worry about getting others involved nearly as much unless he can’t handle the bigger workload. Asking him to carry the ball 15 times and handle a few targets shouldn’t be too bad and would likely make him a nice RB2. He won’t have it easy against the Bills on Sunday.
Week 7 Projection: 15 carries, 63 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards
James White, NE
Percent Owned: ESPN - 49.3, Yahoo - 57
Many are asking about the best time to stash Dion Lewis. If you’ve done that already or want to do that this week, go ahead if you have the room to spare. Lewis is eligible to return in Week 7, but because the Patriots keep such information close to the vest, we may not know when Lewis will be back until he actually practices and plays.
The air of mystery surrounding Lewis’ return and value was only compounded by how White performed in Week 6 against the Bengals. For the second straight week, White played more snaps than LeGarrette Blount and was more productive than him, too. This past Sunday, White caught eight of nine targets for 47 yards and two scores. He added seven carries for 19 yards.
While White is a very good receiver, the biggest difference between him and Lewis is how productive they’ve been running the football. White’s averaging 3.8 yards per carry, whereas Lewis averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year in seven games. If you need immediate help, turn to White. If you’re thinking more down the line, grab Lewis.
Week 7 Projection: 6 receptions, 44 receiving yards, 4 carries, 16 rushing yards
Devontae Booker, DEN
Percent Owned: ESPN - 29.9, Yahoo - 27
Before I jump into this, let me say that Booker probably isn’t a must-own unless you already have C.J. Anderson and want to handcuff him or you’re in a deeper league.
Booker ran five times for 46 yards and caught both of his targets for seven yards in a tough loss to the Chargers. He played just 21 percent of the snaps compared to 78 percent for Anderson. A big part of the excitement for Booker was the snap count in Week 5, which favored Anderson, but not by much at 51 percent to Booker’s 41 percent.
I believe the uptick in snaps for Booker in Week 5 may have had something to do with the team playing two games in five days. Booker ended up with one fewer carry and four fewer targets in Week 6 compared to Week 5. He’s been good in short bursts, but it’s not like Anderson is finished. Penalties killed what should have been a much better game for Anderson against the Chargers.
Because the Broncos rely so heavily on the run with a shaky QB situation, Booker could have big value if Anderson were to go down, but for now he’s a backup without enough touches to play with confidence. Any rise in touches would boost his fantasy value.
Week 7 Projection: 5 carries, 20 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 20 receiving yards
Jacquizz Rodgers, TB
Percent Owned: ESPN - 29.9, Yahoo - 22
Coming out of the bye, the Buccaneers hope to get Doug Martin back from the hamstring issue that cost him the last three games. Although unofficial, Martin didn’t practice Monday, according to Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times. If he’s not out there for the first official practice of the week on Wednesday, it’s time to start worrying.
If Rodgers is available in your league, you may want to grab him, especially if you need insurance for Martin. Back in Week 5, the Buccaneers turned to Rodgers with Martin out and Charles Sims on injured reserve. Rodgers came through with 101 yards on 30 carries and five receptions for 28 yards on six targets.
If need be, Rodgers would lead the way for the Buccaneers again this week in a great matchup with the 49ers. If Martin can’t go, Rodgers would likely be a solid RB2.
Week 7 Projection: To be determined based on Martin’s status
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Spencer Ware/Jamaal Charles, KC (vs. NO)
DeMarco Murray, TEN (vs. IND)
Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman, ATL (vs. SD)
James White/LeGarrette Blount, NE (at PIT)
Melvin Gordon, SD (at ATL)
Giovani Bernard, CIN (vs. CLE)
Matt Jones, WAS (at DET)
Matchup Concerns
Jordan Howard, CHI (at GB)
Matt Forte, NYJ (vs. BAL)
Frank Gore, IND (at TEN)
Ryan Mathews, PHI (vs. MIN)
Christine Michael, SEA (at ARI)
Wide Receivers
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Waiver Wire
Cameron Meredith, CHI
Percent Owned: ESPN - 32.2, Yahoo - 51
I’m a little surprised Meredith is still so available in most leagues, although that won’t last much longer. He followed up the nine receptions for 130 yards and touchdown in Week 5 with 11 receptions for 113 yards on 15 targets in Week 6 against the Jaguars.
Alshon Jeffery hasn’t disappeared, but in his last two games, he has 19 targets, 12 receptions and 170 yards. That’s not bad, but Meredith has clearly stepped into Kevin White’s entire role, including the starting gig and the team-lead in targets, at least in the last two games.
If you’re not a believer in Meredith yet, you’ll be left behind. He has a great matchup with the worst defense against fantasy WRs in the Packers on Thursday, so keep playing him with confidence or snatch him up and move him right into your lineup.
Week 7 Projection: 8 receptions, 94 yards
Kenny Britt, LA
Percent Owned: ESPN - 13.1, Yahoo - 10
The calendar does say October 2016, but here we are talking about the consistency of Kenny Britt and the somewhat unexpected breakout game he had against the Lions in Week 6.
Because Britt has been solid all season, he wasn’t a bad play against a poor Detroit defense, but he ended up being a lot more than not bad. He racked up 136 yards and two scores on seven receptions (eight targets). Britt has at least six targets in all but one game and is averaging five catches and 82 yards per game over the first six weeks. Someone has to catch passes for the Rams, and no one’s been better than Britt.
Week 7 Projection: 6 receptions, 85 yards
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Percent Owned: ESPN - 35.6, Yahoo - 29
This isn’t Crowder’s first appearance in my top waiver adds, but he’s starting to work his way back into a bigger role after disappointing with just five receptions for 56 yards on six targets in Weeks 4-5. Last week, he caught three of four targets for 52 yards and his first score since Week 3.
The absence of Jordan Reed (concussion) led to an uptick in Crowder’s snaps all the way to 77 percent, his highest snap percentage since 81 percent in Week 1. Crowder deserves to stay in the mix no matter what happens with Reed, although Reed’s return can’t be assumed due to his concussion history. With or without Reed, Crowder is a good start against a Lions defense that had no answers for Kenny Britt in Week 6.
Week 7 Projection: 4 receptions, 61 yards
Ty Montgomery, GB
Percent Owned: ESPN - .2, Yahoo - 1
With James Starks (knee) out of action and no one else to turn to with confidence behind Eddie Lacy, the Packers had to squeeze a little more out of their receiving corps and did so with Montgomery in Week 6.
He had three carries for six yards but made his biggest impact with 10 receptions for 98 yards on 12 targets in the loss to the Cowboys. He led the team in targets, receptions and yards, and that didn’t go unnoticed by head coach Mike McCarthy. According to Wes Hodkiewicz of Packers.com, McCarthy said Montgomery “did a lot of good things.”
With the Packers on a short week hosting the Bears on Thursday night, Montgomery has a good chance to stay involved and why wouldn’t he? He was a bright spot for an offense looking for answers.
Week 7 Projection: 5 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 2 carries, 10 rushing yards
Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
Percent Owned: ESPN - .9, Yahoo - 1
The Vikings didn’t have Stefon Diggs (groin) in Week 5, so they pumped up Adam Thielen’s snaps to 92 percent. He rewarded them by hauling in seven of eight targets for 127 yards and a touchdown. Patterson also chipped in with four receptions for 39 yards and a score on six targets plus a carry for seven yards. The Vikings didn’t miss a beat without Diggs.
Patterson could be a solid option for the rest of the season because he’s such a unique player in that he’s not a typical receiver and can be used in many ways. Patterson’s value started to increase in Week 4 when his snaps jumped from single-digits to 49 percent and then up again to 61 percent in Week 5 before the bye.
Assuming Diggs is back from his groin injury in Week 7, Thielen should return to his complementary role, which saw him catch no more than four balls or receive more than five targets in the team’s first four games. Patterson has a better chance of staying involved regardless of who’s around him because he’s unique.
Week 7 Projection: 5 receptions, 49 receiving yards, 2 carries, 11 rushing yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Alshon Jeffery/Cameron Meredith, CHI (at GB)
Allen Robinson, JAC (vs. OAK)
Brandon Marshall, NYJ (vs. BAL)
DeSean Jackson/Jamison Crowder, WAS (at DET)
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (at LA)
Robert Woods, BUF (at MIA)
Jeremy Maclin, KC (vs. NO)
Matchup Concerns
DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller, HOU (at DEN)
Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (vs. HOU)
Jordan Matthews, PHI (vs. MIN)
Stefon Diggs, MIN (at PHI)
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (vs. SEA)
Doug Baldwin, SEA (at ARI)
Tight Ends
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Waiver Wire
Hunter Henry, SD
Percent Owned: ESPN - 49.3, Yahoo - 35
Henry is laughing at the idea of rookie tight ends being useless, and he’s doing that while also taking over for Antonio Gates as the top tight end in San Diego.
Gates missed two games with a hamstring injury before returning in Week 5 against the Raiders. He was limited, as expected, and saw just 35 percent of the snaps, although he still had receptions on four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. In the same game, Henry had another nice fantasy performance with three receptions for 74 yards and a TD on four targets with 83 percent of the snaps.
In Week 6, Gates caught just two of six targets for 16 yards, but his snaps were up to 47 percent. That knocked Henry’s snaps down to 68 percent, but he had his best game of the season with six receptions for 83 yards and a TD on eight targets in a win over a tough Broncos defense.
It’s hard to deny that Henry is not only the top TE in San Diego, but the most talented receiver on the team. He’s had double-digit fantasy points in his last four games and that, along with his talent and upside, make him a good TE1 in the fantasy world with a glorious matchup against the Falcons coming up in Week 7.
Week 7 Projection: 6 receptions, 77 yards, 1 touchdown
Charles Clay, BUF
Percent Owned: ESPN - 24.6, Yahoo - 24
Clay doesn’t have nearly the upside of Henry, but if you’re looking for boring and reliable, he can do that if you’re searching for a TE to plug into your starting lineup.
For the third straight game, all of which were without Sammy Watkins, Clay posted five receptions and came though with yet another double-digit fantasy points performance in Week 6. Clay caught five of seven targets for 52 yards in a dominant win over the 49ers, although he did have to leave the game with an ankle injury.
Assuming the injury isn’t anything major, Clay is worth grabbing if you’re shooting for 10 points in a points-per-reception format. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins in Week 7.
Week 7 Projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Hunter Henry, SD (at ATL)
Julius Thomas, JAC (vs. OAK)
Gary Barnidge, CLE (at CIN)
Dennis Pitta, BAL (at NYJ)
Zach Miller, CHI (at GB)
Cameron Brate, TB (at SF)
Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett, NE (at PIT)
Matchup Concerns
Kyle Rudolph, MIN (at PHI)
Jimmy Graham, SEA (at ARI)
Coby Fleener, NO (at KC)
Defenses
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This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups. It’s another rough week since a lot of widely owned defenses have the best matchups.
Baltimore Ravens
Percent Owned: ESPN - 46.5, Yahoo - 33
It’s another terrible week to grab a good defense, so if you’re sticking with the matchups, you have to check out the Ravens. They have the chance to take on a Jets offense that’s in shambles following another ugly loss in Week 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 11 interceptions in the first five weeks and will keep the starting job despite Geno Smith relieving him in Monday’s loss to the Cardinals.
As a fantasy defense, the Ravens haven’t been bad with 11 sacks, eight interceptions and just 115 points allowed over the first six weeks. That makes them a top-12 unit on the season, so you’d probably consider using them in a decent matchup, but taking on the Jets is much better than decent.
Week 7 Projection: 2 interceptions, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 14-17 points allowed
Kickers
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During the season, the kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points forecasted will be featured in this section.
Matt Bryant, ATL
Percent Owned: ESPN - 43.4, Yahoo - 38
Perfection is good, right? Bryant made all of his league-leading 21 extra points and hasn’t missed on any of his 12 field-goal attempts. Do you really need more reasons to add Bryant? He’s a top-three fantasy kicker through the first six weeks and should keep it up in one of the best offenses in the league. Kicking indoors for more than half the season helps, too.
Camp's Corner
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Even though we have a pretty good idea of what teams are and what they aren’t after six weeks, it doesn’t mean you stop assessing on a regular basis.
If you gave up on Golden Tate after five weeks, you were totally justified in doing so since he had a grand total of 17 receptions for 134 yards on 31 targets. That’s nowhere near what you drafted him to be and not useful enough to put in your lineup.
So of course Tate blows up in Week 6 with eight receptions for 165 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets in the same week both Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron are sidelined by injuries. Coincidence? Probably not, but those absences didn’t magically boost Tate back into relevance. He still had to perform, and he did at a high level. He’s back on the fantasy radar.
I hate totally closing the door on any player, especially those who performed well in the not-so-distant past. Should adjustments be made to expectations if they don’t live up to them? Of course, and for Tate, that meant taking him out of your lineup or even cutting him loose if you needed the roster spot.
For players like Tate, you must keep an open mind. He might need to show more than one week of production to jump back onto your roster or into your starting lineup once again, but at least you know he’s still capable of being productive at a high level. Don’t let the emotion of getting burned by a player hinder your decision-making if they bounce back. Stubbornness can ruin your fantasy football team.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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