Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 6 Futures Report
When I cover the NFL draft, the excitement peaks on the first day and only diminishes as we get through the third day. However, I tell fantasy football players to pay attention to the entire draft, because there’s a good chance you’ll be asking about the fantasy value of a running back taken on Day Three who’s already moved up his team’s depth chart because of injuries.
The surprising contributors, like Hunter Henry of the Chargers, have come from multiple positions and all over the draft. Henry was an earlier pick at No. 35 overall, but Dak Prescott didn’t come off the board until the fourth round at 135 overall.
You need to pay attention to the entire draft and the undrafted free-agent signings that come in the following days. Potentially key fantasy pieces, especially at running back, may come out of any round.
I’ll take an in-depth look at those rookies and second-year players making an impact on fantasy rosters, or those who could have value down the road. But first, you’ll get four players who could be sitting on your waiver wire right now. Last week, I included Cordarrelle Patterson and Jalen Richard. This week, the group seems to be more talented, although the path to playing time isn’t clear.
Under-the-Radar Waiver-Wire Adds
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Because it’s late in the week, you’re probably looking at slim pickings on the waiver wire. I already covered the top adds earlier in the week, but with the news and injury information we’ve received since, here are a few useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
Percent Owned: ESPN—52.9, Yahoo—57.0
My usual cutoff for waiver adds is 60 percent ownership, so I was surprised to see Lockett actually qualify as eligible. That shows how many decided to cut bait with Lockett after a slow start to the season, which led into the team’s Week 5 bye. I understand the frustration considering Lockett has just eight receptions for 129 yards on 15 targets, most of which came in Week 2 (four receptions, 99 yards).
With a week off to rest the sprained knee he suffered back in Week 2, Lockett has a chance to restart his season against the Falcons this weekend. According to Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com, head coach Pete Carroll said Lockett was limited by the injury in the two games before the bye, but a bigger role could be in store for Sunday.
Typically, I’d wait a week to see how Lockett looks, but this week’s matchup is too good to pass up. The Falcons gave up the 11th-most fantasy points to WRs over the first five weeks of the season, including seven touchdowns. He’s a deep reach with a weak 2016 resume, but if you’re looking for some upside, Lockett might be your guy.
Kamar Aiken, WR, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—6.7, Yahoo—17.0
Aiken finished last season as the top receiver in Baltimore, mostly because he was one of the last men standing following a myriad of injuries. With Steve Smith coming into the season healthy, the addition of Mike Wallace and the return/debut of Breshad Perriman, Aiken became an afterthought once again with just six receptions for 28 yards on 11 targets in the first five weeks.
Try to remember what Aiken was last year because he might be called on to play a bigger role this week against the Giants. Smith didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 5. Wallace has battled a chest issue that limited him early in the week, but saw him return to full practice on Thursday. Still, an absence from Smith would leave a big hole in the offense, and Aiken might be the best fit to replace Smith working out of the slot.
I don’t expect Aiken to have any real value after this week, so you’re looking to take advantage of this week’s matchup against the Giants, assuming Smith can’t play and is inactive. The Giants gave up the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs in their first five games. If you’re stuck, Aiken is a legit sleeper if Smith is out of the lineup.
Justin Forsett, RB, DET
Percent Owned: ESPN—27, Yahoo—22
Earlier this week, the Lions signed Forsett to provide some veteran presence to a young and banged-up backfield. Ameer Abdullah (foot) is on injured reserve, Theo Riddick missed practice time this week with an ankle injury and Dwayne Washington (ankle) may not be ready to return to action after sitting out Week 5.
Initially, I didn’t think much of Forsett for fantasy since it looked like he’d just be another body in an already crowded backfield, but he may be pressed into action less than a week after signing if Riddick and/or Washington has to sit out.
The Rams have been average against fantasy RBs this season, but they’ve allowed 4.4 yards per carry and just under five receptions per game to the position. Forsett could step in for either player, although his best-case scenario for fantasy is to lead the way with Riddick and Washington both inactive.
Eli Rogers, WR, PIT
Percent Owned: ESPN—1.1, Yahoo—9.0
Rogers sat out the last two weeks with turf toe, but is primed to return to action in Week 6 thanks to a week of full practices. Might Rogers be coming back at a perfect time for the Steelers?
Sammie Coates had the best game of his career last week, but he is in danger of sitting out Sunday due to a laceration on his finger that’s kept him out of practice this week. The shoulder injury that cost Markus Wheaton the first two games of the season looks like it’s a problem once again, with Wheaton missing the first two practices of this week.
If the Steelers are without Coates and Wheaton, Rogers could be the No. 2 WR behind Antonio Brown in a great matchup against the Dolphins. Over the first five weeks, WRs have posted the fourth-most fantasy points when they face Miami. Ben Roethlisberger threw it 47 times in a convincing win over the Jets last week and averages more than 38 attempts per game.
Rogers could have top-30 value if both Coates and Wheaton are out. If he’s needed with just one of them taking the field, Rogers is an OK flex option.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Carson Wentz, PHI
Wentz hit his first speed bump last week against the Lions, and the Eagles lost their first game of the season. Thanks to some early scores by the Lions, Wentz and the offense played from behind, which was another first for the rookie. He still handled himself well enough to complete 25 of 33 attempts for two touchdowns and a game-clinching interception for the Lions on an ill-advised heave down the field.
It looks like Wentz will have a general classification of a high-end QB2 for the season, although in the more favorable matchups, he’ll move into the QB1 conversation. That includes this week against the Redskins, who have allowed an average of 275 passing yards per game.
One concern for Wentz is the loss of right tackle Lane Johnson due to a 10-game suspension and a subsequent lost appeal. Johnson’s absence is a big one, so hopefully Wentz is able to work around it.
Dak Prescott, DAL
The Cowboys moved to 4-1 under Prescott after beating the Bengals at AT&T Stadium. With Ezekiel Elliott running over the Bengals for 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns, Prescott didn’t have to do much. He tied a season-low with 24 attempts, completing 18 of those for 227 yards with a TD. He’s yet to throw an interception, but did add his third rushing TD of the season.
The bigger news related to Prescott came off the field and relates to his long-term security as the starter. According to Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, Tony Romo’s back is healed, so rehab is next. However, a timetable for return is still up in the air, per head coach Jason Garrett. It’s not a situation the Cowboys have to address yet, but when Romo is cleared to play, will he start, or does Prescott keep the job?
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
It hasn’t been a strong couple of weeks for the Broncos quarterbacks. Lynch started in place of Siemian (shoulder) in Week 5 but struggled throughout in the loss to the Falcons. He hit 23 of 35 attempts for 223 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
The Broncos got Siemian back for their Week 6 Thursday night matchup in San Diego, and the result was another loss in an ugly performance by the second-year QB. Siemian completed just 30 of 50 attempts for 230 yards with a fourth-quarter TD.
Because Lynch looked lost in his start and not ready to take over the starting gig anytime soon, Siemian’s leash should be a little longer, even after the way he played in Week 6. Hopefully, this QB situation doesn’t hurt the fantasy value of the other key players in Denver’s offense.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
None of note.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff is the primary backup to Case Keenum and the Rams sit at 3-2, so unless there’s a major shift or an injury, Goff isn’t coming off the sidelines.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
Garoppolo watched Tom Brady from the sidelines for most of Week 5, but after Brady threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns, the Patriots put their second-year QB in the game to wrap the victory up over the Browns. Barring an injury to Brady, that’s the extent of Garoppolo’s role in the offense.
Running Backs
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Jordan Howard, CHI
Another start for Howard gave us another strong effort, as he continues to make Jeremy Langford look obsolete to fantasy owners. With a favorable matchup against the Colts in Week 5, Howard rushed for 118 yards on 16 carries and added 45 yards and a touchdown with three receptions on three targets.
Howard’s just outside the top 15 rushers with 296 yards on 51 carries, but he’s tied for the league lead at 5.8 yards per carry (minimum 30 carries). He’s pushed himself into the RB1 conversation with his play and lack of competition on Chicago’s roster. Howard has played 126 of a potential 135 snaps in the last two weeks. Joique Bell and Ka’Deem Carey combined for eight snaps in the same span.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
The confusion in Oakland’s backfield didn’t clear up in Week 5 despite the turf toe injury that kept Latavius Murray on the sidelines. Washington led the way with 51 percent of the snaps compared to 32 percent for Richard. However, that didn’t tell the whole story.
Richard took eight carries for 31 yards, while Washington ran nine times for 23 yards. Richard also outgained Washington in the passing game by hauling in six of seven targets for 66 yards. Washington had five receptions for 29 yards on six targets. Of course, fullback Jamize Olawale was the only one to find the end zone for a rushing TD.
Murray hasn’t practiced this week and could be on his way to another game on the sidelines. While Richard was more efficient, it’s not like he dominated the stats over Washington. Oakland will continue to use multiple backs and probably keep us guessing as to which one to use on a weekly basis, including this week against the Chiefs.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Dixon made his NFL debut in Week 5 against the Redskins, but was limited to just 6 percent of the snaps with three rushes for negative-one yard and a reception for six yards. It wasn’t a surprise to see Terrance West lead the way with 11 carries for 95 yards and two catches on three targets for negative-six yards while playing 42 percent of the snaps.
While West should have touched the ball more, he did well with his carries and should get another chance to lead this backfield against the Giants on Sunday. If you stashed Dixon away hoping he’d be making big contributions, it may take a little longer. The Ravens may have fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman earlier this week, but they shouldn’t make a change at RB if West is playing well.
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
Artis-Payne had his busiest and best performance of the season in Carolina’s Week 5 loss to the Buccaneers, but will it continue?
He out-snapped Fozzy Whittaker for the first time with 63 percent of the snaps to Whittaker’s 35 percent. Artis-Payne had a season-high 18 carries for 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Whittaker carried just five times, but still racked up 45 yards and caught his only target for nine yards.
With Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) likely back this week, Whittaker could keep an active role as a receiver, whereas Artis-Payne might return to an almost nonexistent role on offense.
Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake, MIA
Ajayi’s taken the lead in Miami’s backfield, but for how long? In Week 5, he played a season-high 68 percent of the snaps with Drake limited to just 16 percent. Ajayi’s lead in playing time matched his production with 13 carries for 42 yards and a TD. Drake caught two of three targets for 16 yards and rushed twice for four yards.
Arian Foster has gone through limited practice this week in his effort to return from hamstring and groin issues. Upon his return, this backfield will likely get crowded and ugly for fantasy once again.
Devontae Booker, DEN
Booker’s snaps had been on the rise each week over the first five games, with the percentage rising to 41 compared to C.J. Anderson’s 51 percent in Week 5. Many of you asked me about Booker being a legitimate threat to Anderson because of the rise in snaps. So is he?
My assumption was that the Broncos decided to get Booker more involved in Week 5 knowing they had to play again in four days, so why not try to keep Anderson fresher if possible. That theory looks like it held some weight since Booker’s snaps dropped to 21 percent and Anderson jumped back up to 78 percent in Week 6.
On the season, Booker has 34 carries for 161 yards (4.7 yards per carry) and eight receptions for 65 yards on 11 targets. By comparison, Anderson has 16 catches for 128 yards and a TD on 24 targets and 330 yards and 3 TDs on 94 carries (3.5 yards per carry).
For now, Booker is just a handcuff to Anderson and would be a risky play as anything other than a last-ditch flex option. However, if you have Anderson, you should own Booker for protection.
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington sprained both his foot and his ankle in the Week 4 loss to the Bears, so he had to sit out Week 5 and could be out for Week 6. The Lions added veteran RB Justin Forsett earlier this week, and that could put a damper on Washington’s fantasy value once he’s healthy enough to contribute.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Rob Kelley, WAS
Kelley hasn’t had many chances this season, but that could be changing if you ask head coach Jay Gruden. According to JP Finlay of CSN Mid-Atlantic, Gruden said we could “see more” of Kelley because he’s deserving of some carries in an effort to keep both him and Matt Jones fresh.
In Week 5, Kelley carried three times for 18 yards. On the season, he has just eight carries for 29 yards and no receptions. This could be more of a headache than a help for fantasy, especially if Kelley’s role isn’t big enough to consider him for fantasy but is still big enough to hurt Jones’ value.
Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Sammie Coates, PIT
Coates blew up in Week 5 with six receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets. He could have had at least one more TD, but dropped a short pass that hit him in the hands with no one even close to him. While he needs to improve on those drops, he should do more than enough to make up for it with big plays. Coates had a 72-yard TD in that win over the Jets and now has a catch of at least 41 yards in every game this season.
The Steelers used Coates as a downfield threat, but also near the line of scrimmage, which is how he scored his second TD. Finding different ways to get Coates involved other than just being the designated deep threat shows the team wants to get more out of the second-year WR, and it may be time to show that off more often.
Unfortunately, Coates suffered a laceration on one of his fingers in Week 5, and even though he played through it, he’s missed practice time this week and isn't a lock to play. With both Coates and Markus Wheaton (shoulder) up in the air for Week 6, Eli Rogers could return from a turf toe injury to play a big role in a great matchup with the Dolphins.
Will Fuller, HOU
Fuller has been able to overcome the shaky play of Brock Osweiler this season, but that struggle hit him hard in Week 5. Already with a tough matchup against the Vikings, Osweiler did Fuller no favors, as the rookie WR caught just one of six targets for four yards. The Texans got a late score from DeAndre Hopkins to help salvage his day, but the same couldn’t be said for Fuller.
For the season, Fuller has 20 receptions for 327 yards and a pair of TDs on 40 targets, which shows both the issues with Osweiler and Fuller’s own problems with drops. Houston should be able to get back on track with a nice matchup against the Colts this weekend.
Michael Thomas, NO
In the Week 4 matchup before the Saints’ bye, Thomas managed to come through with four receptions for 44 yards and a TD on nine targets against the Chargers. Willie Snead returned from his toe injury and caught his only target for 23 yards. Snead was limited to 68 percent of the snaps while Thomas led all Saints receivers at 76 percent.
Thomas leads the team in receptions (21) and is second in targets (31) to Brandin Cooks (32). Staying involved in an offense that’s already had 11 different players catch a pass isn’t easy, and Thomas and Snead could cut into each other’s targets on a weekly basis, which makes it tough to trust either of them as anything more than a WR3.
DeVante Parker, MIA
Parker’s slowed down in a hurry after a strong start to the season. In the Week 5 loss to the Titans, Parker caught two of three targets for 70 yards. He now has four receptions for 90 yards on six targets in the last two weeks. The problem might have something to do with the struggles of Ryan Tannehill and the general malaise over Miami’s offense.
If Miami needs to throw to hang with the Steelers this weekend, hopefully there’s some garbage-time production with Parker’s name written on it.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Tyrell Williams, SD
Figuring out the Chargers WR corps hasn’t been easy for fantasy players. After just five receptions for 40 yards on eight targets in Week 4, Williams bounced back in a big way with 117 yards and a TD on five receptions (six targets) in Week 5. He didn’t keep it up in Week 6 in a tough matchup with the Broncos. Williams was limited to 28 yards on three receptions.
Williams is second in WR snaps to Dontrelle Inman, but Inman doesn’t seem to be a major factor in the offense. Travis Benjamin is hanging around, but his numbers have fallen off, too. Williams is nothing more than a WR3/flex going forward.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
In the first three games of the season, Crowder posted 16 receptions for 175 yards and two TDs on 25 targets. Since then, he has just five receptions for 56 yards on six targets.
Washington’s offense has an up-and-down nature, which starts with Kirk Cousins. However, Crowder’s role in the offense could see an uptick if Jordan Reed misses extended time because of a concussion.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
Could Perriman be in for a bigger role as soon as this week? Well, in Week 5, he played a season-high 50 percent of the snaps, which was partially related to Steve Smith going down with an ankle injury. Perriman might have played more, but he had just two catches for 11 yards on five targets. He actually had a TD reversed by replay late in the game.
Smith’s status for Week 6 doesn’t look promising after he missed two days of practice, but Mike Wallace (chest) got back to full practice on Thursday and should be good to go. Perriman might play more against the Giants, but look for veteran Kamar Aiken to take on more of Smith’s role, specifically in the slot.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Sharpe’s slip out of fantasy relevance is getting tough to watch. Last week, the Titans had their best offensive output with a three-TD game from Marcus Mariota. Unfortunately for Sharpe, those TD passes went to Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews and Andre Johnson while Sharpe finished with just two receptions for 17 yards on four targets.
He still leads all Titans receivers in snaps, but that’s not translating to fantasy production. You don’t need to keep Sharpe on your fantasy rosters.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Boyd can’t seem to find a regular role in the Bengals offense. He grabbed three of five targets for 33 yards in Week 5 and has just 15 receptions for 163 yards on 23 targets in the first five weeks. Even though TE Tyler Eifert (ankle, back) isn’t back yet, Boyd is failing to take advantage of such a big absence. He doesn’t belong on fantasy rosters.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Agholor has just 13 receptions for 147 yards and a TD on the season. In a favorable matchup against the Lions in Week 5, he managed just two receptions for 27 yards on seven targets and had a carry for five yards. He has no fantasy value.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman is recovering from the broken hand he suffered before Week 3, but when he returns in the next month or so, he should step back into a big role since the only other option in the wide receiver corps is Terrelle Pryor.
Josh Doctson, WAS
Doctson had to sit out the last three games and still hasn’t practiced due to ongoing problems with his Achilles. He doesn’t belong on redraft league rosters.
Devin Funchess, CAR
Funchess didn’t have a target in Week 5 despite a great matchup against the Buccaneers. Through five games, he has just five receptions for 84 yards and a TD on 13 targets. It’s just not happening for Funchess.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell hasn’t recorded a target in five games. He’s buried on the depth chart and means nothing for fantasy.
Kevin White, CHI
According to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune, White will likely undergo surgery “in the very near future” to fix the spiral fracture of his fibula. There’s still hope he can return before the end of the season, but that’s far from a lock to happen. So far, White has been a major bust as a 2015 first-round pick.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
Hunter Henry, SD
Not only is Henry bucking the trend of unreliable rookie tight ends, he’s also supplanting Antonio Gates as the top tight end in San Diego.
Gates returned to action in Week 5 after missing two games with a hamstring injury. It wasn’t a surprise to see him play just 35 percent of the snaps, although he still managed to snag four of five targets for 30 yards and a score. In Week 6, he caught just two of six targets for 16 yards with his snaps jumping to 47 percent.
Meanwhile, Henry’s dominance continued in Week 5 with three receptions for 74 yards and a TD on four targets with 83 percent of the snaps. In Week 6, his snaps were down to 68 percent, but he had the best game of his young career with six receptions for 83 yards and a score on eight targets.
Henry looks like the top receiver in San Diego and a dangerous TE1 for fantasy. So much for rookie TEs not contributing.
Jesse James, PIT
James might be the next Heath Miller—or at least that’s what the Steelers are hoping—and the numbers are starting to back that up. James had his best game of the season in Week 5 with six receptions for 43 yards and a score on eight targets. It was his second straight game with a score and his third TD of the season.
In five games, James has caught 18 of 26 targets for 128 yards and three TDs. With a bunch of other great weapons in the offense, James has done a good job carving out a role for himself in the red zone. He has five targets in the red zone, and all of his TDs have come inside the 10-yard line.
However, James’ role could be in jeopardy with Ladarius Green planning his return to practice next week, according to Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Green went on the physically unable to perform list with an ankle issue at the start of training camp.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Clive Walford, OAK
A knee injury put Walford on the inactive list for Week 5, and his status is up in the air for Week 6 after going through some limited practices. With just 13 receptions for 125 yards and a TD on 19 targets, he doesn’t have any real value.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper’s shown flashes as a rookie, but can’t seem to find any consistency. After catching his only target for a 42-yard TD in Week 4, he followed that up with a single catch for 14 yards on his only target in Week 5. It doesn’t help that he’s playing behind Jacob Tamme.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus.
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