Fantasy Football Week 3: Matt Camp's Week 3 Preview
Well, that got ugly in a hurry, didn’t it?
Regardless of how you feel after your fantasy football draft, the waiver wire will be your friend at various points in the 2016 NFL season. How much of a friend depends on how well your team does, how many injuries you have to deal with and, most importantly, how willing you are to use the waiver wire to your advantage.
For those who lost Danny Woodhead for the season or Adrian Peterson indefinitely, there’s likely no choice but to find the next best running back option in the free-agent pool. But for those whose teams avoided the injury bug in Week 2, don’t think you can ignore the top pickups on the market.
What will you do if you lose Melvin Gordon in Week 3? The Chargers don’t have anyone close to his talent on their roster. You can be prepared for the worst or add some depth by going after Fozzy Whittaker or Jerick McKinnon this week. Don’t assume you’ll be fine.
Week 2 wasn’t kind to many players, but with proper roster management, you can get back on track in no time.
Quarterbacks
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Waiver Wire
Joe Flacco, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—26.3, Yahoo—29.0
Another week with low ownership following a good performance means another week of Flacco on the streaming list. After a slow start in Week 2, the Baltimore quarterback rebounded to throw for a pair of touchdowns to wide receiver Mike Wallace on 25-of-45 passing with two interceptions. The Ravens trailed 20-0 in the first quarter, which gave Flacco even more reason to throw.
He reconnected with tight end Dennis Pitta for nine receptions and 102 yards on 12 targets in addition to four receptions, 41 yards and two scores on six targets to Wallace. The trio will try to build on the Week 2 comeback (and slim Week 1 win) when the Ravens face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3.
Jacksonville has allowed just 419 passing yards to Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers, but it's given up six passing touchdowns in two games. Flacco should have another busy afternoon in a decent matchup, so try him again as a streamer.
Week 3 Projection: 275 yards, two touchdowns
Marcus Mariota, TEN
Percent Owned: ESPN—52.7, Yahoo—70.0
Mariota hasn’t had much fantasy value over the first two weeks in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings and an upset victory over the Lions. In two games, he’s completed 67.6 percent of his 74 attempts for 509 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Concerns about his limited rushing in this offense have been justified so far with just six carries for 30 yards.
He gets fantasy consideration this week because he has the best possible matchup for a QB in the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders defense has been terrible in the first two games, allowing 819 yards, seven touchdowns and the most QB fantasy points to the combination of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
While Mariota isn’t Brees or Ryan, he’s capable of taking advantage of such a juicy matchup. Streaming the Titans signal-caller at home against Oakland could pay off big.
Week 3 Projection: 265 yards, two touchdowns, 25 rushing yards
Ryan Tannehill, MIA
Percent Owned: ESPN—20.2, Yahoo—28.0
Tannehill and the Dolphins trailed the Patriots 31-3 almost halfway through the third quarter in Week 2, which was the perfect time for a bunch of garbage-time production.
Like he did on multiple occasions last year, Tannehill padded his stats during an attempt at a comeback only for it to fall short with a loss. He completed 32 of 45 pass attempts for 389 yards with a pair of touchdowns and a pair of interceptions as well as a team-leading 35 rushing yards.
Through two weeks, Tannehill is the team’s leading rusher with 52 yards, which is more about the issues at running back, including a groin injury for Arian Foster. Those issues give Tannehill even more reason to throw it against a beatable Browns defense.
Cleveland allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks thanks to 580 yards and four touchdowns in the first two weeks. If the Dolphins can get it together for more than a half, Tannehill should be a good play this week.
Week 3 Projection: 280 yards, two touchdowns, 25 rushing yards
The Matchup Men
As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players whose matchups are helping or hurting them. I’ll provide additional analysis and projections in Wednesday’s Big Board.
Matchup Bumps
Drew Brees, NO (vs. ATL)
Carson Palmer, ARI (at BUF)
Joe Flacco, BAL (at JAC)
Matt Ryan, ATL (at NO)
Philip Rivers, SD (at IND)
Eli Manning, NYG (vs. WAS)
Ryan Tannehill, MIA (vs. CLE)
Marcus Mariota, TEN (vs. OAK)
Matchup Concerns
Andy Dalton, CIN (vs. DEN)
Jameis Winston, TB (vs. LA)
Running Backs
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Waiver Wire
Jerick McKinnon, MIN
Percent Owned: ESPN —24.1, Yahoo—23.0
If McKinnon wasn't available in your league prior to Week 2, then there’s a good chance Adrian Peterson's owner had him as a handcuff. If that’s not the case and McKinnon is available, you should be rushing to grab him whether you have Peterson or not, since it looks like McKinnon will lead the way following news of Peterson’s torn meniscus, per KFAN's Justin Gaard.
Peterson played 34 snaps before going down in Week 2. McKinnon and Matt Asiata had 12 snaps each, and neither provided much production. Asiata rushed for 14 yards on six carries and added a reception on his only target for 11 yards. McKinnon had two carries for two yards and a reception for negative-one yard.
Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star Tribune expects a 65-35 split of carries with McKinnon leading the way and Asiata as the goal-line back. That’s about what I expected, so even if McKinnon does lead the way, be ready for Asiata to steal some short TDs. Asiata was the better option of the two when Peterson was off the active roster in 2014, but that was due to his bigger role in the passing game.
They’ll both get a strong test on the road Sunday against the Carolina Panthers.
Week 3 Projection: 13 carries, 55 rushing yards, three receptions, 19 receiving yards
Fozzy Whittaker, CAR
Percent Owned: ESPN—0.8, Yahoo—4.0
Jonathan Stewart came into Week 2 with an ankle injury and left before the game ended with a hamstring injury. According to Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer, head coach Ron Rivera said Stewart would miss “at least a week or two” with the understanding this could be a longer injury.
Carolina has made Cameron Artis-Payne a healthy inactive in both its games this season, meaning Whittaker has served as Stewart’s primary backup. Thrust into action following Stewart’s injury, Whittaker rushed for 100 yards on 16 carries and added three receptions for 31 yards on four targets in the 46-27 win over San Francisco.
Whittaker is the clear pickup to replace Stewart, and he might have a higher fantasy ceiling if he can stay that busy as a receiver. Stewart’s lack of a role in the passing game put a cap on his value. He had just two receptions this season and 16 in 13 games the year before.
Whittaker will get a tough test against the visiting Vikings in Week 3.
Week 3 Projection: 15 carries, 59 yards, three receptions, 23 yards
Dwayne Washington, DET
Percent Owned: ESPN—0.3, Yahoo—Less than 1.0
As you can see by Washington’s minuscule ownership percentage, no one knows who he is, but they’re learning in a hurry. That’s due to Ameer Abdullah’s foot injury that took him out of the Week 2 loss to the Titans. According to Josina Anderson of ESPN, Abdullah was scheduled to see a specialist in North Carolina on Tuesday.
So how do the Lions prepare for action without Abdullah? Theo Riddick remains at the top of the depth chart, but the 5'9", 201-pound running back isn’t built to carry a heavy workload, at least not on the ground.
That’s where Washington should step in. He’s a bigger back (6'1", 223 lbs) who got two carries at the 1-yard line in Week 1, punching in the second attempt for a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts. According to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, head coach Jim Caldwell confirmed Washington will have a bigger role.
Since Washington doesn’t have the versatility or quickness of Abdullah and is both taller (by four inches) and heavier (by 22 pounds) than Riddick, the Lions could alter their running game to better fit him. On the season, he has 32 yards and a TD on six carries. He’ll have a rough matchup this week against the Packers at Lambeau Field. They’ve allowed just 81 rushing yards and a TD on 44 carries to RBs thus far.
Week 3 Projection: 11 carries, 39 yards, one touchdown
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Percent Owned: ESPN—1.5, Yahoo—1.0
Before I talk about any players in Miami’s backfield, I’ll warn you that I have no interest in them and haven’t for months. In just his second game with the Dolphins, Arian Foster suffered a groin injury, which could cost him at least one game, according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald.
A week after the team intentionally left him in Miami while it traveled to Seattle, Jay Ajayi was active and in the mix after Foster went down in Week 2. He finished with five rushes for 14 yards and four receptions for 31 yards, but he lost a fumble, which did no favors for his standing with the team. The Dolphins haven’t shown much commitment to Ajayi dating back to the start of free agency, so don’t expect him to be the long-term answer if Foster misses significant time.
I’d rather take a flier on Drake because he might have the best chance to be the long-term answer in this backfield. Drake got two carries in Week 2 and turned that into 12 yards and a TD while adding two receptions for six yards. Drake might not start, but he could quickly work his way into more of a split committee.
Week 3 Projection: seven carries, 28 rushing yards, three receptions, 19 receiving yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Melvin Gordon, SD (at IND)
Matt Forte, NYJ (at KC)
LeGarrette Blount, NE (vs. HOU)
Mark Ingram, NO (vs. ATL)
DeMarco Murray, TEN (vs. OAK)
Matchup Concerns
Matt Jones, WAS (at NYG)
Latavius Murray, OAK (at TEN)
Carlos Hyde, SF (at SEA)
Spencer Ware, KC (vs. NYJ)
Wide Receivers
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Waiver Wire
Tyrell Williams, SD
Percent Owned: ESPN—43.4, Yahoo—48.0
Coming into Week 2, Philip Rivers told Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune that the Chargers need Williams to “catch a bunch of balls this year [and] have some huge days and big gains.” The “bunch of balls” part didn’t happen, but the rest did in Week 2.
Williams brought in three of his six targets for 61 yards, including a 44-yard TD in one of the biggest beatdowns of the week in San Diego’s 38-14 victory over the visiting Jaguars. Williams played 50 of the 68 snaps, fewer than Dontrelle Inman (59 snaps) but more than the productive Travis Benjamin (44 snaps).
Proving himself in the first game after the team lost Keenan Allen to a torn ACL and the same game they lost Danny Woodhead to a torn ACL, per NFL.com's Conor Orr, should build trust between Williams and Rivers—and between Williams and you as a fantasy owner. The second-year wide receiver has a chance to follow up Week 2 with an even better performance in Week 3 against a vulnerable Colts defense.
Week 3 Projection: four receptions, 68 yards
Quincy Enunwa, NYJ
Percent Owned: ESPN—5.5, Yahoo—10.0
Through two weeks, Eric Decker leads the Jets with 163 receiving yards, which isn’t a total surprise. Brandon Marshall and his 133 yards aren't behind Decker, though. That spot goes to Enunwa with 146 yards. He came through in a big way in Week 2 by catching all six of his targets for 92 yards in a 37-31 road win over the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Enunwa came into the matchup with a rib injury and aggravated it during the game. He was able to play through it, though, so it’s a slight concern to monitor heading into the Week 3 matchup with the Chiefs.
However, Enunwa could be in for a bigger role if he’s fine to play and Marshall has trouble with the knee injury he suffered in Week 2. The Jets draw the Chiefs in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon, which is an average but beatable matchup.
Week 3 Projection: five receptions, 71 yards
Cole Beasley, DAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—7.4, Yahoo—10.0
Dez Bryant owners weren’t happy to see Beasley so active in Week 1, when he had eight receptions on 12 targets to Bryant’s one reception on five targets. Bryant bounced back with seven receptions for 102 yards on 12 targets in Week 2, yet Beasley didn’t suffer, catching five of his six targets for 75 yards.
After just one play of 20-plus yards in Week 1, QB Dak Prescott had 20-yard completions to four different players in Week 2, including Bryant and Beasley. However, the longest play was 29 yards to tight end Jason Witten, as Prescott is still keeping his throws somewhat safe without attacking downfield.
That’s not bad for Beasley. He should remain an active part of the passing attack with a good matchup Sunday night against the visiting Chicago Bears.
Week 3 Projection: six receptions, 68 yards
Victor Cruz, NYG
Percent Owned: ESPN—42.3, Yahoo—37.0
Cruz hadn’t made a blip on the fantasy radar since the first half of the 2014 season. That was until he caught all four of his targets for 34 yards and a score in the opening-week win over the Cowboys. He followed that up with four catches for 91 yards on eight targets in Week 2 against the Saints.
The solid stat line is noteworthy because it came in a game that saw Odell Beckham Jr. put up eight receptions for 86 yards on 11 targets and rookie Sterling Shepard catch all eight of his targets for 117 yards. As usual, Eli Manning can get the most out of his receivers and now has three he can trust. Cruz has fantasy value once again and isn’t a bad reach play at home against the reeling Redskins in Week 3.
Week 3 Projection: four receptions, 63 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd, ARI (at BUF)
DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller, HOU (at NE)
Odell Beckham Jr./Sterling Shepard, NYG (vs. WAS)
Marvin Jones, DET (at GB)
Tajae Sharpe, TEN (vs. OAK)
Mike Wallace, BAL (at JAC)
Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu, ATL (at NO)
Matchup Concerns
A.J. Green, CIN (vs. DEN)
Stefon Diggs, MIN (at CAR)
Tight Ends
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Waiver Wire
Dennis Pitta, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—10.5, Yahoo—10.0
Rekindling a relationship is always special. Rekindling a fantasy relationship can be rewarding. Nearly two years to the date of Pitta's second major hip injury, the tight end and Joe Flacco reconnected in a big way in a comeback victory over the Browns. Pitta led the Ravens in receiving by catching nine of 12 targets for 102 yards.
Pitta’s nine receptions were his most since the 10 he had in Week 1 of 2014. It was his first 100-yard game since Week 15 of 2012, the last time he played a full season. That year was a great one for fantasy; Pitta had 61 receptions for 669 yards and seven touchdowns on 93 targets and was a prime target for Flacco.
Seeing the two find their rapport again is a welcome sight, especially since the TE position is so weak for fantasy. With so much uncertainty in the Ravens offense, finding stability and a receiver he can rely on is huge for Flacco. Pitta has a great chance to keep it up when the Ravens visit the Jaguars this weekend.
Week 3 Projection: six receptions, 71 yards
Clive Walford, OAK
Percent Owned: ESPN—31.7, Yahoo—17.0
Hopefully, you didn’t give up on Walford after a disappointing Week 1 performance. He rewarded those who stuck with him with the best game of his young career in Week 2. Walford brought in six of his seven targets for 50 yards and a TD in the loss to the Falcons.
Even though the Raiders are in great shape with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree leading the receiving corps, Walford could emerge as a reliable threat in this improving and potentially dangerous offense. Walford faces an average Titans defense that’s allowed eight receptions for 118 yards to tight ends in the first two games.
Week 3 Projection: five receptions, 52 yards
Jesse James, PIT
Percent Owned: ESPN—20.1, Yahoo—25.0
The Steelers expected Ladarius Green to be playing a big role in their offense by now, but with his injury issues, they’ve turned to James with decent results.
After posting five receptions for 31 yards in the opener against Washington, James had three receptions on five targets for 29 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Bengals. James might have done more if teammate and fellow TE Xavier Grimble hadn't also found the end zone.
In the absence of Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell due to suspension and Markus Wheaton’s ongoing shoulder problems, the Steelers are looking for a reliable option in the passing game after wideout Antonio Brown. James is making enough noise to stay in the mix, and the Steelers don’t have much of a choice but to get him involved. He’ll face an Eagles defense that’s held tight ends to four receptions for 33 yards in two games.
Week 3 Projection: four receptions, 40 yards
Kyle Rudolph, MIN
Percent Owned: ESPN—32.2, Yahoo—30.0
Believing in quarterback Sam Bradford isn’t easy, especially when he’s been with the team for less than two weeks. If you expected the veteran to lean on his TE in Rudolph, it paid off in Week 2. Rudolph had three receptions for 31 yards and a TD on eight targets, even though Bradford had a better connection with Stefon Diggs (nine receptions on 11 targets, 182 receiving yards, one touchdown).
Rudolph’s been hyped in the past and usually doesn’t live up to expectations either due to his play or a long list of injuries. The hype shouldn’t be out of control at this point in his career, so expectations are adjusted accordingly.
Diggs is the top option in the offense, but the lineup has a big hole without Adrian Peterson (knee). That means Rudolph could have a bigger role in the red zone after only receiving one red-zone target against Green Bay, per NFLsavant.com. The Vikings get a tough matchup on the road in Week 3 when they head to Carolina.
Week 3 Projection: four receptions, 41 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Eric Ebron, DET (at GB)
Delanie Walker, TEN (vs. OAK)
Dwayne Allen, IND (vs. SD)
Matchup Concerns
Julius Thomas, JAC (vs. BAL)
Defenses
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This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Percent Owned: ESPN—6, Yahoo—5
You may be wondering why the Buccaneers are among the top fantasy defense options for Week 3 coming off an embarrassing loss against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. It’s a fair question considering the Cardinals dropped 40 on them. I’ll try to answer your question with a simple quarterback comparison.
The Buccaneers faced Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer in the first two games. In their third game, they host Case Keenum and the Los Angeles Rams. In two games, Keenum has thrown for 369 yards and two interceptions. The Rams still haven’t scored a touchdown. And if you’re worried about Todd Gurley, the Bucs have limited running backs to 143 yards and a touchdown on 48 carries. The matchup is money.
Week 3 Projection: three sacks, one interception, 10-13 points allowed
Miami Dolphins
Percent Owned: ESPN—5.8, Yahoo—7.0
A good way to pick a fantasy defense is to find one with a matchup involving a terrible quarterback. Both Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown are out with shoulder injuries, so the Browns will turn to rookie QB Cody Kessler or veteran Charlie Whitehurst, who only joined the team this week, per NFL.com's Max Meyer.
Admittedly, the Dolphins are worth a look strictly for the matchup. Miami struggled to stop Jimmy Garoppolo last week in New England before he went down, and it played a close game with the Seahawks and a gimpy Russell Wilson in Week 1.
The Dolphins are tied as the 10th-best fantasy defense over the first two games thanks to five sacks, one interception and two fumble recoveries.
Week 3 Projection: three sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, 10-13 points allowed
New York Giants
Percent Owned: ESPN—4, Yahoo—9
It was hard to get a feel for the Giants defense after it faced Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Week 1. Did it look better because of the improvements it made in personnel or because it faced a rookie QB in his first start? We learned a lot more in Week 2 when New York held the New Orleans Saints to just 13 points in a big victory.
Through two weeks, the Giants have allowed just 32 points and held QBs to 490 passing yards and one touchdown. They’ve also limited running backs to 125 yards and a touchdown on 39 carries. They’ll put their 2-0 record on the line against the mess known as the Washington Redskins. Kirk Cousins threw one TD and three interceptions over the first two weeks and made repeated mistakes in the red zone. The Giants should be able to throw Cousins off his game even more Sunday.
Week 3 Projection: two sacks, two interceptions, 17-20 points allowed
Kickers
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During the season, the kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points forecast will be featured in this section.
Nick Novak, HOU
Percent Owned: ESPN—0.2, Yahoo—8.9
No kicker has made more field goals than Novak over the first two weeks of the season. He’s hit seven of his eight field-goal attempts and three extra points. In Week 2, Novak made four of his five field-goal attempts and added an extra point as part of a solid victory for the Texans over the Chiefs.
Houston’s offense is good but not great, at least not right now. That's usually a good thing for kickers, since it allows for more opportunities. Novak should have those this week when the Texans visit the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. With a low ownership percentage, you should be able to scoop Novak up and reap the benefits.
Nick Folk, NYJ
Percent Owned: ESPN—1.9, Yahoo—36.0
Folk and the Jets were much busier than expected last Thursday in a 37-31 win over the Bills. Folk was perfect on the night with three field goals and four extra points. He’s already hit six of seven field goals and five of six extra points on the season. That makes him a top-five fantasy kicker.
Folk and the Jets face the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 3, and while it’s a tougher matchup than the Bills, Kansas City's defense has been up and down over the first two weeks. Look for Folk to be busy enough to have another reliable fantasy performance.
Camp's Corner
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We’re still another week from being able to justify any sweeping changes to fantasy rosters, even though plenty of you have tweeted me panic trades.
What I would do is pounce on those trying to make panic moves. One of my favorite buy-low candidates is Allen Robinson. Both he and the Jaguars are off to a slow start, but they should be able to rebound quickly with attractive matchups against the Ravens and Colts over the next two weeks.
On the flip side, there are players off to strong starts who won’t keep up their great paces. That includes Cleveland Browns running back Isaiah Crowell. He racked up 133 yards on 18 carries in Week 2, but most of that came on an 85-yard touchdown run. I credit him for the big play yet question how effective he was as a whole with just 48 yards on the remaining 17 carries.
With the Browns down to rookie third-stringer Cody Kessler and veteran Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback, now is the time to move Crowell. His value won’t be any higher, and someone who lost a running back to injury or can’t deal with a slow start from one of their top picks might trip over themselves to get Crowell and the 195 yards and two TDs he has in the first two weeks.
Proceed with aggressive caution as we head into Week 3. Stay on top of the waiver wire no matter how good or bad your team looks after two weeks. Get a sense of how those in your league feel about their rosters and try to exploit those who are vulnerable and panicking with sweeping changes. Mind games are real in fantasy football.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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