Fantasy Football Week 2: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Just over 5 percent of the way into the 2016 NFL season, there are still many impact injuries and meaningful narratives left to play out.

In daily fantasy football, we are tasked with sifting through the results of each week both in terms of statistics like targets, snaps and routes, and also injuries and depth chart shifts, as inefficient pricing is often found via these elements. In this roundup of the daily fantasy marketplace, we'll focus on notable injuries and telling trends that can help us invest better for Week 2. 

How will the likely return of the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski affect the respective value and upside for Jimmy Garoppolo and Julian Edelman? Should we stack the Baltimore Ravens' offense against the feeble Cleveland Browns defense this Sunday? Hint: Yes. 

Let's delve through the league and discuss the daily fantasy market as we approach the start of Week 2.

Receiving Backs on the Rise for Daily Fantasy Football

Tom Dahlin/Getty Images

Giants RB Shane Vereen

The scoring key on DraftKings rewards receptions with a full fantasy point. In fantasy parlance, we call that PPR, as in point per reception. On FanDuel a reception is worth half a point, still a notable return for hauling in a pass.

With the league continuing to be pass-happy and with a growing reliance on specialized committee backfields, let's evaluate some of the best receiving backs to target for DFS value this weekend.

Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions

This can read as chasing last week's points, which is a common refrain in daily fantasy vernacular, but Riddick's growing body of success extends throughout the past several seasons. Consider the fact Riddick led all backs in both 2014 and last season in fantasy points per route run in PPR formats using ESPN's scoring system.

Riddick was stellar last week in burning the Indianapolis Colts for two touchdowns and 108 yards from scrimmage on 12 touches. With the Tennessee Titans ranking sixth in blitzes sent since the start of last season, we could see Riddick serve as a high-percentage safety valve for Matthew Stafford this Sunday.

Priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings, where his game is better appreciated as a PPR maven, we prefer shares of Riddick. On FanDuel, however, Riddick is $5,900 and less valuable given the scoring format and higher percentage of your budget that is demanded. 

Shane Vereen, New York Giants

Getting shares of the Giants against the New Orleans Saints this week is entirely inviting, as last season these teams produced 101 total points—the third-most in NFL history—while the quarterbacks combined for 13 passing scores—the most ever. That sounds fun for fantasy purposes even if we see 60 percent of those prolific production rates. 

Enter Vereen, who hauled in nine catches for 60 yards and a score in that epic shootout. The change-of-pace back played on 44 percent of the team's snaps last week and was 13th in the league last season in fantasy points per route run in PPR formats. Vereen was fifth in targets at the position last season and costs just $3,800 on DraftKings, where his value is truly the strongest given the scoring legend. On FanDuel, meanwhile, he's not as desirable considering he costs $5,100 with a lower fantasy floor given their lesser rewards for his skill set. 

Travaris Cadet, New Orleans Saints

Only the Detroit Lions have targeted tailbacks more than the Saints since the start of the 2014 season. The Saints just released C.J. Spiller, who was supposed to fulfill a receiving role this season, according to Mike Triplett of ESPN.com. This opens up increased routes and snaps for Travaris Cadet, who was targeted on 31.6 percent of his routes in Week 1 and scored a pivotal touchdown 

Feature back Mark Ingram was on the field for just 42 percent of the team's snaps, a glaring dip from last season's 62.7 percent rate, per Pro Football Focus. It's unclear if game script pushed Ingram off the field, as Cadet took on 35.2 percent of the snaps out of the backfield.

With a small sample size of usage to his name, Cadet is solely a tournament option on DraftKings, as he costs just $3,000 in the PPR format, while he's not investable at $5,300 on FanDuel.

Broncos Wideout Demaryius Thomas Dealing with Lingering Hip Injury

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

The Denver Broncos' Demaryius Thomas injured his hip in Week 1 and could be dealing with a lingering issue, per Cameron Wolfe of the Denver Post:  

"

Just my observation: D.T. keeps grabbing his hip while going through drills. Seen some grimacing, too. Something to watch.

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) September 14, 2016"

Wolfe prefaces the comment as merely an observation, but it's telling that Thomas is still dealing with pain nearly a week removed from Week 1's Thursday night win over the Carolina Panthers. Thomas didn't play poorly in that game despite netting just four catches and 48 yards, as the real issue was a lack of passing volume overall for the Broncos. 

Thomas was targeted on 30 percent of his routes, highest among Broncos receivers on the night, but a conservative, run-first scheme could dampen his upside for much of the season. Fading Thomas until he seems healthy and productive is likely wise for cost certainty in DFS. That said, contrarian shares of Emmanuel Sanders, who costs $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel this week, could prove rewarding. 

The Broncos host the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday, which is an inviting matchup for even a conservative passing offense. The Colts are missing top cover corner Vontae Davis and have ceded the ninth-most touchdowns and eighth-most yards to receivers since the start of last season.

We dig upside shares of Sanders and definitely advise loading up on workhorse C.J. Anderson, who consumed 86 percent of the backfield snaps and 87 percent of the carries in Week 1. Anderson isn't going to break your budget at just $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel. With 20 touches all but guaranteed, the cost certainty is enviable, especially with Thomas limited and unlikely to net his normal workload. 

San Diego Shuffle: Who Should We Target After Keenan Allen's Injury

Associated Press

Chargers WR Tyrell Williams

It was a terrible loss for all involved when San Diego Chargers star wideout Keenan Allen went down with a season-ending knee injury just before the half in Kansas City this past Sunday. The team was cruising with a sizable lead and Allen had been getting whatever he wanted against talented cover corner Marcus Peters.

The Chargers lost their best playmaker in the receiving corps and season-long fantasy investors lost a pivotal roster piece. In daily fantasy, however, we must assess the remnants of the Bolts' receiving depth chart and figure out how to best navigate this potentially rewarding San Diego passing portfolio.

We should see an uptick in targets for tight end Antonio Gates, although it's worth noting he earned the lowest grade at the position in Week 1, according to Pro Football Focus, finishing 58th out of 58 qualifying players. That said, the red-zone legend still drives interest in season-long leagues, but might be a bit pricy in daily fantasy at $4,500 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel. It's often wise to punt—as in don't pay a great deal—at tight end. Check out our DFS bargains slide for some alternatives at the position.

It's notable to mention tailback Danny Woodhead out-snapped Melvin Gordon 50 to 23, according to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, in a game where the Chargers held a sizable lead for much of the contest. Woodhead could also see an uptick in routes and targets in the wake of Allen's absence and makes for a stellar investment on DraftKings and their full point-per-reception scoring key at just $5,200. We're not as enthused in shares of the receiving maven on FanDuel given their half-point PPR model and his inflated $6,400 asking price.

The real market inefficiencies to exploit are likely at receiver, as Allen's dominant share of the targets will be dispersed among receivers Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman. Benjamin is the logical first name to consider given he netted a rich offseason contract and led the team in targets last week. Going a bit deeper into the numbers, Benjamin was targeted on 27.3 percent of his routes in Week 1. To add some context to Allen's amazing share, he netted a target on 44 percent of his routes in the first half last week.

The strange part of Benjamin's usage pattern was his average depth of target, as his average target travelled just 2.6 air yards, suggesting he was near the line of scrimmage and not in the second level. Benjamin is regarded as a deep threat, so it will be interesting to see how his role plays out against an exploitable Jacksonville Jaguars secondary that ranked 30th in pass coverage as a team on Pro Football Focus last season. Benjamin is reasonably priced at $6,100 on FanDuel and is a stellar bargain at just $4,400 on DraftKings. 

Between Williams and Inman, we'll take shares of Williams, who netted a target on a rewarding 20.8 percent of his routes with an average depth of target of 14.6 yards downfield in Week 1, best on the team. Inman, meanwhile, ran more routes than Williams but was targeted on just 6.5 percent of his routes with 5.0 air yards per target. Consider what quarterback Philip Rivers had to say about Williams to Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune on Wednesday:

"

Philip Rivers on Tyrell Williams: "We need him to catch a bunch of balls this year — a bunch of balls and have some huge days and big gains"

— Michael Gehlken (@sdutGehlken) September 14, 2016"

Williams can be found for a discount on both platforms, coming in at just $3,300 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel. The pricing is clearly more attractive on DraftKings, but we're advising shares of Williams in both daily and season-long competition.

Patriots Superstar Rob Gronkowski Returns to Practice

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

It wasn't fun for fantasy investors of the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski to see him sit out Week 1, but given a lingering hamstring ailment, it might actually have been the best move for him to maximize his remaining games. According to Mike Reiss of ESPN.com, Gronkowski was back at practice on Wednesday and is trending in the right direction for Sunday's home opener against the Miami Dolphins:

"

Video: TE Rob Gronkowski, who was limited in practice all last week, works on exploding out of his stance. pic.twitter.com/9qGUAmV5UC

— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) September 14, 2016"

Gronk has accounted for 32 percent of Tom Brady's touchdowns and 25 percent of his yards over the past two seasons. From a fantasy perspective, the elite tight end has accounted for 28 percent of Brady's fantasy production. We bring this up to note the type of impact his return might have on stand-in signal-caller Jimmy Garoppolo as Brady serves the second game of his four-game suspension for being too handsome—or deflating balls, something like that. 

Gronkowski set a season high in yards and scored a 47-yard touchdown in the first meeting with Miami last season. As for his daily fantasy stock, Gronkowski costs $6,900 on DraftKings and $8,700 on FanDuel. Given the margin between markets, we prefer shares on DraftKings. 

The real value might be found with Garoppolo—who costs $5,900 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel—as paying down for quarterbacks in cash games is often advisable so that you can spend up at skill positions. The premise is that even modestly priced quarterbacks will drop back 30-plus times and can provide a real return on investment, while only the truly elite skill players offer bankable usage patterns and the high ceilings we chase in DFS play.

We also appreciate the potential positive influence Gronkowski's return could have on Julian Edelman, as teams often need to double cover the unstoppable tight end on clear passing downs, leaving single coverage and clean underneath routes for Edelman. The shifty receiver nets a choice matchup with Miami's Byron Maxwell, who grades 68th among corners through one week on Pro Football Focus, allowing a 103.3 passer rating when targeted.

No matter how you choose to invest in the New England offense, it's helpful to see No. 87 trending toward a return to action. Light domestic beers for everyone! 

Bottom-Dollar Daily Fantasy Bargains in Week 2

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Ravens RB Justin Forsett

Going bargain hunting in daily fantasy football is a fun exercise in blending research and gut calls. You need some statistical substance and some daring confidence to find the right commodities primed to out-perform their price. In this section, let's focus on players found for significant savings that can be deployed in lineups for Week 2. The real goal here is spending up for elite skill players.

This week, for example, the New York Giants' Odell Beckham has an absolutely awesome matchup with a New Orleans Saints secondary missing top corner Delvin Breaux to a broken leg. The one-handed catch master could absolutely feast, as he scored three touchdowns against the Saints last season. 

In order to afford Beckham and other elites like the Cincinnati Bengals' A.J. Green, who has averaged 139 yards and scored three times against the Pittsburgh Steelers over his past four meetings with the bitter rivals. Can we afford both of these prime superstars? Sure, but it will take finding real savings at that third receiver spot. 

Kenny Stills of the Miami Dolphins only caught one pass last week, so we seem crazy to consider him, right? That might be accurate, but we like the fact Stills' average target travelled a whopping 29.8 yards last week and that he was targeted six times. Chasing big plays isn't often wise, but when the opportunities are steady, conversion is more likely. Stills dropped a sure touchdown last week in Seattle. It only costs $3,400 to roster Stills on DraftKings and $4,900 on FanDuel.

How about we spend a bit more, but still net sizable savings, on the Baltimore Ravens' Mike Wallace. The Cleveland Browns are among the worst secondaries in the league, with Wallace capable of feasting on beatable corners Tramon Williams and Jamar Taylor. Wallace's average target was 16 yards downfield in Week 1 and he turned in a 66-yard touchdown, so you can assume Joe Flacco will keep trying that connection. Wallace is a bit steep on FanDuel at $6,100 but entirely investable on DraftKings at $4,700.

Sticking in this same game, the Ravens' Justin Forsett tallied a season-high 170 yards from scrimmage and a score against the Browns last fall and is due double-digit touches and at least 50 percent of the snaps in the Baltimore backfield. Plugging in Forsett and another mid-level back like Danny Woodhead of the San Diego Chargers or T.J. Yeldon of the Jacksonville Jaguars could prove prudent and allow you to spend up on that consortium of superstar receivers. Forsett costs $4,400 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel.

At tight end, how about we stick in this stack-worthy Baltimore roster and nominate Dennis Pitta, who costs just $2,800 on DraftKings. We're not interested in his price on FanDuel, as he's $4,800 there, but on DraftKings the price and scoring format are ideal given Pitta netted the most routes and targets among the team's tight ends last week with Ben Watson missing for the season.

Pitta once had an awesome rapport with Flacco, but injuries have derailed his career. Available in over 90 percent of ESPN leagues as a season-long streamer and reasonable on DraftKings, Pitta is a cheap way to satisfy tight end this week.

Buffalo's Sammy Watkins Questionable for Thursday Night

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills haven't started 0-2 since 2010, when they went 4-12 for the year. They'll seek to avoid such a start on Thursday night against the rival New York Jets. One major issue in avoiding this fate is the foot injury afflicting star wideout Sammy Watkins, who is officially questionable for the game, according to ESPN.com's Mike Rodak:

"

Sammy Watkins (foot) is officially questionable for Thursday's game against Jets. https://t.co/iQYkUtQuN4

— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) September 14, 2016"

Watkins does a ton of his damage on big plays, as he led the league last year in fantasy points per target on passes of at least 10 yards past the sticks, per a study conducted by the author for ESPN. Watkins had eight touchdowns on passes at least 20 yards downfield last year, three more than any other player in the league.

Signal-caller Tyrod Taylor, meanwhile, didn't launch the ball much in Week 1, with his average pass travelling just 5.6 yards downfield. Taylor was third in the league last season with an average depth of target over 10 yards, so this is a glaring shift, albeit over a small sample. Taylor hasn't thrown a touchdown in three straight games, while he didn't attempt a single deep pass (20-plus yards) to Watkins in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Watkins' reputation still drives relatively high pricing, as he's $7,300 on DraftKings—and due likely to an input error he's not even listed on FanDuel, so maybe their engineers would also like to avoid him this week. Given the Jets' stellar pass rush—they sacked Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals a career-high seven times in Week 1—we're fading shares of Taylor and Watkins in daily fantasy.

Jacksonville's Chris Ivory Could Miss Another Week

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Jaguars RB Chris Ivory

Jacksonville Jaguars tailback Chris Ivory has been released from the hospital after spending several days there for what the team has described as a "general medical condition and later described as a nonfootball injury," per Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com.

There is no timetable for his return, according to DiRocco, but it's reasonable to project he'll miss this week's trip to San Diego to face the Chargers. If that's the case, second-year tailback T.J. Yeldon becomes an intriguing fantasy football asset, particularly in daily competition.

Yeldon was inefficient in Week 1 with just 1.9 yards per carry against the Green Bay Packers, but we're impressed with the 25 touches he netted in the process. For just $4,700 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel, Yeldon is one of the better buys among mid-priced backs.

First, let's consider the matchup, as the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, the most yards per reception (8.62), the third-most rushing touchdowns and second-most yards per carry (4.97) to running backs since the start of last season. Reduced to a single statement: The Chargers are not good at defending running backs.

Next, consider Yeldon is the rare bell cow back with Ivory out, as Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus shared:

"

Ladies and Gentlemen...

Your Week 1 Bell Cow Running Backs: pic.twitter.com/uDxyiKUsV2

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 12, 2016"

We dig Yeldon in both season-long and daily fantasy football this weekend, particularly on DraftKings with that modest asking price. Even if it's a one-week window before Ivory is back to cloud the usage share, this soft setup in San Diego is entirely inviting. 

Route, target and defensive data sourced from an ESPN database for this piece.