Fantasy Football Week 1 Review

While we still have the Monday games to play out, Week 1 of the 2016 NFL campaign proved riveting. From dramatic comebacks to devastating injury, the narratives for us to consider as fantasy football fans are plentiful. In this piece, we delve into a series of meaningful topics in the wake of Week 1, such as the top stars, breakouts and injuries to evaluate. 

Sadly, we seem to have lost the San Diego Chargers' Keenan Allen for the season with an ACL injury, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune. In a fast-paced and physical game, it's impossible to avoid such disappointing injury scenarios. As fantasy investors, we are tasked with evaluating the situation with an eye on projecting the Chargers offense sans Allen, something we cover from several angles in this piece.

There were also glorious moments on a football-filled Sunday, as the Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions engaged in a riveting shootout, while the New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders also took things down to the wire in a high-scoring fantasy fest. 

Join us in canvassing the results of Week 1 with a specific eye on the fantasy football marketplace. 

Fantasy Football Week 1 Statistical Stars

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Each week a set of statistical superstars shifts the outcomes in fantasy football. You find your fantasy team down 32 points and essentially hopeless heading into the late-afternoon slate, only to see the Indianapolis Colts' Andrew Luck score 35 to put you back in the driver's seat to victory.

In this section, we highlight the most influential, slate-shifting performances at each position.

Star Signal-Callers

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

The theme for Luck was "four" on Sunday afternoon. No, he didn't hit errant golf shots all day; instead he delivered 406 total yards and four touchdowns to produce the most fantasy points among signal-callers in ESPN leagues through Sunday. After a quiet first half, Luck erupted for three scores in the second stanza in what could have been a late game-winning score if the Colts defense had held up against the Detroit Lions.

Given their generous defense, the Colts will surely engage in a series of shootouts this season, which could prove profitable from a production standpoint for Luck's investors. Expectations for Week 2 are a bit tempered with the Denver Broncos' stout defense up next, but we're still deploying Luck in all formats given his volume-driven role at the helm of the Indy offense.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Brees was taken as the fifth quarterback on average in ESPN leagues this summer, but he has a legitimate path to the top overall spot in fantasy this season. Not only does he have one of his best arsenals of skill players of his career, he's also—like Luck—forced to continuously produce points in an effort to counter one of the league's most, if not the most, generous defenses in the league.

Brees even topped Luck's gaudy yardage production on the day and also saw his defense blow a late lead, while he delivered 428 total yards and four scores. The numbers will continue to pile up against the New York Giants next week for Brees and his talented cast of skill players with what might be his deepest receiving corps in his career.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

The shootout in Indianapolis was kind to the fantasy fortunes of the two quarterbacks involved. Stafford completed nearly 80 percent of his passes in Sunday's victory, continuing on his rare efficiency from the second half of last season. The Lions appear built to pass early and often on offense, suggesting Stafford has top-10 potential at the position for Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans and for the rest of the season.

Honorable Mention: When it comes to Jameis Winston's strong showing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, we humbly reference our bold prediction from Week 1: "Jameis Winston produces top-three fantasy metrics at the quarterback position."

We missed out on the top-three prediction for Winston, as he's currently tied for fourth in fantasy points at the position, but the premise of a breakout statistical showing proved accurate. The Bucs have a somewhat brutal schedule until a Week 6 bye, but after that enjoy a long fantasy-friendly stretch, including arguably the most inviting playoff schedule with two meetings with the Saints.

Top Tailbacks

Spence Ware, Kansas City Chiefs

Going back to last week, we offered this bit of speculation: "For a bold backfield call, we'll say the Kansas City Chiefs' Spencer Ware produces top-five fantasy results at the position." With a career-high 199 yards from scrimmage in an epic comeback victory over the San Diego Chargers, Ware shares the honors as the top fantasy tailback of the week in ESPN standard leagues heading into Monday night.

C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos

Tied with Ware atop the backfield leaderboard, Anderson looked great this past Thursday against a capable Carolina Panthers defense. With a run-first scheme on a team with a raw signal-caller, this RB1 candidate could again feast in Week 2 against the Colts' soft front seven.

Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions

Facing the Colts could lead to a number of backs thriving this season, as Riddick turned just 12 touches into 108 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on Sunday. Such scoring efficiency isn't to be expected, but this is the part where we remind you Riddick led all backs in fantasy points per route run last season, thus there is some sustainability for RB2-level production for the third-down maven in points-per-reception formats. With the Titans proving stout versus the run, Riddick could be busy in the passing phase in Week 2.

Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers

Even as breakout candidate Melvin Gordon scampered to two touchdowns on the afternoon, it was Woodhead who led the backfield in snaps and produced the more impressive fantasy effort. Gordon looked good, while Woodhead looked Woodheady—which is to say the diminutive dynamo was as shifty and savvy as ever as Philip Rivers' favorite short-yardage playmaker.

As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke shared on Twitter, Woodhead remains the majority shareholder in the backfield breakdown and could again produce top-10 PPR numbers at the position (especially with Keenan Allen unfortunately getting injured).

Honorable Mentions: Superstar asset David Johnson tallied 132 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on Sunday night for the Cardinals. A top-three campaign at the position seems safe as long as he's healthy.

Three steady vets delivered on the day with the Titans' DeMarco Murray proving efficient in the passing phase, while the Philadelphia Eagles' Ryan Mathews churned out a volume-driven effort. Finally, Matt Forte netted 155 yards from scrimmage, reminding the market he's still a fine RB1, especially in PPR competition.

Winning Wideouts

Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints

The Saints' duo of standout receivers both produced top-three fantasy results at the position in the shootout in the Superdome on Sunday. The Saints could, and likely even should, lead the league in passing volume this season, with Cooks entering the WR1 tier and Snead making his bid as a surprising WR2 fixture after going at a discount in drafts this summer.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Even with the New York Jets' Darrelle Revis shadowing him for much of the game, Green delivered a monster outing (No. 2 among fantasy WR) in carrying the Cincinnati passing game to victory. With so many targets vacated from last season's offense, Green could very well lead the NFL in receiving yardage, if not yards from scrimmage, this season.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Some drafts saw Fitzgerald taken as the third receiver on his own offense. Fantasy investors can be risk-averse when it comes to aging players, but Fitz continues to shine as Carson Palmer's security blanket—especially in the red zone, where he produced two scores in a solid showing on Sunday night.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Matthews of the Philadelphia Eagles netted 14 targets from Carson Wentz, suggesting he could challenge for the league lead in attention given his clear perch atop the pecking order on a weak wideout depth chart for the Birds.

Speedsters Will Fuller of the Houston Texans and Mike Wallace of the Baltimore Ravens are at different ends of their respective careers, but both could prove exciting as elite vertical threats this season. Big-bodied wideouts Kelvin Benjamin of the Panthers and Mike Evans of the Bucs are red-zone weapons who also get downfield, while the Oakland Raiders' Amari Cooper is a dark horse to challenge Green for the yardage crown.

Top Tight Ends

Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts

Doyle was merely the beneficiary of some red-zone love and not a player we'll target going forward, while Allen made good on our preseason hype as a top red-zone weapon for Luck. Allen has top-10 potential at the position going forward.

Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas was ultimately efficient in hauling in all five of his targets on Sunday en route to top-three fantasy metrics at the position. Much like Allen, we find top-10 upside in Thomas given his red-zone rapport and pass-happy offense.

Honorable Mentions: It wasn't a stellar weekend at the position, but it was nice to see breakout candidate Eric Ebron of the Lions prove healthy and capable in the season opener, while the Panthers' Greg Olsen continues to angle for top-three consideration at the position.

Decisive Defenses

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings turned in two touchdowns and the slate's highest fantasy total at the position. Coach Mike Zimmer has one of the deepest and most talented defensive corps in the league, while his aggressive scheme could lead to plenty of big fantasy outings.

Philadelphia Eagles

We also were impressed by the Philadelphia Eagles' ball-hawking defense (No. 2 among fantasy defenses), a group that could also prove helpful given an aggressive Wide 9 defensive front.

Week 1 Flops in Fantasy Football

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Not all players can deliver value each week, and some downright leave us in the lurch. This crop of disappointing performances felled fantasy teams this week.  

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills

With just 111 passing yards and 11 on the ground, Taylor was held to five fantasy points in a disappointing debut after signing a massive pact in the offseason. The Bills and his fantasy investors need more from Taylor, although a Week 2 meeting with the stingy New York Jets defense might not prove ideal.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Wilson wasn't his efficient self on Sunday, but we're still buying shares as a top-five fantasy asset. We've seen sluggish starts to the season for Wilson, with 2015 as a viable reference. As for some promising news from the poor statistical outing? Wilson set a career high in pass attempts, which could be a sign of things to come given a somewhat patchwork backfield.

The real concern might just be an ankle injury Wilson suffered in the game, one that Ian Rapoport of NFL Network suggests could affect his availability for Week 2. This suddenly makes Wilson a buy-low candidate for those willing to assume any injury risks in his recovery. 

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

A share of snaps and touches with Tevin Coleman felled Freeman's fantasy output. Even if he's the better per-touch playmaker, it doesn't really matter if he's mired in a defeating share for touches. We're not signaling the bust alarm just yet, as it's still so early in the season. Some softer setups await, as the Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saints could serve as proving grounds for Freeman's stock over the next two weeks.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

An ugly outing saw Peterson net just 1.6 yards per carry, as the Tennessee Titans stacked the box throughout Sunday's loss to the Vikings. We're not too worried, however, as bigger days are ahead for Peterson—especially if Sam Bradford can help keep opposing fronts more honest in the box.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

A fine buy-low candidate, we still envision fun fantasy outings ahead for Bernard despite a sluggish season opener in which the New York Jets' sound front seven bottled him up. The window for buying Bernard at a depressed price shouldn't last too long, so act now.

Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs are stingy with tight ends given safety Eric Berry proves elite in coverage; thus we can forgive Gates' no-show outing in Week 1 and instead bank on increased usage in the wake of Keenan Allen's unfortunate injury.

Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns

A compelling study by Brian Malone at RotoViz considers whether running quarterbacks—specifically Robert Griffin III—limit the appeal for receiving tailbacks like Johnson, who thrives via the short pass. The premise is that there isn't a great deal of success over the larger sample of mobile quarterbacks working with receiving backs, thus we have some concerns over Johnson's upside this season.

Early Waiver Watch for Week 1: Top Pickups to Consider

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We've selected players who are all available in at least 40 percent of ESPN leagues and capable of building on strong Week 1 showings.

Mike Wallace, Baltimore Ravens

This veteran speedster delivered a 66-yard touchdown and converted preseason hype into regular-season production. With the Ravens' receiving depth chart proving somewhat thin, Wallace is a fine candidate to produce top-25 fantasy results at the position. Let's remember that the Ravens are a volume-driven passing attack these days with offensive coordinator Marc Trestman at the helm.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans

This rookie burner averaged over 21 yards per reception in his pro debut and could benefit throughout the season from playing opposite DeAndre Hopkins, who is sure to draw double coverage often this season.

Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts

With an eight-touchdown campaign under his belt from 2014 and the Colts proving uniquely pass-happy thanks to a weak running game and porous defense, Allen is a great get for those still left thin at the tight end position.

Tyrell Williams, San Diego Chargers

This suggestion is far more speculative than the names above, but you can find Williams available in 99 percent of ESPN leagues at the moment, which seems like a lot of leagues. Keenan Allen is out for the season, it appears, so Williams could enter into two-receiver sets for the remainder of the campaign for the Chargers.

Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons

The sophomore breakout candidate had a surprisingly huge day in the passing game (5 REC, 95 YDS), and most relevantly a share of backfield snaps with Devonta Freeman, per Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke. Preseason talk of a committee is proving accurate, while Coleman could emerge as a valuable commodity from the waiver wire.

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

A balky ankle in the preseason dampened interest in Ebron in drafts, but the widely available athletic tight end won't be busy blocking this season, since Detroit drafted him for his receiving prowess. With the glut of targets vacated in the wake of Calvin Johnson's retirement, Ebron has top-five upside at the position.

Tajae Sharpe, Tennessee Titans

A trendy preseason sleeper, Sharpe is looking every bit the top target for Marcus Mariota and should be universally owned, especially in PPR formats.

Trendspotting: Snap Data from Around the League in Week 1

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With a week of data to evaluate, let's look at some potentially telling snap trends around the league. We'll leverage the always accurate and helpful information of Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke as our guide to opportunity rates from Week 1.

The most telling backfield share emerging in the league might just be in Atlanta, as the Falcons' talk of a backfield is looking accurate. Shares of Tevin Coleman look interesting, while we'd still hold onto Freeman given the potential for big games in the passing phase and as the team's likely leader in goal-line scenarios.

"

Falcons HB snap count on the day: Devonta Freeman 36, Tevin Coleman 32

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 11, 2016"

We also find a share emerging in Baltimore, although we expected and projected as such. We don't find much immediate value from Justin Forsett or Terrance West, as the best move might just be to stash recovering rookie Kenneth Dixon for the bigger payoff.

"

Ravens HB snap count on the day: Justin Forsett 37, Terrance West 27

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 11, 2016"

All that talk of a workload share for the New York Jets backfield was, well, talk, as Matt Forte dominated touches and snaps on the way to 155 yards from scrimmage against a solid defense. Forte is back in the RB1 conversation, especially in PPR leagues.

"

Jets HB snap count for the day: Matt Forte 55, Bilal Powell 16

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 11, 2016"

Further evidence for our lack of concern with Gio Bernard's quiet Week 1: He was in a nearly even split for snaps with Jeremy Hill. Better days are ahead for Bernard.

"

Bengals HB snap count for the day: Jeremy Hill 29, Giovani Bernard 28

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 11, 2016"

We're big fans of John Brown of the Arizona Cardinals, but if he's truly the tertiary option in regards to snaps and targets, we might need to reevaluate his market price going forward. It's still just a one-week sample, but we'll watch this as if it were a backfield breakdown going forward.

"

Cardinals final WR snap count: Larry Fitzgerald 59, Michael Floyd 58, John Brown 35, Jaron Brown 17, JJ Nelson 2. Out of 61

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 12, 2016"

Fantasy Football Week 1: Impact Injuries

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The San Diego Chargers' Keenan Allen is likely done for the for the season with an ACL injury, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune. It's truly a shame given his prodigious talent and growing injury history.

The fantasy fallout of Allen's injury could lead to Tyrell Williams earning increased snaps and targets, while free-agent acquisition Travis Benjamin now has a real opportunity for a massive uptick in usage. We also find a trickle-down effect in the target department for tailback Danny Woodhead and tight end Antonio Gates likely, as both could feast going forward. 

The Bills' Sammy Watkins could be out for several weeks with a recurrent foot ailment, per Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News. Watkins entered the season with real risk given offseason surgery, and this is a big blow to an already thin Buffalo receiving corps. We can also downgrade Tyrod Taylor going forward given his reliance on Watkins. 

The Seattle Seahawks worked out a close win over the Miami Dolphins this week, but the cost might be an injury to Russell Wilson, their superstar signal-caller. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network suggests the ankle ailment could affect his availability for Week 2. We'll closely track updates for Wilson, as he was drafted as a top-five option in all formats this summer. 

Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots remains one of the bigger injury narratives affecting the fantasy market. We'll keep a close eye on his status heading into Week 2, but it appears the team will prove conservative in resting their superstar. With that in mind, the Indianapolis Colts' Dwayne Allen and Detroit Lions' Eric Ebron could serve as helpful fill-ins for those waiting on Gronk to return. 

Even though it's on the defensive side of the ball, the New Orleans Saints lost top cover corner Delvin Breaux to a broken fibula, per Rapoport. This loss means the Saints are an even more enviable matchup for fantasy purposes, as their already generous secondary now lacks its top coverage asset.

Buy-Low Targets After Week 1 in Fantasy Football

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The market in fantasy football can quickly shift from week to week, as we tend to be an overreactive bunch. With that in mind, what players coming off of disappointing Week 1 performances might we be able to poach at a discount with an eye on securing future dividends? 

Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

The Jacksonville Jaguars read like a good matchup to most of us, as they've long been a downtrodden franchise we seek to exploit in fantasy matchups. However, the Jags were fifth last season in limiting running backs on a per-carry basis, which is to say they are actually stout against opposing ground games.

This makes Lacy's quiet fantasy effort in Week 1 more palatable, while recency bias after a truly bad 2015 season could deflate his current stock. Throw some offers to the Lacy owner in your league and see what sticks. 

Nelson might not prove as easy to pry from an owner, but with just 32 yards on the day—albeit with a touchdown—Nelson might sell for, say, 85 cents on the dollar. We'd actually pay over his market price at this point, as he looked healthy and played 84 percent of the team's offensive snaps, per Pro Football Focus. This isn't too far removed from his traditional low-90s snap rate; thus we really did see him enjoy a full complement of routes and snaps in his return from injury.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

We doubt you'll net a sizable discount on Elliott, but we also believe week-winning performances are en route for a player with a rare combination of talent and opportunity. The Giants successfully stacked the box and stuffed Elliott, but behind an elite offensive line and with rare workload volume driving a high fantasy floor, this elite rookie option still has top-five upside. If you can catch a panicked owner with a three-for-one deal, submit the offers now. 

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

With Marvin Jones rightfully earning praise after a strong offseason gave way to solid season debut, Tate is flying under the radar as a candidate to produce over 100 receptions and thrive in PPR formats. This week against the suspect Indianapolis Colts secondary was supposed to signal a big day for Tate, but he tallied just 41 yards largely on underneath routes. Bigger box scores are ahead for Tate, as the Lions will trend uniquely pass-happy. The team, after all, led the NFL in dropback percentage last season according to an ESPN database.