Predicting the NFL's Sophomore Slumps for the 2016 Season

No one wants to be a wet blanket in July. Hope is blowing through the air like a summer breeze. Thirty-two franchises just added free agents and draft selections to their roster, and everyone is hoping to improve on last season.

With that said, not everyone gets better on an annual basis. Sometimes athletes are moved into different roles, receive different coaching or are surrounded by different players, leading to a drop-off. This is true for NFL players of any age, including those who just finished their rookie seasons.

We'll take a look at eight high-profile outgoing rookies who for whatever reason are set up to fail to meet expectations in 2016. 

Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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In 2015, Jameis Winston was the first overall pick of the draft. He also won the Rookie of the Year award and played in the Pro Bowl, all while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went from 2-14 in 2014 to 6-10 under Winston. Right or wrong, quarterbacks in the NFL do get credit for their teams' results.

I don't believe Winston will regress in 2016, but it's hard to imagine that the narrative around him won't change. 2015 was his honeymoon season, but now he's going to be compared to the other 31 starting quarterbacks every week of the season, not just members of his draft class.

The Buccaneers won't be helping him much from a personnel standpoint, as their first offensive player drafted this April was Caleb Benenoch, a lineman from UCLA. The only skill player taken by the team was Dan Vitale, a sixth-round H-back who played fullback at Northwestern, a dying position in today's game.

There seems to be a disconnect between how we hope Winston evolves in the NFL and the realistic goals of sophomore passers in his situation.

Per Ben Fawkes of ESPN.com, the Buccaneers are only favored to win four games straight-up, based on point spreads, in the 2016 season. In fact, on paper, Tampa Bay should enter their Week 9 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons at 1-6.

On the other hand, Mike DiRocco of ESPN.com has the team with a 8-7 record entering Week 17, the final game of the season that Vegas has yet to put a line on due to the volatility of playoff situations.

Those in the media around the team are projecting another step up for the Buccaneers, while those who make money gambling on the sport are planning to cash in on a regression. Between a declining Vincent Jackson, an inconsistent Mike Evans and a tantrum-throwing Austin Seferian-Jenkins, there's no promise that Winston's pass-catchers are going to be reliable in 2016.

The team's top skill player is likely to be Doug Martin, a 27-year-old running back coming off a bounce-back season in a contract year. Winston will likely grow in 2016, but he threw the fifth-most interceptions in the league in 2015, and the Buccaneers fielding a potentially bottom-five roster in the league is out of his hands.

When a team fails, it's put on the shoulders of the head coach, general manager and quarterback, which is why there's so much turnover at those positions in the NFL. Looking ahead, Winston might want to start icing his back in the preseason.

Vic Beasley, LB, Atlanta Falcons

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The Atlanta Falcons were in an odd spot heading into the 2015 draft. You could have made the case that they had the worst pass-rushing unit in the NFL, but they had just brought in head coach Dan Quinn, who was previously the defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks, one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league. The question was not if, but how was he going to turn that front seven around.

There were four notable pass-rushers on draft weekend. The first was Dante Fowler out of Florida, where Quinn had previously coached. But the general consensus was that Fowler was a top-five lock, and the Falcons were drafting eighth.

The next was Shane Ray of Missouri, an undersized pass-rusher with a horrendous 7.6-second three-cone-drill time who had been arrested for possession of marijuana less than a week before the draft.

The other two options were the super athletes: Bud Dupree of Kentucky, who was still learning how to play the small games of pass-rushing but had the leaping ability of Mario Williams, and Vic Beasley of Clemson, who was a back-to-back All-American but had the size of a situational pass-rusher at the next level. With Fowler off the board, the team elected to select the latter with their first-round pick.

Beasley was often compared to Bruce Irvin, the Seahawks' 2012 first-round pick who Quinn played at off-the-ball linebacker after Irvin's rookie season as an edge defender. History will repeat itself this season, with Beasley converting from a pass-rushing 4-3 defensive end—where he notched four sacks last season, good for fifth in his rookie class—to a true linebacker role.

As a rookie, Irvin made eight sacks. In his first year as a linebacker, he made two, and he hasn't been able to match his rookie production since. The writing is on the wall: Beasley's opportunities to rush the passer are going to be few and far between at his new position, and statistically, that won't reflect well for the sophomore.

Ereck Flowers, OT, New York Giants

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In one of the strangest decisions of 2015, the New York Giants selected Ereck Flowers of Miami with the ninth overall pick of the draft. Why was it so odd? The 6'5", 329-pounder was one of the more inconsistent offensive tackles in college football with the Hurricanes and even left school a year early.

Flowers will enter the season as a 22-year-old giant, and his size provides some hope. But he tested subpar at the combine in terms of on-field drills. On paper, he's a large but below-average athlete for an NFL bookend, and last year, he was one of the worst tackles in the league. According to Pro Football Focus, Flowers was the worst pass-blocking and overall offensive tackle in the NFL in 2015.

Last season, he dealt with multiple injuries and was thrown into the fire after Will Beatty went down for the year, but there are no more excuses in 2016. One reason why many believe injury wasn't a big factor last year was how Flowers lost and who he lost to. When Randy Gregory was on the Dallas Cowboys, he blew through Flowers. When Randy Gregory was on the Nebraska Cornhuskers, he blew through Flowers. 

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Eugene Monroe, the former Baltimore Ravens left tackle, has the Giants on a short list of teams he could play for in 2016. If he does sign, expect Flowers to play right tackle, a position top-10 selections rarely see time at.

It's not Flowers' fault he was drafted as high as he was, but he's on the fast track, based on college and rookie film, to be the next Justin Gilbert—a top-10 selection who simply wasn't talented enough to hang around the NFL as a starter.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers

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The San Diego Chargers' offense doesn't function like many others in the NFL. With Philip Rivers orchestrating the offense, he wants the ball in his hands often, and his quick elimination process means the ball is going to come out of his hands quickly. In that way, the Chargers function like the New England Patriots under Tom Brady.

What this typically means is that a running back is going to get a significant amount of catches out of the backfield. In 2015, Danny Woodhead, a now 31-year-old back, led the team in receptions. When Woodhead was in the backfield, the offense ran smoother than when Melvin Gordon was the tailback.

Unfortunately, Gordon was the team's first-round pick, and at that position with that much invested in him, there was a stigma that he needed to produce early, especially when compared to Todd Gurley, the first running back off the board in 2015. Gurley looked like a top-five back in the NFL when healthy. 

Gordon made 12 starts last season, but his combined 833 yards didn't have as much of an impact as Woodhead's 1,091. Gordon now faces another struggle, too: injury recovery.

According to Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Gordon went through microfracture surgery on his knee this offseason. That procedure holds a lot of weight. The last top prospect to undergo it, Jadeveon Clowney, was considered a generational talent, but hasn't reached close to his college production at the NFL level.

Is this the beginning of the end for Gordon? It's not looking good, but we'll know after the 2016 who he is going to be.

Already 23 years old, the former Wisconsin Badger has about five years before age would suggest a rapid decline in his play. Peaking on rookie contracts is incredibly important for running backs from a team perspective, and Gordon only has two seasons left before the Chargers decide to pick up his fifth-year option.

Markus Golden, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals

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A sophomore slump is a relative term. Markus Golden's four sacks may not stand out on their own, but as a rookie, that was good enough to rank fifth in his draft class in his first year with the Arizona Cardinals. On top of that, his total pressures and pass-rushing productivity, measured by Pro Football Focus, were the best among 2015 draft picks.

We often think of young players as raw athletes who are only going to get better with age, but there are some flaws in that line of thinking with Golden. First, he's not a great athlete for an edge defender.

Golden's 4.9-second 40-yard dash is one reason why he wasn't a first-round pick to begin with, and his 7.39-second three-cone drill and 4.59-second short shuttle (the agility drills which translate best from on-paper athleticism to on-field pass-rushing potential) weren't anything to write home about.

Golden isn't a player like Jerry Hughes or Melvin Ingram, who flashed untapped potential at the combine and broke out with double-digit sack seasons late in their rookie contracts. As an athlete, Golden appears to be tapped out.

The other factor that makes Golden a sophomore to highlight is his age. Certain players, like Amari Cooper, from the 2015 draft class are just turning 22 years old. Golden is already 25, the age of some second-contract players.

It's not uncommon for pass-rushers who didn't test well in the combine agility drills to peak as rookies or early on in their careers. The best example of this in recent memory would be Quinton Coples, who had 5.5 sacks in his first year with the New York Jets in 2012 and is now on his third team in less than a calendar year.

Coples, who is heading into his fifth NFL season, just turned 26 this summer, making him only a year older than Golden.

With the addition of Chandler Jones, an established pass-rusher, and Robert Nkemdiche, a generational athlete who saw pass-rushing looks at Ole Miss, the Cardinals should build around their 2016 signings at the position rather than their 2015 "breakout" if they value the team's long-term health at the position over short-term winning.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

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Despite the fact that Oakland's Amari Cooper blew every rookie receiver out of the water with his 1,070 receiving yards in 2015, Tyler Lockett was still able to match his rookie-leading six touchdown receptions last season. Lockett's number of first-down receptions, 31, also put him in third place in the group, behind Cooper and Washington's Jamison Crowder.

Between his pass-catching and return ability, his rookie season was a massive success. With the Seattle Seahawks, Lockett posted 852 kick return yards, second out of the 2015 draft class, and 379 punt return yards, first out of the 2015 draft class, including a score in both categories. Due to his return contributions, Lockett was named to the Pro Bowl and the Associated Press' All-Pro list.

His return contribution, which for the most part is isolated for individuals, shouldn't change in 2016, but don't be surprised if he regresses a bit as a receiver, at least statistically. The Seahawks offense is about to go through a massive transition period, and Lockett could fall victim to the shuffling characters.

First, receiver Doug Baldwin just got a massive extension, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he ends up being a bigger part of Seattle's plans moving forward. Second, if tight end Jimmy Graham is ever used correctly, the former All-Pro could also take a significant amount of touches away from Lockett.

Most importantly, though, is the Seahawks' backfield situation. Marshawn Lynch, their bell cow in recent years and arguably the face of the franchise, has retired. Thomas Rawls, their top back after Lynch in 2015, is an undrafted sophomore who is rehabbing a broken ankle at the moment.

The franchise just drafted three running backs, but the highest one selected came off the board with the 90th overall pick. The once-crowded tackle boxes the Seahawks often faced may no longer be there, as teams ask unproven backs to run against NFL defenses. If that happens, and Lockett is the third pass-catching option on the roster, it's hard to see how he outdoes his rookie year in 2016.

Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

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As a 21-year-old, Danielle Hunter will enter the 2016 season as one of the youngest sophomores in the 2015 draft class. The pass-rusher left LSU after three seasons as a raw product, a player who had flashes of explosive attributes but was never able to put it all together for a developed game.

In 2015, as a rookie, he was finally able to grow into a more complete player, recording six sacks, second only to Preston Smith of Washington (eight sacks) for first-year players. Both Hunter and Smith mostly came off the bench for their rookie contributions, but Washington has now moved Trent Murphy to defensive end for Smith to play in a full-time role, while Hunter still projects as a bench player in the coming season.

With Everson Griffen, who is coming off of back-to-back double-digit sack seasons, and Brian Robison, who has combined cap hit of nearly $12 million over the next two years, per Spotrac, ahead of Hunter on the depth chart, it seems like the former Tiger is buried in the Minnesota Vikings' pass-rushing unit.

Other than Whitney Mercilus, who started 10 of 16 games played in 2015 and recorded 12 sacks, there isn't an example of a veteran pressure player coming off the bench for a major contribution at the NFL level. Even then, Mercilus still started 10 games last year, nine more than Hunter.

By the end of his rookie contract, Hunter could be a top-15 defensive end in the league. For now, though, he's going to struggle to see the field.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings

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As a rookie, Stefon Diggs recorded 52 receptions and 720 receiving yards for the Minnesota Vikings, which both led the franchise in 2015. He was also one receiving touchdown away from tying tight end Kyle Rudolph's team-leading five scores. Not bad for a fifth-round pick, right?

On the relative scale of rookies, he was great. Diggs finished fourth in receptions, third in receiving yards and fourth in receiving touchdowns for the 2015 class last year. On top of that, his 13 20-plus-yard receptions were only behind Amari Cooper, who was selected fourth overall.

What's the issue then? Consistency in the passing game in Minnesota. In 2015, the Vikings finished 29th overall in yards per game and 31st in passing yards per game. They also had the fewest passing touchdowns of any non-Rams franchise, the Rams being the franchise that just leveraged all of its new-location-honeymoon karma into the first overall pick for a rookie quarterback.

With Diggs now the known threat in Minnesota's substandard passing game, is he going to vanish? After all, he was the 146th pick in the draft, and NFL teams, for the most part, do get the draft more right than wrong.

We've seen the one-year wonder at receiver for the Vikings before, too. In 2013, as a rookie, first-round pick Cordarrelle Patterson was an All-Pro return man and flashed as a deep-game wideout. In the two years since, he's combined for 394 receiving yards.

Charles Johnson, another Day 3 target, flashed with a 475-yard 2014 seemingly out of nowhere. As a known commodity in 2015, though, despite four starts, he only made nine receptions.

Diggs may well add a third name to that flash-in-the-pan list.