Hard Lessons and Surprising Trends from the 2016 NFL Draft

Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. And those who do not learn from past drafts are doomed to be the Browns. 

With another dramatic, surprising, exhilarating, often baffling and sometimes heartbreaking NFL draft in the books, it's time to look at the big picture and take away some important lessons.

The following advice is directed at future NFL prospects. But much of what we learned can be applied to teams, the Draft Media Industrial Complex and hometown fans as well. We may not know this year's "winners and losers" for another five years, but a close look at the draft board shows us the direction that the NFL is taking—and what everyone from prospects to draftniks must do to adjust.

Lesson One: Defuse All Character Time Bombs Long Before the Draft

Is there an old video of you out there smoking marijuana through a trombone-shaped bong? Does anyone with an axe to grind have access to evidence of anything even semi-incriminating or humiliating? Don't get stuck in Laremy Tunsil's position. Control the message. Get the information out yourself, on your own terms, weeks before the draft starts.

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

That doesn't mean a prospect should post Phish concert tailgate videos himself. But an agent who knows what might be lurking on some conniver's smartphone or hard drive can discretely spread the word to teams, and the player himself can then state his case during interviews. A good agent can even leak a heads-up to the media to keep the televised pearl-clutching to a minimum if something embarrassing surfaces six hours before draft coverage begins.

It's fun to attack NFL teams for being stodgy/hypocritical in the wake of Tunsil's slide to the 13th pick, as if the rest of us would get promotions or medals from our employers for appearing in an Internet bong video.

The video had the same impact on front offices that a bachelor party video would have on a mother-in-law four hours before a wedding. Mothers-in-law know what happens at bachelor parties, but the video makes it immediate and visceral; given only 10 minutes to make a decision, she may well scream, "STOP THE WEDDING!"

It goes without saying there are things that should never be done on video in the first place, but this is 2016. If something is out there, someone is going to try to sell it to TMZ. Do everything possible to get ahead of the situation.

Lesson Two: Choose the Insurance Policy That's Best For You

The good news for Jaylon Smith and Myles Jack, the linebackers who fell to the top of the second round because of serious knee injuries, is that each took out an insurance policy against an injury-related draft slide.

The bad news is that not all insurance policies are created equal. From ESPN's Darren Rovell:

Jack's injury cost him millions of dollars in guarantees that his policy did not cover.

The injury-insurance system for college athletes is a boondoggle that combines the worst elements of the insurance industry and the NCAA bureaucracy. Experts have told me that the process needs to be simplified, streamlined and made more athlete-friendly.

Remember, the 20-year-olds trying to fill out complicated forms and determine how to pay pricey premiums—the NCAA, bless its benevolent soul, started letting them borrow against future earnings for loss-of-value plans a few years ago—are forbidden from doing the one thing any sensible person would do when taking out a massive insurance policy: consult an agent with expertise on professional sports finances.

Until the NCAA reforms its rules to make them less of a bureaucratic nightmare for student-athletes (pausing until the hysterical laughter subsides…there we are), prospects are on their own. So if you are already atop all of those 2017 mock drafts that appeared Monday morning, make sure you fill out that insurance paperwork carefully, find a trusted adult to look things over and get covered for as much as their services are worth.

Lesson Three: Be the Third Quarterback Drafted

Paxton Lynch went straight from just a big, strong-armed prospect with a lot to learn to Anointed Savior of the Super Bowl Champions by positioning himself squarely in the quarterback Goldilocks Zone.

Lynch wasn't good enough to coax the desperately confused (or confusedly desperate) Rams or Eagles to trade their inessential organs for him. But he wasn't bad enough to slip into the later rounds where the Jets and Browns were rummaging for bargains.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Lynch won't face pressure to be perfect like Jared Goff and Carson Wentz now face or get tossed into a quarterback controversy like Christian Hackenberg or Cody Kessler. He just has to hone his craft until he can outperform placeholder Mark Sanchez. His status as a "project" invites patience from coaches and fans. And his defense will win lots of 16-13 games for him when he does take the helm.

The third quarterback drafted doesn't always go on to great things. Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Teddy Bridgewater were the third quarterbacks in their drafts, but so were Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman, Brian Brohm and Blaine Gabbert. But there is something to be said to sliding down the first round until the stable organizations start selecting. Just ask Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers.

Lesson Four: If You Aren't a Great Prospect, Be a Great Project

Coaches are like that guy in your neighborhood who always has two or three rusty, old muscle cars on his lawn. They love to tinker, and the tougher the project, the more seductive they find it.

The Jets figure they can teach Hackenberg to play quarterback again while simultaneously tutoring Bryce Petty on the finer points of NFL strategy and subjecting Geno Smith to another year of public psychoanalysis. That's three summer projects for a team that would have been better off focusing on just getting one project done right.

They selected Hackenberg over prospects like Dak Prescott, Connor Cook and Jacoby Brissett, whose elevator pitches don't begin with "Pretend the last two years never happened."

The Seahawks have once again constructed their line out of king-sized fixer-uppers: Germain Ifedi (31st overall) and Rees Odhiambo (97th) are huge, talented, raw and mistake-prone blockers who won't be of much use to Russell Wilson in September. Sturdy, experienced linemen like Jason Spriggs (48th, Packers) and Joe Dahl (151st, Lions) were on the board when the Seahawks rolled the dice on less polished players.

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

On the defensive line, it was generally better to be a unique athlete with so-so production—the Chiefs drafted Chris Jones and his long arms 37th overall, sculpted but unimpressive Jihad Ward went 44th to the Raiders—than a polished 300-pounder without athletic "wow" factor like A'Shawn Robinson (46th, Lions), Jarran Reed (49th, Seahawks) or Sheldon Day (103rd, Jaguars).

At safety, mistake-prone workout monster T.J. Green (57th, Colts) left the board long before dependable, experienced teammate Jayron Kearse (244th, Vikings), who didn't crush all of the tape-measure tests.

By the later rounds, taking a flyer on a guy from the German Football League (Moritz Boehringer, 180th overall, Vikings), a Navy option quarterback (Keenan Reynolds, 182nd, Ravens) or a Baylor power forward (Rico Gathers, 217th, Cowboys) is much less risky.

Still, the quest for "upside" took teams to some strange places.

Boehringer is intriguing, but grabbing a guy from Germany when Kolby Listenbee and Kenny Lawler are on the board at the same position requires putting a lot of faith in measurables and your coaching staff's developmental powers.

Potential versus production is the age-old NFL draft dilemma. The 2016 draft saw the pendulum swing toward "potential." NFL teams expect to do a lot of teaching these days, even for "polished" prospects, so they have become less averse to gambling in search of greatness. Give scouting departments something to love, whether it's a flashy workout result or some great freshman tape, and they may love you right up the draft board.

Lesson Five: Fit the New Prototype, Not the Old One

Jalen Ramsey (fifth overall, Jaguars) is a cornerback/safety. Leonard Floyd (ninth, Bears) is a 6'6" defensive end/linebacker. Su'a Cravens (53rd, Redskins) is a safety/linebacker. These "What position does he play?" prospects often found themselves in greater demand than traditional position fits like Reggie Ragland (the draft's top pure middle linebacker, drafted 41st by the Bills) or Vonn Bell (free safety, 61st, Saints).

Old-fashioned scouting reports will criticize a cornerback/safety or safety/linebacker "tweener" as a man without a position. That negative is rapidly becoming a positive for NFL teams that play nickel defense as their base package.

A big safety like Keanu Neal (17th, Falcons) looks like a nickel linebacker to the NFL. A hard-hitting cornerback like Sean Davis (58th, Steelers) looks like a free safety who can slide down in man coverage. A huge linebacker like Floyd can line up all over as a wild card in a blitz package.

It's the "traditional" defenders who must worry, particularly if they aren't major-program stars like Ragland and Bell. They may fit a prototype, but it's an increasingly obsolete one.

Lesson Six: Attend a Postseason All-Star Game

You probably know that attending the Senior Bowl increases your chance of being compared to Aaron Donald (see Sheldon Rankins, whom the Saints took 12th overall), while turning down the invitation gets traditionalists all gossipy about your competitiveness (see Cook, 100th, Raiders). Wentz became the second pick in this year's class by showing off both his arm and his readiness in Mobile, Alabama, in January.

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The same idea applies to the less publicized all-star games. Javon Hargrave (89th overall, Steelers) and Graham Glasgow (95th overall, Lions) made Day 2 picks of themselves at the Shrine Game. For a small-school standout like Hargrave and a Big Ten plugger with shaky buzz like Glasgow, a week of competition in front of coaches and scouts can do a world of good.

The NFLPA Bowl may be the bronze-medal winner of collegiate all-star games, but participation still helped the stock of players like Ricardo Louis (114th, Browns), Jatavis Brown (175th, Chargers) and Prince Charles Iworah (249th, 49ers).

Yes, the bowls bring injury risks. But unless you are a shoo-in first-rounder, that week of high-level competition and intense scrutiny could mean the difference between a mid-round selection and no selection.

Lesson Number Seven: Attend Ohio State

Obviously, not every prospect can be like one of the 12 Ohio State players selected in the first four rounds of this year's draft. If you can't, be like Daniel Braverman (230th overall, Bears) and make sure you have a career game against Ohio State.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.