Will Cowboys Rookie Ezekiel Elliott Break the Top-5 Running Back Stigma?

The jury will remain out for years to come on most, if not all, of the 31 players selected in Thursday night's first round of the NFL draft. However, please take a moment to consider some recent NFL facts of life that explain why Ezekiel Elliott—taken fourth overall by the Dallas Cowboys—is just the second running back in the last eight years to be drafted in the top five.

First, the NFL doesn't run. The last four NFL seasons have been the most pass-heavy campaigns in league history. Teams passed a record 56.1 percent of the time in 2012, a record 56.6 percent of the time in 2013, a record 56.7 percent of the time in 2014 and a record 57.6 percent of the time in 2015. Ten years ago, in 2006, that rate was 53.2 percent.

Second, diamonds are ubiquitous in the running back rough. Less running doesn't necessarily mean teams don't need backs, but few are willing to spend premium draft picks on them. Why? Among the top 10 rushers over the last decade, five weren't first-round picks. Among the top 10 rushers over the last half-decade, only three were first-round picks. And since 2010, Adrian Peterson is the only first-round pick to lead the league in rushing.

Back	Yards	Round drafted
1. LeSean McCoy	5,970	2nd
2. Adrian Peterson	5,893	1st
3. Marshawn Lynch	5,774	1st
4. Frank Gore	5,626	3rd
5. Matt Forte	5,366	2nd
6. DeMarco Murray	5,228	3rd
7. Chris Johnson	4,844	1st
8. Alfred Morris	4,713	6th
9. Arian Foster	4,599	Undrafted
10. Jamaal Charles	4,276	3rd

Finally, two words: Trent Richardson

Only one other running back has been drafted in the top eight since 2009, and his name might as well be Busty McBusterson. Richardson, who the Cleveland Browns drafted third overall in 2012, averaged just 3.31 yards per carry between 2012 and 2014, which ranked second-last in football among backs with at least 10 starts during that span. Unsurprisingly, he spent the 2015 season out of the NFL entirely. That's sort of the definition of a cautionary tale, no?

Back	YPA	Round drafted	Picked
Rashard Mendenhall	3.24	1st	23rd
Trent Richardson	3.31	1st	3rd
Darren McFadden	3.34	1st	4th

It's possible the Cowboys have gone rogue, bucking a trend that saw no backs selected in the first round in 2013 and 2014. If anyone in this league is going to disregard common perception, it's Jerry Jones. The Cowboys owner infamously tried to draft Johnny Manziel two years ago, so it's possible the league's most entertainment-oriented executive simply insisted his team draft a flashy offensive player, regardless of that player's perceived value.

It also has to be considered that with league-leading rusher DeMarco Murray in 2014, the Cowboys won the NFC East and made a run that left them within reaching distance of the NFC Championship Game. Without a bell-cow back in 2015, the balance-challenged Cowboys lost star quarterback Tony Romo and won just four games.

Back	Year	Picked	Pro Bowls
Ezekiel Elliott	2016	4th	TBD
Trent Richardson	2012	3rd	0
Darren McFadden	2008	4th	0
Reggie Bush	2006	2nd	0
Ronnie Brown	2005	2nd	1
Cedric Benson	2005	4th	0
Cadillac Williams	2005	5th	0

But this isn't a totally isolated incident, and it might in fact be another clue that front offices are beginning to value running backs to a slightly larger extent.

The lingering stink left behind by Richardson and the Browns has started to dissipate, thanks partly to 2015 No. 10 overall pick Todd Gurley. The former Georgia back rushed for 125 yards on a tied-for-league-high five separate occasions despite starting only 12 games as a rookie with the St. Louis Rams.

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

And while mid/late-round picks and undrafted backs like Alfred Morris, Arian Foster, Justin Forsett and Jamaal Charles have been very productive for stretches (some of them long), it's worth noting the league's four leading rushers in 2015 were all first-round picks.

So are backs cool again? Cool enough for this to be more than an aberration?

A lot depends on whether Gurley, Elliott and 2015 No. 15 overall pick Melvin Gordon can deliver. If those guys come through, teams should become more comfortable drafting potential star backs very early.

So far so good with Gurley, and the great news for those hoping for a running back revolution is that Elliott's ceiling is just as high. The reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year scored 41 touchdowns while posting back-to-back 1,800-yard seasons to wrap up his three-year tenure at Ohio State. He's big (6'0", 225 pounds), fast (4.47-second 40-yard dash) and versatile (he's a workhorse runner who can already block and catch passes).

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

"I'm a balanced guy," Elliott said Thursday night, per ESPN.com's Todd Archer. "I wouldn't say I run one way. I think I run well inside the tackles. I think I run well outside the tackles. I think I've got good speed and I'm a physical guy too. I can make you miss. I think that I did a great job in college kind of developing on my weaknesses, and I think I'm a balanced runner."

It's not as though the Cowboys fell in love with a combine stud based on his measurables or his ability to run around pylons while wearing spandex, and it doesn't appear this is solely based on tape and/or numbers either.

There's no such thing as a perfect prospect, and Elliott's maturity could be lightly called into question, but there are very few legitimate reasons to believe that the 20-year-old—he's only 20!—won't become a star, especially while running behind a star-studded offensive line in Dallas. Elliott should be a beast on all three downs.

Back	School	Yards	YPA	TD
1. Ezekiel Elliott	Ohio State	3,699	6.6	41
2. Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	3,520	6.0	37
3. Derrick Henry	Alabama	3,209	5.7	39
4. Royce Freeman	Oregon	3,203	6.0	35

Philosophically, strategically and statistically, the NFL is cyclical. Thus, front offices might now be attempting to get ahead of the curve by revaluing running backs before offenses return to ground-and-pound attacks.

And it helps that under the new collective bargaining agreement, top-end first-round picks don't present the same financial hazards they did when teams were burned by dramatically overpriced rookies.

New CBA	Drafted	Year	Guaranteed $
Old CBA	Drafted	Year	Guaranteed $
Todd Gurley	10th	2015	9.4M
Trent Richardson	3rd	2012	20.5M
C.J. Spiller	9th	2010	20.8M
Darren McFadden	4th	2008	26.0M
Adrian Peterson	7th	2007	17.0M
Reggie Bush	2nd	2006	26.5M

But that mentality shift won't happen overnight, and backs will continue to have the shortest shelf lives in the game. Don't expect shades of 2005, when three backs were selected in the top five, or 2008, when five backs were selected in the first round, anytime soon.

Of course, this is also a copycat league. So if Elliott can promptly lead the Cowboys to a championship—something none of the other seven top-five backs drafted this century have been able to do—all bets are off.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon