Are Running Backs Regaining Favor in the NFL Draft?

In 2013, for the first time in NFL history, no team selected a running back in the first round of the draft. In 2014, it happened again. That was proof we weren't witnessing an aberration.

That trend is aligned with the continued evolution of the game. The 2014 season featured the second-most pass attempts per game in NFL history, ranking only behind the 2013 campaign. Those two seasons featured the two lowest per-game rushing attempt totals in NFL history.

In other words, the game has never been weighted so heavily in favor of passing.

Season	Passes/game	Runs/game	Pass %
2013	35.4	27.1	56.7
2014	34.9	26.7	56.6
2012	34.7	27.2	56.1
1995	34.8	27.5	55.9
2011	34.0	27.3	55.5
2010	33.7	27.2	55.4

The last time we had a running back taken with the first or second overall pick of the draft, it was 2006 (Reggie Bush). That year, 23 backs ran for 1,000 yards. Only 13 backs were able to hit that plateau in both 2013 and 2014—the lowest totals this century and a 43 percent drop-off from that '06 campaign.

Brad Gagnon

Teams also saw No. 3 overall pick Trent Richardson bust for the Cleveland Browns in 2012, which might have been a tipping point—especially with backs emerging left and right from the rough.

For instance, undrafted free agent Arian Foster rushed for more yards than anyone in the game except Adrian Peterson between 2010 and 2012, while sixth-round pick Alfred Morris rushed for more yards than anyone except Marshawn Lynch between 2012 and 2014.

Of the 13 backs who ran for 1,000 yards in 2014, only one (Lynch) was a first-round draft pick, and eight were still playing under their rookie contracts.

Based on wear and tear and their reliance on speed, backs also have football's shortest shelf lives, so it's easy to understand why teams stopped caring about them as much.

That's why Knowshon Moreno, coming off a 1,000-yard season in 2013, had to settle for a one-year, $3 million deal with the Miami Dolphins when the Denver Broncos let him walk last offseason.

It's also why Justin Forsett, who led the NFL with a yards-per-attempt average of 5.4 while rushing for 1,266 yards in a Pro Bowl 2014 campaign, is making the same salary as Moreno's 2014 sum under his new contract with the Baltimore Ravens.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Teams paid 10 kickers and nine punters as much or more in 2014.

The growing stigma regarding how highly—or lowly—the league has been valuing running backs relates closely to how often backs have helped teams win.

It's become all about quarterbacks, with guys named Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Brees winning every Super Bowl between 2003 and 2011, with a two-year break for Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson, who had a combined 14 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in seven playoff games during their teams' championship runs.

The running backs on those teams? Dudes like Antowain Smith, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw.

The 24 teams that have participated in the Super Bowl since 2002 have possessed a total of just six Pro Bowl running backs (Corey Dillon in 2004, Shaun Alexander in 2005, Ray Rice and Frank Gore in 2012, Marshawn Lynch in 2013 and Lynch again in 2014) and not a single Super Bowl champion this century has had a first-team All-Pro in the backfield.

Category	Quarterback	Running back
First-team All-Pros	5	2
Pro Bowlers	17	9

But maybe the leaguewide embargo on high-profile running backs is beginning to cool down. Maybe NFL general managers over-adjusted when they began taking even the best running back prospects off first-round draft boards and ignoring the top backs on the free-agent market.

In 2014, running backs made a bit of a comeback, with top rushers like Lynch, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Forsett, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, LeGarrette Blount, Jonathan Stewart and C.J. Anderson often carrying playoff teams.

"I feel like they think the running back spot is going extinct for some reason. (But) they definitely need us," said running back prospect Ka'Deem Carey ahead of last year's draft, per USA Today.

It appears they do. Murray, Bell, Anderson, Hill, Stewart and Forsett went over 150 rushing yards a combined 10 times in 2014, with their teams winning all 10 of those games.

Quarterback Tony Romo was still the biggest difference-maker for the Dallas Cowboys, but it's possible Dallas wouldn't have won the NFC East had it not been for Murray, who won Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league in rushing by a ridiculous 484-yard margin.

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was still the biggest difference-maker on the Pittsburgh Steelers, but it's possible they wouldn't have won the AFC North had it not been for Bell, who finished second in the league in rushing and who had 150-plus yards from scrimmage five times at the age of 22.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was still the key to success for the Green Bay Packers, but it's possible they wouldn't have fared so well had it not been for Lacy, who finished seventh in the league in rushing and put up 100-plus yards from scrimmage in each of the final nine games of the regular season at age 24.

You could also argue that Anderson, Stewart, Forsett and Hill bailed out slumping and/or inconsistent quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton to various degrees.

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Denver's Anderson was the league's leading rusher during the final seven weeks of the year, Carolina's Stewart had more rushing yards than everybody except Murray during the final six weeks, Baltimore's Forsett led the league in yards per attempt by a margin of almost one-third of a yard and Cincinnati's Hill was the league's top rusher during the second half of the regular season.

And then you have to look at the two Super Bowl teams, who probably wouldn't have been in Arizona on Feb. 1 if not for their battering ram running backs.

Not only did Seattle's Lynch lead all backs with 17 regular-season touchdowns while finishing fourth in the league in rushing, but he had 183 yards from scrimmage against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, helping the Seahawks punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

In the AFC Championship Game, Blount had 148 yards and three touchdowns for the Patriots as they pounded the Indianapolis Colts.

Ultimately, six of the league's top 10 rushers played for teams that made the playoffs. And that list doesn't even include Anderson or Blount.

That might partially explain why we're seeing an increase in talk about top-flight backs in this year's draft.

Bleacher Report draft expert Matt Miller has six running backs being drafted in the first two rounds—something that hasn't happened since 2010—including Todd Gurley at 17th overall. That projection becomes more impressive when you consider that Gurley is recovering from a torn ACL.

In fact, Yahoo Sports draft expert Greg Cosell recently suggested that the Georgia product might actually be the best prospect in the entire draft.

Back	School	Round	Pick
Todd Gurley	Georgia	1	17
Melvin Gordon	Wisconsin	2	37
Duke Johnson	Miami (Fla.)	2	42
Tevin Coleman	Indiana	2	54
T.J. Yeldon	Alabama	2	55
Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	2	64

Miller also seems to believe former Indiana back Tevin Coleman's stock is rising. Despite the fact that Coleman missed the NFL Scouting Combine due to a foot injury, Miller thinks Coleman could be selected early in the second round:

Meanwhile, Walter Football and CBSSports.com both have eight running backs projected to be drafted as early as Round 2. 

As Cosell points out, this year's running back class is clearly quite strong overall, which helps. But you have to wonder how much that would even matter to teams had recent high picks like Hill, Tennessee's Bishop Sankey, Bell and Lacy not performed as well as they did in 2014.

Running backs won't become draft studs again overnight, especially with this recent track record:

Back	Year/pick	Status
Trent Richardson	2012/3	Lowest YPC in NFL last 2 years
Doug Martin	2012/31	5th-lowest YPC during same span
David Wilson	2012/32	Out of football
Mark Ingram	2011/28	Yet to reach 1,000 yards
C.J. Spiller	2010/9	Has one 1,000-yard season out of five
Ryan Mathews	2010/12	One Pro Bowl, two 1,000-yard seasons
Jahvid Best	2010/30	Out of football
Knowshon Moreno	2009/12	Has one 1,000-yard season out of six
Donald Brown	2009/27	Backup in a new city; no 1,000-yard seasons
Beanie Wells	2009/31	Out of football

However, it does appear as though there's an opportunity now for NFL front offices to gain renewed confidence in a position that hasn't received a lot of love in recent years.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.