Is Christian Hackenberg Really Worth a 1st-Round Pick?

After suffering through a lackluster sophomore and junior campaign, Christian Hackenberg entered the draft process with much frustration from NFL scouts. He showed remarkable promise as a freshman under then-head coach Bill O’Brien but regressed the next two seasons at Penn State, transitioning his first-overall potential into real fear for NFL teams that he wouldn’t blossom into an NFL starter.

Despite his lackluster production and effectiveness at the helm of the Penn State offense, Hackenberg still may be a first-round quarterback in the 2016 NFL draft. His optimistic flashes and experience in a pro-style offense should intrigue teams enough to consider him a capable NFL game manager with the upside to be a franchise passer.

Reason for Optimism

Hackenberg hasn’t developed much since his freshman season, much to the chagrin of NFL evaluators. But that first-year promise hasn’t completely faded from his NFL scouting report. His mechanics and footwork have stifled his development, leading to errant throws and missed opportunities within the offense.

Losing O’Brien to the NFL inhibited Hackenberg’s growth and forced him to take on more of a game manager role for the offense. But the flashes he had as a freshman still reared their head on occasion during his junior season, particularly as a pocket passer.

As he showed throughout his game against Illinois, Hackenberg offers confidence and poise in the pocket. He was willing to take a hit during his tenure at Penn State, which was even more evident during his junior season as he suffered through poor offensive line play. When working in a straight dropback, Hackenberg reacts to outside pressure easily, transitioning to an upfield thrower and evading potential sacks. Despite suffering through one of the worst two-year stretches in the country in terms of sacks, Hackenberg has maintained effectiveness in navigating in the pocket and keeping his vision focused downfield.

It’s that pocket movement and confidence under pressure combined with an ideal body type and arm talent that has NFL teams excited. As a 6'4" passer with ample arm strength, Hackenberg has the in-pocket skill set to thrive in pro-style offenses, and his composure in the pocket and under pressure should give offensive coaches confidence that he can handle the NFL adjustment.

Pro-Style Offense Upside

Among the top quarterback prospects in the 2016 NFL draft, just Hackenberg and Michigan State’s Connor Cook have pro-style offense experience that should lead to an easy transition. Handling pre-snap responsibilities, blitz pickups and multiple play progressions as a freshman, Hackenberg’s mental aspect of the position on the field is likely unmatched by any quarterback in the country.

While the James Franklin-led offense stifled his growth mentally as a quarterback, Hackenberg’s experience managing a true NFL offense as a freshman in college can’t be underappreciated, and that pro-style experience flashed during his sophomore and junior season.

Penn State vs. Illinois

The play above highlights the pre-snap upside he possesses and continued to grow, despite poor coaching, during his time after O’Brien left the program. Working off play action, Hackenberg determined pre-snap that the perimeter comeback route, not the midfield breaking route that likely was the play design’s initial read, would be his throw after the run fake. Hackenberg takes perfect steps in his play-action build, stays balanced at the drop-step apex and finishes the outside throw for a big first down.

Penn State vs. UCF

Even when under substantial pressure, as he was persistently in the game against Temple, Hackenberg felt confidence with bodies around him and still worked upfield to evade tacklers. He struggled throughout the team’s loss to the Owls thanks to the six sacks suffered and poor offensive support at receiver and on the offensive line, but he still worked hard to elude pressure in the pocket and finish upfield throws, such as in the play above.

First-Round Worthy

Even after his flashes and pro-style upside, the question remains as to whether Hackenberg is worth a first-round pick. First round-graded quarterbacks need to not only manage an NFL offense but substantially maximize the offense’s skill position players more than the average NFL quarterback.

Hackenberg, in time and with more refined mechanical and footwork development, can do that. His on-field mental makeup and pro-style offense experience should allow him to adjust to the NFL smoothly and regain the momentum he flashed as a freshman.

He needs the right situation in the NFL to succeed. Whether that’s in Arizona behind Carson Palmer and under Bruce Arians' tutelage or in Denver where he can quickly grow into an NFL starter and take over for Mark Sanchez, teams in the back end of the first round could land a high-level quarterback. Once he’s mentally back to his freshman-season state of mind, Hackenberg could quickly become an NFL starter.

There’s ample reason to hate Hackenberg’s film. He was inaccurate, inefficient and ineffective as a starter this past season. But NFL teams are in the projection and upside business, not sticking to what a player has done in his college career. Hackenberg, at his best and based on his freshman-season offensive responsibilities, has all the signs of a franchise quarterback.

And while his film hasn’t looked the part of a first-round quarterback from this past season, it’s time to get on board with NFL teams’ interest and appreciate that the Penn State product will be a better pro than college player. He merits a first-round grade from more than a few NFL teams.