NFL Draft Projections 2016: Updated Order and 1st-Round Predictions

In the days leading up to 2016's NFL draft, teams have pressed pause on their game of first-round musical chairs.

Instead of waiting until draft day, the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns swapped picks Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, well before the clock officially started on Thursday evening. The early transactions forced draftniks to realize the folly of winter mock drafts sooner than expected, but it also gave everyone a chance to regroup and reset their projections.

Don't be surprised if more trades shake up the first round's seating arrangements, but the rumor mill has cooled down. Any other major trades will probably wait until Thursday night, giving NFL fans an opportunity to diagnose the current order.

Looking at the updated picture, here are some Round 1 predictions.

Pick #	Team
1	Los Angeles Rams
2	Philadelphia Eagles
3	San Diego Chargers
4	Dallas Cowboys
5	Jacksonville Jaguars
6	Baltimore Ravens
7	San Francisco 49ers
8	Cleveland Browns
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10	New York Giants
11	Chicago Bears
12	New Orleans Saints
13	Miami Dolphins
14	Oakland Raiders
15	Tennessee Titans
16	Detroit Lions
17	Atlanta Falcons
18	Indianapolis Colts
19	Buffalo Bills
20	New York Jets
21	Washington
22	Houston Texans
23	Minnesota Vikings
24	Cincinnati Bengals
25	Pittsburgh Steelers
26	Seattle Seahawks
27	Green Bay Packers
28	Kansas City Chiefs
29	Arizona Cardinals
30	Carolina Panthers
31	Denver Broncos

Round 1 Predictions

Ezekiel Elliott Falls Outside Top 10

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Last year, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon broke a growing trend of running backs vanishing from the first round altogether. Ezekiel Elliott will also turn the tides and have his name called Thursday night. The question is how high he will go.

According to Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, the Dallas Cowboys could snag him at pick No. 4 if owner Jerry Jones gets his way:

If the Cowboys drafted solely to please their owner, they would have selected Johnny Manziel over Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin in 2014. There's no need to take a running back so high after Dallas' offensive line guided Darren McFadden to an efficient 1,000-yard campaign. Scouts and executives with more extensive football knowledge should steer him to cornerback Jalen Ramsey or pass-rusher Joey Bosa. 

After Dallas, there's no obvious top-10 landing spot. The Philadelphia Eagles are no longer a possible destination after trading up to No. 2, but another NFC East squad is a feasible option.

The New York Giants could opt for an offensive playmaker after bolstering last year's bottom-rated defense in free agency. They're better off, however, building an offensive line to improve their ground game.

If Elliott lasts to pick No. 13, expect the Miami Dolphins to pounce. After losing free agent Lamar Miller to the Houston Texans, they signed C.J. Anderson to a lucrative offer sheet, but the Denver Broncos matched it. The move indicates a desire to locate another rusher alongside Jay Ajayi.

Unless someone trades up to leapfrog Miami, Elliott will slip outside the top 10.

No Wide Receiver Goes in the Top 20

As running backs become devalued, wide receivers have become a premium commodity. In each of the last two drafts, four wideouts went inside the top 20. This year, it's no guarantee any make the cut. 

There's no standout star in the 2016 class, which is led by the likes of Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman and Will Fuller. One NFC personnel director offered a brief and bleak assessment to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bob McGinn. 

"It's just a bad group," the director said. "There's not one sure thing."

Even though the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns and New York Giants could use a receiving upgrade, the top 10 is a reach for any of those wideouts. Sports Illustrated's Chris Burke sees Treadwell as the perfect red-zone target for the New Orleans Saints, who pick No. 12, but they're also littered with defensive holes.

Outside of the Titans, who would be better served taking a tackle if a worthwhile option is available, there are few logical destinations for a wideout in the teens. Without any future studs on the board, NFL teams searching for pass-catchers would be wise to wait. 

That leaves the top tier available for a grouping from Nos. 22-24. The Houston Texans need to lend star DeAndre Hopkins a helping hand. While many promising young options keep popping up (Cordarrelle Patterson, Charles Johnson), the Minnesota Vikings need someone who will stick. Even if it's not a desperate need, the Cincinnati Bengals are strong enough to target a No. 2 wideout to complement A.J. Green.

All three could start a run of wide receivers, but don't be surprised if Houston has its pick of them all. 

Noah Spence, Robert Nkemdiche Go on First Night

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

There's no tougher subset to peg than players with perceived character concerns. It's hard enough guessing how teams feel about a player's abilities and potential. When the dreaded "character" word gets dropped, all bets are off.

When evaluating Noah Spence, will scouts see a fierce edge-rusher or remember the Big Ten banning him after his second failed drug test? The defensive lineman has since owned up to his past use of ecstasy and made the most of his second chance at Eastern Kentucky.

Per NFL.com's Jeffri Chadiha, Spence talked about how his bumpy path has shaped his outlook leading up to the draft.

"

If none of this had happened, I'd probably be the kind of player who would be on his way out of the league in a few years. I wouldn't have become a better person, and my mind wouldn't be where it is today. I'm trying to write a new chapter in the story of my life after all of this. So I'm actually glad that all this stuff ended up happening to me.

"

Once a top-10 candidate, Robert Nkemdiche is now fighting for first-round inclusion. Back in December, he fell out the window of an Atlanta hotel, and police found marijuana inside the room. Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn publicly identified the Ole Miss defensive end as a "red-flag player," per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.

Anyone who read Seth Wickersham's ESPN.com feature will gain empathy for a free spirit facing a peculiar draft process. Those scared of lots of words only know the part where he said he wants to buy a pet panther. 

And yet, both prospects are tantalizing disruptors at a time where few skills are more highly desired. Also, it turns out people sometimes make mistakes in college. Both boast too much potential for someone in the latter half of Round 1 not to pounce.