Indianapolis Colts' Last-Minute 7-Round Mock Draft and Top-100 Big Board
The final push to the NFL draft is here.
Just hours remain before teams will begin the last and most crucial phase to their offseason roster additions. The use of the word "crucial" there is an understatement. This is a chance for teams to add youth, and with the draft being as random as it often is, every team has a chance to add elite talent.
Can your team add the next Tom Brady? The next T.Y. Hilton or Keenan Allen? The next Ray Lewis or Robert Mathis?
For the Indianapolis Colts, adding blue-chip talent is a must. It's been too long since the team added such talent, and it showed with an 8-8 campaign last season, although injuries to quarterback Andrew Luck were an enormous factor there.
Now, the Colts have their first top-20 pick—excluding the Luck pick in 2012—since 2002. The previous six top-20 picks for Indianapolis included Marvin Harrison, Tarik Glenn, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Dwight Freeney and Luck. Will this year produce another Pro Bowler? Another future Hall of Famer?
Top-100 Big Board
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This big board contains the top 100 players Indianapolis should target early in the 2016 draft. This won't include every player. The Colts aren't drafting Cal quarterback Jared Goff. But this should include any player/position the Colts could be targeting, ranked in order.
Round 1
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Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
I'm sticking with the consensus here, as the Colts have consistently been linked to Kelly over the last few days. It started with Bleacher Report's Matt Miller indicating that team officials love Kelly as a player, and that center was the first target among offensive line draft picks.
"If you want Ryan Kelly, you'd better get in front of the #Colts.
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) April 28, 2016"
Since then, he's been mocked to the Colts by well-sourced Mike Mayock of NFL Network, linked to the Colts by Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and been the subject of endless Twitter speculation.
It would be great to see the Colts go for a home run pick on the defensive side here, but Kelly would be a solid pick with little bust potential. For a team with needs everywhere, sometimes you need to get a long-term starter when you can.
Kelly could certainly be that, with potential to be one of the better centers in the league. He understands angles, is aware of stunts and blitzes and has one of the better athletic profiles in this center class. This would fill a need, and would do so for a long time. The Colts don't have to go offensive line with their first pick, but if they do, Kelly is the best choice, barring a free fall by one of the top two tackles.
Round 2
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Kamalei Correa, EDGE, Boise State
If the Colts are unable to snag an edge player in the first round, they have to look at finding a potential pass-rusher on Day 2, and Kamalei Correa could compete with anybody who might land in those rounds.
The Boise State junior had just seven sacks and 11 tackles for a loss this season, but he did lead Boise State in that department and had an incredible sophomore season with 19 tackles for a loss and 12 sacks. Certainly, the loss of Demarcus Lawrence opposite him hurt, but Correa has as much pass-rush potential as anybody in the draft.
According to Zach Whitman of Three Sigma Athlete, Correa finished the predraft process with a SPARQ score of 123.7, which places him in the 62nd percentile among edge players in the NFL, similar to the score of Joey Bosa and ahead of players like Noah Spence, Shilique Calhoun and Kevin Dodd.
While Correa does have a ton of potential, he is still raw. His quick-twitch athleticism is not complemented by efficient hand usage, limiting his effectiveness at times, and he doesn't have prototypical strength. Still, Correa's athletic traits are ones that the Colts desperately need at outside linebacker, and some of the more nuanced aspects of the position could come later.
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Round 3
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Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech
While fans might not be happy with an offensive skill player this high in the draft, they need to get on board with the team taking their running back of the future in the next few days.
Frank Gore has two more years left on his contract, but Father Time is coming for him sooner rather than later, and the team desperately needs to add some youth and speed to the running back room. The team added Josh Robinson late in the draft last year, and the lack of speed hurt the former Mississippi State product.
The Colts need somebody who can contribute both as a runner and electric playmaker in the passing game, and that's Dixon to a T. Pro Football Focus' Matt Claassen provided a deeper look:
"Kenneth Dixon's 2.28 yards per route run led the RB class.
— Matt Claassen (@PFF_Matt) April 25, 2016"
His scouting report & 150+ others https://t.co/BjJBzHgzvV pic.twitter.com/PieoofRwjP
Dixon's lateral agility and short-area quickness are incredible, even if his long speed is lacking (4.58-second 40-yard dash). With the moves to match in the open field, the Colts would be happy to get a player of his caliber at this point in the draft. Even with a relatively slight frame (215 pounds), Dixon is an angry runner who excels at getting yards after contact.
The Colts might have to move into the second round to get Dixon, but with running backs, it's anybody's guess as to when the run will start. Dixon might be the second-best back in the class after Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott, so if he's there in the third round, the team would do well to pull the trigger.
Round 4
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Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State
If you're looking for an inside linebacker in the middle or later rounds of the draft, you are looking for two things: production and athleticism. Linebackers with great athleticism usually get snatched up quickly in this day and age, and if a player can't be productive in college at linebacker, it's going to be difficult to do so in the NFL.
Nick Vigil of Utah State checks those boxes, with a SPARQ high enough to be in the 61st percentile in the NFL, the only above-average athlete at the position that projects to go on Day 3 (unless LSU's Deion Jones slips down). Vigil has also had 267 tackles, 30 for a loss, over the last two seasons at Utah State, so he's clearly not just a great athlete.
He's relatively slight for a linebacker, weighing in right at the 240-pound mark, but adding 10 pounds in an NFL weight program would make him an ideal size. Remember, Jerrell Freeman was right at that 240 mark as well, and actually came to Indianapolis out of the CFL weighing closer to 220.
Instincts and an ability to cover and tackle well are more important for that three-down linebacker spot the Colts have to fill, and Vigil certainly has that.
Round 5
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Kevin Byard, S, Middle Tennessee
If the Colts have yet to address their secondary by Round 5, they need to look that direction. Having lost Greg Toler and Dwight Lowery in free agency, with mostly unproven players in their stead, the Colts have holes to fill.
This late in the draft, I'm keeping an eye out for Middle Tennessee's Kevin Byard, a well-built safety with versatility to play in the box or over the top, just how the Indianapolis coaches like them. Byard is a playmaker, snagging 19 interceptions over the last four years, including four touchdowns.
Byard's football instincts are stellar, and when matched with a well-versed familiarity of route combinations (he was a high school wide receiver), he makes for a strong coverage safety. Whether it's reading the quarterback, reading the receiver or timing his jumps, Byard has all the instincts in coverage you need for a ball-hawking safety.
There were some concerns about his play speed coming out of Middle Tennessee, but he put those at ease with a 4.44 40-yard dash at his pro day and finished with average testing across the board compared to NFL safeties.
Round 7
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Mitch Mathews, WR, BYU
I'm convinced the Colts will add a wide receiver at some point in this draft, as Quan Bray is filling the fourth wide receiver role on the depth chart. What the Colts could use in the wide receiver room is size, and Mitch Mathews out of BYU certainly has that.
At 6'5", Mathews has the size to win jump balls in the end zone, and has 20 touchdowns over the last two years to prove it. His big frame means a huge catch radius, and he uses that frame well with a natural catching motion.
There is some refining to do here, of course. Mathews doesn't use his body and size as well as he could to box defenders out, and he's not an elusive athlete in the field, with his acceleration taking a touch longer than it should.
There were some concerns about Mathews' athleticism, but the BYU senior had a 4.47-second 40-yard dash and 10'9" broad jump at his pro day, and finished testing with a SPARQ in the 81st percentile. If the Colts can develop him at all, he'd be a scary complement to their current receiving group.
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