Predicting the Biggest Suitors for Reggie Nelson, NFL's Best Remaining FA Safety

Nine-year veteran Reggie Nelson was one of the top safeties in the entire NFL during the 2015 season, and he is easily the best safety remaining in this year's free-agent market.

How is it that a guy who racked up 77 tackles and eight interceptions is still unemployed nearly a month after the start of free agency? Well, the surface answer seems to be that Nelson's age—he will turn 33 shortly after the start of the 2016 season—has teams hesitating to offer a long-term deal. For Nelson, who is about to enter his 10th professional season, security is likely of high importance.

At some point between now and the start of the 2016 season, however, Nelson is going to find a new home. Whichever team lands him is going to be getting a heck of a player and potentially one of the biggest steals of free agency.

Today, we're going to take a look at what, exactly, makes Nelson such a valuable player. We're also going to look at a handful of NFL teams that would be solid fits for the Florida product—teams that could end up filled with regret should Nelson end up elsewhere in the coming season.

Why Reggie Nelson?

Nelson has played nine professional seasons and is firmly in the back half of his career at 32 years old. However, he entered free agency as one of the bigger names on the market because of his reliability, productivity and consistency. ProFootballTalk.com ranked Nelson at No. 32 on its Free Agent Hot 100 list.

Now that we're less than a month way from the 2016 NFL draft, Nelson might be the top overall free agent still unsigned. Michael Renner of Pro Football Focus certainly seems to think so. He recently put Nelson at No. 1 on a list of the top eight remaining free agents.

Why is Nelson such a commodity? Well, we already mentioned his reliability, consistency and productivity—attributes that are supported by raw numbers. Nelson has started every regular-season game over the past two seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals, missed only three games since arriving in Cincinnati in 2010 and missed only six regular-season games in his nine-year career.

John Grieshop/Getty Images

Nelson has also racked up at least 65 tackles in each of the past five seasons and has only one pro season on his resume without at least two interceptions. Nelson has 12 interceptions over the past two years.

While Nelson has always been a tremendous back-end defender, he has emerged as a true ball hawk over the past few seasons. His efforts were good enough to earn Nelson a Pro Bowl appearance this past season and a rating of 13th overall among all safeties from Pro Football Focus.

Instinct, field vision and experience have allowed Nelson to become a true game-changer at the safety position—and he changed the course of many games in 2105.

Take Cincinnati's Week 8 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, for example. Nelson came away with two interceptions during the 16-10 victory, which helped the Bengals tremendously on their way to an AFC North title.

If not for Nelson, the Bengals easily might have lost that game and their edge in the division.

If we take a look at Nelson's first interception from the Week 8 contest (which can be viewed via NFL.com here), we can get an idea of exactly how much he can impact the game as a deep center-field defender.

Early in the third quarter with Pittsburgh up 7-6, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger wound up and delivered a deep shot to wide receiver Antonio Brown. Nelson, however, read and reacted to the play perfectly, putting him in position to make a play. Brown has a few steps on his man, and he would have had a clear path to the end zone if not for Nelson.

Not only did Nelson prevent a sure touchdown, but he jumped directly into the path of the pass and came down with his first interception of the day. Remember, he did this same thing eight times in 2015.

Nelson might be an aging player, as far as defensive backs are concerned. However, he sees the field and anticipates the play like only a longtime NFL veteran can. According to Pro Football Focus, opposing quarterbacks had a cumulative passer rating of just 61.8 when testing Nelson in 2015. He would be an asset for virtually any defense.

Where Could Nelson Go?

Now that we've established why Nelson is one of the best defensive players, signed or unsigned, to enter free agency this offseason, let's take a look at the teams that could—or at least should—be considering his services in 2016.

We'll start with the Bengals, who have employed Nelson for the past six seasons. Nelson has helped lead Cincinnati to the postseason in each of the past five years, so it would make sense for the Bengals to bring this playoff piece back for another run or two.

According to Coley Harvey of ESPN.com, the Bengals do have interest in re-signing Nelson, but the sides aren't close to a deal.

"In any situation both parties have to agree to agree," Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said, per Harvey. "And we just haven't agreed to agree with Reggie yet."

Returning to Cincinnati would make sense for Nelson, as this is a team and a system in which he has proven he can thrive.

Player	2015 Team	2016 Team
Tashaun Gipson	Browns	Jaguars
Eric Weddle	Chargers	Ravens
Isa Abdul-Quddus	Lions	Dolphins
Rodney McLeod	Rams	Eagles
Michael Griffin	Titans	Vikings
Rahim Moore	Texans	Browns
Dwight Lowery	Colts	Chargers
Reggie Nelson	Bengals	???

If Nelson and the Bengals cannot get a deal done in the near future, that other Ohio team in the AFC North should strongly consider making a push for him. The Cleveland Browns have made it clear this offseason that the team wants to build through the draft, but there is a serious need at the free safety position that Nelson could fill.

Cleveland lost starter Tashaun Gipson on the first day of free agency.

By going to Cleveland, Nelson would have the opportunity to stay in the AFC North and play for a coach with whom he is familiar. New Browns head coach Hue Jackson spent the past two seasons as Cincinnati's offensive coordinator.

Another team that should strongly consider Nelson based on need is the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders recently lost star safety Charles Woodson to retirement.

Woodson, who played at the age of 39, thrived in Oakland's defense in 2015. He racked up 74 tackles, five interceptions and a forced fumble in his final season. Nelson could likely put up very similar numbers and could have a similar late-career surge with the rapidly improving Raiders.

The San Diego Chargers, who lost safety Eric Weddle in free agency, should also be considering Nelson. The two players are very similar in skill set, age (Weddle is 31) and playing experience (both nine-year veterans).

The difference for the Chargers is that Nelson may be a much more affordable option. The Baltimore Ravens coughed up $26 million with $13 million guaranteed to secure Weddle for four seasons.

If Nelson is looking to pursue a coaching connection, he might want to think about joining former Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have Harrison Smith at the free safety position, but Zimmer could likely find room for Nelson in the defensive backfield.

Nelson would, of course, have to deal with the possibility of being a mere role player in Minnesota, but the Vikings are a playoff-caliber team and would offer the veteran postseason opportunities.

Finally, we have to look at the Miami Dolphins. This is probably more of a long shot, as the Dolphins already added free safety Isa Abdul-Quddus this offseason.

Abdul-Quddus was rated just a few spots below Nelson (19th overall) among safeties by Pro Football Focus in 2015. However, Max Himmelrich of NFL.com and The Phinsider believes Nelson could be a realistic option if the price is right:

"

Reggie Nelson is still a free agent. If the price continues to drop, would not be surprised to see him reunite with Vance Joseph in Miami.

— Max Himmelrich (@HimmelrichNFL) March 25, 2016"

A return to Florida could be enticing for Nelson. He played both his high school and college ball there.

Final Prediction

Nelson is a highly-productive, game-changing safety, so he should be able to select the next stage of his career. While landing the most lucrative deal possible may be a goal for him, Nelson should also want to maximize his opportunities to win as his career winds down.

This is why rebuilding or restructuring teams like the Browns and Chargers isn't likely to entice Nelson unless they do so with dollars. Unless making a return to Florida is really important to Nelson, the Dolphins are likely in this category as well.

If we have to guess (and that's kind of the entire point here), we see Cincinnati, Oakland and Minnesota as the most likely destinations for Nelson in 2016. All three of these teams should allow Nelson to taste some postseason atmosphere during the next stage of his career.

Nelson, in return, can push his next employer even closer to postseason glory.