2016 NFL Mock Draft: Latest 1st-Round Projections for Boom-or-Bust Prospects

It's easy to study NFL drafts years later and ridicule teams for not knowing better. Without the benefit of hindsight, the difference between a stud and a dud is much tougher to decipher.

A mountain of outside factors—most of which remain unknown to an outside observer—impact every prospect's career trajectory. Will he go to the right team with the right scheme for his abilities? Will the coaches' teaching styles suit his personality? Are the city and organization fostering a positive environment for a young man catapulting out of college and into the real world?

Nobody knows what the Jacksonville Jaguars thought they knew when they took Blaine Gabbert over J.J. Watt five years ago. Alter one or two minor details, and perhaps Gabbert morphs into an above-average starting quarterback rather than another cautionary tale. Just don't pretend nobody outside of Jacksonville's front office bought into the hype at the time.

Perhaps these following guys will be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, or maybe they'll be out of the league in five years. Such seismic uncertainty exists every year with a handful of boom-or-bust prospects. Contrary to popular belief, nobody holds all the answers now.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tennessee Titans	Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
2	Cleveland Browns	Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
3	San Diego Chargers	Jalen Ramsey, S/CB, Florida State
4	Dallas Cowboys	Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
6	Baltimore Ravens	Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
7	San Francisco 49ers	Jared Goff, QB, California
8	Philadelphia Eagles	Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
10	New York Giants	Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
11	Chicago Bears	Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
12	New Orleans Saints	Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
13	Miami Dolphins	Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
14	Oakland Raiders	Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
15	Los Angeles Rams	Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
16	Detroit Lions	A'Shawn Robinson, DE/DT, Alabama
17	Atlanta Falcons	Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
18	Indianapolis Colts	Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
19	Buffalo Bills	Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss
20	New York Jets	Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
21	Washington	Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
22	Houston Texans	Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
23	Minnesota Vikings	Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
26	Seattle Seahawks	Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
27	Green Bay Packers	Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech
29	Arizona Cardinals	Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
30	Carolina Panthers	Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
31	Denver Broncos	Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects

Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

Bruce Crummy/Associated Press

Carson Wentz has rocketed up draft boards, making the FCS standout a possible candidate for the No. 1 pick if the Tennessee Titans trade down. Even if the 23-year-old quarterback is relatively polished for an incoming passer, an inflated price makes anyone in his situation a high-risk, high-reward gamble.

Listed at 6'5" and 237 pounds by NFL.com, Wentz fits the proper prototype for an NFL quarterback. He has also dazzled scouts with arm strength and athleticism throughout offseason activities, most recently earning rave reviews at North Dakota State's pro day.

"I really wanted to go out and show the athleticism that I possess—the ability to throw on the run, throw in awkward platforms and still deliver an accurate football," Wentz said, per ESPN.com's Ben Goessling. "Overall, I thought that showed through."

His meteoric rise draws parallels to Jacksonville Jaguars signal-caller Blake Bortles, but scouts and analysts are reaching even higher with their player comparisons. On Saturday, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller listed a few of the loftiest ones he noticed:

No pressure—just live up to highly successful No. 1 overall picks and Super Bowl champions. And that's before knowing where he'll start his career.

Formerly a sure bet to select a quarterback with the No. 2 pick, the Cleveland Browns could have second thoughts after signing Robert Griffin III. Yet if new management agrees with the hype, it should snag Wentz anyway and let him learn the ropes while the former Washington signal-caller tries to revive his career.

Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

In his latest mock draft, ESPN Insider Todd McShay moved Eastern Kentucky's Noah Spence to the second round, saying his off-field past was "giving teams pause." The former Ohio State pass-rusher failed two drug tests, prompting the Big Ten to ban him.

Spence's past mistakes could blind some teams from appreciating his redemption. Rather than jumping to the NFL after the ban, he transferred to Eastern Kentucky and notched 11.5 sacks. 

As detailed last year by Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman, Spence entered a drug-treatment program and urged his new school to test him regularly. He spoke candidly of his recovery from addiction to Feldman:

"

I just want to show the world that I am a better person than when I left Ohio State. I used to say to my dad that everybody that's real good in the NFL always seems like they have a story and I don't have one. I guess now this is my story. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, and my situation has definitely made me stronger. I sit back and think about my life before I do anything. Before, everything that I did was off impulse.

"

An NFL squad should follow the Colonels' lead and give Spence a second chance. Given the edge-rusher's immense strength (6'2", 251 lbs) and speed (4.80-second 40-yard dash), that opportunity for teams shouldn't remain available after the opening round.

He's the precise talent pro teams salivate over. Had his college years gone differently off the gridiron, he would merit top-10 or perhaps even top-five consideration. Instead, someone in the 15-25 range can pounce. The Indianapolis Colts' 26th-ranked defense could use a pass-rushing punch, and Spence is worth the risk at No. 18.

Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi

Thomas Graning/Associated Press

Once foreseen as a potential No. 1 pick, Robert Nkemdiche is no longer a first-round lock.

The Mississippi defensive tackle's stock has plummeted since he was charged for marijuana possession after falling out of a hotel window in December. Ole Miss suspended him for the Sugar Bowl, which would have been his final game with the school.

While he impressed at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, his raw talent didn't always manifest itself on the field. Before his junior season ended in unceremonious fashion, the hulking tackle (6'3", 294 lbs) collected 29 tackles and three sacks.

In February, an anonymous evaluator predicted a steep fall for Nkemdiche to Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson.

"That's a guy that I could see having a little bit of a plummet," he said. "He's not in a weak class [at defensive tackle], and there is a lot of [off-field] stuff there to get through. … He may not end up being a first-round pick."

Players with off-field transgressions often drop, but not too far. There's usually someone willing to ignore perceived character issues, instead capitalizing on a discounted talent with tremendous upside. 

Without any cap space to address a disappointing defense, the Buffalo Bills are a prime candidate to take the plunge at No. 19. Defensive-minded head coach Rex Ryan will likely eye reinforcements for a line that relinquished 4.4 yards per carry last season, and he can harness the most of Nkemdiche's limitless ceiling.