NFL Predictions Week 17: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule

Week 17 won't match its predecessor's Red Sunday, where unsuspected underdogs slayed prominent postseason contenders.

A perfect season for the Carolina Panthers? Nope. The undermanned New England Patriots continuing to outsmart the opposition and lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed? Not quite.

But obviously the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks—two of the hottest NFL teams entering Week 16—enacted revenge on division foes in the Baltimore Ravens and St. Louis Rams, respectively, for losses incurred earlier in the season. Wait, they didn't? The NFL makes no sense.

Aside from the Arizona Cardinals and the Kansas City Chiefs, there are no more favorites left to knock down a peg. Yet Week 16's biggest winner must beware of a heartbreaking letdown after withstanding its toughest challenge yet. Now that every team's postseason motivations—or lack thereof—are clear, let's take a look at the final weekend's odds, provided by Odds Shark. 

Away	Home	Odds	Prediction
New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -4	31-28 ATL
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	NYJ -3	24-23 BUF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers	CAR -11.5	23-20 CAR
Detroit Lions	Chicago Bears	Even	24-21 DET
Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -9	23-13 CIN
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	PIT -11	33-13 PIT
Washington Redskins	Dallas Cowboys	WAS -4	14-12 WAS
Jacksonville Jaguars	Houston Texans	HOU -6.5	28-26 HOU
Tennessee Titans	Indianapolis Colts	IND -6	20-17 IND
Oakland Raiders	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -7.5	23-14 KC
New England Patriots	Miami Dolphins	NE -11.5	30-20 NE
Philadelphia Eagles	New York Giants	NYG -3	34-31 NYG
Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -7.5	30-24 ARI
San Diego Chargers	Denver Broncos	DEN -9.5	20-13 DEN
St. Louis Rams	San Francisco 49ers	STL -3	17-15 STL
Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	GB -3	27-24 MIN

Upset of the Week: Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. New York Jets

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

The New York Jets just achieved their biggest win of the year, upsetting the Patriots in overtime on Sunday. If they beat the Buffalo Bills, they're in the playoffs. Don't book their flight just yet.

New York better turn to last weekend as a precautionary tale. A popular Super Bowl prediction a week ago, the Steelers and Seahawks both suffered losses to unassuming division rivals who beat them earlier this season. 

Unlike Baltimore and St. Louis, the Bills don't have a cavalcade of injuries or a one-man offense. They're also the only team with a losing record (7-8) and positive point differential (plus-15). Two important scheduling differences derailed their playoff chances. 

While the Jets got the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills, the Bills received the Cincinnati Bengals and Chiefs. They also lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles and fell to No. 20 in total defense, so they're far from blameless victims.

They're not, however, an automatic victory. Instead, they're a bitter, angry team with nothing to lose. Misery loves company, which explains why running back Anthony "Boobie" Dixon described the opportunity to ruin the Jets' playoff hopes as his "Super Bowl," per ESPN.com's Mike Rodak:

"

We got something to play for now. We've been having something to play for—that's our respect and our pride. We always want that. But to send them home packing—that would be great. We're not going to the playoffs, so the Super Bowl is next week for us. I know we're gonna have a lot of guys jacked. We already know what's on the line.

"

The Narrative Machine is overheating for this clash. Head coach Rex Ryan savored his old team's misery after Week 10's 22-17 win like he won the actual Super Bowl. From his celebration, one could have thought the Bills at least clinched a playoff berth while also trading for Tom Brady and J.J. Watt.  

There's also revenge and payback to inflict on the other side. New York quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will close out his career year at Buffalo, where he resided during four underwhelming seasons. He admitted to some added significance, per ESPN's Rich Cimini:

In Week 10, the veteran passer went 15-of-34 for 193 yards, two scores and two picks. He has since averaged 290.2 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Most impressively, he has avoided an interception in four of his last five bouts.

That's an atypical stretch for someone who has surrendered 113 picks over 111 career games. Also lost in the passing brilliance, running back Chris Ivory has compiled 42 yards in consecutive games. Bilal Powell, who didn't play against Buffalo the first time, must help avoid the upset.

In a battle of strengths, the Bills' top-ranked rushing attack will likely operate without LeSean McCoy. He proved an instrumental part of their earlier win over the Jets, gaining 159 total yards. Yet the ground game has functioned fine in his absence, registering 236 rushing yards against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend.

Buffalo's triumph over New York wasn't an upset at the time. While the Jets are rightfully favored for Sunday, not everyone agrees. 

ESPN's Football Power Index gives Buffalo a 52.1 percent chance of victory. Maybe the defense will remember it's a supremely talented Ryan-led unit. Perhaps Fitzpatrick's inconsistencies will return at the worst possible moment, reminding everyone that he's absolutely, unequivocally not an MVP candidate. 

Last weekend shattered the mirage of momentum, sending soaring squads to their knees shortly after gaining signature wins. The Jets are hot now, and they finally submitted a significant triumph. Some regression to the mean on both sides, however, should send this meaningful matchup down to the wire.

That's when anything can happen—even something like an average team upsetting an above-average club playing over its head.