NFL Week 16 Picks: Expert Predictions and Advice for Latest Vegas Odds

In defeating the Miami Dolphins 30-14 in Week 15, the San Diego Chargers and their fans got a proper, cathartic release in a (probable) final bow at old Qualcomm Stadium. Retiring wideout Malcom Floyd received a video tribute, Eric Weddle had time alone with his thoughts and fans got plenty of autographs after the game.

Considering the Chargers got what they wanted in that contest, it's perhaps fair that they couldn't go on to spoil what could be the Oakland Raiders' final game at the O.co Coliseum. In what is definitely his final appearance at the Black Hole, ageless defensive back Charles Woodson helped his team to a 23-20 overtime win over its hated rivals. 

The emotions were certainly high in Oakland, and there will likely be plenty more free-flowing emotions in Week 16 with postseason hopes at stake for several teams.

Should passion and sentiment butt your own analysis heading into the rest of the Week 16 gamut, here's a look at what lines the cool-headed oddsmakers are coming up with for each game, along with some expert predictions from around the web. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Friday, December 25, at 7 a.m. ET. All expert predictions are straight-up, not against the spread.

Matchup (w/ spread)	Mike Freeman, Bleacher Report	Mike Garafolo, Fox Sports	Pete Prisco, CBS Sports	Merril Hoge, ESPN	Stephen White, SB Nation	Chris Wesseling, NFL.com
Washington vs. Philadelphia (-3)	WAS	PHI	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS
Carolina (-7) vs. Atlanta	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR
Dallas vs. Buffalo (-7)	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF
San Francisco vs. Detroit (-10.5)	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
Cleveland vs. Kansas City (-12)	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC
Indianapolis vs. Miami (-2.5)	IND	MIA	MIA	MIA	IND	MIA
New England (-3) vs. New York Jets	NE	NE	NE	NYJ	NE	NE
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (-3)	TB	CHI	TB	TB	TB	TB
Houston vs. Tennessee	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU
Pittsburgh (-11.5) vs. Baltimore	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
Jacksonville vs. New Orleans	JAX	JAX	NO	JAX	JAX	JAX
Green Bay vs. Arizona (-4.5)	GB	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI
St. Louis vs. Seattle (-14.5)	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA
New York Giants vs. Minnesota (-6)	NYG	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN
Cincinnati vs. Denver (-3)	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN

Note: Predictions courtesy of Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, ESPN.com, NFL.com and SB Nation.

Advice on Week 16 Vegas Odds

Now Is Not the Time to Bet Against Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Steelers should trounce Baltimore on Sunday. Sure, Baltimore beat Pittsburgh 23-20 in Week 4, but their respective situations are vastly different in Week 16. The Steelers have scored at least 30 points in each of their last six games, going 5-1 in that stretch. 

Ben Roethlisberger is having an easy time picking defenses apart with the twin terrors of wide receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant making mincemeat of opposing cornerbacks (Markus Wheaton is pretty good, too). Against a tough Broncos defense in Week 15, Roethlisberger threw for 382 yards, three touchdowns and two picks. Brown was essentially playing football all by his lonesome, tallying 16 receptions for 189 yards and two scores.

Broncos corner Chris Harris Jr., one of the best in the league at his craft, had no answer for Brown. This was unusual for Harris but perhaps expected from Brown, per Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman:

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NFL Network reporter Aditi Kinkhabwala told Brown that Chris Harris, the corner for the Broncos, hadn't given up a touchdown in coverage for two years. Brown beat him twice. Brown seemed surprised, but he shouldn't have been. There isn't a corner Brown can't beat.

Brown said the Broncos were the toughest defense the Steelers faced all year. And he torched them. Imagine what he would do against almost any other defense in the AFC (including Kansas City's).

This is how you stop Brown, this generation's Jerry Rice: Bring an alien armada. Of androids. Throw in The Avengers.

Then cross your fingers.

"

Running back DeAngelo Williams—one of the league's great surprises this season in replacing an injured Le'Veon Bell—has slowed a bit as of late in the rushing game, and yet he's still scoring touchdowns. 

Pittsburgh's defense hardly resembles the smashmouth, intimidating units of so many years past. This is hardly a problem, as injuries have gutted Baltimore's offense. Wide receiver Steve Smith has been out since early November. Rookie back Buck Allen is starting in place of an injured Justin Forsett. A promising player, Allen is nevertheless averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this season. 

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Joe Flacco is also out for the season, and the Ravens could start any one of Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Mallett or Matt Schaub in this game, per the Baltimore Sun's Jon Meoli and Jeff Zrebiec. Mallett hasn't yet played for Baltimore after Houston released him earlier this season, while both Clausen and Schaub have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season.

At 9-5, Pittsburgh is fighting with Kansas City and the New York Jets for the two AFC wild-card spots. Both the Jets and Chiefs are also 9-5. There can be no letdown for the Steelers. Baltimore has nothing to play for at this point, of course.

Forget the typical gritty, clunky AFC North rivalry game projections. Look for the Steelers to overwhelm the Ravens in their furious playoff push. 

Arizona Will Beat Green Bay by a Touchdown

Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

It's been several weeks since the football world has seen Aaron Rodgers go supernova—for a full game at least, not just a miracle play. Rodgers has thrown eight touchdowns against three picks in the last five games. He's been held under 225 passing yards in four of those games. 

Unless Rodgers and his thin receiving corps can find it in themselves to consistently beat a tough Cardinals defense, Arizona has the requisite firepower to win this home game by at least a touchdown, covering the spread as a result. 

Green Bay can find some hope in that the Cardinals' brilliant slot cornerback, Tyrann Mathieu, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Cornerback Patrick Peterson wasn't afraid to say how much of a blow that was to the defense, per ESPN's Josh Weinfuss: 

Still, the Packers might not have quite the right personnel to take advantage of Mathieu's absence. Peterson can always stick on James Jones or Randall Cobb like glue, leaving Rodgers with one less blue-chip option to work with. Tight end Richard Rodgers often disappears from games, forcing Aaron to look to the flanks. Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel detailed how Green Bay can struggle to take what defenses are giving them: 

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The Raiders decided to play a five-man base front with nickel personnel and the Packers' running game wasn't as good. McCarthy had to move receiver Randall Cobb into the backfield, use receiver Jared Abbrederis in place of a tight end and keep fullback John Kuhn in the game to get the offense moving.

The Packers are used to dictating to opponents how they're going to play offense but with a receiving corps that has trouble getting open, a banged-up offensive line and a lack of speed at tight end, opponents are making the Packers adjust to them.

"

Third-down play has been an issue for Green Bay all season. Arizona's defense has allowed opponents to convert on 34.8 percent of third downs, the seventh-stingiest rate in the league, per ESPN.com.

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Drives stalling out in this game will make life incredibly tough on Green Bay's defense, as the Cardinals attack has truly blossomed into one of the most dangerous units in the league. Carson Palmer is a dark-horse MVP contender and has three great wide receivers to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Floyd has been particularly great as of late, topping the 100-yards-receiving mark in four of his past six games.

Run defenses must have thought a revitalized Chris Johnson was tough earlier this season. Turns out, rookie David Johnson is an even greater menace. The 24-year-old is coming off a phenomenal performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. He carried the ball 29 times for 187 yards and three touchdowns while adding another 42 yards in the receiving game.

Check out his blend of power and speed on this 47-yard touchdown run, per the NFL:

Green Bay sports an excellent defense, but Arizona's offense could prove overwhelming, especially in friendly confines. The Packers will need Rodgers' best efforts to win this game, as well as running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks to provide him with the balance necessary to beat an elite defense. Don't expect everything to fall in line for them. Arizona wins by a touchdown.

The Seahawks Are Good, But the Rams Aren't That Bad

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

The oddsmakers are giving Seattle a shade over two touchdowns in a home game against the division rival St. Louis Rams. At first glance, this makes complete sense.

Russell Wilson has been sublime the past five weeks—19 touchdown passes, zero interceptions—while the Rams have sputtered to yet another inconsequential season under coach Jeff Fisher. Seattle has outscored its opponents 171-69 on its current five-game win streak, scoring at least 29 points in each contest.

St. Louis has utterly capitulated to good teams as of late: Look no further than back-to-back 24-point losses to Cincinnati and Arizona in Weeks 12 and 13.

However, rookie phenom Todd Gurley was a nonentity in those games, and the Rams have since switched over to Case Keenum at quarterback and Rob Boras as offensive coordinator. Wins over Detroit and Tampa Bay have since followed, with Gurley scoring three times in those positive efforts. 

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Per ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner, the Rams have seen a significant boost under Boras:

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Under Cignetti, the Rams averaged 296.3 yards per game and 14.4 offensive points per game to go with a league-worst 24.5 percent third-down conversion rate. In the two games under Boras, the Rams have posted 318 yards per game, 22.5 offensive points per game and a 28.6 percent third-down conversion rate. Again, not a massive improvement but a noticeable uptick that's been good enough to get the Rams two victories.

"

Seattle is obviously a much better team than Detroit or Tampa Bay, but it might be without a few players who make the team so great in this week's contest. Per Seahawks.com, wide receiver Doug Baldwin, tackle Russell Okung and safety Kam Chancellor all missed practice Thursday.

The most glaring absence would be Baldwin's. He's reeled in 10 touchdowns in his past four games, and Seattle is already playing without injured tight end Jimmy Graham (not that that's hurt it so far). Head coach Pete Carroll did seem optimistic Baldwin might play Sunday.

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

“We think (he’s OK),” Carroll said, via Seahawks.com's John Boyle. “He’s going to do a little more work tomorrow. He’ll go all the way to game time, but he feels very good. But we’re still going to be slow to bring him back. He’ll do some stuff tomorrow, then we’ll take it all the way to game time on that.”

Keep in mind that Seattle will also be playing this game with a committee backfield comprised of Christine Michael, Bryce Brown and Fred Jackson. While all three are capable backs, not one of them seems to possess the game-changing ability of Marshawn Lynch or Thomas Rawls. 

Finally, the Rams earned a shock 34-31 win over Seattle in Week 1, without Gurley seeing a lick of action. Surely they deserve a bit more respect than the huge line suggests. Don't get me wrong, Seattle will win this game. Just expect the Rams to keep it within a couple of touchdowns.