Daily Fantasy Football December 23: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Loyalty isn't an option for daily fantasy football players. 

The game's quick turnaround forces gamers to constantly adapt. A previous top option is now a bust because of a tougher matchup. September superstars are now December duds, and guys stumbling upon a favorable situation deserve lineup occupancy instead.

Heading into Week 16, DraftKings contestants can't afford to wait on slumping studs. Even if they boast superior talent, some risers are poised to make a bigger impact because of volume.

Stock Up

Kamar Aiken, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($5,400)

Gail Burton/Associated Press

With no other healthy bodies to don a Baltimore Ravens uniform, Kamar Aiken is a certified point-per-reception stud.

Since Steve Smith Sr. suffered a season-ending torn Achilles, Aiken has registered 43 receptions for 531 yards and three touchdowns through seven games. He has accrued at least five receptions and 10 DraftKings points each time, averaging 16.7 fantasy points as Baltimore's top target.

That's more than Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Evans, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton or Randall Cobb have averaged this season.

While head coach John Harbaugh probably wasn't speaking from a fantasy perspective, his praise, per the team's Twitter page, still applies:

Even in ugly blowouts, Aiken stayed strong. The 26-year-old notched 90 yards against the Seattle Seahawks and reeled in a Hail Mary touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. While the latter is not repeatable, he's still a high-floor player with a great Week 16 matchup.

No team has surrendered more DraftKings points to wideouts than the Pittsburgh Steelers, whom Aiken exploited for 77 yards and a score during a Week 4 overtime win. He had Joe Flacco then, but he also competed for targets with Smith. Pittsburgh will score myriad points, which will enable Aiken to shine as a garbage-time hero.

Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants ($3,500)

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Is Rueben Randle a good wide receiver? Not particularly. Has he capitalized on being a starting wideout opposite of one of the league's premier stars? Not at all. Has he at least topped five receptions and 70 yards in a game this season? Only once.

He's also the New York Giants' No. 1 receiver for Sunday night's win-or-go-home clash with the Minnesota Vikings. The NFL officially suspended Odell Beckham Jr. for violating the league's player-safety rules. Unless he wins the appeal, a one-man offense will play its next game without that one man.

As a result, some teammates escape "No thanks" territory and warrant a look. Running back Rashad Jennings is an interesting flex play after escaping a four-back committee for 38 carries in two weeks. Shane Vereen could prove the recipient of many dump-off passes from Eli Manning. Dwayne Harris and Will Tye could receive a larger platform.

POS	Player	WK 16 Price
RB	Shane Vereen	$3,900
RB	Rashad Jennings	$3,500
WR	Rueben Randle	$3,500
WR	Dwayne Harris	$3,000
TE	Will Tye	$3,500

Randle, whose 638 receiving yards signify the team's second-most behind Beckham's 1,396, represents the safe, cash-play benefactor. He'll now experience life in Aiken's shoes as the top show in town by default, except Manning will throw him passes instead of Jimmy Clausen and Matt Schaub. 

It wouldn't be the first time Randle closed a season in style. Last year, he compiled 290 yards over New York's final two games. He has the skills to make a significant impact, but the 24-year-old has failed to consistently apply them, frequently falling in and out of head coach Tom Coughlin's favor.

Manning must redirect Beckham's 10 targets per game elsewhere. Randle, who has quietly scored four touchdowns over the last six games, is first in line to fill the void.

Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,100)

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Julius Thomas actually dodged a bullet by ditching the Denver Broncos for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Fantasy analysts rarely reach a consensus on anything, but most agreed that leaving Peyton Manning for the Jaguars would derail the tight end's value. In all fairness, they were right about him failing to net his third straight 12-touchdown campaign. 

That stat, however, was doomed to change regardless. The 27-year-old actually upgraded his surroundings, bailing on the No. 17 passing offense to join the No. 12 passing unit. Blake Bortles is one of six quarterbacks with at least 30 passing touchdowns, four of which went to Thomas over the last five games.

It seems odd to place him in the "Stock Up" section after snapping a four-game scoring streak, but he corralled six catches for 79 yards against the Atlanta Falcons. He's now more than a touchdown-or-bust tight end, and that type of player no longer profiles well at a deeper position.

This weekend, Thomas ascends into a top-five play against the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed the most DraftKings points to tight ends. According to NFL.com, they have surrendered 85 catches, 1,142 yards and 10 touchdowns to them. After another anemic showing on Monday night, keep picking on the Saints and utilize Thomas in Week 16 lineups. 

Stock Down

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots ($7,500)

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Tom Brady still leads the NFL in passing yards (4,405) and passing touchdowns (35). Although recently usurped by Cam Newton and Antonio Brown as DraftKings' top scorers, he's an elite option well worth every dollar earlier this season.

But the New England Patriots' injuries have finally caught up to him. Although effective from a real-life perspective, he has registered less than 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back games for the first time this season:

WEEK	OPP	CMP-ATT	PASS YD	TD	INT	RUSH YD	DK PTS
14	@ HOU	22-30	226	2	0	10	18.04
15	TEN	23-35	267	2	0	0	18.68

Brady hadn't tallied fewer than 25 DraftKings points in a single contest until Week 9, but he has now done so in six of New England's last seven games. During that stretch he's averaging 22.0 fantasy points per tilt, and most of the damage came against the Philadelphia Eagles.

This Sunday, Danny Amendola may join Julian Edelman on the inactive list against the New York Jets, who boast an NFL-low 55.9 opposing completion percentage. As long as Newton, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and even Bortles remain red-hot, there's no reason to pay for Brady.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets ($4,700)

Peter Morgan/Associated Press

Come on, Chris Ivory. Everyone wants you to flourish as a top-10 fantasy running back. Just let it happen.

The New York Jets running back continued his on-and-off season last weekend, following a 100-yard outing with 42 total yards against the same Dallas Cowboys who momentarily made Eddie Lacy a star again.

Ivory finished with 14 touches, his second-lowest tally of the season. Meanwhile, Bilal Powell produced 79 yards and a score on 13 touches. Since returning from an ankle injury, the pass-catching back has far eclipsed Ivory's DraftKings value:

Player	Ivory	Powell
ATT	74	25
RUSH YD	308	128
RUSH TD	1	1
REC	10	27
REC YD	47	265
REC TD	0	2
DK PPG	10.9	16.7

In order to shine, Ivory needs a heavy workload consisting of goal-line opportunities. Suddenly neither is a sure thing with Powell cutting into his snaps. Those fears amplify against the Patriots, who will likely force New York to use Powell more while playing from behind.

During their Week 7 meeting, a rolling Ivory recorded 41 yards on 17 carries. He salvaged his day with a receiving touchdown, but that play would likely now go to a healthy and effective Powell. Only seven running backs have averaged more DraftKings points per game than Ivory's 15.2 this season, but he's not even the best option on his team this weekend.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions ($7,400)

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Michael Bay couldn't even make Megatron look this bad. Calvin Johnson caught just one pass in two consecutive games. Before those duds, the usually dependable star amassed at least two receptions in all but one contest since 2011.

It's not like the Detroit Lions wideout battled Josh Norman and Richard Sherman. Getting stifled by the St. Louis Rams is somewhat understandable; they rank No. 4 in Football Outsiders' Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against No. 1 wide receivers.

That's not supposed to happen against the Saints. This is a defense allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt, a 116.5 quarterback rating and 39 passing touchdowns. Brandon Browner couldn't cover a middle-school kid in touch football without getting called for pass interference. 

In a golden opportunity to redeem himself, Johnson was targeted only once. New Orleans' futility actually hurt the superstar, as Matthew Stafford had no problem connecting with Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. The NFL's worst rushing attack entering Monday night woke up to the tune of 151 yards on 19 handoffs.

Making matters worse, DraftKings set Johnson's Week 16 price at $7,400 before his no-show. After his 16 yards against St. Louis, his price clashed to $6,900, but the site acted in anticipation of a bounce-back. He'd make a tempting buy-low gambit for $6,400, but don't pay full price for a receiver with five catches and 79 yards through December.

Fantasy scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com unless otherwise noted.

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