NFL Predictions Week 14: Upset Picks and Projections

Week 14 will have a difficult time matching the previous weekend's grand upset. It's not every day the New England Patriots lose at home to a sub-.500 team, so nobody should expect anything as bizarre this Sunday.

Maybe the Atlanta Falcons record their first victory since Oct. 25 to end the Carolina Panthers' perfect season. Perhaps the Green Bay Packers hit their nadir against Matt Cassel's Dallas Cowboys while the San Diego Chargers avenge a 33-3 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs three weeks ago.

It takes a massive leap of faith to preach one of those picks. Using a bit more reason, a rolling squad tapping into its unlimited upside can knock off a fierce division rival and Super Bowl contender. Vegas did a bang-up job setting Week 14's spreads, courtesy of Odds Shark, so let's take a deep dive into the slate's most intriguing matchup.

Away	Home	Odds	Prediction
Minnesota Vikings	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -7.5	27-17 ARI
Buffalo Bills	Philadelphia Eagles	Even	30-24 BUF
Seattle Seahawks	Baltimore Ravens	SEA -6	27-6 SEA
San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns	Even	17-16 SF
Detroit Lions	St. Louis Rams	Even	23-15 DET
Tennessee Titans	New York Jets	NYJ -7.5	28-21 NYJ
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -2.5	38-35 PIT
Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Even	23-20 IND
San Diego Chargers	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -11.5	31-20 KC
Washington Redskins	Chicago Bears	CHI -3.5	23-21 CHI
Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	CAR -8.5	30-21 CAR
New Orleans Saints	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -3.5	34-30 TB
Oakland Raiders	Denver Broncos	DEN -8.5	27-20 DEN
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	20-12 GB
New England Patriots	Houston Texans	NE -3	28-19 NE
New York Giants	Miami Dolphins	Even	31-30 NYG

Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Frank Victores/Associated Press

By beating the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend, the Cincinnati Bengals would clinch the AFC North with three weeks to spare. Although their toughest division foe represents a steep obstacle, Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis wouldn't have it any other way.

"If you're going to be AFC North champs, it's probably fitting that you have to beat them to do that," Lewis said on Monday, per the Associated Press' Joe Kay.

The Bengals are a rare postseason mainstay, inches away from clinching their fifth straight playoff bid. This year, however, they're a titan rather than a meek participant. The 10-2 Bengals, currently the AFC's No. 1 seed by virtue of a tiebreaker, could earn the best finish in franchise victory by netting three more wins. Football Outsiders ranks them first in offensive and total team efficiency.

Categorizing the defense as their weak link is a scary thought for the opposition. The Bengals have relinquished a league-low 16.3 points per contest, registering 20 takeaways and 32 sacks. In Week 8's 16-10 victory over the Steelers, they shut down their rival's fully healthy offense, picking off Ben Roethlisberger three times.

Anybody picking against the Bengals better not lean on the "They'll choke because that's what they do" argument. Those guys are from an outdated narrative Andy Dalton and Co. have erased this year.

This is simply a recognition of Pittsburgh's otherworldly offense. Ben Roethlisberger has averaged 338.4 passing yards per game, which prorates to 63 short of Peyton Manning's record-setting 5,477 yards from 2013. According to ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler, who obtained his research via ESPN Stats & Info, the quarterback's passes travel in the air for 10.7 yards before reaching his receiver, the NFL's highest average:

Rank	Player	YIA/Pass
1	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	10.7
2	Carson Palmer, ARI	10.4
3	Cam Newton, CAR	10.4
4	Tyrod Taylor, BUF	10.0

During those eight games with his starter, Antonio Brown has snagged 72 catches for 1,075 yards and seven touchdowns. Extrapolated into 16 games, he'd be on pace to break the single-season milestones for receptions and yards if not for spending four games in purgatory with Michael Vick and Landry Jones.

Don't forget DeAngelo Williams, the 32-year-old running back averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Or Martavis Bryant, who has 15 touchdowns in 18 career games. Even without Le'Veon Bell, arguably the game's top running back, the Steelers boast the AFC's top offense.

The unit has looked downright unstoppable over Pittsburgh's last four games. Roethlisberger has amassed 1,533 passing yards and 10 touchdowns, and the team has finished each bout with at least 30 points.

Yet its upcoming opponent is far tougher than the Indianapolis Colts. Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer juxtaposed the Steelers' torrent scoring stretch with the Bengals' latest defensive savvy:

Stopping the St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns, however, means little.

The Bengals' 34-31 loss to the Arizona Cardinals offers a better blueprint for Sunday's matchup. They will have to survive a shootout, which is entirely possible given Pittsburgh's No. 22-ranked defense. Yet the Cardinals proved the Bengals, like anyone in the league, are susceptible to a prolific offense loaded with weapons. Unlike Arizona, Pittsburgh also has a superb ground game.

The last meeting didn't live up to its high-scoring potential, but Roethlisberger rushed back from a lengthy absence. Meanwhile, Dalton averaged 6.1 yards per attempt and tossed two picks in a performance his critics would giddily label a "Bad Andy" day.

Those occur less often these days, infrequently enough to separate his valleys from any normal player prone to off days. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, even his best won't be enough to curtail Roethlisberger, Williams, Brown and Bryant in a major win for Pittsburgh, the team no AFC division winner wants to see escape a crowded wild-card picture.