NFL Predictions Week 12: Top Underdog Picks, Vegas Odds and Score Predictions

Don't anticipate any Thanksgiving miracles during Week 12's most lopsided NFL contests.

Of the 16 games in the league's first full slate since Week 3, three would max out the upset scale if the underdogs prevailed. The red-hot Arizona Cardinals take their explosive offense into San Francisco to face the 49ers, who lost by 40 when they last met. Look for the Super Bowl contenders to again dismantle a team holding the NFL's worst scoring margin.

The Cincinnati Bengals contain a lower floor than most 8-2 squads, and the St. Louis Rams have already conquered the Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks this season. While it's feasible, and the Rams could certainly cover a lofty spread, don't bank on Case Keenum leading a listless passing offense to victory.

The Green Bay Packers already suffered one upset to an unexpected NFC North foe, but it's highly unlikely they drop another division game at Lambeau Field. On a short week, the banged-up Chicago Bears aren't likely to even out a one-sided rivalry on Thursday night.

This doesn't mean every favorite will rise to the occasion. Those uneven tilts aren't locks, so anything can especially happen in the other 13 matchups. After dissecting the Week 12 spreads, courtesy of Odds Shark, let's examine a pair of top upset picks.

Away	Home	Spread	Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles	Detroit Lions	PHI -1	27-24 PHI
Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	CAR -1	26-20 CAR
Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	GB -9	34-23 GB
Minnesota Vikings	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -1	24-17 MIN
St. Louis Rams	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -10	27-17 CIN
New Orleans Saints	Houston Texans	HOU -3	31-24 HOU
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Indianapolis Colts	IND -3	23-16 TB
San Diego Chargers	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX -4	28-27 SD
Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs	-----	20-17 KC
Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	NYJ -3.5	23-20 NYJ
Oakland Raiders	Tennessee Titans	OAK -1	27-20 OAK
New York Giants	Washington Redskins	NYG -2.5	30-24 NYG
Arizona Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	ARI -11.5	38-13 ARI
Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -4	24-23 SEA
New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	NE -3	27-17 NE
Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns	CLE -2.5	17-15 CLE

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

As predicted last week, the underdog Indianapolis Colts knocked off the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. This isn't a setup to gloat, as Atlanta outgained Indianapolis by 99 total yards and lost star running back Devonta Freeman early to a concussion. All wins count the same, but four turnovers led the Colts to a messy triumph.

The 5-5 Colts now enter Week 12 as favorites hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who obtained their Week 11 victory in far more impressive fashion. During a 45-17 beatdown of the Philadelphia Eagles, Jameis Winston threw five touchdowns, while Doug Martin ran for 235 yards. As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, the Buccaneers hadn't enjoyed such a prolific offensive outing in 35 years:

Although the performance strayed far above their norm, the Buccaneers suddenly rank No. 9 in total offense, and only Adrian Peterson has compiled more rushing yards than Martin's 941. Indianapolis' No. 21 rushing defense was saved from a long day of Freeman—who produced a 39-yard rush before exiting—but it can't count on another break this weekend.

Without Freeman, a two-man offense becomes entirely reliant on star wide receiver Julio Jones. He did his part, registering nine catches for 160 yards, but his teammates recorded 120 yards on 31 targets. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, welcomed back Vincent Jackson last weekend. 

Julio Cortez/Associated Press/Associated Press

In his first game since Week 7, the 32-year-old wideout tallied 56 yards and a touchdown. His return gives Winston two tall targets downfield, which is particularly meaningful if Vontae Davis is shadowing Mike Evans. If the top cornerback—currently listed as day-to-day with a hamstring injury, per Colts.com's Kevin Bowen—can't suit up, the secondary is in a world of trouble.

Not only are the Colts at home, but they haven't lost a game started by 40-year-old quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. NFL.com's Michael Silver discussed them dismantling the narrative of operating as a one-man team behind injured starter Andrew Luck:

The veteran understudy has done his job, completing 65.7 percent of his mostly safe, short passes. Yet the Colts have won those three games by a combined 13 points, including an overtime victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars and last weekend's turnover-fueled success.

Indianapolis is 2-3 at home, while Tampa Bay boasts a 3-2 record on the road, so don't award the former an edge solely because of the venue. A progressing Buccaneers offense will pounce on a lacking Colts defense, which doesn't possess enough big-play prowess behind Hasselbeck to keep up.

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

Things aren't going great when you're four-point underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Following a humiliating debacle against the Kansas City Chiefs, the San Diego Chargers are rightfully tabbed to lose their seventh straight game.

For most of the losing streak, San Diego lost in excruciatingly close fashion. It dropped five consecutive games—including a loss to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau—by a combined 25 points before suffering a 33-3 beating to the Chiefs.

At 2-8 with a deep injury report, the Chargers are in No. 1-pick territory. While relinquishing 4.9 yards per carry, they have compiled 3.5 yards per rush behind underwhelming rookie Melvin Gordon. The Jaguars have ridden promising wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns to victory, but they'll lean heavier on rookie rusher T.J. Yeldon for this matchup.

Gail Burton/Associated Press/Associated Press

Picking a depleted, decaying squad traveling across the country is dangerous, but the Chargers are facing the Jaguars. The AFC South contender's (seriously) strengths lie in throwing the ball and stopping the run, so it's not built to exploit an opponent atrocious against the run that must throw with reckless abandon.

Jacksonville rates No. 25 in passing defense, allowing a 66.4 completion percentage and 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Most importantly, the Jags aren't equipped to shut down Antonio Gates, who finished with six yards against Kansas City.

According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs rank No. 2 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against opposing tight ends. Jacksonville is the second-worst rather than second-best:

Team	DVOA	Rank	YDS/GM
Chiefs	-34.2%	2	37.2
Jaguars	35.2%	31	66.3

Last weekend's sideline spat won't carry over for a duo who has worked together since Philip Rivers replaced Drew Brees in 2006. Gates dismissed any tension between them to the San Diego Union-Tribune's Michael Gehlken:

Give Rivers his top target back, and he'll rebound from a season-low 178 passing yards. Considering Blake Bortles attained one of his four game-winning drives solely because of a facemask penalty on a dead play, there's nothing to the clutch-gene narrative evolving around the young passer.