NFL Predictions Week 11: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

In the aftermath of several stunning NFL upsets and close calls, the oddsmakers have pegged many Week 11 contests as toss-up matchups.

According to Odds Shark, three games contain even betting lines as of Wednesday morning. Three home squads are also favored by three points or fewer, an indicator of more coin-flip games. After the Houston Texans' Monday-night upset over the Cincinnati Bengals, Vegas still hasn't reached a conclusion on their upcoming tilt with the New York Jets.

Of Week 11's 14 games, roughly five feature distinguishable favorites and underdogs. With so few options and little confidence in the San Francisco 49ers or Washington Redskins shocking the world, let's focus on the week's most probable upset.

Away	Home	Spread	Prediction
Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX -2.5	23-17 JAX
Denver Broncos	Chicago Bears	Even	17-16 CHI
Dallas Cowboys	Miami Dolphins	Even	27-23 DAL
Oakland Raiders	Detroit Lions	OAK -1	28-20 OAK
Indianapolis Colts	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -7	24-23 IND
St. Louis Rams	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -1	17-13 BAL
Washington Redskins	Carolina Panthers	CAR -8.5	27-17 CAR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7	26-20 PHI
New York Jets	Houston Texans	N/A	24-16 NYJ
Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	KC -2.5	31-24 KC
San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -13.5	23-9 SEA
Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Even	24-20 GB
Cincinnati Bengals	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -4	28-25 ARI
Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots	NE -7.5	30-23 NE

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Atlanta Falcons

R Brent Smith/Associated Press

In this week's showdown of "Wait, these two are both playoff contenders? Really?" the Indianapolis Colts will look to stay afloat in the putrid AFC South without Andrew Luck. They'll face the Atlanta Falcons, who lost to the 49ers with Carlos Hyde and Anquan Boldin inactive and Blaine Gabbert under center.

Despite their 4-5 record and minus-27 point differential, the disappointing Colts are tied with Houston atop the division. A suspicious 6-3, obtaining all of their victories against AFC South and NFC East opposition, the Falcons maintain a two-game cushion in the NFC wild-card standings. Given their superior record and Georgia Dome advantage, Vegas still favors them by seven points despite their Week 9 humiliation.

Those picking Indy will quickly point to its 2-0 record when Matt Hasselbeck starts. Before we get carried away, though, those victories came against the Texans and in overtime versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 40-year-old quarterback stuck to short, safe passes, averaging 6.51 yards per attempt.

But as ESPN Stats & Info noted, the wily veteran also secured the ball, which proved to be Luck's greatest bugaboo:

“I know my limitations,” Hasselbeck told the Indianapolis Star's Zak Keefer. “That might actually be a strength. But I have a lot of limitations.”

Atlanta's defense also comes with limitations, allowing a 64.9 percent opposing completion percentage. If Gabbert can play a passable game against it, Hasselbeck can manage an offense littered with talent. Expect a heavy dose of Frank Gore, who compiled a season-high 28 carries against the Denver Broncos in the team's first game after firing offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton.

After scoring 67 points over the last four games, the Falcons offense needs a decisively better showing at home against the Colts' 28th-ranked defense. While quarterback Matt Ryan has a higher completion percentage and yards per attempt inside the Georgia Dome, he has mustered a tame five touchdowns and five picks through four home games.

Venue	GP	YPG	CMP %	YPA	TD	INT
Home	4	301.25	69.6	8.14	5	5
Road	5	299.4	65.1	7.16	7	2

His stud wide receiver, Julio Jones, will also be shadowed by star cornerback Vontae Davis in a marquee matchup. That places all the pressure on running back Devonta Freeman, who fell to Earth with 12 rushing yards on as many carries against San Francisco.

Stellar returns from Jones and Freeman have occasionally failed to vault Atlanta to victory. The duo accounts for 58.2 percent of the team's total offense, so an elite adversary for Jones and deterioration from Freeman create concern for a unit otherwise relying on tight end Jacob Tamme.

This pick demonstrates a lack of faith in Atlanta rather than confidence in Indianapolis. Over their last three games, the Falcons beat the Titans by three, lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by three and fell to San Francisco. Before that, they mustered 21 points against a New Orleans Saints defense that has since made Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota and Kirk Cousins all look like peak Peyton Manning.

The Falcons are heavily favored in what should be considered another toss-up between mediocre teams. Utilizing a conservative but productive approach, look for the Colts to escape with a narrow victory.

Prediction: Colts 24, Falcons 23