Life After Brady-Manning: Will There Be a Quarterback Drought or a Renaissance?

It's the not-too-distant future, a Sunday not long after the Brady-Manning apocalypse. Al Michaels makes the call for Sunday night's much-anticipated game of the week, another clash of the NFL's reigning quarterback rivalry:

Coming up next: the kickoff of Luck-Mariota IX!

Doesn't have much of a ring to it, does it?

Up next: Dalton-Newton IV!

Really?

Stay tuned for Luck-Wilson VI!

That was easier to imagine last year than this year, just as Dalton-Newton would have made you giggle this time last year but now sounds semi-plausible.

It's hard to get too excited about any of these rivalries. But the Bradymanningpocalypse is nigh. Peyton Manning will be lucky to be in the building for what could have been meeting XVII on Sunday, let alone any others. Tom Brady talks about playing for 10 more years, but one look at Manning's 2015 season should send him to his retirement castle as soon as the old-guy ailments start to join forces in his body. Drew Brees will slip away as well, and the Ben Roethlisberger generation is aging fast.

What happens next? Will we drive around a Mad Max wasteland, fighting over decent quarterbacks instead of oil or gasoline? Is the era of great quarterbacking about to end forever?

Maybe not.

"I don't think there was ever a time when you had about eight guys, 26 years old or younger, that you felt were likely to be good quarterbacks, with a couple that I think can be really special," former Eagles general manager Joe Banner told Bleacher Report recently.

Other experts agree: Brady-Manning won't necessarily be followed by quarterback Dark Ages. It may be followed by a quarterback renaissance, even if there's no quarterback rivalry that's really Roman numeral-worthy.

The Players

Banner listed Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota atop a group of young quarterbacks with the potential to be exceptional.

"In addition to their physical skills, they have the mental capacity and the instincts for the game that separates them," he said.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The mental capacity and instincts are a big deal when seeking Brady-Manning successors. Even in their primes, neither Brady nor Manning would have come close to winning a decathlon against Luck or Cam Newton. But intangibles can be hard to project, even for insiders. Luck, like Manning, comes from an NFL family, which makes a huge difference.

"That's extremely helpful when it comes to approaching the game at every level," former Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist said. "How to win, how to lose, how it affects your family, how to be a professional on and off the field."

Mariota's football IQ has earned top marks from everyone who evaluated him.

Banner's list of promising quarterbacks 26 or younger also included Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Newton, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. Andy Dalton does not qualify because Banner cut his list off at age 26, but Banner likes him, as does Sundquist.

"I loved Andy Dalton coming out of college," Sundquist said. "Is he perfect? No. But he's a battler and a tough guy."

Run through the names listed above, and life after Brady-Manning bowls doesn't look so bad. Wilson has already won a Super Bowl. The experts shrugged off Luck's slump and injuries as just a bump in the road. Mariota already has a pair of four-touchdown games on his resume. Winston threw five touchdowns against the Eagles on Sunday. Carr and Amari Cooper are bringing vertical passing back to Oakland, while Bridgewater has managed the Vikings to a 7-3 record. Newton is rewriting his career narrative.

So why does it feel like there will be a quarterback shortage the moment Brady and Manning (and Brees and Roethlisberger) exit the stage?

"I think a few years ago, that was a valid way of thinking: There may not be a tier of next quarterbacks," Banner said. "But then the Lucks and Wilsons started emerging. After at least five guys in the last two drafts, I think the conversation is changing."

The Patience

By the end of his fifth NFL season in 2002, the 26-year-old Peyton Manning was 0-3 in playoff games, had two 20-plus interception seasons on his resume, had not yet been named a first-team All-Pro and had faced Brady twice. Brady was a third-year quarterback coming off an unexpected Super Bowl run followed by a 9-7 season. Both were clearly very good, but there was no indication that they would become, to me, the greatest rivals in professional sports history.

The hoopla and Roman numerals only came with success, repeated matchups and time.

"There have to be some early games where people get excited about the rivalry," said Sports Illustrated media expert Richard Deitsch. "It's not like you can do Mariota versus Winston, because there has to be some kind of body of work."

If fans have become increasingly impatient about quarterbacks, whether by shoveling dirt on Luck after some bad games or giving up on Newton three years ago, it's because they are taking their cues from organizations themselves.

"Are the owners patient enough nowadays?" Sundquist asked rhetorically. "In some instances, no."

Organizations that wait on a Newton or Dalton to develop for four to five years often reap the benefits, though they sometimes endure a few years of angry fans clamoring for a return to the drawing board. Young champions like Brady and Wilson are rare (and Brady was far from a finished product when he began winning Super Bowls). Manning became an All-Pro and began winning playoff games at 27. Brees went from being benched to being named All-Pro in his third through sixth seasons. Aaron Rodgers didn't take a meaningful snap until his fourth season.

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Banner believes that potentially great quarterbacks show flashes right away (Mariota's four-touchdown games are an example) and demonstrate progress that coaches can see in the film room or practice field even when there are growing pains on Sundays. It often takes until year three or four for a quarterback to acquire the feel for the game that makes him a great decision-maker and leader.

"You see Luck doing that better," Banner said. "You see Cam Newton doing that better. Despite the struggles of their offensive line, you see Wilson doing that better. As the Mariotas, Bridgewaters and Winstons of the world get into their third or fourth year, you'll see them doing it well."

Former 49ers coach Mike Singletary made a similar observation about Newton in a recent interview. "Sometimes it takes two or three years for a player to work through some of his 'stuff,'" he said. "...That's why I am excited about Cam: He has dealt with his stuff. You can see it. He's working. He's growing. He's calling out protections. He's leading."

Holding young quarterbacks up to the Brady-Manning standard is unfair, because young Brady and young Manning could not have met that standard.

We also have to look past the players themselves and look at the organizations. After all, there would be no Brady-Manning without Bill Belichick, Tony Dungy, the Patriots and the Colts.

The Franchises

Believers in the Brady-Manning apocalypse carry placards crying: "We are doomed! Today's college quarterbacks are spread-option wonders who cannot execute real NFL offenses!" (The placards are big, with small print.)

Most general managers don't subscribe to the theory that spread offenses and options are ruining society.

"They're so athletic," Sundquist said of today's quarterback prospects. "They are throwing the ball in college much more than they did 20 to 30 years ago. There's an opportunity there to get one and groom him correctly, surround him and ride him for 10 to 12 years."

Organizations, already impatient for quick turnarounds, must accommodate the modern prospect.

"It can't just be, 'This guy's going to come in and resurrect our organization.' You've gotta do other things as well," Sundquist said.

Sundquist has a list of organizations that he feels have the stability and leadership to nurture a young quarterback into a truly special player: the Packers, Steelers, Giants and Patriots top that list. Spot a trend? They all have quarterbacks over 30, still playing well, tied to long-term contracts. The teams that can find and develop great quarterbacks have already found and developed theirs. Perhaps that's why there was such a dearth of young quarterback talent a few years ago: Disorganized organizations burned through prospects who might have turned out better if supported by better coaches and teammates.

"If you are looking at who is going to rise up, don't just look at the quarterback," Sundquist said. "Look at the organization. Who's going to put pieces around that young talent they acquired?"

The Panthers and Bengals have become highly stable organizations in recent years, which is one more reason Newton and Dalton have been allowed to blossom. The Raiders look much more prepared to give Carr what he needs than they were a few years ago. Lovie Smith is not exactly a quarterback guru, but he provides a no-nonsense culture that should help Winston develop. The Seahawks don't appear to have all the answers like they did two years ago, but they are still smart and Super Bowl-tested.

Not all young quarterbacks are enjoying franchise stability. The Colts are a daytime soap opera. The Titans are led by a group of interim decision-makers. If Luck and Mariota are truly the top young prospects, as Banner suggests, their organizations owe it to themselves to do their part.

"If I were ownership there, I would ask whoever comes in, 'How are you going to maximize Marcus?'" Sundquist said of the Titans. "What are you going to do to make him what we think he can be? What kind of culture are you going to build around him? What changes have to be made? Who is going to be his right-hand mentor, the constant guy in his ear?'"

In other words, don't ask what your young quarterback can do for you. Ask what you can do for your young quarterback.

The Circumstances

There will be great quarterbacks after Brady and Manning, of course. Even if we were in an all-time quarterback drought, someone would win the Super Bowl, make the Pro Bowl, win passing titles and become a centerpiece of the NFL's hype machine. But Brady-Manning is more than Brady or Manning. It may be a long time before there's a rivalry like this one in the NFL.

Anonymous/Associated Press

"You need so many things to happen," Deitsch said. "You need them to play against each other. You generally need them in the same conference. And you need a little bit of a dichotomy in terms of who the quarterbacks are personality-wise as well."

The conference barrier essentially rules out epic rivalries between Luck and Wilson, Dalton and Newton, Carr and Bridgewater or Mariota and Winston, pairs of quarterbacks who (barring trade or realignment) will only meet every four years or in the Super Bowl.

The personality dichotomy is also a huge factor.

"The old boxing expression goes 'Styles make fights.' You need people to be stylistically different for it to be interesting to the audience," Deitsch said.

Deitsch listed examples. Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier captured the sports world's imagination with conflicting boxing styles and radically different personalities. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer became arch tennis rivals in part because of their unique styles of play. Magic Johnson versus Larry Bird brought many contrasts that audiences find compelling: inside-versus-outside, West Coast-versus-East Coast and, yes, black-versus-white.

Brady-Manning started as the ultimate underdog story of an unknown sixth-round pick versus a quarterback who was famous in high school, a "winner" with (in the old days) ordinary stats against a guy who lit up the stat sheet more than the standings.

That Rocky-versus-Apollo vibe isn't easy to find among today's young quarterbacks, though one intriguing possibility springs to mind:

Coming up next, the matchup you waited all year for: Wilson-Newton VIII!

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

Newton, like Manning, was the top pick in the draft. Wilson, like Brady, was a collegiate no-name who scrapped his way to the Super Bowl in his second season. Newton has a lot of Apollo Creed in him. Wilson is pure Rocky. Newton and Wilson have already met four times, once in the playoffs. The games are often important and usually close. Both quarterbacks are under contract for organizations that should be able to put great teams around them.

Then again, maybe we should not break out the Roman numerals just yet. Brady-Manning happened organically, which is why Deitsch doesn't believe media coverage or fascination ever went too far, even when we started treating their meetings like mini-Super Bowls.

"I think people care about this rivalry," he said. "It's one thing when you are creating controversy or a narrative; that's where the over-the-top stuff comes in. But there's a real interest in Tom Brady and Peyton Manning when they play against each other. There's a demand for information about these two quarterbacks because of their historically unique standing."

Manufacturing the next Brady-Manning just to fill a void would be taking things too far. It's better to just move past the all quarterbacks stink conversation and get excited about a new generation of potential superstars that won't slam its head into a Brady-Manning ceiling on the way to the top.

It will be more fun to watch eight exciting young quarterbacks compete in a round robin than wait for two new guys to hog all the attention, anyway.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.